UFC 246
UFC Busan, South Korea Recap
•Frankie Edgar never had a chance. The Korean Zombie was training himself. Now, the small guy with the giant glasses is his head coach. He looks like a dork, and he 100% wears those glasses so he looks like a dork, but he is a really good coach. MMA gyms matter, MMA training matters and the small guy with the giant glasses has turned The Korean Zombie into a threat to beat Alexander Volkanovski. I love Max but give me TKZ vs. Volkanovski in Australia.
•Volkan Oezdemir won 3 fights and received a title shot against Daniel Cormier. Volkan was beaten by DC and learned a lot about MMA. Aleksandar Rakic looked excellent in 4 UFC fights. Almost the entirety of those fights Rakic was the hammer and not the nail. Volkan was going to present both good and bad moments for Rakic. Rakic lost a close fight and will return a better fighter after learning from this experience. In my opinion, Rakic is the best prospect at 205 lbs at the moment.
•I’m a Volkan guy, I thought Volkan got screwed by the judges in the Dominick Reyes fight. I haven’t let it go. The other day, my friend asked me if Dominick Reyes is good. I told him Dominick Reyes is overrated, his cardio sucks, and he should’ve lost to Volkan etc. etc. etc. He responds, “Oh…he’s my friend.” So I backtracked a bit, but the point is neither I nor Volkan have gotten over the Dominick Reyes screw job. Volkan called out Reyes for a rematch, I need to see Reyes Volkan 2.
•I was in the Blue Cross Arena for Charles Jourdain’s UFC debut. He lost to Desmond Green on short notice at 155 lbs. Green was fading in the 3rd, and Jourdain was starting to take over. I turn to the guy next to me (who wouldn’t tell his girlfriend how much money he bet on RDA) and said, “If this Canadian kid drops to 145 lbs, he could be pretty good.” Well, turns out, the kid looks pretty good at 145 lbs.
•This is what English-Korean-Brazilian-Brazilian-English-Korean-English translation looks like in all its glory.
•”The Iron Turtle” is a sweet nickname.
• I would like to clear something up that has confused me and possibly others. Is it Weili Zhang or is it Zhang Weili? I brought this up to my Chinese friend Julie. I learned that January 25th is the Chinese New Year (year of the mouse) and Chinese people introduce themselves with their last name first. When Weili introduced herself to America she was considerate of our customs, telling us to remember the name, Weili…no last name, seeking a rather informal relationship with America. Weili addressed the Shenzhen crowd as Zhang Weili. Her first name is Weili, her last name is Zhang. I think it’s up to you how you arrange them. Me personally, as a tribute to the first Chinese UFC champion, that morning I programed my Roomba, “Weili Zhang.”
•If you are reading this blog for gambling advice, that’s a reasonable thing to do. I hope you pick up some information that helps you. More importantly, I hope you enjoy Fight Night more because of reading this blog. But gambling can be a vice, don’t get lost in the sauce.
Conor McGregor (-350) Cowboy Cerrone (+300)
Conor McGregor is 5’9” with a 74” reach. He’s 31 years old and fights out of SBG in Ireland. Conor has fought in three weight classes: 145 lbs, 155 lbs, and 170 lbs. I don’t like Conor at 170 lbs: his reach is no longer special, he’s too small, carries too much weight, and finds fatigue before the 2nd round ends. But, Conor still carries power. He knocked Nate Diaz on his butt a couple times, we didn’t see Jorge do that. Conor’s best attribute is his ability to manage distance. More often than not, Conor’s distance management, speed, and timing result in a big counter left hand capable of ending the fight. Ever since Conor came over from Ireland, there have been questions about his wrestling and jiu jitsu. I liked Conor’s wrestling in the Khabib fight, I thought he won the first wrestling exchange. Khabib mauled him, but Khabib mauls everyone. At this point in Conor’s career I do not consider his wrestling and jiu jitsu an Achilles heel. You will also see Conor feature a stabbing teep kick.
I buried the lead. Conor made a ton of money and lost his desire to be great. The ability to stay great is what defines greatness. Guys like Michael Jordan, Lionel Messi, and Sidney Crosby have the unique desire to stay great. Andy Ruiz made $10 million and ate everything. The desire to stay great is unique for a reason, “It’s hard to get out of bed in the morning to go for a run when you’re sleeping in silk sheets”-Marvin Hagler. I don’t blame Conor for losing his edge, but it did happen and now he’s back. What does he look like now? We are going to find out.
Strength: Distance management, Counter Left Hand
Weakness: Cardio
Cowboy Cerrone is 6’1 with a 73” reach. He’s 36 years old and fighters visit the BMF ranch to train. The first thing I want to tell you about Cowboy Cerrone is he’s an adrenaline junkie. Fighting is a drug to Cowboy which is why I am afraid Cowboy will fight 10 more times. Cowboy is the hard working common man he claims to be. When fighters come to his ranch, before they train, he teaches them how to build stuff, takes them hunting, talks about life, that sort of thing. Budweiser made a limited edition can for this fight. On that can it says,
“I want all of the blue collar American working class people to know that I’m out there fighting for them. People ask me, ‘Why don’t you take time off?’ But the working class doesn’t take time off. They’re out there working every day. That’s what I do, too. I want them to know there is hope, and I’m out there just like they are.”-Cowboy Cerrone.
Earlier, I mentioned how money can curb people’s desire. What I find very unique about Cowboy is he comes from A LOT of money. Silver spoon fed and everything. He has a massive trust fund that he hasn’t touched. He prides himself on, “Becoming something, from something.” Now, I’m not voting for Elizabeth Warren or anything, there’s nothing wrong with being rich. The reason why some of you are shocked hearing that, is the reason why I mention it.
Alright, let’s get to Cowboy as a fighter. Cowboy’s Jiu Jitsu is sensational. His wrestling is very effective because he’s not a wrestler. When you’re not expecting the takedown, that’s when the takedown is most effective. Cowboy also brings excellent cardio to the octagon. But where Cowboy distinguishes himself from the rest of the UFC roster are his kicks. Cowboy’s head kicks are unique because he finishes them with a soccer style kick. Before his head kick reaches its destination his knee is bent at a 90 degree angle. This allows for a “snapping” dynamic right before his foot crashes into your head. Cowboy will also finish boxing combinations with kicks that you can only learn from having 50 MMA fights. Good luck finding a training partner that can replicate this
Another area where Cowboy excels is in the clinch. He’s really good at finding that Thai clinch and bringing knees up to your body. Cowboy’s boxing has not been his strength over the years but he does feature a decent jab. This means that Cowboy wants to fight in kicking range or in clinching range, he does not want to be in boxing range with Conor. Cowboy has admitted to being a slow starter, but inversely, that means he gets stronger as the fight wears on. As recently as yesterday, Cowboy talked to Brett Okamoto about how starting fast is a mental game that he can’t control, he either feels great or he doesn’t. Now, Cowboy is an adrenaline junkie, he does adrenaline junkie things like deep cave diving, dirt bike riding, rock climbing etc. Along the way Cowboy has escaped death. The closest Cowboy has come to death, well, maybe not the closest, that cave diving story is pretty unreal…
…but a dirt bike crash resulted in some of Cowboy’s intestines to be removed. Cowboy RDA 2 best demonstrates how that dirt bike crash has left Cowboy weak to the body. Cowboy has 50 MMA fights. I’d be lying if I didn’t say Cowboy looked old against Justin Gaethje. 50 MMA fights can also take a toll on a fighters chin and body. I encourage everyone enjoy the twilight of Cowboy Cerrone’s career.
Strength: Head Kick, Jiu Jitsu
Weakness: Slow Starter
Prediction
Well, let's lay it all out there. Cowboy is a slow starter. Conor spends about an hour beating up Artem Lobov in the locker room, he comes out red hot. Cowboy has great cardio, Conor has shown that he slows down at 170 lbs. I don’t buy that Conor’s cardio is going to become as much of an issue as people think. Conor’s boxing is going to dictate the pace of this fight. Conor is going to be moving forward, Cowboy is going to be walking backwards. Moving forward setting the pace is not the recipe for a fighter’s fatigue. But, Cowboy’s chances in this 5 round fight absolutely increase the longer this thing goes. And it is fair to mention in both of Conor’s 170 lbs fights, he’s slowed down by the end of the 2nd round. Cowboy will have a size advantage at 170 lbs. Specifically, Cowboy will be about 4 inches taller with the same reach. Conor’s best attribute is his counter left hand, Cowboy’s boxing is not his strength. If Cowboy throws a right hand and is countered with a left hand over the top, that could be the end of the fight. If I’m in Cowboy’s corner I’m tying his right hand behind his back until maybe the 3rd round. But, Cowboy doesn’t strike me as a big game plan guy. The one problem with curtailing Cowboy’s boxing is, Cowboy needs to have some success boxing to land his head kick. I don’t see Cowboy throwing a naked head kick and ending Conor’s night. Any time Cowboy is boxing, Conor threatens a counter left hand. Cowboy’s dirt bike accident left him with less intestines, how effective will Cowboy’s stabbing front kick be? I did think Cowboy looked old in his fight with Gaethje, but that was at 155 lbs. It’s also fair to say he fought Justin Gaethje 8 weeks after fighting Tony Ferguson. I think Cowboy might be the only fighter on the roster that would have attempted that. At 170 lbs Cowboy is a little more durable, it’s healthier on his body, will he be able to take Conor’s left hand at 170 lbs? If Cowboy decides to use his wrestling, especially early, he has a much better chance of winning this fight. Wrestling will fatigue a little power out of Conor, but there’s a problem. Cowboy has publicly stated that he isn’t going to wrestle Conor, and I believe him. Cowboy is an old school fighter, he likes to fight. I’m pretty sure we are looking at a stand up fight, especially early. And let’s not forget, Conor isn’t GDR, he can defend takedowns. Toss all of that into the blender and I think we are looking at Conor landing that left hand early and often, leading to a ground and pound stoppage inside of Round 2. But this thing gets interesting if Conor can’t get Cowboy out of there within 2 rounds.
Betting
I’m not really in love with anything here. No need to bet on this fight, just enjoy the show.
•Pass
Holly Holm (-135) Raquel Pennington (+115)
Holly Holm is 5'8" with a 69" reach, she fights out of Jackson Wink and is 38 years old. I really “embraced the grind” on this one, I watched every Holly Holm UFC fight. Holly is at her best when she has a reach advantage and she utilizes it. She’s very good at controlling distance with kicks. I specifically like her push kick that attacks her opponents knee. Jon Jones uses that technique a lot. Holly wants her opponent to attack her so she can counter punch. Because of this you will see Holly frolicking around the perimeter in an attempt to bait her opponent into a counter strike. Holly is a gym rat, she works hard, and she will not fatigue. Holly can fight well moving backwards which is a unique skill in MMA. Holly doesn’t carry power but has a really nice head kick she uses at the end of combinations. When she does win by KO, it’s going to be a headlock. I really like Holly’s ability to clinch against the fence. She controlled Cyborg in the clinch, she’s physically strong. Miesha Tate took advantage of Holly’s ground game but I haven’t really seen Holly in the ground since. It’s unfortunate that Aspen Ladd fight didn’t work out, that was really good match making. I don’t hate Holly’s takedown defense. One thing I picked up on from watching Holly’s fights is she gets hit with a lot of left hooks and left jabs from lesser strikers. Even Rhonda caught her, Tate was trying that left hook often, it’s something to look out for when Holly fights.
Holly has some red flags. When she walks out to the octagon she’s nervous, like really nervous. You will see her pace back and forth like a madwoman. Something looked especially off in the Amanda Nunes fight, she looked like she was having a legit panic attack. Her movement in the fight was different. In the Bethe Correia fight, Holly looked afraid to throw a punch. She lost 3 fights in a row prior to the Bethe fight, I’m wondering if that affected her psyche. She is recently coming off of an injured tendon in her leg that caused her to move this fight back 3 months. She’s 38 years old and doesn’t have much of an argument to fight for any title right now. Seems like a recipe for retirement, I’m wondering what Holly’s motivation is right now.
Strength: Cardio, Kicks, Physical Strength
Weakness: Age, Jiu Jitsu
Raquel Pennington is 5’7” with a 67.5” reach. She is 31 years old and fights out of Altitude MMA in Colorado. Raquel’s a boxer, her best attribute is her left jab. Because she’s a boxer she’s heavy on her lead leg and susceptible to leg kicks. She’s pretty decent at dirty boxing in the clinch against the fence, but she tends to take a lot of knees to the face from the clinch position. She has a decent ground game but she’s not a remarkable wrestler. Raquel really struggles to close the distance against longer opponents. Nothing about her fights with Amanda Nunes, GDR, or Irene Aldana says she’s comfortable being the smaller fighter. Amanda Nunes hurt Raquel to the point she told her corner she wanted out after the 4th round. Her corner wouldn’t let her quit and sent her back out for the 5th round. She was quickly finished and developed hypothyroidism after that fight.
Strength: Boxing
Weakness: Size
Prediction
Holly Holm’s maiden UFC fight was Ms. Raquel Pennington. In that fight, Holly fought long, kept her distance, circled, and kept touching Raquel. Holly lacked power but some of her head kicks kept Raquel on her toes. Raquel’s takedown attempts were futile and she was boiled down to a boxer with a reach disadvantage and a puncher's chance. Having said that, Raquel did catch Holly in the 3rd round with a punch leaving Holly happy to hear the bell.
After researching these fighters, this fight is quagmire to predict. The case for Holly Holm winning is she fights long and Raquel has trouble closing the distance against longer fighters. But Holly is 38 years old, she looked like she was having a legit panic attack in her last fight, she just pulled out of this fight 3 months ago with a ligament injury, and she doesn’t have a realistic path back to a title. What is her motivation? The case for Raquel is her left jab is her best attribute, Holly has been hit by left hands in the past, and Raquel is a lot younger at 31 years old. And on top of that Raquel is trying to figure out her newfound hypothyroidism disorder. I guess I’m looking at Holly winning by decision for this one. I’m whelmed by Raquel’s ability to close the distance against Irene Aldana. Raquel didn’t take Holly down in their first fight, I don’t see Raquel taking Holly to the ground in this fight. Holly wins by decision.
Betting
I have noticed Holly being hit by left hands, Raquel’s best attribute is her left hand. Holly is long and fights long, she should win a decision here. But nothing about this fight is clear. I can’t resist the Raquel KO Prop (+1450).
•Raquel Wins by KO (+1450)
Aleksei Oleinik (+110) Maurice Green (-130)
Aleksei Oleinik is 6’1” with an 80” reach. He’s 42 years old and hails from Russia. I thought Justin Gaethje came to kill or be killed, Aleksei Oleinik is going to kill or be killed. His arms are disproportionately long and choking people is his thing. Oleinik will use his long arms to wing wild punches and engage in a brawl. Oleinik will pull guard if he can’t take you down but he’s also a threat to choke you from the clinch against the fence. We all have that friend who maybe smokes cigarettes or is out of shape who claims to be the greatest 1 minute athlete of all time. Oleinik is the UFC version of that. At 42 years old, and shoddy knees, he only has 1 round of fighting in him before he is completely gassed. Serious cardio problem.
Strength: Choking People
Weakness: Cardio
Maurice Green is 6’7” with an 82” reach. He fights out of The Performance Compound. Green has had 3 fights in the UFC and his body looks more in shape with each fight. His main attribute is how tall he is at 6’7”. He looks like a fighter that has spent a little time in the gym and is learning how fight long. He tries to fight behind a jab and has been using more kicks. I don’t think his striking defense is great as he has been caught by all 3 opponents he has faced in the UFC.
Strength: Size
Weakness: Cage Fighting Skills
Prediction
From what I have seen on tape, Oleinik overwhelms Green with strikes and ether KO’s him or finds a choke in round 1. Maurice Green posted on Instagram, “Getting better each time I roll.” If you’re, “Getting better with each time you roll” I think you’re in trouble when Oleinik finds the clinch. But, height is an advantage in the clinch, maybe Oleinik won’t have success in the clinch. Oleinik wins by Round 1 choke. If this fight gets out of the 1st round Oleinik might be screwed.
Betting
This fight isn’t predictable. Neither fighter has any chance of competing for UFC gold, the reason why it’s on the main card is entertainment. Anything can happen between these 2. This is a sucker’s bet but it stood out when I looked at the prop odds. Green wins by decision (+900). If Oleinik doesn’t win by stoppage in round 1, I can see Green fighting behind his jab and teep kicks against a fatigued Oleinik. Again, suckers bet, I’m a sucker.
•Green Wins by Decision (+900)
Claudia Gadelha (-110) Alexa Grasso (-110)
Claudia Gadelha is 5’4 with a 63” reach. She’s 31 years old and Mark Henry is her head coach. Gadelha reminds me of Tyron Woodley. Her stand up is one dimensional, but her right hand can dictate a fight. She’s a fantastic wrestler and a threat to put every opponent on their back. And she’s pretty darn good at jiu jitsu. I feel like Claudia has 3 phases in her career: Before breast implants when she was all sassy, after her loss to Jessica Andrade prompting her to get the breast implants, and her time with Mark Henry. She may or may not have been, or is, dating Brian Ortega. I haven’t looked into it but those two, objectively, beautiful people.
I do feel like Mark Henry has made some changes to Gadelha’s game. I feel like Gadelha went to Mark Henry with a little bit of a cardio issue. More specifically I feel like she had a pacing issue. Mark Henry’s response was to focus on counter striking and pump the breaks on the frequent takedown attempts. Makes sense to me, wrestling is physically taxing, selectively level changing may leave more gas in the tank, and Gadelha has a pretty good right hand. One thing that did catch my eye in the Randa Markos fight was this sneaky left head kick out of a clinch. I also really liked this fake level change left hook she threw. Similar to that thing Crazy Al Iaquinta does when he grabs a leg and comes up for a hook.
Strength: Wrestling, Right Hand, Jiu Jitsu
Weakness: Cardio
Alexa Grasso is 5’5 with a 65” reach. She’s 26 and fights out of Mexico. Grasso has really fast hands, boxing is her best attribute and speed equals power. Takedown defense has been her Achilles heel. Grasso doesn’t want her kicks to be caught and have her end up on her back. When she faces a wrestler she is reduced to a pure boxer. When she is on her back she’s a capable jiu jitsu player. Her legs are very flexible and she’s good at pushing her opponent off of her. She also likes threatening arm bars and triangles. Cardio is a strength of Grasso’s. She trains in Mexico, I’m sure she trains at altitude, and she is very capable of breaking her opponent with pace. When she does break her opponent with her pace it’s usually because of high volume of strikes, both kicking and boxing. Against a wrestler she doesn’t have the kicking luxury. In her last fight, Carla Esparza punched her in the face a couple times, Grasso can be hit with a good right hand, especially a counter right hand.
Strength: Boxing, Cardio
Weakness: Takedown Defense
Prediction
Let’s start by looking at strength weakness relationships between the two fighters. Gadelha is very good at level changing and taking her opponents down. Her striking is very effective which presents a dual threat for her opponents. Grasso hasn’t shown that she can consistently stop a takedown. I don’t see how Grasso isn’t on her back at least once in this fight. But I also don’t see Gadelha spamming takedowns due to her cardio restraints. When she does find the ground in this fight, I believe Gadelha’s top game is strong enough to cement dominant position to win the round. Grasso’s biggest strength is her cardio, I believe Gadelha is working on overcoming cardio issues. Carla Esparza did have success with counter right hands against Grasso in Mexico City. I believe Gadelha will also have success with the counter striking. Gadelha will also have the luxury of not being burdened by a level change threat. Now, I don’t see why Grasso doesn’t have success with her boxing. She will be boiled down to a pure boxer in this fight because throwing leg kicks presents too much of a liability. The BIG question I have for this fight is, will Claudia Gadelha become fatigued and how much will that have a factor in this fight? It’s hard for me to believe Grasso’s cardio advantage doesn’t win round 3. In a one round fight, Gadelha wins. In mixed martial arts its an advantage if you know more of the stuff, Gadelha knows more of the stuff. But how much will her cardio limit her in this fight? I’ve decided that Mark Henry should be able to take Claudia Gadelha’s skill set and equip her with the ability to win this fight. I see Gadelha pacing herself in this fight and because of it, not threatening a KO. She wins by decision.
If Gadelha loses this fight she should retire. There won’t be a reasonable path for her to get the title and from a 10,000 foot view it seems like she’s too good looking to get punched in the face for a living. When Veronica Macedo was fighting Polyana Viana, my wife and her fellow foreign friend were whooping in Russian about both women being too good looking to be fighting. Foreign women are the most critical when it comes to breaking down another females looks. But that’s for another day.
Betting
This is a 50/50 fight. If either woman becomes any sort of underdog bet that woman. I am really interested to see how this fight plays out.
•Pass
Anthony Pettis (+200) Diego Ferreira (-230)
Anthony Pettis is 5’10” with a 72.5” reach. He’s 32 years old and fights out of Roufusport in Milwaukee. I didn’t realize A. Pettis’ jiu jitsu was so good. His takedown defense isn’t great though. When I think of A. Pettis I think of that “Showtime Kick” off the cage. The “Showtime Kick” transcended pop culture. I wasn’t a fan of MMA at the time and I was aware of that KO. Unfortunately, it looks like “Showtime” Pettis is a thing of the past. Between USADA and age creeping in, A. Pettis hasn't looked great in his recent fights. Boxers that bring pressure cause problems because A. Pettis can’t throw his kicks moving backwards. Recently, I’ve noticed A. Pettis fatigue in fights. I have also noticed injuries: Broke his ribs in the Dustin Poirier fight, broke his hand in the Tony Ferguson fight, broke his foot in the Nate Diaz fight. Fatigue and injuries, that’s not what you want. Hopefully A. Pettis turns it around.
Strength: Kicking, Jiu Jitsu
Weakness: Cardio, Takedown Defense, Pressure
Diego Ferreira is 5'9" with a 74" reach. He’s 34 years old and he fights out of Fortis MMA. A couple of years ago USADA caught Diego with steroids and was given a 17-month suspension. Ironically, Diego came back from his steroid suspension better than ever. Diego is one of those jiu jitsu wizards. Unfortunately, he only uses his jiu jitsu as a deterrent for fighters trying to take him down. But, jiu-jitsu allows Diego to throw his strikes freely. Similar to Tony Ferguson, if you level change on Diego he will roll with it and try and land on top. If he doesn’t succeed at finding top position, Diego has zero problem working from the bottom. From what I have seen on tape, Diego is a pressure boxer. Jab-jab-right hand. Walk forward. Mix in a leg kick. Repeat. I’m impressed with Diego’s cardio. His last fight was against Mairbek Taisumov in Abu Dhabi. They built that arena specifically for the Khabib fight and screwed up when it came to installing the air conditioning. With the humidity, it was 130°F. Somehow, Diego did not show signs of fatigue. I really like Diego’s pressure but he doesn’t have one shot KO power. It’s worth noting Diego’s coach is aggressive, always encouraging Deigo to move forward. Diego’s striking defense is not ideal, Kyle Nelson caught him in the 1st round and Mairbek Taisumov rocked him in with a right hand in the middle of that sauna they were fighting in. Diego has back to back wins over Rustam Khabilov and Mairbek Taisumov, he’s looked great after serving his steroid suspension, a win against A. Pettis does a lot for his career.
Strength: Pressure, Boxing, Jiu Jitsu
Weakness: Boxing Defense, Looks Terrible at Weigh In
Prediction
A. Pettis struggles against pressure boxers because he can’t set up hit kicks. Diego is a pressure boxer with excellent cardio. I can see Diego taking A. Pettis down in this fight and riding out rounds in top position. Diego can be hit, A. Pettis’ path to victory in this fight is catching Diego with a big right hand. Think of the Wonderboy fight. When fighters have a pressure style, they can be hit. Tony Ferguson and Justin Gaethje are examples. A. Pettis has had issues with cardio, and moving backwards will be taxing for him. A. Pettis also has picked up the habit of becoming injured within fights. The difference in this fight is Deigo’s pressure. If A. Pettis doesn’t catch Deigo with a big punch, look for Diego to win a decision or a 3rd round finish.
Betting
There isn’t anything that stands out here. I have a feeling a lot of people will bet A. Pettis and if the ling moves to Diego (-160) that’s a good bet, keep an eye out for the line moving, people will bet A. Pettis.
•Pass
Nasrat Haqparast (-300) Drew Dober (+250)
Nasrat Haqparast is 5'10 with a 72" reach. He’s 24 years old and fights out of Tristar. GSP was actually in his corner in his last fight. GSP also happened to forget all the cornerman stuff a cornerman is supposed to bring after the 1st round. I believe you can hear him go, “Oh ****” when he realized his mistake and you can see GSP scampering back the other way completely missing the only corner opportunity of the fight. I don’t think I’ve seen him throw a jab in his four UFC fights but his left hand is ferocious. He has an excellent chin and an ability to take a body shot. I specifically like his left inside leg kick against an orthodox fighter as he stands southpaw. Haqparast basically lines up that left hand and lands it for the entirety of 3 rounds. Haqparast is a sensational fighter. When I watch him it just seems like he has that “it” factor, fighting comes natural to him. He’s not going to shoot for a takedown, but he’s capable of staying on his feet. In his last fight he was noticeably more patient, but I believe that is because he was facing a counter striker and his gameplan was to take inventory in the 1st round. If I had to nitpick here’s what I would say. Diakiese hit him with a couple of left hooks. When he looks to finish a downed, compromised, fighter he doesn’t look for dominant jiu jitsu positions to strike from, he just wings punches which makes it easier for his opponent to survive. He seems to put up a boxing guard and wait for his opponent to stop throwing so he can start throwing. Maybe an uppercut or a head kick to finish a combination would cause him some trouble. He also doesn’t have a jab. But remember this name, I don’t see why this kid doesn’t compete for the 155 lbs title in the future.
Strength: Left Hand, Cardio
Weakness: None
Drew Dober is 5'8 with a 70" reach. He’s 31 years old and fights out of Elevation in Denver, Colorado. Drew Dober gets to the point when he fights. He’s a little one dimensional with a big left hand and a left body kick. Dober mixes in a right hook that is capable of ending a fight. Wrestling is not his strong suit, but he mixes in a double leg shot once in awhile. He’s capable of staying in an opponent’s guard and doing enough to win rounds. I thought I would notice a cardio issue based on Dober’s build, but I haven’t. Training at altitude in Denver seems to work out for him.
Strength: Power
Weakness: Pacing
Prediction
Haqparast and Dober have similar skill sets except Haqparast is just better. Haqparast is faster, he has a longer reach, and I like his cardio a little better. When I watch Haqparast I just look at him and think, this kid is born to do this. Under the tutelage of Firas Zahabi at Tristar, I have a hard time believing Haqparast loses this fight. I imagine the UFC is going to make this the main event of the prelims and it’s going to be a showcase for Haqparast. Where Dober can win this fight is in the 1st round with a right hook. Dober is an aggressive fighter, if he connects with a left hand I can imagine a scenario where Haqparast doesn’t see that sneaky right hook. But I think it’s a long shot, I have seen Haqparast play the aggressor and I have seen Haqparast play the matador. Haqparast will take inventory in the 1st round and avoid a rockem sockem robot exchange with Dober. Late in the 1st round or beginning in the 2nd round there will be a cascading effect with Haqparast taking over the fight. Dober will be on the back foot and Haqparast will land that left hand a lot. When I have seen Dober be successful he’s walking his opponent down, dictating the terms. I think this will be a little bit of a new experience for Dober; being walked down, having the terms dictated to him. Haqparast wins this fight by KO in the 3rd round.
Betting
It looks like Haqparast opened at -210. If I was a dedicated gambler I would have been all over that. Haqparast is a killer. -300 seems to be about right. I’m pretty confident in my prediction analysis.
- Haqparast Wins (-300)
- Haqparast Wins by KO (+270)
- Haqparast Wins in Round 3 (+1150)
Maycee Barber (-1000) Roxanne Modaferri (+650)
Roxanne Modaferri is 5'6 with a 69" reach. She’s 37 years old and reminds me of my Aunt Karen. Roxi uses movement to keep herself safe in striking range because she’s not a great striker. What Roxi wants to do is find the clinch against the fence. From the clinch she will try like hell to take you down. Effort is her best attribute. She knows her striking limitations and she will pressure you and try to clinch until the fight is over. She recently beat Antonina Shevchenko in St. Petersburg using her grappling and she gave a lot of credit to her new strength coach. Apparently Roxi’s been in the gym. On the ground Roxi’s jiu jitsu is really good, but she needs to find those jiu jitsu positions to have much of a chance in any fight.
Strength: Jiu Jitsu, “White Belt Attitude”
Weakness: Power, Strength
Maycee Barber is 5'5 with a 65" reach. She’s the youngest fighter on the UFC roster at 21 years old and she’s spent the last year at Roufusport. There’s a lot of hype around Maycee, she refers to herself as “The Future”. She tried calling Paige VanZant out on Instagram, and she’s been saying how she is a threat to Valentina Shevchenko. Maycee’s best fighting attribute is striking from the clinch. She’s not a remarkable wrestler, you’re not going to see her shooting double legs. Maycee’s goal is finding the clinch against the fence. Her striking from the clinch against the fence carries power and is a threat to end fights. Maycee’s standup is different story. Her boxing was terrible. She tried to compensate for not having a jab with long leg kicks. She has a terrible habit of losing her balance after throwing strikes. JJ Aldrich exposed Maycee’s boxing defense. A pressure boxer eats Maycee up. Now, here is where her 21 years of age and Roufusport comes into play. Her last fight against Gillian Robertson you can tell she is working on learning a jab. Having a functioning jab will dramatically help the effectiveness of her kicks. The entirety of her cage fighting attributes will become more effective if she learns how to box. But right now it seems to me not knowing how to box is a huge liability. Sure, she could probably beat PVZ and she will probably KO Roxy, but if she’s talking about Valentina Shevchenko she needs to work on her boxing. I mean, shoot, Joanne Calderwood gives Maycee a lot of trouble based on what I’ve seen. BUT she’s 21 years old, this is the age where you develop and grow as a martial artist. I’m excited to see Maycee make her run in the UFC.
Strength: Clinch Fighting
Weakness: Boxing
Prediction
This Instagram post sums up the dynamic of this fight. Roxi is “The Happy Warrior” and is true to her name. Maycee Barber plays a villainous role and is garnering attention. Roxy is letting Maycee know about hotel logistics in an attempt to help her with weight cutting. Maycee posts this saying “the past is not ready for the future” or something like that. I don’t see Roxy winning this fight and I think Maycee is going to be very successful playing a villain role, because no one has stood out as a legitimate contender for Shevchenko at 125 lbs. It reminds me a little of when Conor went after Aldo. Roxy doesn’t have the power to take advantage of Maycee’s boxing issue. Both fighters want to find the clinch against the fence. Roxi’s path to victory is grinding out a decision from takedowns and clinch success. Unfortunately, Maycee’s physicality is too much for Roxy to overcome. Roxy will fail to take Maycee to the ground and I think Maycee hurts Roxy with some vicious elbows from the clinch that lead to a stoppage in the 2nd round.
Betting
Maycee doesn’t deserve to be a -1000 favorite. But she’s probably going to win this fight. If you want to be Roxi as the underdog bet Roxi by decision +900. I’m just going to root for Roxi.
•Pass
Sodiq Yusuff (-150) Andre Fili (+130)
Sodiq Yusuff is 5’9 with a 71” reach. He’s 26 years old competing at 145 lbs, fighting out of Team Lloyd Irvin. Sodiq is a little undersized for the 145 lbs division. To compensate for the size, Sodiq consistently utilizes a lower calf kick. What Sodiq wants to do is smash your leg with kicks and counter punch your face. The clinch against the fence is not a weakness nor a strength for Sodiq, but I have not seen Sodiq stuff a takedown attempt or fight off of his back. I’m impressed with Sodiq’s striking, but he can be hit. Gabriel Benitez caught him a couple times with a straight left. And if I remember correctly from my UfC 241 blog, I am not a fan of Benitez’s striking.
Strength: Calf Kick, Power
Weakness: Size
Andre Fili is 5'11 with a 74" reach. He’s 29 years old and trains at Team Alpha Male. Fili has looked really good in his last 3 fights, I feel like Alpha Male is a good fit for him. Fili utilizes his reach by setting everything up with a very good jab. He rarely throws a right hand these days, I think he beat Myles Jury exclusively throwing a jab. Fili used to move around like a banshee which caused him to be fatigued. Fili now judges distance well and stays in his jabbing range without excessive movement. Fili’s head kicks are excellent, he seems to get them up there effortlessly. Fili’s striking is complemented by well timed takedowns. Although, when Fili lands a takedown he does have trouble holding his opponent on the mat. Because of this I feel Fili has made a change in his style to shoot less takedown attempts. But don’t be surprised to see Fili counter a leg kick with a takedown in this fight. Speaking of leg kicks, Fili doesn’t check them and it’s a problem, Fili’s lead leg is there to be hit. Because Fili throws the jab so often, his jab has the potential to be countered with a big right hand.
Strength: Size, Jab
Weakness: Leg Kicks
Prediction
This is a very interesting fight. Fili is susceptible to leg kicks and Sodiq commits to the calf kick to compensate for his size. Fili will have a significant reach advantage and will look to capitalize with his jab. If Fili’s jab becomes too predictable Sodiq will have success countering it. Will Fili time a Sodiq leg kick with a takedown? I’ve never seen Sodiq’s takedown defense or his jiu jitsu off of his back. What happens if Fili takes Sodiq down? This is a close fight but it’s hard for me to overlook Fili’s size advantage and his jab. The jab is the difference in this fight, Fili wins by decision. This is a really good fight, I’m excited for this one.
Betting
This is a close fight. On one hand I really like Fili’s size and his jab. On the other hand Sodiq has good leg kicks and Fili is susceptible to leg kicks. Sodiq also might be able to counter Fili’s jab. Prolly best to pass on this one.
•Pass
Grant Dawson (-300) Chas Skelly (+250) CANCELLED
Grant Dawson is 5’10 with a 72” reach. He’s 25 years old and fights out of Grindhouse MMA. Grant is a one dimensional fighter, he looks for single legs or the clinch against the fence as avenues to take his opponent down. His top game is pretty good. At times Grant can be too eager to punch his downed opponent and leave himself open to a triangle. His striking is not good, I don’t see Grant ever winning a standup fight but he is working on it with James Krause at the Grindhouse. The most concerning aspect of Grant’s game is his cardio. I think he has a pacing issue. Grant goes all out from round 1 looking to take his opponent down. By the 2nd round Grant is gassed out because wrestling is taxing.
Strength: Wrestling, Ground and Pound
Weakness: Striking, Cardio
Chas Skelly is 5’9 with a 74” reach. He’s 34 years old and fights out of Hard Knocks 365. Skelly has an impressive wrestling background but his cage fighting skill is his grappling. His striking isn’t going to impress anyone but I’m impressed with his scrambles. He seems to have long limbs and is good at taking his opponents back. There absolutely is a cardio issue here and at 34 years old I don’t expect that to improve.
Strength: Wrestling, Jiu Jitsu
Weakness: Cardio, Striking
Prediction
Skelly’s striking isn’t good enough to take advantage of anyone. We are looking at a grappling affair. Grant will take Skelly down because Skelly wants to be taken down. Skelly likes to scramble and isn’t afraid of starting off on bottom. The question is, can Grant secure the takedown and finish rounds on top of Skelly or will Skelly scramble and end up taking Grant’s back? Grant has never been in a vulnerable position in the UFC, I feel like Skelly is capable of winning scrambles with Grant. I like Skelly by tear naked choke in this one.
Betting
I’ll tell you what, I’m not sold on this Grant Dawson. I’ve seen him live and I left Blue Cross Arena thinking, “Something’s off about this kid.” I think Grant has too much trouble settling a takedown and Skelly is liable to take his back or put him in a triangle. I like Skelly by submission here. No way should Grant be a -300 favorite.
•Chas Skelly Wins (+250)
•Chas Skelly Wins by Submission (+700)
Aleksa Camur (-105) Justin Ledet (-105)
Justin Ledet is 6’4 with an 80” reach. He’s 31 years old, I’m not sure where he trains. Ledet is a pure boxer with a good jab. Because of his boxing stance, he can’t defend the lower leg kick. He can’t wrestle and his Jiu Jitsu isn’t special. When he lets his hands go with 1–2 combinations he’s a little dangerous, but Ledet’s wrestling is his Achilles heel.
Aleksa Camur is 6’0 with a 76” reach. He’s 24 years old and he trains at Stipe Miocic’s gym. I’ve seen him fight once on the Contender Series. The first thing that stood out is he is undersized for 205 lbs. He showed a good chin taking a massive shot right before he finished his fight with a flying knee. Instead of cutting the cage off, Camur chased his opponent around the cage. I didn’t get a chance to see his wrestling or ground game, only his boxing was on display.
Prediction
Ledet will have a pretty significant reach advantage. Ledet has shown in the past against Azunna Anyanwu when he has a reach advantage he will exclusively use his jab to win a decision. I don’t see why Ledet doesn’t employ this same strategy against Camur. Camur will need to conquer Ledet’s jab to win this fight. I haven’t seen enough of Camur to have an opinion on that. I have no prediction for this fight.
Betting
•Pass
Tim Elliot (+125) Askar Askarov (-145)
Tim Elliot is 5’7 with a 67” reach. He’s 33 years old and fights out of Grindhouse MMA. Tim was an All-American wrestler at Oklahoma, he likes to scramble and look for submissions. He does have a good submission game on the ground, but I haven’t seen any impressive striking. His cardio looks pretty good. Elliot fought Deiveson Figueiredo in his first fight back since tearing his ACL. I actually thought he looked pretty good. Elliot reminded me of Dominick Cruz with his unorthodox movement and striking. I thought he was winning until he shot for a takedown and was caught in Figueiredo’s guillotine. Elliot is known for good cardio.
Strength: Scrambles, Cardio
Weakness: Age
Askar Askarov is 5’6 with a 67” reach. He’s 27 years old and I think he’s deaf. Askarov’s striking isn’t strong. He wants to clinch with his opponent and leach onto them and work to favorable grappling positions.
Strength: Grappling
Weakness: Striking
Prediction
Both of these fighters are very good grapplers. The key to this fight is Askerov’s ability to take Elliot to the ground. Elliot has a striking advantage on the feet. Will he use his wrestling to keep the fight on the feet? I think Elliot uses his wrestling and keeps this fight standing. Elliot out-strikes Askarov for 3 rounds and wins a decision.
Betting
I like Elliot here but I’m not confident. I’m going to pass.
•Pass
Ode Osbourne (-125) Brian Kelleher (+105)
Ode Osbourne is 5’7 with a 72” reach. I like a lot about this kid. In his Contender Series debut he showed fast hands, good wrestling, power, and ended the fight with an arm bar. All complimented with a 72” reach. I don’t like how he has a tendency to be on his back in his fights. Ode has racked up submissions from his back but his guard isn’t good enough to have success in the UFC.
Strength: Reach
Weakness: Cardio?
Brian Kelleher is 5’6 with a 74” reach. He’s 33 years old and is training at Factory X for this fight. This is the last fight on Kelleher’s contract so there should be some desperation. Kelleher has had some weight cutting issues in the past. He’s lashed out on social media about having trouble making weight for this fight, so it will be interesting to see if he does make weight for this fight. Kelleher is willing to throw down, his striking defense isn’t great but he will sit down on his punches. He’s not a great wrestler but does have a decent top game if he does find the ground.
Strength: Cardio
Weakness: Boxing Defense
Prediction
Contrary to his record, I don’t see Ode as a submission fighter. To me, if he’s going to have success in the UFC, he needs to use his wrestling background to keep fights standing and use those long arms to complement his striking. That’s exactly what I see happening here. Ode wins by KO in the 1st round.
Betting
I like this Ode kid. I’m an attribute guy, his arms are freakishly long and I think he’s going to KO Kelleher. His cardio is a “?” But I’m going to run with it.
•Ode Wins (-125)
•Ode Wins by KO (+550)
