UFC 241: Las Vegas
Thank you for all who read my blog last week. I picked up the hobby of breaking down fights 3 weeks ago and I enjoy doing it because I love fights. I also appreciate the feedback and will continue to do these for fights to come.
UFC Uruguay Recap
- Veronica Macedo wins to break her 3 fight losing streak. It looks like her jiu jitsu is a threat from the bottom. Excited to see her next fight.
- Rodolfo Vieira is a problem for middleweights.
- Volkan Oezdemir will be a title contender again at 205 lbs.
- Mike Perry’s nose.
Shana Dobson (-120) Sabina Mazo (+110)
Sabina Mazo is a kick boxer and the first Colombian woman to make it to the UFC. I watched her UFC debut fight against Maryna Moroz. Moroz looked really good, she switched to American Top Team before the fight and it paid off. Moroz plan for this fight was to clinch, take the fight to the ground, grind out a decision. She executed her plan and won a decision. Mazo had the reach advantage in the fight, but she was getting peppered with jabs throughout the fight causing her nose to bleed and her face to become bright red. Mazo’s skin is real pale so any damage will be noticed by the judges. Mazo didn’t show that she was very effective with her hands in the fight. Her right foot is her big weapon, she likes to kick. In the first round Moroz had success getting close, grappling and taking Mazo to the ground. I thought Mazo wasn’t very strong with her punches so Moroz got close to clinch easily. Like all kickboxers that come to the UFC her jiu jitsu off her back and wrestling is the weakness here. When she was on her back I thought she protected herself well using the body triangle, she was good at wrist control to limit the amount of punches she took on the ground, but she wasn’t a threat to stand up. She got her legs up high to threaten something but I don’t this she has any sort of offensive guard from the bottom. If you take Mazo down, she will have a hard time getting up and you will win the round. Mazo lost a 29–28 decision because she won the 3rd round. I feel like her cardio is her strength, she’s used to fighting 5 round fights in LFA as the champion and I doubt she’s made a habit of ending those fights early. In the 3rd round she started throwing a right knee when Moroz tried to get close that significantly deterred any clinch attempts. She took that opportunity to throw some kicks in kickboxing range that did pose a threat to Moroz. She did damage Moroz with a left high kick in that round. Unfortunately she needed a knockout and that was going to be tough for her, I don’t think she carries much power. Before I talk about Shana Dobson I want to give a shout out to Mark Smith, he stopped the fight when Ariel Beck was caught with a left hook and fell to the ground in a turtle position. So often refs let 2–3 unnecessary ground and pound strikes land. I appreciate when a ref doesn’t let that happen, especially to a woman. So Shana Dobson put on a display of power in her fight with Ariel Beck. Her punches were powerful and I specifically noticed her right head kick and right low kick. I thought the fight was going to end with a right head kick KO about 3 different times. Dobson is a striker, she doesn’t look to have a wrestling/grappling game but is a very good kickboxer. I did see a small cardio issue with Dobson in the Beck fight, she was starting to get fatigued in the 2nd right right before she knocked Beck out. So, after watching the Lauren Mueller fight, I decided that Dobson does not have any grappling/ jiu jitsu/wrestling game to speak of. But Dobson did show a good jab and power in her hands. She is more comfortable throwing her hands but she does have a strong right leg kick she can implement. The Mueller fight tested her cardio and she made it to the judges score card, being competitive until the bell.
Prediction
Dobson’s jab is going to cause Mazo a real problem, from the start of the fight until the end. Her pale skin is not going to help. Dobson is the better striker, she will have a severe advantage with her hands standing up. What Dobson isn’t good at is wrestling and jiu jitsu. She does not have the path to victory of takedowns and clinching the kickboxer, these women will stand and trade all fight. Mazo does have a cardio advantage, she's used to 5 round championship fights in LFC, and Dobson does have a cardio gap. I think Dobson’s jab dictates this fight. They have the same reach and Dobson has a huge advantage boxing. There is a possible path to victory for Mazo involving Dobson’s cardio gap, but what Dobson showed vs. Lauren Mueller makes me think that’s not a realistic outcome. It’s most plausible Dobson’s fatigue allows her to drop her hands and get caught with a high kick from Mazo, but this is fighting, a lot of things can happen, doesn’t mean they will. Dobson fights behind her jab to bloody Mazo in the first round and gets the KO in the 2nd round.
Betting
Dobson will touch Mazo with her jab starting in the first round and brighten up her pale skin. Dobson’s boxing advantage will be the difference in this fight. I’ll take (-130), I think those are good odds to see Dobson get the win. I will be interested in the KO odds and the 2nd round finish odds when they come out.
- Dobson wins (-120) $36 to win 30
- Dobson wins in round 2 (+1325) $10 to win $132.50
- Dobson wins by TKO/KO (+850) $10 to win $85
Kyung Ho Kang (-175) Brandon Davis (+155)
I really like Korean fighters, they never seem to have a boring fight. Boxing has, “Mexican Style” mma has, “Korean Style”. And plus I like to think it's this grass roots operation with The Korean Zombie being the head coach. Anyways, Kyung Ho Kang missed 3 years due to military service. Kang isn’t like most Korean fighters, most Korean fighters come into the UFC with weak ground games, poor wrestling, and good striking. Kang’s wrestling isn’t remarkable but his jiu jitsu is very good, he put Guido Cannetti in some sort of inverted standing triangle and choked out Teruto Ishihara. He’s still Korean, he fights Korean style. Kang wants to stand in front of you and throw hands. I have seen him get rocked in his 3 fights and I give him credit for a strong chin. He’s more of a counter puncher but he can walk you down. His reach is incredible for a 135 lbs fighter at 73 inches. I think his best attribute is his cardio. Kang lost a decision to Ricardo Ramos in a very active 3 round battle, Kang didn’t tire as the closing bell rang. He does have an affinity for a brawl, he will put himself in danger at times swinging wildly with his opponent. The best example of this is the Teruto Ishihara fight. That fight is excellent and i’d recommend watching it. Brandon Davis has a very long reach and likes to use it, his preference is to strike. He mixes in some nice, well times, leg kicks. I wasn’t impressed with his cardio in the Enrique Barzola fight. He infamously lost to Zabit due to banana split submission, but I thought he performed relatively well. When Zabit started to utilize his wrestling and grappling Davis couldn’t hang with him anymore. After the Zabit fight Davis made the decision to cut down to 135 lbs. He is a giant 135, with a 72 inch reach. Davis has had one fight at 135 lbs and it was against Randy Cost in his UFC debut. Davis kills himself to make 135 lbs, in an interview after the fight he said he needed to quit drinking and run 20 miles a day to make the weight. When a giant dude cuts weight to his limit I have 2 main questions, how is his cardio and can he take a punch. Last week I talked about the cerebral fluid being the last thing to rehydrate when guys cut too much weight, this leads to soft chins. Fortunately the fight was a back and forth slug fest. Davis is a Mississippi boy, he wants to stand in the middle and slug it out. That philosophy hasn’t changed at 135 lbs, and his chin looked fine. Davis was rocked late in the first. He grappled for a bit to recover and he recovered. The fight only lasted 2 rounds but Davis didn’t slow down. He does have a good jiu jitsu came in his back pocket but he prefers to leave it there. We are going to get an old fashioned slug fest to begin this awesome fight card.
Prediction
This is a really tough one to predict. Kang and Davis have a similar skill set, both can wrestle a little bit but wont, both have a jiu jitsu game but will only use it if they get taken down, and both have massive reaches and want to stand in the middle of the octagon and throw down. Where do they differ? I do give Kang the cardio advantage but I don’t anticipate this fight lasting long enough for the cardio to become a factor. Kang has some sharp counters, Davis likes to walk you down. Both guys have a huge weight cut, one guy is cutting weight on his trip from Korea, one guy needs to continue to stay on the wagon and run 20 miles a day. I think I am going to go with the Korean. At times, Enrique Barzola was winning a striking battle, Kung could get the best of Davis and I don’t just Davis’s weight cut, that's a lot of stuff to do to make weight, run 20 miles a day and stop your drinking habit. I wonder if he has trouble replicating those efforts this time. I’ve done this for 3 weeks, this is the hardest fight to have an opinion on where the fighters actually had tape to watch. But mark me down for the Korean.
Betting
I don’t hate betting Davis as the underdog. I am just concerned about Davis only cutting weight to 135 lbs one time. I would be more comfortable if I saw Davis a couple of times at 135 lbs. If +155 is still around and it looks like Davis had a good weight cut I wouldn’t hate it. I think one of these guys, I don’t know which one, but one of these guys is getting knocked out in this fight with a right hand. Either bet the under for round or bet both of the props for TKO/KO because one of these fighters is getting KO’d in the 2nd round.
- Kang wins by TKO/KO (+850) $10 to win $85
Hannah Cifers (-265) Jodie Esquibel (+225)
Hannah Cifers was outmatched and out classed by a bigger, stronger Maycee Barber. Maycee Barber looks to have a bright future in the 115 lbs women’s division. Hannah Cifers had a better opportunity to show her skills verse Polyana Viana. Polyana Viana was covered last week when I thought Veronica Macedo was going to beat her. Cifers walked her down for the majority of the fight. Her striking looked good, she was in a little bit of danger in Viana’s guard but she dominated that fight. Cifers is small for the 115 lbs division at 5 feet 1 inches tall and she can strike. Jodie Esquibel is also small for the division at 5 feet 1 inch tall. She didn’t show remarkable grappling skills, she also will move in and out of range and look to strike.
Prediction
Neither of these women are very impressive 115 lbs fighters. They are very similarly skilled and very similarly sized. I do think Cifers showed a higher striking skill set in the Viana fight. Cifers has the advantage on the feet and this fight will take place on the feet for 3 rounds. Hannah Cifers wins a 3 round decision.
Betting
I am not very enthusiastic about this fight or the fight odds. Cifers is a huge favorite. If you can find Cifers by decision at +100 or more, that might be a good bet. I think this fight is going to be a close fight and who knows what the California judges come up with. You could talk me into taking Esquibel by decision at (+286) but I want no part of this fight because I don’t have a good grasp on the skill of these women.
- Pass
Drakkar Klose (-200) Christos Giagos (+170)
Drakkar Klose’s performance against Lando Vennata was impressive. He has a wrestling background but he doesn’t seem to mix in takedowns as apart of his offense. He likes to stand in the center and punch with his right hand and throw leg kicks. I’m impressed by his cardio, he went 3 rounds with Vennata and looked very fresh in the 3rd round. Klose fought Bobby Green and Green was much bigger than him. This was a striking battle where both men had their moments. Klose tried implementing take downs when he found himself in grappling situations against the fence, but you can tell that’s not his nature. Klose wants to stand in the center of the octagon and hit you with his right hand and kick you in your leg with his right foot. Again, Klose’s cardio stood out in the 3rd round against Green being the difference in a 29–28 decision. Christos Giagos showed good wrestling in the Mizuto Hirota fight, his wrestling looks good enough to be a part of his offensive game plan moving forward. Giagos was effective striking Hirota from top position. He’s a wild striker looking to finish the fight from the first round. At the end of the second round Giagos was fatigued. In the 3rd round Giagos desperately shot for take downs because he was exceptionally fatigued, he was lucky to not get knocked out. His wrestling and striking from top position is taxing and he didn’t have the cardio to survive a 3rd round. He was fortunately to land take downs to kill time. This is a problem moving forward for Giagos. I’m impressed with how Giagos mixes his striking with take downs. He shoots doubles, he times take downs, he will end combinations with will a single leg, I’m really impressed with how he mixes it up. Its hard for his opponent to prepare for that. But, there is a cardio issue here, Giagos is a different fighter in the 3rd round. You can prepare for Giagos relying on his take downs in the third round to compensate for his fatigue. I didn’t see enough in the Hadzovic fight to say his cardio won’t be a huge factor heading into this Drakkar Klose bout.
Predictions
This is an interesting fight to think about the outcome. Klose has a huge cardio advantage in this fight. I really like the way Giagos sets up his take downs with his strikes, setting up his takes downs looks natural rather than a random double leg shot. I think Klose is going to find himself on his back in at least 1 of the first 2 rounds. I don’t think Giagos will be able finish Klose from top position but his takedowns are so disguised think hes going to find himself in top position. Giagos is also a viscous striker which is why his takedowns seem so effective because his striking is such a threat. Klose’s cardio will affect this fight. Klose will enter the 3rd round either 1–1 or down 2 rounds. I think his wrestling background and what he showed in the Vannata fight will be enough to keep distance in the 3rd round when Giagos shoots for desperation takedowns. Klose’s cardio will allow him to tee off on a fatigued Giagos. Klose wins this fight by a 3rd round knockout.
Betting
I feel very confident about Klose winning by KO in the 3rd round. When those odds come out I am going to be a lot on it. I also like the fight not lasting 3 rounds. Giagos is a dangerous striker and he is capable of knocking out Klose. One of the reasons why Giagos gases out is he throws punches with intent to hurt.
- Fight does not last 3 rounds (+185) $10 to win $18.50
- Klose wins in 3rd round (+1750) $30 to win $525
Manny Bermudez (-135) Casey Kenney (+115)
Case Kenney won his UFC debut against Ray Borg. It was a decision that I disagreed with, but he did win. The fight was mostly a grappling match against the cage where I thought Borg easily won the grappling/wrestling exchanges. 4 times Borg transitioned double under hooks to a double leg and sat Kenney on the ground. Kenney did take the fight on short notice and Borg missed weight. Kenney is has a background in wrestling but he was dominated in the grappling scenarios and dumped on his butt a lot by Ray Borg. One reason for the grappling advantage had by Borg is Kenney is naturally the smaller fighter. The majority of Kenney’s fights have happened at 125 lbs not 135 lbs. I went back to Kenney’s most recent LFA fight against Vincent Cachero. Kenney is a south paw with solid striking ability. He likes to use his striking to set up his takedowns. Jiu jitsu is a primary part of Kenney’s arsenal and one of the reasons why the Borg fight had so much grappling. Manny Bermudez connected with a big right hand against Davy Grant that rocked him. When Bermudez realized he was dazed his instincts were to take him down and try a triangle from top position. I just thought it was unique to see a guy’s finishing instincts be jiu jitsu. Bermudez was impressive locking in the triangle switching to arm bar and finishing with a locked in triangle. Grant lost consciousness and the ref called the fight but also allowed the back of his head to slam against the canvas, didn’t like seeing that. Bermudez missed weight for his fight against Benito Lopez by 5 lbs. Bermudez is a one dimensional fighter, he wants to grab you, take you to the ground and work his jiu jitsu which is exceptional. At some point in this fight Joe Rogan will say, “There are levels to jiu jitsu, and Bermudez is on another level” because he is.
Prediction
There are levels to the jiu jitsu game and I think Bermudez’s jiu jitsu is a level higher than Kenney’s. Kenney likes to showcase his jiu jitsu when he fights so it will be new for him to fight a man with higher level jiu jitsu. Kenney could possibly focus on his striking more in this fight and try and stay away from the ground game all together. The problem with that is Bermudez has one objective, grab a hold of you. This will be a southpaw vs orthodox match up which could pose unique striking threats for Bermudez, but I don’t think Bermudez will have a problem grabbing a hold of Kenney. Borg grappled with Kenney because he wanted to, Bermudez will get his hands on Kenney and he will dictate this fight with his grappling and jiu jitsu. Bermudez is also the bigger man which will help him with the grappling. My concern about this fight is Bermudez tends to win his fights in the 1st or 2nd round. What happens if Kenney’s black belt is good enough to take this fight to the 2nd and 3rd round, how does Bermudez’s cardio fare? I know Kenney can go 5 rounds in LFA and I haven’t seen a cardio issue on tape so I am not going to make one up, Bermudez wins this fight by submission in the 2nd round.
Betting
What really makes me like Bermudez here is his size, 72 inch reach is long for 135 lbs and Kenney is more of a 125 lbs fighter that has been taking 135 lbs fights. Borg grappling with Kenney at will, I think Bermudez’s reach helps in grappling and taking Kenney’s back. I don’t hate the odds for Bermudez here.
- Bermudez wins (-135) $20.25 to win $15
Cory Sandhagen (-210) Raphael Assuncao (+175)
Raphael Assuncao had a really good performance against Rob Font. If you want to see Assuncao at his best, watch this 3 round victory. Assuncao looks like a very patient fighter, his patience is reading his opponent’s strikes to figure out what is the best way to counter. Assuncao was very efficient with his striking and movement because he was focused on reading his opponent. Yoel Romero has this same style, but Yoel has this style for a different reason, he must keep his movement efficient or he will gas out. In the 1st round Assuncao cracked Font with a huge counter right. In the 2nd round he timed a beautiful take down. His ground game is good and took advantage of Font on the ground. Assuncao at his best is Assuncao vs Rob Font. Assuncao’s fight with Marlon Moraes didn’t last long. Assuncao was caught with a vicious right hand and never recovered. Moraes has astonishing power for 135 lbs, he was the younger, better fighter in this fight. Cory Sandhahgen is a giant for 135 lbs. His fight started off rough against Iuri Alcântara, Alcântara put him in an arm bar and extended his arm to the point where it was uncomfortable to look at. It should also be noted Alcântara had him in a triangle choke as well. So here is Sandhahgen, getting choked form a triangle and having his arm hyperextended. He refused to tap and just figured he’d deal with the arm bar and fight his way out of the triangle. He did, it was unbelievable. When he got up he dominated the fight landing vicious shots against Alcântara that should have stopped the fight in the first round. Brandon Pfannenstiel should not referee another fight in the UFC. This fight should have been stopped in the first round. This fight should have been stopped about 30 seconds prior to when it was in the 2nd round, Brandon Pfannenstiel is not a capable mma referee. Sandhahgen made short work of Mario Bautista, showcasing his striking and jiu jitsu, finishing with an arm bar. Sandhagen vs Lineker was very interesting. The difference in reach was massive. Lineker stayed out of range for the entirety of the fight. Sandhagen couldn’t use his wrestling and won a pretty comfortable decision. This fight helps bring up some questions when thinking about Sandhagen vs Assuncao.
Prediction
Fighting is a young man’s game, Assuncao is 37. A 34 year old Assuncao beat Maraes, the 36 year old Assuncao lost a rematch in the first round. I am a little nervous about Assuncao’s age. John Lineker fought the same fight Assuncao hopes to fight. Lineker showed that if you want to keep your distance against Sandhahgen you can. Assuncao will keep his distance and read Sandhahgen so he can counter him. Sandhahgen is an aggressive fighter and will lead in this dance, which could play into Assuncao’s favor. Any time a guy is gigantic I always wonder how their weight cut went and how their chin is, I can imagine a scenario where Assuncao counters Sandhangan in the 1st round and leaves him stiff as a board. In Sandhehgan’s previous fights, hes showcased his jiu jitsu. He won’t be able to showcase his jiu jitsu in this fight, I think Assuncao has the advantage on the ground in this fight. So what is going to happen? I think the age and the length of Sandhahgen are too much to overcome for Assuncao. Sandhahgen wins this fight by decision.
Betting
When I was studying this fight there were 2 bets that I kept thinking about. Those bets are Sandhehgen wins by decision and Assuncao winning inside the distance. Assuncao’s style is not judge friendly and if the fight goes 3 rounds I think Sandhehgan gets the decision. I also think Assuncao’s counter punching style avoids the knockout. The only thing stopping me from making that bet is Assuncao’s age, i’m kind of nervous. I try to not make a habit of making things up to be nervous about, what I have seen on tape shows Assuncao isn’t getting knocked out. I also think theres a real possibility that Assuncao counters Sandhehgan in the 1st or 2nd round with a knockout blow so Assuncao winning inside the distance appeals to me too. I don’t make a bet in my blog that I haven’t made in real life and I am not ready to submit these but this is what i’m thinking.
Devonte Smith (-800) Khama Worthy (+500)
Devonte Smith knocks everyone out in the 1st round, good prospect at 155 lbs. Khama Worthy is taking this fight on short notice. I haven’t found any decent tape to study Worthy. He looks to be a striker so this fight could be exciting.
Prediction
Devonte Smith knocks this guy out in the first round.
Betting
I don’t want to bet on this fight.
- Pass
Ian Henisch (-145) Derek Brunson (+125)
I saw Ian Henisch in Rochester. I put $50 on an online account to have some fun and Henisch was everyone’s underdog pick against a guy nick named “foot face” or something. He did end up winning that fight. The book on Henisch is his takedown defense is poor, hes good at getting to his feet after he is taken down, and he is dangerous on his feet with his hands. Derrick Brunson was a (3 time?) division 2 all american wrestler, he can wrestle. I didn’t like his cardio in the Elias Theodorou fight. He was outclassed in the kick boxing department against Israel Adesanya.
Prediction
There’s a couple different dynamics at play in this fight. Henisch has poor takedown defense so lets think about how Brunson could exploit that to win this fight. Each round Brunson clinches and takes Henisch to the ground where he controls him. Henisch is good at getting back up so Brunson would be forced to strike with him but focus on his wrestling to win a decision. The problem with this is I didn’t like Brunson’s cardio in his most recent fight vs Theodorou. A wrestling heavy attack is very taxing on your body and I don’t see Brunson executing that for 3 rounds. When Brunson fought Adesanya you could tell that he focused on his wrestling, his game plan was to take Adesanya down, challenge his takedown defense. It didn’t work but I liked that I saw a very focused wrestling game plan from Brunson. In the Theodorou fight I saw Brunson have a wrestling game plan as well, I also saw Brunson become fatigued and not be able to execute for 3 rounds. I think there will be a fatigue issue for Brunson in this Henisch fight. Henisch is good at getting back up from being taken down and likes getting in firefights with his hands. Here’s how I think this fight happens. Brunson is very successful taking Henisch down for the 1st round, mark round 1 to Brunson on your score sheet. Brunson fatigues in the 2nd, fails to take Henisch down and Henisch starts winning the stand up battle. In the 3rd round Henisch’s punches start to overwhelm Brunson and he wins by knockout in the 3rd round.
Betting
People have strong opinions on this fight online. I am going to wait until closer to fight night to see how the line moves. But I think I will make a play for Henisch winning in the 3rd round. Imagine betting Henisch and thinking he’s going to lose the 1st round and possibly the 2nd round hoping for a 3rd round knock out? Henisch has shown to have good cardio and excel as the waters get deep. He beat “Foot face” in Rochester by decision and his cardio was better against Cezar Ferreira. Ian Henisch wins by 3rd round knock out.
- Henisch wins in 3rd round (+1175) $10 to win $117.50
Sodiq Yusuff (-280) Gabriel Benitez (+240)
Sodiq Yusuff ended his fight with Suman Mokhtarian in the first round. The stoppage was minutely questionable but Mokhtarian looked scared. I feel like I saw him flinch in the first minute. Impressive performance from Yusuff, at the same time he didn’t show much of his mma skills because of the quick finish. I enjoyed watching Yusuff’s 3 round victory over Sheymon Moraes. Yusuff has tremendous power in his hands, hes a very dangerous fighter on his feet. He likes to use his leg kick to smash his opponent’s calf and try and knock his opponent out with his hands. He relies on his strength in grappling situations against the cage but you can tell he consciously finds under hooks. He doesn’t have much of a ground game, in the 3rd round when he knocked Moraes down he was raining shots from the full mount. Moraes gave him his back and he didn’t really know what to do so he hopped off back mount to try and stand up with Moraes. Moraes testing his cardio for 3 rounds in a grappling heavy fight, he passed the test. This Yusuff kid is a tremendous prospect. Gabriel Benitez was bitten by Jason Knight in their fight. I don’t know how that affect this fight but it needs to be mentioned. Benitez performed well against Knight. Knight has some of the best jiu jitsu I've seen in the UFC off of his back and Benitez survived that on occasion. Knight isn’t a wrestler so he had a problem getting Benitez on the ground, but there is credit to be given to Benitez for not being taken down. Benitez knew enough to get out of Knight's guard and make it a striking contest. As a southpaw he showed skills on the feet and won a striking battle. I do think there was an element that Knight looked like crap, especially in the later rounds but that isn't Benitez’s fault. Well, the Humberto Bandenay fight didn’t last long. Benitez again showed hes a capable striker by rocking Bandenay with a straight left 10 seconds into the fight. He also almost got caught with an armbar trying to finish the fight with ground and pound, his jiu jitsu is weak. It looks like he fights out of AKA, I would expect his ground game to improve.
Prediction
Sheymon Moraes is 10 times better than Benitez as a fighter and Yusuff won very convincingly, never seemed to be out of place. If a high level wrestler faced off with Yusuff I might be a little worried because I haven’t seen Yusuff on his back. But you know what? Benitez can’t wrestle, grapple, or jiu jit so this isn’t even a close fight. I have slight concerns facing a southpaw will confuse Yusuff. The leg kick he utilized against Moraes will now go after his opponent’s right leg and the defense is different. But Yusuff is knocking Benitez out in the 1st round.
Betting
I studied these fighters with the mindset, “I don’t want to bet this, it looks to be one of those mismatches and the odds aren’t great.” I was wrong, I am betting that Yusuff knocks Benitez out. Unless Benitez picked up a high level wrestling game over at AKA (and last time I checked DC and Khabib were a little busy) hes going to stand and trade with Yusuff and hes going to get knocked out in the 1st round.
- Yusuff wins by TKO/KO (+145) $30 to win $43.50
Yoel Romero (-140) Paulo Costa (+120)
Alright, let the fun begin Yoel Romero vs Paulo Costa. If you’re reading this you know how Paulo Costa fights and you’re excited for this fight. Costa wants to walk you down and smash you with his arms. He will mix in some kicks and he did put Uriah Hall in a thai clinch. Hall did shoot a double leg and put Costa down really easily, but he got up immediately. Johnny Hendricks is a wrestler and don’t recall Costa having any trouble with him. Although, I specifically remember being afraid for Hendricks when he was in there so that wasn’t a test to his takedown defense. Costa’s strength is his massive power. Yoel Romero is a 42 year old Cuban wrestler who is an unbelievable athlete. He needs to conserve his energy because he is notorious for cardio issues. His style is to lull you to sleep and explode with a knee or a left hand. Oh yea, he also has Olympic level wrestling.
Prediction
I don’t think Romero shoots for too many takedowns in this fight because he needs to conserve his energy. Anyone who tells you they know whats going to happen in this fight is wrong. But I will give you my opinion. I’m reminded of Romero’s fight with Chris Wiedman, I felt Wiedman was up 2 round to 0 heading into the 3rd because he was hitting him with a jab. Wiedman went for a takedown and ate a flying knee that separated him from his consciousness. This is from memory, I didn’t go back and watch this fight. I think Costa walks him down with punches and avoids the massive explosion that will come from Romero. 42 years old and a massive weight cut don’t sit well with me so I am going to side with age. I’ll take the younger guy to win. Costa wins by 2nd round KO.
Betting
In a fight I have no idea who is going to win i’ll side with age. 42 years old is still 42 years old. Give me the 28 year old as an underdog. If you are reading this to make betting picks don’t blindly follow this one. This one is strictly my gut and I can’t get that Chris Wiedman Yoel Romero fight out of my mind.
- Paulo Costa wins (+120) $20 to win $24
Anthony Pettis (-130) Nate Diaz (+120)
When you think Anthony Pettis you think creative, elite striker. Pettis doesn’t get credit for being a well rounded fighter. He’s choked out Charles Olivera, submitted Michael Chiesa, went 2 rounds with Tony Ferguson, and knocked out Wonderboy at 170 lbs. It looks like Pettis has found a home at 170 lbs. Nate Diaz is a boxer with an exceptional jiu jitsu game. Diaz’s chin is legendary and no one has seen him fight in t 3 years so here we go.
Predictions
I think we are looking at a stand up battle. Diaz isn’t going to take Pettis down with a double leg and Pettis wants to strike. Diaz is known for being vulnerable to leg kicks. Conor even took advantage of that in their second fight. I think Pettis Smashes Diaz’s leg from round 1 until round 3 winning a decision. Diaz has only been knocked out once in his UFC career and I don’t think time off hurt his chin. I also don’t think time off helped his cage fighting ability either. Pettis is the more active fighter and wins a decision in this fight.
Betting
The problem with betting on this fight is there are way too many unknown variables. Nate Diaz could be out of money and have no other option but to fight. No one knows what Nate Diaz will look like after a 3 round hideous. On the other hand, Anthony Pettis was losing his fight with Wonderboy before he landed that punch. I am going to pass on this one. There isn’t a need to bet this fight, I am really excited to watch the show for this one. I will add one caviet, if the casual fans start putting money on Nate Diaz I will jump in on Pettis if Pettis becomes an even money play because I do think Pettis wins this fight.
Daniel Cormier (-140) Stipe Miotic (+130)
Daniel Cormier and Stipe Miotic is an unbelievable fight. Rematch for the heavyweight title, baddest man on the planet. I’m not going to go in detail on either of these guys. If you are reading this you are deeply aware of these 2 skill sets.
Predictions
Both men came in light. DC weighed 236 lbs and Stipe weighed 230 lbs. Both men look ready for a 5 round fight. In the first fight I felt like everything was going Stipe’s way, until it wasn’t. In this fight I think Stipe is going to focus on his boxing and keeping his distance. There is a huge reach and height disparity and I think Stipe is planning on taking advantage of that. But we can’t just brush off the fact DC left Stipe flat as a board in the first round last fight, that’s a thing. But I do think Stipe uses his excellent boxing to keep his distance and touch DC all fight. Look at the Fabrico Werdum fight, Stipe didn’t want to get taken down and kept his distance. I think that same fighter shows up in Anaheim and wins a decision.
Betting
Stipe has had 1 year to sit and think about this fight. He looks like a man that has had 1 year to think about how he is going to win this fight Stipe as an underdog is a pretty good bet to me.
- Stipe wins (+130) $20 to win $26
