UFC 242: Abu Dhabi
UFC Shenzhen Recap
•The UFC is serious about expanding to China when they bring Bruce. Bruce doesn’t like to leave Vegas. But Bruce showed up, and came correct. All black with the diamond ring, diamond bracelet accessories? I’m not sure Shenzhen deserved Bruce, but they got him, and I hope they appreciated him.
- Damir Ismagulov is really good. I thought Moises was going to pose him problems with his combination of grappling, jiu jitsu, and striking. Damir had no problems, that kid is good. I think Alexander Hernandez should be next for Damir.
- Jung Da Un’s performance was unbelievable. I have no idea how he survived the 1st round from Khadis Ibragimov. But he did and he won the fight in a fight I hope he got $50,000. Shout out to the guy on Sherdog forums who pointed out Khadis Ibragimov has a cardio problem. Put a nice Un wins in round 3 prop bet and made out like a bandit.
- Su Mudaerji had his coming out party, very impressive performance.
- I did that thing where you bet both sides and guarantee yourself a profit on Hernandez vs. Jung Da Un. I won $1…I should’ve kept my bet on UN and lost like a man knowing it was a good bet. I have $11 right now I don’t deserve and I will make an $11 parlay I will most likely lose to correct my wrongs.
- Jingliang Li and Weili Zhang. Unbelievable knockouts from the two headlining Chinese fighters. If it wasn’t for Bruce going all black with diamond bracelet diamond ring accessories, they would’ve stolen the show.
- I will continue to update this blog as the fight gets closer and more prop bets become available, as there are a couple props I am very interested in.
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Khabib Nurmagomedov (-400) Dustin Poirier (+355)
We all know Khabib, I am only going to watch a couple fights of his to refresh my memory on this fight. The first is Rafael Dos Anjos. I really like RDA, saw him in Rochester, one of the greatest fighters in UFC history. I watched this fight because RDA is a Southpaw and a good striker. I want to see a young Khabib and how young Khabib handles an elite fighter like RDA. RDA threw a nasty left body kick in the 1st round, and immediately Khabib closed the distance to initiate the body lock against the fence. Might not be a coincidence Khabib shot for a clinch quickly after that left body kick. That left body kick is an option for a southpaw fighting Khabib. Any time you have a southpaw against an orthodox fighter that left body kick is lined perfectly up with the liver. I thought RDA had a lot of success against Khabib in the 1st round with his left leg kick to the body and he also caught Khabib with his left hand a couple times. Khabib didn’t shoot power doubles, he shot to clinch and drag RDA to the ground against the fence. The 2nd round belonged to Khabib, top pressuring all round, a couple punches and elbows landed. I actually thought RDA had some success with his left leg kicking. Alright, I’m going to watch the southpaws vs. Khabib. Next up is Michael Johnson. Khabib looks way bigger than Johnson as they find their distance. Michael Johnson is known as the guy that hurt Khabib with his left hand. And he did catch him with 2 punches in a row that hurt him. But the thing that really stood out for me is the inside leg kick to Khabib’s left knee. We all saw Weili Zhang utilize an inside leg kick to stifle Jessica Andrade’s stepping in to throw her left hook. I think an inside left leg kick could be effective vs. Khabib. He doesn’t shoot power double legs that you’d see from Jordan Burroughs. Khabib also doesn’t catch kicks. In the RDA fight Khabib grabbed RDA’s leg and couldn’t take him down. Khabib likes to close the distance and clinch you up against the fence. It almost makes me think it’s a slightly different style of wrestling he learned compared to American college wrestling. What I am trying to say is I like a left high kick, left inside leg kick, left body kick, any kind of left leg kick from a southpaw against Khabib. I also thought the volume of strikes Johnson threw overwhelmed Khabib in the 1st round. Johnson’s 3 inch reach advantage didn’t hurt either. After Khabib clinched with Johnson, you could tell there was a massive strength difference, Khabib was a lot bigger and stronger than Johnson. Johnson wasn’t the same fighter after the 1st round. He was fatigued, partly because of the high frequency of strikes and mostly because of the mauling on the ground. Alright, now to the McGregor fight. I have a couple takeaways from this fight. In the 1st round the wrestling exchange did not impress me. If Conor McGregor is winning a wrestling exchange with you and your thing is you’re a really good wrestler, something isn’t right. Khabib did finally end up on top in that wrestling exchange and laid on top of Conor for the 1st round, didn’t do much damage. More of the same in the 2nd round but Khabib inflicted more damage in top position. It was interesting to see Khabib lose the 3rd round. Conor actually stuffed a takedown attempt in the 3rd round. Conor isn’t good at 2 things, wrestling and cardio. And I saw Conor win a 3rd round against a tired Khabib. I also saw Conor have success with that stabbing left teep kick to the gut. I didn’t see Khabib try and catch it and go for a takedown. The 4th round was a culmination of the things Conor sucks at: wrestling, cardio, jiu jitsu. He gets choked out and Khabib takes the title. Now, let's talk about Dustin Poirier. We’ll, start with Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje because that’s an awesome fight. Not too much to say about this fight. If you want a really good breakdown of Dustin Poirier I’m going to embed a video for you to watch.
Now that you have watched a really in depth breakdown of Dustin Poirier’s skills, let’s talk about the Gaethje fight. Gaethje smashed Poirier’s leg with an inside leg kick that crippled Poirier’s right leg. Poirier lost the first 3 rounds and caught Gaethje with a left to start the 4th round, he seized his opportunity and finished the fight. Now Gaethje poked Poirier in the eye twice and the second eye poke was a vicious one. The fight was stopped and the doctors came in to check on Poirier. Herb Dean took a point from Gaethje because he warned him on the first eye poke. What went under the radar was Poirier poked Gaethje in the eye at the end of the 3rd round, and it looked like it affected Gaethje’s right eye. It might not be a coincidence that Poirier caught Gaethje with a left hand because he couldn’t see out of his right eye. Nevertheless, Poirier capitalized on the opportunity. Poirier kind of got lucky again. Alvarez was in full mount because Poirier thought it was a good idea to pull guard and go for a guillotine…twice. Marc Godard called Alvarez on a 12–6 elbow that hit Poirier’s shoulder. He reset the fighters standing up and Poirier knocked Alvarez out before the 2nd round ended. I don’t hate the call because Alvarez blatantly grabbed the fence the 1st time Poirier pulled guard and went guillotine. His 2nd foul shouldn’t get a warning. This is the 2nd fight in a row Poirier showed power in his hands from start to finish. Poirier’s cardio was tested against Max. The power was the difference in the fight but Poirier surprised a lot of people with the ability to continue for 5 rounds and be dangerous. Gaethje, Alvarez, and Max. Poirier deserves this title shot and I can’t think of a better trio of fighters to prepare him for Khabib.
Prediction
I want to start off by saying that anyone who tells you Poirier is going to beat Khabib is probably an idiot, and you shouldn’t blindly follow their gambling picks. Here’s why I think Poirier is going to beat Khabib. RDA showed a left leg kick to the body is effective against Khabib. Michael Johnson showed a left inside leg kick effectively knocks Khabib off balance. Michael Johnson also showed reach matters when fighting Khabib, Poirier has the same 3 inch reach advantage. McGregor stuffed a takedown attempt and won the 3rd round with Khabib because Khabib cuts a lot of weight and fatigues. A grappling style is very taxing style of fighting. Khabib is a mythological figure in mma, fans think he is unbeatable because they have seen performances where he dominates and he never has lost. When people become so famous things can be blown out of proportion, exaggerated. Go on an mma forum for 5 minutes and you will come away thinking, “Khabib is unbeatable.” Well, I am here to tell you, he is a man, and he is beatable. Khabib has a horrible time cutting weight, and last time I checked weight cutting doesn’t get better with age. The Conor McGregor that fought Jose Aldo I think is the best 145er to ever step into an octagon. The Conor McGregor who fought Khabib sucks. And that Conor McGregor took advantage of a tired Khabib in the 3rd round. Do you know how much better Dustin Poirier is than Conor McGregor? A lot better. Poirier’s cardio was tested in the Max Holloway fight, his will to win was tested in the Justin Gaethje fight, and he really hurt Eddie Alvarez. Dustin Poirier is going to be taken down in the first 2 rounds. He might be taken down in both of those rounds. But in that 3rd round when Khabib has a cardio gap and tries to rest, Poirier is still there with his powerful left and I hope he mixes in some inside leg kicks. That Khabib that shot for a takedown on a washed up Conor McGregor and missed, that Khabib answers the 3rd round bell in Abu Dhabi and doesn’t see a 4th round. Dustin Poirier wins by knockout in the 3rd round.
Betting
I’m not that much of an idiot, if Poirier reaches a (+400) underdog I will make a bet on him. What I am looking to do is bet on that specific scenario. It looks like Bet365 has (+2000) Poirier ends the fight in the 3rd round. I like that bet. If Khabib body doesn’t give out because of the weight cut and this fight goes his way, I think he ends the fight in the 4th round by either rear naked choke or the ref stops it to punches. But I think Khabib will also have to face the elements, this fight is basically taking place outside in Abu Dhabi. If you listen to fighters enough you will find out that it’s usually cold walking to the octagon. This will be exceptionally hot. Heat brings sweat and sweat isn’t good for diving at someones ankles to work a takedown. Good luck to all you guys that took Khabib at -500, this one might be a…sweat.
- Poirier Wins in Round 3 (+2000) $5 to win $100
- Nurmagomedov Wins in round 4 (+950) 5$ to win $45
Edson Barboza (-175) vs. Paul Felder (+155)
Edson Barboza and Paul Felder fought in Chicago, 2015. Barboza won a close 29–28 decision. There was a 5 inch reach advantage favoring Barboza. This advantage made a difference in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, where Barboza used his kicks to keep the fight at kicking range. Felder has a taekwondo background and threw a lot of kicks himself. I thought he was successful with the right lower leg kick. It seemed like he threw a lot of spinning back kicks with his right foot that missed or weren’t close. I wouldn’t have minded Felder throwing a spinning back kick with his left foot, I felt he was becoming predictable with his right foot. I guess Felder knocked someone out with a spinning back fist in his previous fight. He fell in love with that technique and had 0 success with it. Barboza was very successful with his kicks, kept the fight at kicking range for rounds 2 and 3 and won a decision. Very exciting fight to watch and should be a fun rematch. I’ve rewatched two Paul Felder fights and the first takeaway I have is, this guy is a stubborn Irishman. He kicks with Barboza and fights in the guard of the all time UFC leader in submissions. Mind you he spent like 3 minutes of the 1st round getting D’Arced in the 1st round. I don’t hate it, just an observation. And he was right, he smashed Olivera from his guard and knocked him out. Felder fought Mike Perry at 170 lbs. In the fight he throws that spinning back fist and breaks his arm in the 1st round. Incredibly compromised he loses a decision. If he had his right hand I wouldn’t have been surprised to see him win that fight against the bigger Perry. Felder used what he could and threw some elbows and his taekwondo kicks and made it a fight. Paul Felder vs. James Vick has been my favorite fight I have rewatched. Paul Felder is so intelligent. It took him 2 minutes in the first round to time James Vick’s stand up enough to perfectly time a spinning back elbow. Later in the fight Felder grapples with Vick and quickly separates. James Vick is very good in the clinch because he’s a giant and utilizes gravity basically. Felder recognizes this and doesn’t try to clinch again. In the corner when Duke Roufus was talking to him about parrying it was like an intellectual conversation. Felder attacks his calf consistently as every fighter who fights James Vick should do. At the end of the 3rd Vick comes in for a flying knee and it met with a perfectly timed spinning elbow. I thought this was a masterpiece of a performance, systematically breaking down James Vick. Barboza is famous for his switch kicks, calf kicks and any other kick of kick you can think of. Initially, I thought the Gilbert Melendez fight would have some insight into this match up. Melendez had a gameplan of keeping distance to avoid those leg kicks. I saw that and realized it’s not what Felder will do and moved on. There is a takeaway from the Khabib fight before Khabib went all Khabib on Barboza. In the first round Khabib relentlessly pressured Barboza. There is an added element when you’re facing Khabib but pressure is a key to beating Barboza. Man, Barboza is involved in some violent affairs. Paul Felder commentated the Kevin Lee fight and talked about the importance of pressuring Barboza in the first round. Felder also made a comment about Barboza shooting for a takedown as a sign of fatigue. Unfortunately Barboza, again, couldn’t keep a wrestler off of him and looked like a zombie after 5 rounds against Kevin Lee. Dan Hooker had the wrong strategy heading into the Barboza fight. He began the fight having a kickboxing match with Barboza which is a terrible idea. Gilbert Melendez kept his distance from Barboza. Kevin Lee and Khabib pressured Barboza. Somewhere in the middle of those 2 strategies isn’t the right strategy. Barboza wasn’t moving backwards, he was standing in the middle, cocked ready to kick. And he beat up Hooker. In the 1st round DC made a comment about it being a bad idea to kick box with Barboza. Paul Felder was commenting this fight and laughed and said something like, “Yea, that’s a really bad idea.” We know Felder fought Barboza and was speaking from experience. And we also know Felder really wants that rematch with Barboza because he said it after his James Vick fight. This tells me Felder recognizes he made some mistakes fighting Barboza the first time. I thought Justin Gaethje did a good job using his boxing to pressure Barboza to get the knockout.
Predictions
I think there is a path to victory here that Paul Felder will execute. Felder is both an incredibly cerebral fighter and also kind of an idiot. I mean that in the most complementary way. I’m referring to his Irish stubbornness. In their first meeting he tried to have a kickfest with Barboza. When he faced the UFC’s all time leader in submissions he insisted on fighting in his guard. The man boxed with Mike Perry. But he decided to systematically break down James Vick. Paul Felder is going to train for a gameplan and execute that gameplan in Abu Dhabi. Paul Felder trains to put a pace on Barboza that pressures him, taking away his kicking effectiveness and breaks him. Felder will have a pressure/grappling heavy attack and use his boxing more than his kicks. Of course he’ll mix in his spinning stuff and I think he knocks Barboza out in the 2nd round. Screw it, he knocks Barboza out with a spinning back fist in the 2nd round.
Betting
I love the (+155) line for Felder and I probably bet too much on it. I got $50 on the Irish Dragon. I think Felder implements clinching against the fence and uses his boxing to pressure Barboza. Pressure is the key too victory here and I think he gets it done. Barboza has been in some wars and I think his chin doesn’t hold up to the pressure in the 2nd round.
- Felder Wins (+155) $50 to win $77.50
- Felder Wins by Knockout (+380) $5 to win $19
- Felder Wins in Round 2 (+775) $5 to win $38.75
Islam Makhachev (-335) vs. Davi Ramos (+305)
Davi Ramos’ limbs are too short to be an elite striker at 155 lbs. But if you get within his range, he carries carries power. Ramos shoots a lot of double legs and likes to time his takedowns. His striking is strong enough to give him success with timed takedowns. I find he doesn’t work for single legs against the fence as a means of takedown, he much favors the double leg shot. It makes sense to me that shooting double legs is less energy taxing compared to grappling with an opponent against the fence as a means for a takedown. Ramos is a mutant on the ground. Against Nick Hein he turned a kimura from top position and took Hein’s back with it. It was one of those moments where you are shocked at what just happened and want to learn Jiu Jitsu. Anyways, you don’t want Davi Ramos on top of you. Referees have a weird habit of standing fights up when Ramos is on top position, I hope that doesn’t continue. There was a bit of a cardio issue in the Chris Gruetzemacher fight and to a lesser extent the Austin Hubbard fight. I was in Blue Cross Arena when Davi apologized for not finishing his fight and telling Paul Felder he wanted to fight Khabib. Well Davi, Khabib’s buddy Islam Makhachev will have to do. Makhachev is more willing to exchange on the feet than I thought. But, his grappling is his bread and butter. He fights southpaw because he feels it sets up his takedowns better. Makhachev doesn’t shoot many double legs, instead he likes to close the distance and grapple. Grappling against the fence he finds body locks and single legs and drags you to the ground. He tries to control your feet with his knees to stop you from climbing to your knees. They say elite Jiu Jitsu practitioners don’t allow space when they’re in top position, and you’ll see that if you watch a Davi Ramos fight. Makhachev doesn’t allow space in his grappling against the cage, which is where he is best. He’s also very good on the ground, we have a really entertaining fight.
Prediction
Ramos and Makhachev are both elite grapplers. Many times when you have two elite grapplers fight, a striking battle ensues. That may be the case here. In a stand up fight I favor Makhachev. I have seen him use his stand up more often than Ramos. Makhachev likes to be the aggressor and one way to counter aggression is shooting double legs. If you’re an mma fan you want to see what happens when Ramos shoots a double leg and finds top position against Makhachev with time on the clock. If Ramos doesn’t have success shoot a double leg and taking Makhachev down I think he’s in trouble. Makhachev’s grappling heavy style will test Ramos’ cardio and I don’t think he passes that test well enough to win the fight. There are more ways for Makhachev to win this fight than Ramos, Makhachev wins a decision.
Betting
I wouldn’t blame you if you told me you were taking Davi Ramos at (+260), he’s one of the best grapplers in the world. If he shoots a double leg and finds top position he’s a mutant on the ground. But Makhachev trains with Khabib everyday so it’s not the first time he will see an elite grappler. Ramos’ cardio makes me worried and I would rather just pass and enjoy these guys fight. I also don’t think the temperature is going to help anyone’s cardio. This fight is basically taking place outside in Abu Dhabi.
- Pass
Curtis Blaydes (-485) vs. Shamil Abdurahimov (+385)
Shamil Abdulurahimov has a nice left hand once in awhile. He knocked out Chase Sherman early, but Chase Sherman isn’t good. He’s capable of knocking any opponent with his left hand. I just struggled through the Andrei Arlovski fight, nothing exciting happened. Both fighters looked weathered and old. Arlovski took Abdurahimov down at least once with a trip. That’s not a good sign heading into a fight with Curtis Blaydes. Alright, that’s more like it. An inspiring performance against Marcin Tybura. He looked dangerous with both hands standing in front of Tybura. I hear he does have a wrestling pedigree but I haven’t seen it utilized. There was a moment in the Tybura fight where he shot for a takedown and didn’t get it. He released the double leg and landed a vicious right hand. I wouldn’t be surprised if that was used in the fight against Blaydes. Abdurahimov does have power and a wrestling pedigree that can allow him to stand all fight long. He is 38 years old and consistently weighing in at 260 lbs, that’s not a good sign for his cardio. Curtis Blaydes is a pure wrestler in the heavyweight division, which is rare. At the beginning of each round Blaydes will do a lot of fancy movements mimicking sticking, but they are faints. They’re always faints. Blaydes has no interest in engaging in a striking battle, his goal is solely to take the fight to the ground. When the fight does get to the ground, his next goal is to keep the fight on the ground. His top game is not advanced, he makes sure to stay on top and throw a couple punches. His biggest enemy will be the referee calling for more action and standing the fighters up. So far no referee has done that, but don’t be surprised if the fight is stood up in Abu Dhabi. Mark Hunt nearly put Blaydes to sleep in the first round, Blaydes can be hit while hes trying to search for a takedown. Francis Ngannou did put Blaydes to sleep in a fight where a lot of people thought Blaydes was going to win.
Predictions
Blaydes is a younger fighter and his cardio is much better than Abdurahimov’s. But here is the question, can Abdurahimov stop the take down? He’s from Dagestan, I haven’t seen it, but I have heard Abdurahimov does have wrestling credentials. I know Abdurahimov isn’t going to use his wrestling offensively, but are those credentials good enough to keep this fight on the feet? If Abdurahimov can’t keep the fight on the feet there is also the possibility the referee stands the fight up. I have another question, if a significant portion of the fight takes place on the feet is Abdurahimov’s cardio good enough to knock Blaydes out through all 3 rounds? There are a lot of questions in this fight but the most reasonable path to victory is a Blaydes decision. Blaydes avoids punches in the first round and figures out how to take Abdurahimov down. Abdurahimov gets tired and it’s more of the same for the 2nd and 3rd rounds with the takedowns coming easier and easier as Abdurahimov is fatigued.
Betting
Again, I wouldn’t blame you if you took Abdurahimov at (+280) and said, Blaydes has been hit before and I think Abdurahimov will knock him out. I wouldn’t blame you but I have too many question marks to recommend that wager. Abdurahimov shows up to fights around the 260 lbs mark. If he shows up at 245 lbs or even 250 lbs, that would be a ref flag for me and I might reconsider. Well, I am editing this post. The odds for Abdurahimov have jumped to (+385). That’s kind of absurd for a fighter with the experience of Abdurahimov. I’m throwing $10 on it.
- Abdurahimov Wins (+385) $10 to win $38.50
- Fight goes to decision (+160) $7 to win $11.20
Diego Ferreira (+210) vs Mairbek Taisumov (-250)
Diego Ferreira is one of those jiu jitsu wizards. You need to be a wizard to cut through Olivier Aubin-Mercier like he did. His striking is really strong but he doesn’t have an elite offensive wrestling game. Ferreira is not one dimensional, he will come out striking without looking to take the fight to the ground. He can be clipped and wobbled, Kyle Nelson caught him in Canada. Ferreira recovered and won the fight with a stoppage in the 2nd round from full mount. Another impressive performance for Ferreira against Rustam Khabilov. His strikes were not fight-ending but he put volume on Khabilov. Khabilov was backing up to his right looking to plant his right foot and counter. He saw Ferreira get clipped in the Kyle Nelson fight and he thought that would be his gameplan for this fight. Khabilov is a proficient wrestler and had success a couple times taking Ferreira to the ground. What stood out here is Ferreira’s jiu jitsu is that good. Ferreira either ended up in a dominant position from a scramble or he quickly stood up. I did think it was interesting that he didn’t have a grappling heavy gameplan, his coach wanted to only strike with Khabilov. Khabilov is an elite grappler himself but I thought that was interesting because in most fights I haven’t seen Ferreira offensively use his grappling. He has missed weight recently and had to pull out of a fight due to a kidney stone so maybe the taxing style of grappling doesn’t mix with his cardio. That’s just a pure speculation though. Well, Mairbek Taisumov has a right hand. He countered Felipe Silva rather effectively. Taisumov had incredible power in his right hand and really good defensive wrestling. He’s had visa issues so we haven’t seen him in awhile. Although with all the international cards, I don’t see how that would be an issue. He also popped for steroids but his suspension was reduced to 6 months after tainted supplement blah…blah…blah. So he’s in Abu Dhabi to fight Diego Ferreira.
Prediction
I haven’t seen Diego Ferreira use his grappling offensively. Taisumo has tremendous defensive wrestling and likes to exchange on the feet. Taisumov’s striking is better than Ferreira’s. Taisumov knocks Ferreria out in the 2nd round. Edit…Ferreria’s weigh in looked awful. He gets knocked out in the 1st round.
Betting
From what I have seen on tape Taisumov should win this fight. I don’t think Ferreira tries to take this fight to the ground given Taisumo’s defensive wrestling. Both fighters cut a lot of weight, one fighter could fatigue. Taisumov got caught with steroids 6 months ago and his suspension was reduced to 6 months via contaminated supplements. If he’s off the steroids how will that affect his performance? Too many question marks for me to recommend a bet. Edit…Ferreria’s weigh in looked awful. He will get knocked out in the 1st round.
- Taisumov Wins in Round 1 (+300) $5 to win $15
- Taisumov Wins by KO (+165) $15 to win $24.75
Zubaira Tukhugov (-485) vs. Lerone Murphy (+385)
We haven’t seen Zubaira Tukhugov for at least 2 years because he got caught with steroids. His most recent fight was in Brazil losing a decision to Renato Moicano. He danced around the octagon for a majority of the fight with his hands lowered hoping to counter. Moicano was the fresher fighter in the 3rd round as Tukhugov repeatedly looked at the clock. At some point after the Moicano fight he tested positive for steroids and accepted a 2 year ban. The last time Tukhugov fought was on the same card as Stipe when he won the heavyweight title against Werdum in Brazil. Tukhugov fought Phillipe Nover in 2015. Tukhugov was successful catching kicks from Nover and exploding with punches shortly after. He’s a patient fighter that likes to fire heavy handed shots with the intention of ending the fight. He does consider his spinning backfist technique as a knockout strike, you will see him throw it at least once per fight. Lerone Murphy is making his UFC debut in Abu Dhabi. He fought Nathan Thompson who tapped out to strikes due to a punch to the shoulder. It was weird, not a fighter Lerone Murphy is going to gain experience against. Murphy made quick work of Terry Doyle with a left hook. I got to see a little bit more of Murphy in his most recent fight against Manolo Scianna. He knocked him out in top position. Murphy looks to be a very raw fighter who has effective boxing. He didn’t look tremendously out of place grappling with Scianna before the finish. But Murphy hasn’t fought enough high level opponents to really have a feel of how he will perform in Abu Dhabi.
Prediction
Tukhugov has too much experience fighting to say he’s not going to win this fight. His fighting style is similar in some ways to Yoel Romero, he relaxes, hangs out at distance, tries to not exert too much energy if possible and will look for kill shots. I wish I could watch more tape on Murphy, but Tukhugov wins a decision here.
Betting
Tukhugov is coming off of a steroids suspension. If he is off the steroids, will that affect his performance? I think you’d be nuts to bet Tukhugov at (-485). But I’ll take a tiny shot at Lerone Murphy at (+385). Tukhugov is very passive and has cardio issues and (+385) is worth a little gamble so I’m interested in the fight.
- Murphy Wins (+385) $5 to win $19.25
Teemu Packalen (+190) vs. Ottman Azaitar (-230)
Teemu Packalen took a fight on short notice against Mickael Lebout. I am a big hockey guy (suffering New York Rangers fan) so I am a sucker for a Finnish guy named Teemu. Packalen is skilled on the ground. He looked to be fatigued early in the 1st round. He took the fight on 9 days notice coming off of a music festival with his friends…I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt with his cardio in his UFC debut. He will need to improve his wrestling if he wants to fight on the ground in the UFC. I was impressed with the way he finished the fight. He looked to dig deep and he was winning the striking in the 3rd round. He fought Thibault Gouti in London. He caught him with an uppercut and locked in a rear naked choke in the first minute of the fight, impressive rebound. You can tell his instinct is jiu jitsu. Marc Diakiese exposed his striking defense in less than a minute in London. Packalen has a solid ground game, but needs to improve his striking and wrestling. His striking isn’t going to cut it in the UFC and he will need to take fights consistently to the ground to have success in his career. Packalen will be welcoming Ottman Azaitar to the UFC for his UFC debut. Alright, I watched Azaitar’s last 4 fights and I think I get it. His nickname is, “The Bulldozer” and that’s what he does. He is a wild puncher and he is relentless. Ottman Azaitar vs. Danijel Kokora would make Bare Knuckle Boxing proud, Azaitar brings entertaining fights. I do like his cardio, he looked really fresh in the 3rd round of the Alejandro Pato fight. He actually finished the fight with a teep kick to the liver. Alright, so what is going to happen?
Predictions
There are a couple paths to victory in this fight for both fighters. Diakiese knocked Packalen out in the 1st round. Diakiese is a million times better of a striker than Azaitar but Azaitar does bring good hands and he is fearless. I do think there is a possibility Azaitar wins this fight by knockout. If he overwhelms Packalen with his hands it could be in the 1st round. In Azaitar’s last 5 fights he has not seen a grappler that has real skills, Packalen will test Azaitar’s wrestling defense and he will test his jiu jitsu. Defending a guillotine from Alejandro Pato is much different than having Packalen on top of you. There is a real possibility Packalen takes the fight to the ground and submits Azaitar. Initially watching Azaitar starch dudes in the 1st round of Brave CF I figured he was fighting cans and Packalen would easily submit him. But he looked fairly competent with his cardio and vicious with his hands in the Martinez fight. I think Packalen can counter Azaitar’s aggression with double legs to take the fight to the ground. Packalen has 3 UFC fights and I think that UFC experience matters, I think he submits Azaitar in this fight.
Betting
Teemu Packalen has a skill set that Azaitar has not seen before. It’s possible he overwhelms Packalen in the 1st round and knocks him out but at (+190) I’ll take my chances with the fin taking the fight to the ground and submitting Azaitar or winning a decision.
- Packalen Wins (+190) $15 to win $28.50
Sarah Moras (+125) Liana Jojua (-145)
Sarah Moras is 5–5 and her nickname is “cheesecake”. She looked good against Ashlee Evans. Evans grappled her to the ground in the 1st round but Moras looks to have a tremendous ground game from her back and snapped her arm in an arm bar. Evans is a 10th planet girl from what I remember so that’s not nothing. It looks like her grappling against the fence is weak but her ground game is impressive. Lucie Pudilova is a much better striker. Moras did have some success when she took Pudilova to the mat. She had the most success when she was attacking from guard. I think a big part of “Cheesecake’s” gameplan should be pulling guard. She doesn’t have much of an advantage in other areas. Her punches are very slow and not a threat and her cardio is poor. She needs to focus on taking her fights to the ground by either wrestling or pulling guard. It looks like Liana Jojua is a jiu jitsu specialist coming out of Russia. I am not impressed with her competition. My favorite fight of hers was against Viktoriya Shalimova. They fought in a child enclosure and Jojua ended the fight by standing up from Shalimova’s full guard, looking at her ankle, and putting her in a heel hook. Now, from my experience the harshest critiques of women’s appearance comes from my Armenian wife and her Russian friend. I couldn’t watch UFC New Jersey without 2 separate tangents on how Polyana Viana and Veronica Macedo are too pretty to be fighting. Now, the reason I mention this is because as soon as I took a look at Liana Jojua, I knew she’d score well with the “foreign judges”. Next write up I might have an independent, definitive ranking of the best looking women MMAers in the game.
Predictions
After looking at “Cheesecakes” 5–5 record I didn’t think I’d like her in this match up as much as I do. I don’t like the competition level of Liana Jojua in Russia and Sarah Moras has had, counting ultimate fighter, 10 UFC fights. She went 3 rounds with Jessica Andrade. She is also going to be bigger in this fight. And to be honest there are too many “fashion” pictures in Jojua’s Instagram. When I go to a women’s Instagram who is fighting, I want to see Gi’s, mats, black belts, an occasional night out picture, Sarah Moras is coming to fight and she wins by decision.
Betting
I think Sarah Moras wins this fight and she’s the underdog. I have horrible success with low level women’s mma, so take this for what its worth, probably nothing. But I am making a small play on Sarah Moras.
- Moras Wins $10 to win $12.50
Balel Muhammad (-360) Takashi Sato (+320)
Takashi Sato spent most of the 1st round against Ben Saunders finding his range. Saunders caught him with a nasty jab utilizing his 4 inch reach advantage. The end of the 1st Saunders found success in the clinch with knees. Sato caught Saunders with a straight left and finished the fight with vicious elbow ground and pound. I’m only going one fight deep into Sato’s Pancreas Promotions fight history and that fight is the main event of Pancreas 300: Sato Vaile. Sato again does a good job of finding his distance in the 1st round and eventually landing his left hand. He doesn't feature many kicks. I did find it interesting that when Matt Vaile was rocked with that left hand he shot for a desperation takedown and had success. It looks like Sato isn’t strong out of the clinch and isn’t a remarkable wrestler, but he is good at finding his distance and landing that left hand. Wow, Vaile clipped Sato and its Sato’s turn to shoot for the desperation single leg. I thought Vaile was going to finish Sato but for some reason he let Sato just stand up. Sato stood up and regained his consciousness. He found his left hand and finished this fight in full mount with elbows. Hell of a fight. I’ve always enjoyed watching Belal Muhammad, he puts on entertaining fights. I’m going to start by rewatching Curtis Millender vs. Belal Muhammad. I think Muhammad is a well rounded fighter and I want to see if he is going to implement his grappling against a grappling weak opponent, because I think that is what well see in Abu Dhabi. Belal was finding his boxing range in the first with success. After having success in boxing range he closed the distance at the end of the 1st round and tried to wrestle Millender to the ground on the fence with no success. In Millender’s corner after the 1st round he said he knocked Belal’s contact out and his corner replied, “Good, now he can’t see.” I always appreciate stuff like that reminding us that this is a primal, violent sport. Ariel Hawani can use his Newhouse degree all he wants to talk about UFC on ESPN, he’s still talking about dude’s who decided to fight in a cage without their shirts for a living. I think it was the Juan Adams vs. Arjan Bhullar fight where Adams’ mouth piece fell out and you can hear Bhullar’s corner scream, “His mouth piece is out, hit him in the face!!!!”. Anyways, on to the the 2nd round. Belal did shoot a double and dominate the 2nd round on the ground. It’s a reasonable strategy to wait until you establish your striking before taking the fight to the ground. If you come out of the gate and shoot doubles it’s easier to get stuffed and you’ll tax yourself trying. If you have success striking your opponent is preoccupied with not getting hit in the face to worry as much about defending the takedown. That seems to be what Belal’s strategy was entering this fight where he knew he had an advantage on the ground. Belal is a very well rounded fighter, no weaknesses. I don’t think he competes for the 170 lbs strap any time soon, but if you beat Belal, you are a contender for that strap.
Predictions
There is a lot of interest to me as to how this fight starts. Sato will have a slight 2 inch reach advantage and does seem to be effective at finding his boxing range in the 1st round. There is a very real possibility Sato catches Belal with a straight left in the 1st round. But I also don’t think Belal is getting put to sleep in the first round with a left hand. Belal went 3 rounds with Geoff Neal, I don’t think Sato puts him out. Belal will implement his grappling, especially in the later rounds and win this fight by stoppage from full mount in the 3rd round.
Betting
I don’t think Belal is caught and finished in this fight, Belal will take this fight to the ground and finish the fight in the 2nd or 3rd rounds. I wouldn’t hate a 2nd or 3rd round prop when those lines come in. (-360) is just too much for me to consider making a recommendation. I do think Belal has a substantial advantage in this fight and will win a high percentage of the time. If the odds move towards (-250) I wouldn’t hate a play on Belal. For now I will pass. Apparently, I’d rather put my money on unproven Finnish fighters and low level mma women, but the heart wants what the heart wants. Edit…I didn’t like the ground exchanges Sato had with Vaile and I think Belal will finish Sato on the ground, either by choke or ref stoppage.
- Belal Wins Inside Distance (+315) $8 to win $25.20
Zak Cummings (+100) vs. Omari Akhmedov (-120)
With Zak Cummings, what you see it what you get. He’s a rugged lefty likes to strike, mixes in some kicks. He as a wrestling background, doesn’t use it offensively but has decent wrestling defense. He showed that in the Prazeres fight. I saw him in Rochester against Trevin Giles, if i remember correctly he knocked Giles out in the 3rd round with a flying knee in a fight that was tied 1–1. Omari Akhmedov puts everything he has into wild swinging punches. He jumped up from 170 lbs to 185 lbs because he was having cardio issues cutting too much weight. It doesn’t look like Akhmedov uses his wrestling offensively, possibly because wrestling is a taxing style of fighting and he wants to use his energy winging punches. Akhmedov still has a cardio issue at 185 lbs. his 3rd round vs Marvin Vettori was about as fatigued as you can be. Vettori is a southpaw and Akhmedov is orthodox, Vettori had a lot of success landing that left kick to the body and the left knee. When you have an orthodox fighter against a southpaw, that left kick is available and its aiming at the liver. You know who else is a southpaw that throws a decent leg kick…Zak Cummings. It looks like Akhmedov had a more wrestling/grappling gameplan for the Tim Boetsch fight. He also looks in better shape. Consequently, he doesn’t look as fatigued either. Damn, I thought there was going to be an opportunity to bet Cummings wins in the 3rd round due to Akhmedov’s cardio issues. Akhmedov was running around the cage in the 3rd round, there still in a cardio issue at play, he won’t be able to avoid it given his fighting style and genetics.
Predictions
I kind of think Zak Cummings is a bad match up for Akhmedov. Hes a southpaw that likes to throw kicks. He has a wrestling background so takedown attempts are likely to use a lot of energy, incentivizing Akhmedov to not use his wrestling offensively. I do think there will be a reach advantage favoring Cummings. But, it’s in Abu Dhabi which is probably a pain in the butt for Cummings to get to and prepare for the fight. I’m flirting with the idea that Zak Cummings is going to stand in front of Akhmedov, avoid the big looping shots, stuff take down attempts, touch him with his boxing, and deliver devastating body kicks to the liver. I specifically like the idea of that left liver kick crushing Akhmedov’s gas tank. yea, I like it, Zak Cummings wins this fight by knockout in the 3rd round.
Betting
Damn, I kind of thought Zak Cummings was going to be the underdog here and I was going to take him. I don’t want to pay (-115) to bet on Zak Cummings in Abu Dhabi against Omari Akhmedov. When that 3rd round finish prop bet comes out, I will be interested in that if its (+1200) or more. I am going to keep an eye on this line and see if Cummings comes in as an underdog the closer this fight gets.
- Cummings Wins in Round 3 (+1350) $5 to win $66.25
Nordine Taleb (-120) vs. Muslim Salikhov (+110)
Nordine Taleb made short work of Danny Roberts early in the first round with a right head kick. Taleb certainly passes the eye test, and it looks like he can strike. Wow, Taleb made a catastrophic mistake against Claudio Silva. In an earlier write up I gave Claudio Silva, “mutant on the ground” status. Taleb was winning the fight, he was separating from the clinch keeping Silva at distance and winning. Silva is not the greatest wrestler so it’s difficult for him to take the fight to the ground, but he caught a right low kick from Taleb and went for it. He failed at first but immediate shot again and took Taleb down. This is not a catastrophic problem for Taleb, he spent a ton of time working on his jiu jitsu, he knew he would be on the bottom. Taleb got out, right before he stood up he thought, “Nah, I’m not going to stand up. You know what I’m going to do? I’m going to be sweet and shoot for a leg lock on Claudio Silva.” I haven’t seen a leg lock work in the UFC since Brock Lesnar tapped in his UFC debut…It didn’t work her and Taleb was promptly submitted. Taleb made a mistake, still looks like a fantastic fighter. Wow, I didn’t expect Taleb to fight going backwards against Sean Strickland, even with a couple inches of reach disparity. But I will say I thought he won the round. Whenever I see someone walk backwards in the octagon I very rarely like them to win the fight. But I do expect Taleb to win this fight from the way he looked in the first. It looked like Taleb was effective with his leg kicks, stifling Stickland’s ability to stick as effectively towards the end of the 1st round. Well, I was wrong. Strickland found his legs and caught Taleb with a long right. It didn’t look like he was going to find his legs after the 1st round but I was wrong. This is one of the stoppages I can understand why Taleb would be upset. The last punch in top position from Strickland looked like it looked worse than it was if that makes sense. Referee didn’t like a dazed fighter to take that shot and stop the fight, good refereeing. I didn’t realize Taleb was 37 years old, that’s creeping up there in age. Well, Muslim Salikhov has an impressive kick boxing history. He lost to Alex Garcia because Garcia is a good wrestler and is good on the ground. Salikhov has an impressive spinning back kick to the body. You’re nickname can’t be “King of Kung Fu” and not be a really good striker. Salikhov doesn’t have a long reach for 170 lbs and is having trouble with Ricky Rainey in the 1st round because of the reach disadvantage. Rainey took the fight on short notice. Salikhov likes the spinning stuff. He throws a spinning back fist too. Salikhov did get a knock out with a counter right but he did struggle with the reach disadvantage.
Prediction
If I am noticing Salikhov’s spinning stuff I think the people at Tristar will have a plan for it. Salikhov struggles having a smaller reach in the 170 lbs division at 70 inches. I am concerned a little bit about Taleb’s age. 37 years old is getting up there. Taleb does look to have a massive weight cut. Age and cutting weight don’t mix well. I also just feel like Salikhov has an X-factor that I can’t explain. Maybe it’s his massive kick boxing experience. Dan Hardy said he has like 80 confirmed knockouts on his record. That’s a lot of knockouts in professional fighting. But I try not to make stuff up to influence a prediction. From what I have seen on tape is Taleb will use his reach to win a striking battle. Salikhov is an extremely experienced kick boxer and that is the fight that will occur in Abu Dhabi. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Salikhov catch Taleb with a huge counter right and get the finish. The reach advantage is too much, Taleb wins this fight by decision.
Betting
Damn, these odds seem to be right on the money. Apparently, Taleb opened as a (+155) underdog. I am going to try and get these out before the betting lines open so readers could take advantage of a (+155) line on Taleb if they agree with what I am saying. As of now I am going to pass on this fight.
- Pass
Joanne Calderwood (+205) vs. Andrea Lee (-225)
Joanne Calderwood spent the 1st round on her back against Kalindra Faria. Her guard consisted mostly of elbows to the head without much of an attempt to escape. All off a sudden Calderwood slaps on a triangle with 45 seconds left and Lee ends up tapping to an armbar. Kind of an interesting fight. Ariana Lipski came out firing catching Calderwood early. Lipski survived and used her wrestling to take this fight to the mat. Calderwood’s jiu jitsu looks to be much better than Lipski’s in the 1st round. Calderwood broke this Lipski girl in the 2nd round but I think she broke before that. I don’t think this Lipski has anything to offer Calderwood after she threw punches in bunches to begin the fight. Calderwood found herself in full guard in the 3rd round. She was close to submitting Lipski multiple times. Solid performance from Calderwood. Calderwood had a gameplan of kick Katlyn Chookagian with the inside leg kick I want Poirier to land vs. Khabib. She kicked her like 20 times, a couple were with some power but mostly just tapping. Where I do think this will have dividends is when she brings one of those kicks high, Chookagian could be surprised. Twice in the 1st round Calderwood was rocked with a right hand. I feel like the judges might’ve given the round to Calderwood because of the leg kick frequency. Chookagian has more power in her punches and took round 2 convincingly. The end of the 2nd Calderwood found top position but did nothing but eat elbows and defend a submission attempt. Chookagian also started to implement some powerful leg kicks herself. In a turn of events Chookagian has a giant hematoma on her forehead heading into the 3rd round. She’ll be okay Calderwood felt her power and will keep her distance for the 3rd round. Chookagian had too much power for Calderwood, deserving victory. This Ashlee Evans-Smith is a tenth planet girl, I was surprised she didn’t try to take Andrea Lee down when she caught her kicks. I remember her fighting Veronica Macedo awhile back and in the post fight interview she says she just likes to strike so she does it. Well, she should try and take the fight to the ground once in awhile. Andrea Lee looks to be a skilled striker. There were a lot of striking exchanges in the 1st round with both women receiving and giving shots. Lee seemed to have better head movement and made Evans-Smith miss more. Evans-Smith does this stupid thing where she stands sideways. Lee smashes her in the back of the knee every time she stands that way. Lee has a wrestling heavy attack but it looks like she is aware of Evans-Smith 10th planet background. I’ll give the 1st round to Lee. It looks like Evans-Smith is suffering from the weight cut, her energy is drained. She did shoot a double and had side control on Lee and Lee quickly got to her feet. Either Lee’s jiu jitsu is elite or fatigue is a big factor for Evans-Smith. Andrea Lee is a really well rounded fighter. Her striking attacks are versatile and have power. Her wrestling and ground game is good. Solid win for her. I love Gary Copeland I just want to throw that out there. Gary Copeland refereed Andrea Lee vs. Montana De La Rosa. Lee and Rosa began the round finding their range. Lee closed distance to throw punches and Rosa countered by taking Lee to the ground. Lee quickly fought back to her feet. It looks like De La Rosa’s gameplan was to grapple with Lee. She didn’t have success, Lee fought her off and ended up taking her down at the end of the 1st round. Lee is good everywhere. She Stifled De La Rosa’s grappling attack and wore her down with her physicality, striking, and cardio. Andrea Lee is a really good 125 lbs UFC women’s fighter.
Predictions
Calderwood was effective with her left inside leg kick in the Chookagian fight. It looks like she favors her left leg with kicks and that kick can be effective against orthodox fighter. Lee is a good wrestler but didn’t look to take the fight to the ground against the 10th planet student, Evans-Smith. She won’t look to take this fight to the ground either, Calderwood has shown good jiu jitsu off of her back. Calderwood has taken down fighters with trips but isn’t a credentialed wrestler. It’s possible she takes Lee down but I don’t anticipate the trip being a monumental part of this fight. Calderwood’s attack is kick heavy. The best way to counter most kicking is a straight right to the face. Lee will use her 4 inch reach advantage touch Calderwood for 3 rounds winning a 29–28 decision.
Betting
(-230) is too much to lay on Andrea Lee even though shes one of my favorite female fighters. Joanne Calderwood is a gritty fighter and has excellent jiu jitsu, solid kicks, decent stand up, and who’s to say she doesn’t land two trips and win the fight 2–1? Or smash with the inside leg kicks and cripple Lee? Lee is a good wrestler but she could easily be tripped and have a hard time getting off of her back for a round. If you told me you thought Calderwood is a good bet at (+190) I wouldn’t argue with you and I’d also tell you to lock that in now because I think the odds won’t be as good on Calderwood closer to fight. Betting Lee in this fight would be silly after seeing Calderwood’s performance against Chookagian. I don’t hate betting Calderwood here but I am going to pass on this fight.
- Pass
Don Madge (-185) vs. Fares Ziam (+160)
Man, Don Madge’s UFC debut was nuts. Had a firefight with the (-500) favorite Te Edwards in the first 30 seconds, put Edwards in an armbar, and head kicked him for the knockout in the 2nd round. For a guy making his UFC debut as a (+500) underdog he looked really good. I saw incredible striking, awesome head movement dodging punches in the first 20 seconds, looked really good off of his back, I’m not sure how he could be more impressive. There is buzz that Magomed Mustafaev was “allegedly” flagged by USADA for steroids. So he’s off the card. Fares Ziam is taking the fight on a couple weeks notice. I wasn’t impressed with Fares Ziam most recent fight against Yassine Belhadj. It didn’t look like Belhadj was a quality opponent. I think he completely gassed in the middle of the 2nd round. It looks like Fares Ziam fatigues towards the end of the fight. His fatigue coincides with his grappling. In the 1st round he comes out judging distance and ready to strike, as he fatigues he tries to grapple and his opponent’s grappling isn’t at a level where they can take advantage of his fatigue. Unless Ziam is a grappler and I missed something, which is entirely possible, it looks like he slows down in the later rounds.
Predictions
Fares Ziam looks like a young fighter. He jumped at this opportunity to jump on a big UFC card as he should. Worst case scenario he gains valuable experience. He’s picking this fight up on a couple weeks notice. Fight camps matter. Ziam is a decent striker and may connect with Madge in the first round but his fatigue will set in if Madge doesn’t end the fight in the 1st round. Madge’s wrestling looks to be good enough to stifle a takedown attempt from Ziam and he will have an advantage on the feet. Don Madge wins this fight by a 2nd round KO.
Betting
Madge impressed everyone with his UFC debut. He showed excellent jiu jitsu from the bottom, unreal striking, head movement to avoid a big shot while landing his own, and he has good defensive wrestling. If you combine all of those positive attributes and factor in Ziam took this fight on short notice, hes 22 years old, and I always like a southpaw muay thai guy going against an orthodox fighter. That big body kick is aiming at the liver for the southpaw. There is enough on tape where I am going to take a shot on Don Madge to win. I also like Madge winning in the 2nd or 3rd rounds in this fight due to the cardio issues I’ve seen from Ziam.
- Don Madge Wins (+185) $18.50 to win $10
