UFC 245

UFC Washington D.C. Recap

• Bryce “Buck” Mitchell is my star of the show. He executed the 2nd “Twister” in UFC history and later attributed learning the “twister” from Eddie Bravo’s YouTube channel. The man might bring a UFC show to “ARKANSAS!!!!!!!” if he keeps winning. You know what’s really underrated about “Buck” Mitchell? His public speaking. I listened to him on Ariel Helwani’s MMA show detail his favorite way of eating squirrel, don’t let the accent fool you, “Buck” Mitchell is a really good public speaker. Squirrel Pot Pie might be in my future. Reebok needs to make those damn camo shorts, this kid is going to be a star. And BK, “Buck” Mitchell isn’t too hick, maybe you’re not hick enough.
• Jairzinho Rozenstruik is unreal. He KO’s Overeem with 5 seconds left in the 5th round, continuing his KO streak and saving himself from his 1st defeat. And he follows that up by calling out Francis Ngannou???!!! This is how stars are made, knockouts and calling out Francis Ngannou to a fist fight. I don’t hate Jairzinho’s chances in a potential Francis Ngannou fight, I really hope that happens.
• Dan Miragliotta got himself in a little hot water with the Ben Rothwell Stefan Struve fight. For those of you that don’t know, Stefan Struve was kicked in his presumably giant dick twice by Ben Rothwell. While he was writhing in pain and deciding if he could continue, Dan Miragliotta let him know the fight would be considered a “No Contest” if he chose to not continue. Dan also explained he was going to take a point away from Ben Rothwell for his foul. What got Dan in hot water was when he covered his microphone and let Struve know he thought Struve was winning the fight. Dan was presumably encouraging Struve to continue. Struve’s corner was also encouraging Struve to continue with the fight for the same reasons but a referee should not play the role of coach.
• Dan also is facing criticism for stopping the Overeem Jairzinho fight with 4 seconds left. Overeem’s upper lip was ripped apart, but is a cut enough to stop a fight? Overeem was winning had the last 4 seconds ticked off the clock.
• r/TheFightGuy

Kamaru Usman (-185) Colby Covington (+165)

Kamaru Usman is 6’ with a 78” reach, he fights out of Hard Knocks in Florida. Kamaru Usman has 3 attributes that make him special: Size, Wrestling, and Cardio. Usman’s goal in a fight is to pressure his opponent and find the clinch against the fence. From the clinch Usman is really good at grounding his opponent with body locks and trips. In top position Usman value position, he doesn’t go for submissions. If Usman can’t take his opponent down, he looks at the clinch as a winning position and stays there. Usman’s striking isn’t great, he has a decent right hand and does some stuff with his right leg that Elias Theodorou would be proud of. Having said that, I am impressed with Usman’s striking defense. I watch his fights and every fight is the same gameplan, avoid getting hit and find the clinch and it works. Usman doesn’t shoot open mat takedowns, he wants to wrestle from the clinch.

Strengths: Clinch Wrestling, Cardio, Size
Weaknesses: Offensive Striking

Colby Covington is 5' 11" with a 72" reach, he fights out of American Top Team. As an MMA fan I’m aware of Colby’s shtick but haven’t paid attention to it so I figured that would take a deep dive down. Colby needed to find a way to become more marketable so he turned heel, and boy did he deserve to get his ass kicked in Brazil. Unfortunately, he beat the crap out of Demian Maia and São Paulo and went on to call Brazil a dump in his octagon interview.

Everyone knows this thing is an act, but it’s an unbelievable heel turn. Attaching himself to Trump, Spoiling Star Wars movies for Star Wars fans, Shooting Instagram promos with his hands on the butts of Bikini’d girls, “Hey losers, it’s Colby” from an art perspective I can’t help myself but appreciate what he is doing. The cheap suits and constantly reading Donald Trump Jr.’s book everywhere he goes is unreal. If there are any of you who are offended over Colby’s heel turn, just realize that if you are offended, Colby wins. He isn’t the 1st and he won’t be the last to play the villain role. Floyd Mayweather played this role to perfection. Before I move on I would like to say my favorite part of researching Colby’s heel turn was when he went and saw the new Star Wars film and spoiled the Star Wars movie ending on Twitter. The thought of a big Star Wars fan having the ending of the new Star Wars movie spoiled by Colby “Chaos” Covington’s twitter account is actually pretty amusing.

Anyways…Colby was main eventing UFC New Jersey when I started this little hobby. After I finish researching Colby for this fight I am going to go back and read that to see if it matches up, I’d encourage you to do the same. Colby has tremendous cardio and his biggest attribute is the pace he puts on fighters. But when I studied his fights the thing that most impressed me is his diversity of attack. I’m not a mixed martial arts expert, but I imagine if you attack in a variety of ways, it’s better. Colby brings relentless All-American wrestling to the octagon, but his striking is so diverse. High kicks, low calf kicks, punches, spinning elbows etc. Colby mixes everything together so well, so it’s really hard to prepare for him and it makes his wrestling so much more effective. Colby winds up for a left hand, next thing you know he’s on your left leg and you’re on your butt. We talked about Colby’s cardio, and it is excellent, but Colby gets tired. RDA took him down in the 4th round. The 2nd round of the Demian Maia fight Mike Brown literally whispered, “Stop giving the advice you’re giving because Colby is tired.” The guy has unreal cardio, but fighting in a cage is exhausting, and Colby does get tired. Colby has been taken down a couple times, a judo throw in the Dong Hyun Kim fight and RDA took him down, but I haven’t seen how Colby’s is in guard. Colby gives up reach to a lot of his opponents and because of that he can be hit when he is trying to close the distance. Because Colby gives up reach he tends to fight off of his back foot when fighting a longer opponent. Inversely, Rafael Dos Anjos gave up reach to Colby and you saw a very aggressive Colby. There is scar tissue on Colby’s right eye which causes him to bleed easily, but Colby has never been knocked out in the UFC and has shown a good chin. Colby doesn’t cut a lot of weight, he isn’t a big 170 lbs fighter.

Strengths: Cardio, Wrestling, Diversity of Attack
Weakness: 72" Reach

Prediction

Usman wants to pressure Colby against the fence and use his physicality in the clinch. If these guys put on a singlet and had a college wrestling match, I’m taking Colby. But cage fighting involves a cage. Clinching against the cage is not college wrestling, and if there is an area where I have seen Colby falter, it’s trips and judo throws in the clinch against the cage. That is what Usman is best at, so the question is can Colby avoid that? Colby will need to demand Usman’s respect with his striking to avoid being backed up against the fence. Striking with volume is Colby’s calling card, the question is can Colby have success striking with Kamaru? Colby doesn’t win this fight by wrestling, Colby wins this fight having success with his high output striking.

This fight is Usman’s to lose and here’s why. The only way Colby can win this fight is if he has success with his striking. Usman’s cardio is better, his MMA wrestling is better, Usman has a massive size advantage, Colby doesn’t have power to push Usman back, Usman is position first when he finds the ground with his opponent, and wrestlers tend to not do well when they are on their back. The case for Colby winning this fight is his pace breaking Usman, specifically Colby’s high output of striking. The problem is Usman has excellent cardio and I have seen Colby tired more than I have seen Usman tired. It’s also fair to say Usman has poor knees which he documented on the JRE podcast, but Usman is honestly a better version of Colby. Usman wins a decision in this fight.

Betting

Usman is literally better everywhere except striking. Colby will need to repeat his striking output from the Lawler fight to win this fight. Usman’s MMA wrestling isn’t going to allow Colby to do that. I don’t see how Usman loses this fight,(-185) is a good bet on Usman. If you want to get cute, bet Usman winning a decision, but don’t be surprised if Usman creates space from the clinch against the cage and wings some powerful left and right hooks and finishes this fight. To be honest I’m going to root for Colby in this fight, his Shtick is unreal and I would love to see this thing continue for a Masvidal fight. But The Fight Guy only reports on what he sees and Kamaru should win this fight.

• Usman Wins (-185) $18.50 to win $10

Max Holloway (-170) Alexander Volkanovski (+150)

Max Holloway is 5'11 with a 69" reach, he fights out of Gracie Technics in Honolulu, Hawaii. Max doesn’t have tremendous KO power but he will keep touching you with his hands at 60%, death by 1000 cuts. Looks good on the judges scorecards and he’s relentless. Max’s other distinguishing attribute is his cardio, he can fight like that for days. Max is good in the clinch and has good takedown defense. If there is a critique on Max, it’s he took a lot of damage in the Poirier fight. Max is one of those guys that just seems to love fighting, brings his kid, sits him cage side, watch daddy.

Strengths: Cardio, Striking Volume, Size, Reach
Weakness: None?

Alexander Volkanovski is 5' 6" with a 71" reach, I think he fights out of City boxing in Australia. I guess he used to play Rugby and weigh like 230 lbs, now he doesn’t. Volkanovski has power in his hands. He is short for 145 lbs but has a very respectable reach. Volkanovski uses faints and leg kicks to set up his punching. Volkanovski is incredibly strong, it looks like his strength helps him get up if he’s taken down, and the guy has power in his strikes. There is an element of clinching against the fence to Volkanovski’s game but I don’t see much of a striking threat or takedown threat to his clinch. Chad “Money” Mendes hurt him a couple times in their fight, I’m not in love with his striking defense. This Ozzie is another guy that loves a good fist fight, and Max is going to give him one.

Strengths: Fainting, Kicks, Power in Hands
Weakness: Size, Striking Defense

Prediction

Max is giving up reach, but the difference in height is a real problem for Volkanovski. Volkanovski is a guy that walks you down because he believes in his power and he likes a good fist fight. Max is going to use his height and reach advantage and hit him with volume. There will be a point in this fight where Volkanovski is consistently fighting on his back foot. Between fighting on his back foot and Max’s jab consistently landing fatigue will set in. Max KO’s a fatigued Volkanovski in the later rounds. Max KO Round 4.

Betting

I got Max all day here -170 isn’t high enough, bet Max until he’s at least a -200. Max’s volume, boxing and size boils Volkanovski down to a puncher’s chance.

• Holloway Wins (-170) $17 to win $10
• Holloway Wins in Round 4 (+1675) $5 to win $83.75

Amanda Nunes (-310) Germaine De Randamie (+280)

Amanda Nunes is 5'7" with a 69" reach, she trains at American Top Team. Nunes struck down Cyborg and is now considered the best women’s fighter of all time. She’s both the 145 lbs and 135 lbs UFC champion. She has unbelievable power in her striking and is a legit black belt on the ground.

Strengths: Striking, Jiu Jitsu
Weakness: Cardio

Germain De Randamie is 5'8" with a 71" reach, she trains at American Kickboxing Academy. De Randamie is considered the best women’s kick boxer in the world. She transitioned over to MMA and has had trouble with wrestling and jiu jitsu. Training at AKA is a sign she is working on her wrestling.

Strengths: Striking
Weakness: Wrestling, Jiu Jitsu

Prediction

These women have fought before, Amanda Nunes caught a kick, took De Randamie to the ground and ended the fight. De Randamie has since critaled her kicks. She recognized they can be caught and lead to her on her back. When you think of the greatest women’s fighter of all time in her prime, you don’t think she’s going to enter into a fight with a disadvantage standing up, but I think that is exactly what is going on her. De Randamie will not be using many kicks, but will have an advantage on the feet with her boxing. Amanda Nunes will have the advantage of not worrying about being taken down so she will be able to throw more freely, but I believe De Randamie will have the advantage on the feet. This leads to the question, “How does Amanda Nunes Win?” De Randamie has shown very poor takedown defense and ground game in the past. Amanda Nunes can use her wrestling to take De Randamie to the ground to work her high level ground game. I do have a problem with that, what if De Randamie learned a little bit of takedown defense and Amanda fails to take her down? Failed takedown attempts are exhausting, Nunes is not known for her cardio or her wrestling really. I think we are going to be looking at stand up fight, Amanda Nunes will be throwing kicks and punches and De Randamie will be boxing. Nunes won a controversial split decision with Valentina Shevchenko in a stand up fight. De Randamie’s size and boxing might seriously give Nunes problems. Everyone has been telling nunes how good she is, she’s trying to get her lesbian girlfriend pregnant which can’t be easy and she’s giving up size to De Randamie. If Nunes isn’t dialed in I feel like she’s going down hard in this fight. Mark me down for De Randamie in this fight. I feel like De Randamie has success boxing Nunes and in one of the later rounds she surprises Nunes with a head kick and KO’s the Female GOAT.

Betting

I am going to look into this a little more before I make a recommendation. But if this is a stand up fight, and I have to imagine De Randamie’s takedown defense is existent after working at AKA, I like De Randamie. I will update this section before the fights start. One of the big reasons I think GDR is a good bet here is, I think Nunes believes she’s the best of all time and will strike with GDR. She just KO’d Cyborg, shes taking sweet pictures of herself in a field of goats. I don’t think that woman will want to believe she’s inferior on the feet.

Punahele Soriano (-115) vs. Oskar Piechota (-105)

Punahele Soriano is 6' tall with a 75" reach, he fights out of Xtreme Couture. Soriano is a former division 3 All American wrestler and is 6–0 in his young UFC career. Soriano received a UFC contract after his 3 round decision victory on the Contender Series. In that fight Soriano showed he likes to box and has power in his left hand as a southpaw. Wrestling isn’t Soriano’s MMA gameplan. To me, Soriano is a guy that wants to throw his hands and get in a fight. But, when Soriano fatigue in the 3rd round of that Contender Series fight he looked for the takedown, I would say out of a little desperation. Soriano will need to make significant improvements to his cardio if he wants to have success in the UFC. I haven’t noticed a remarkable ground game when the fight does find the ground.

Strengths: Power in his left hand, wrestling background.
Weaknesses: Cardio, Jiu Jitsu

Oscar Piechota is 6' with a 76" reach, he fights out of Piranha Grappling Team in Poland. Piechota is a very good grappler, he’s a threat to finish a fight whenever it’s on the ground against almost anyone. He played around with Rodolfo Vieira for 2 rounds and wasn’t overwhelmed which says something about his ground skills. In the Gerald Meerschaert fight I thought there was a pacing issue. Piechota spent a lot of energy in the 1st round winning grappling exchanges and fatigued in the 2nd. I also thought Piechota took an incredible amount of damage in that fight. I do want to say that Piechota seemed to learn from that pacing issue and showed up to the Rodolfo Vieira fight with less muscle and I didn’t see any cardio issue. The right hand of Piechota is capable of being dangerous but his bread and butter is the ground game. Piechota’s wrestling is not enough to assume he will take every nonconsenting opponent to the ground, but Piechota is a capable wrestler and good in the clinch.

Strengths: Grappling, Right Hand Punch
Weaknesses: Pacing, Striking Defense

Prediction

Soriano likes to swing his fists. He’s Hawaiian, I fell like the Hawaiians and the Koreans have adopted “Mexican Style” for MMA. I would not be surprised to see Soriano hurt Piechota with a boxing combination. Unfortunately, I think that is Soriano’s only avenue to victory. Soriano didn’t present himself as a well conditioned athlete in his Contender Series debut. Piechota will test Soriano’s grappling which I think is weak. If Soriano doesn’t hurt Piechota in the 1st round with a big left hand, Piechota’s grappling dictates this fight and test’s Soriano’s cardio. Admittedly, I haven’t taken a deep dive into how much Jiu Jitsu Soriano knows, but from what I have seen Piechota wins this fight by finding top position and wearing on Soriano’s cardio and finishing the fight with strikes in the later rounds. I’ll take Piechota by ground and pound stoppage in round 3.

Betting

I think Piechota should be a -140 favorite in this fight and he’s not. Mark me down for Piechota Wins at -105.

• Piechota Wins (-105) $10.50 to win $10