UFC 247: Houston
UFC North Carolina Recap
•Thee story in MMA is the Joe Rogan vs. Stephen A. Smith BEEF. Now, MMA is a complicated sport. I’ve been a fan for about 5 years, I write an MMA blog, and I learn something new every time I watch. People also love violence. The Romans built the Colosseum to pacify and distract the masses, “Give them bread and circuses.” You know what type of entertainment happened in the Colosseum? Violence. Society likes to think we’ve evolved…we haven’t. So we have a very complicated sport that attracts people. This dynamic has made the phrase, “Casual” popular. “Casual” is term overused by “hardcore” fans, at nauseam, to describe new MMA fans that may have said something silly. Here’s a short list of things a new fan could say to deserve such treatment:
- “Why doesn’t he just get up”
- “See what I mean? This Derrick Lewis guy just stood up.”
- Homosexual remark about grappling
- Referring to the UFC as a sport
This is important to point out because Stephen A. Smith is new to MMA. Stephen A. Smith shows up to popular UFC events because ESPN hopes his presence will grow the sport. Guys like you and me do not matter, we already like MMA. Stephen A. Smith’s 1st UFC event was the inaugural ESPN UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw
Joe Rogan only shows up for UFC Pay Per View events in America, so UFC 246 is the 1st time Joe met Steve. One of the things you need to know about Joe is he LOVES mixed martial arts. He’s a black belt under Eddie Bravo at 10th Planet and frequently gets excited doing UFC commentary. Someone had a funny comment on reddit the other day, “I want Joe Rogan yelling, “He’s out!!! He’s out!!! at my funeral.” This is the genesis of the Joe Rogan-Stephen A. Smith BEEF
Stephen A. Smith recapping UFC 246 just looks weird. But, I get it, and I didn’t even have a problem with it. I was actually okay with it. Many of us look at fighter’s salaries and health insurance outside of competition, and want better. Well, the UFC reaching a broader audience is good for that cause. If ESPN believes Stephen A. Smith helps grow the sport I’m okay with trying it out. You can watch it for yourself, but he’s closer to Billy Madison’s Industrial Revolution speech than he is educating an audience on what they just saw. When Stephen A. Smith speaks he “pontificates” a talking point. There is no flow, he doesn’t build on what Joe’s saying, there’s an abrupt change of topic. I also thought the idea of Stephen A. Smith retroactively telling Cowboy what he should have done after getting his face smashed was ludicrous (I typed that out as “ludicris”, apparently the rapper has me thinking that’s how you spell the word). My personal favorite movement was the circular finger gyrations. All of this is fine, it’s baked into the Stephen A. Smith cake, no one expected anything different. But, let me tell you where Stephen A. Smith crossed the Rubicon…you CAN NOT call Cowboy Cerrone a quitter. I have a Cowboy Cerrone Christmas ornament hanging from my Tree, he’s universally well liked. MMA fans will never forget you went “hard in the paint” on Cowboy Cerrone. Here is Joe voicing his concerns about bringing in Stephen A. Smith to the UFC commentary team.
Joe’s right. Stephen A. Smith has no background in MMA, he’s not qualified to speak. The first fight I saw live, Julio Arce head kicked Julian Erosa unconscious. This sport is violent, people get hurt. Stephen A. Smith’s polarizing, popular, style of junk talking is not congruent with combat sports. I would imagine, very rarely, if ever, would you see a football player being stretchered off the field, and later, a sports talk show host uses that guy as a scapegoat for the reason why the Broncos lost. Not only is Joe right, but he predicted Stephen A. Smith’s reaction…
I haven’t followed Stephen A. Smith since he and Skip Bayless were debating the merits of Tim Tebow playing quarterback. I think both of those guys owe Tim Tebow a huge thank you for their careers. I understand he is very popular. What he doesn’t understand is, it’s not a specific piece of information that’s the problem. Where Stephen A. Smith crossed the Rubicon is calling Cowboy Cerrone a quitter. This is Stephen A. Smith’s style. This is what makes him popular and it doesn’t work in MMA. He can’t help himself, he further digs himself in, “Cowboy folded like a cheap tent”. He also is trying to make the point, he impacts “the numbers.” I’m not sure what he means. I assure you 0 people bought UFC 246 because Stephen A. Smith was there. People subscribe to ESPN+ to watch the fights not Joe Rogan or any of the commentary team. Seems like a weird flex, but okay. I can’t help but appreciate the subtle, “without calling me” sassiness. But, I do give credit where credit is due. I think Stephen A. Smith might’ve just executed the 1st ever successful double wink. The man is a pioneer of gesticulation.
Alright, my zest for talking about this has waned. It’s not a BEEF. Joe Rogan doesn’t care. Stephen A. Smith will talk about it because it’s good for ratings. I’m sure Joe and Steve will cross paths and it will be anticlimactic. But, most importantly, Cowboy doesn’t care. I will leave a timeline of the rest of it, but I do want to mention the last time MMA brought in a transplant. His name was Gus Johnson, the CBS basketball guy. MMA promotion, Strikeforce, went live on CBS. There was a brawl that broke out during the post fight interviews. That was the night Gus Johnson realized the Diaz brothers keep it real and don’t care if they are on national television. Gus Johnson uttered the infamous line, “These things sometimes happen in MMA” Ugh, Gus, that’s not what you should say. Strikeforce was promptly removed from CBS television.
r/TheFightGuy
Jon Jones (-450) Dominick Reyes (+350)
Jon Jones (6'4", 84" reach, 32 years old, Jackson-Wink)
I’ve always been a GSP guy for the GOAT conversation. Figured no failed drug tests gives him a tiebreaker over Anderson Silva and Jon Jones. But after watching Jones, I understand why people think Jones is the best.
Things I like:
- Jones manages distance exceptionally well. Jones has the longest reach in the UFC but he doesn’t manage distance with his jab. He does it with his feet, it’s very unique.
- Jon’s kicks are unbelievable. He features that stabbing push kick to your thigh which keeps you at Jones’ kicking range. I like his left body kick from the southpaw stance. He’s really good at forcing his opponent to go left or right and meeting them with a spinning back kick to the gut. And because Jones features such a variety of kicks, it’s hard to defend them. You are used to him kicking low for 3 rounds and the 4th round Jones brings a shin to your head.
- Jon switches stances continuously, which makes it hard to defend. You’re defending a southpaw and an orthodox fighter within each round.
- It seems like there is an awe factor fighters have when they fight Jones. Anthony Smith claimed he froze up in the cage with Jon. I forget who it was but a fighter said, “He’s a lot bigger than you think when you’re in there with him.” Jon seems to have a presence in the octagon that fighters have a hard time overcoming.
- Jones is really good in the clinch. Conor didn’t invent those shoulder strikes he hurt Cowboy with. Jones has been using those for awhile. He’s really good at finding space to deliver violent elbows. Knees from the clinch are effective and I’ve seen Jon connect his hands from the clinch and slam his opponent.
- On the ground Jones is a mutant. I’m surprised I didn’t see Jon use a jab more to manage distance, but his reach really works to his advantage on the ground.
- Jon is a computer in the octagon. He can asses what you are doing and make adjustments more so than any other fighter I have seen.
- Pretty good chin on Jon.
- High level MMA wrestler. I think he was trying out for the Olympic wrestling team but he got his girlfriend pregnant and was forced to bow out.
- Greg Jackson is excellent at creating a gameplan.
Things I don’t like:
- I’m not in love with Jon’s boxing. I would like to see him use the longest reach of all time and fight behind a jab more often.
- I find that guys who commit to moving forward and throwing some big punches have success against Jon. Before DC was KO’d in round 3 he had a lot of success.
- Jon has thin legs and Thiago Santos had a lot of success attacking those calves with leg kicks. This prompted Jones’ corner to tell him, “He can’t kick your calf if you pressure him against the fence”. Calf kicks are a big problem for Jones, Santos was the first to really have success with them.
- Jon throws a lot of kicks. While I am thoroughly impressed with Jon’s ability to kick, I feel like the kicks could be anticipated and countered with punches.
- I don’t like how Jon tends to fight moving backwards. Moving backwards is tiring.
- There is a narrative that Jon hasn’t looked great since he tested positive for steroids. They had to up and move the Gustafsson fight because Jon was “pulsing”. I bet USADA has been testing Jones and there the question, “Jon’s off the juice, is he still the best off all time?” That’s a real question that needs to be answered.
- Jones is a high level MMA wrestler and he’s a mutant on the ground. Given those 2 things, I would like to see Jones use his offensive wrestling more than I have seen.
Dominick Reyes (6'4", 77" reach, 30 years old)
My buddy asked me if Dominick Reyes was any good awhile ago. I’m a Volkan guy and that wound is still fresh so I told him my biased opinion. He responds, “Uhhhh, well, he’s my friend dude.” so I backed tracked and now Dominick Reyes has the opportunity to give Jon Jones his 1st defeat.
Things I like:
- Reyes has a lot of size for a light heavyweight, you can’t teach size.
- Very powerful left hand. Most effective as a counter punch.
- Very nice left body kick as a southpaw.
- Good takedown defense, had a little trouble with Volkan but Weidman and OSP didn’t have success taking Reyes down.
- Capable right jab as a southpaw.
- Will follow his left hand punch with a left body kick or a left head kick.
- Countered OSP’s kicks with a straight left.
- Knocked Volkan off of his feet with a lower calf kick, powerful calf kicks.
- Finishes boxing combinations with leg kicks.
- Composed when opponent is hurt.
- Reyes’ left hand punch does seem to be accurate.
Things I don’t like:
- Has looked fatigued in 3 round fights.
- When taken down Reyes instinctively turns his back to get up. Feel like a high level grappler like Jon will take his back.
- Didn’t look comfortable blocking OSP high kicks.
- Wades towards fence looking for powerful left hand counter punch. Jones can find the clinch here.
- Doesn’t “crash” forward with his boxing. Reyes seems measured and I don’t think that’s the way to beat Jon Jones. Jon Jones makes adjustments better than anyone I have seen fight in a cage. Reyes spoke after his last fight saying how he’s like a computer and he makes adjustments that beat his opponent. I don’t think that works against Jon.
- Reyes is still a one dimensional fighter. Left hand, left high kick, and left low kick. You can be one dimensional fight and have a ton of success, “I fear not the man who has practiced 10,000 kicks once, but I fear the man who has practiced one kick 10,000 times.”-Bruce Lee. I just have my doubts when you’re facing Jon Jones.
- Haven’t seen Reyes work off of his back. Haven’t seen Reyes work in compromising grappling positions.
Prediction
The case for Dominick Reyes winning this fight is, he needs to come out hot. Jones isn’t a slow starter but I expect Jones to keep his distance, use those effective push kicks to the thigh and take inventory. Reyes needs to commit to some big power 1–2 combinations, move Jones backwards and finish combinations with smashing his legs. He also needs the cardio to keep that gameplan up for 25 minutes. But Jones’ ability to manage distance doesn’t allow Reyes to have success. Jones is the best kicker I have seen fight. That spinning back kick to the gut will be effective in this fight. Reyes has a tendency to move backwards looking for the big counter left hand. Jones will find the clinch against the fence in the 2nd round. When Reyes starts to fatigue Jones will take him down and dominate the ground. In the 4th round Reyes will instinctively give up his back to get up. Jones will take his back and end this fight with a rear naked choke.
Betting
I don’t like betting Jones here as a big favorite, (-450) doesn’t appeal to me as a good bet for Jon. I don’t hate taking a shot at a later round prop finish. At some point in my rant to my buddy I critiqued Reyes’ cardio. I think it’s a reasonable opinion Jones takes Reyes to deep water and finishes the fight.
- Jones Wins Round 4 (+1050)
- Jones Wins Round 5 (+1650)
Valentina Shevchenko (-1100) Katlyn Chookagian (+700)
I’m really digging this “Valentina is a Russian Spy” conspiracy
“Valentina has no significant other. Born in Kyrgyzstan into a Russian family in a country which is majority Asian. Polyglot, well versed in weaponry and martial arts. Her trainer is a former Soviet military. She constantly travels around the world. She looks like an straight up assassin. She has no emotional attachments other than her sister and mother. She has all the signs of an FSB agent. Her lifestyle and demeanor look shady.”-CombatSportsInformer
That’s irrefutable evidence, Valentina is a Russian Spy. Dana White is personal friends with President Trump. Don’t be surprised when Valentina single handedly brings back the Cold War.
Things I like:
- Valentina’s Muay Thai is incredible.
- Valentina has excellent timing which makes her an incredible counter striker.
- The spinning back kicks, spinning wheel kicks, spinning back fists are really fun to watch. Valentina likes to spin, and they are all very effective techniques.
- Counters low kicks with punches
- Strong body lock in the clinch. More often than not Valentina takes her opponent down with trips and finds side control from the body lock.
- Does an excellent job controlling arms from top position. She really likes working for that crucifix position.
Things I don’t like:
- You can make an argument Valentina fatigues towards the end of a 5 round fight.
- Her size is not great for the division. 5'6" with a 66" reach forces her to close the distance in a lot of her fights. She’s excellent at it, but it’s still a disadvantage.
- There isn’t much head movement involved in Valentina’s stand up.
- She’s patient. She fights 5 round fights so she has plenty of time, and patience is a quality of a high level striker, but I’m afraid a longer point fighter can eventually take advantage of that patience and win a decision.
Katlyn Chookagian (5'9", 66" reach, 31 years old, Coach Mark Henry)
I had a costume party the night of UFC 244. There were 17 Armenian women, and me in my Raiden costume sitting on the coach with a couple of dudes watching UFC 244. The entire night I had a battle with trying to hear the fights with all the women talking and at one point I was overruled to put music on. Right around Johnny Walker-Corey Anderson I had to put my foot down but my point is, when I announced that we had an Armenian walking to the octagon all the women became silent and were interested. I support the Armenians by marriage.
Things I like:
- Size. Size matters a lot in MMA and Chookagian has it. She’s 5'9" with a 66" reach at 125 lbs. You hear all the time, “Close the distance.” That basically means, she can hit you where you can’t hit her and you need to do something about it. It’s good to have size.
- Some people have size and don’t utilize it, Chookagian complements her size by fighting long. Her best attribute is a left jab and she has a really nice side kick she can bring up to her opponent’s face.
- Chookagian does a nice job of fighting to her strengths. She stays on the outside and point fights. She’s not going to try and be someone she’s not.
- She seems physically strong. I liked her physicality in the Liz Carmouche fight.
- She trains at Renzo Gracie BJJ in NYC, she is pretty good at defending from the bottom position.
Things I don’t like:
- Chookagian doesn’t have power.
- Her lead leg is open to be hit with leg kicks. Her lead leg was bright red in her 2 most recent fights. Judges notice that.
- When Chookagian moves in and out of the pocket to land a right hand or combination, she can be slow. Against Maia she got lost and literally turned her back to Maia to retreat. She can be countered when she does enter the pocket.
Prediction
There is a real challenge in this fight for Valentina, and it’s closing the distance against Chookagian. Valentina is a counter striker, Chookagian is very patient. I’m interested to see how she’s going to chase down Chookagian. Will Valentina be able to counter the longer fighter? I really like Valentina’s spinning kick to the body in this fight. There will be less distance to cover in kicking range. Chookagian’s lead leg will be there to be smashed, Valentina will smash it waiting to counter. I think there are significant challenges in this fight for Valentina but there’s no reason for me to believe she doesn’t pass the test. Valentina smashes Chookagian’s lead leg, controls the center of the octagon, whips some spinning stuff, and wins a 5 round decision.
Betting
Valentina should not be a (-1100), I think her reputation precedes her here. I don’t hate betting Chookagian at (+700) but she’s most likely going to lose this one. I’m not interested in betting this fight.
•Pass
Derrick Lewis (-230) Ilir Latifi (+200)
Derrick Lewis (6'3", 79" reach, 34 years old, Silverback Fight Club)
This is a homecoming for Derrick Lewis, he’s from Houston. Derrick Lewis grew up with an abusive father and he holds a particular distaste for domestic violence. I am aware of two UFC fighters with a domestic violence history, Travis Browne and Greg Hardy. Derrick Lewis had a chance to fight Travis Browne. Travis Brown was dating Rhonda Rousey at the time. Lewis won that fight by KO and in his post-fight interview he was wondering the whereabouts of “Rhonda Rousey’s fine ass”. I can appreciate it. Now the 2nd UFC fighter with a domestic violence history is Greg Hardy, Derrick Lewis vs. Greg Hardy would sell some tickets. Derrick Lewis is awesome. He has tremendous interviews, probably the funniest fighter in the UFC.
Things I like:
- Power. Derrick Lewis carries power in his hands for all 3 rounds.
- Hand speed. Lewis came up as a boxer originally, don’t be fooled, he has hand speed.
- Lewis had ACL surgery after the Junior Dos Santos loss. He’s been fighting with a torn or partially torn ACL at 300 lbs for awhile now. He got it fixed and Lewis looked really good physically in his last fight.
- I don’t hate his takedown defense against the fence. Many fighters want to take Lewis down. At 300 lbs he has a complicated relationship with gravity, but it’s no joy ride to take Lewis to the ground.
- When Lewis is taken down, he just stands up. He’s so powerful that’s just what he does. Dominick Reyes will give up his back to stand up and it’s a liability. Lewis will turn his back to get up and he’s just too big to have his back taken so he just gets up. It seems like Lewis is naturally impermeable to all submissions.
- When he does get up look out! In those scramble situations where Lewis gets back to his feet, he’s looking to take your head off.
- I like Lewis’ knee to the body from the clinch.
- I also like that Lewis more often than not is matched up with a foreigner and gets a U-S-A!!! chant from the crowd. I don’t see how that doesn’t happen again here in Houston.
- In the DC fight Michael Rappaport couldn’t see anything because his seat was right behind on of the 8 turnbuckles of the octagon. I like that.
Things I don’t like:
- Lewis is still a giant and has a tendency to fatigue. Being taken down is a real problem for Lewis’ energy bar. Trips from the clinch can be successful taking Lewis down.
- Lewis throws a a pretty cool looking switch kick. This kick can be caught and result with Lewis being taken down.
- Leg kicks can cause Lewis problems.
- DC is the only man to submit Lewis with a rear naked choke. DC’s wrestling held Lewis down. DC’s the exception that proves the rule but Marcin Tybura did have success holding Lewis down too. Tybura’s length was a real attribute for that cause.
- I’d like to see Lewis use a jab once in awhile.
- Lewis doesn’t have a check left hook, or the ability to catch a fighter trying to close the distance on their way in.
Ilir Latifi (5'8", 75", 36 years old, Allstars Training Center)
I’m a gut guy. My gut tells me I like Ilir Latifi. Latifi has had back issues that have caused him to pull out of the Volkan Oezdemir fight multiple times. Back issues don’t go away. Latifi has recently moved up to heavyweight, he will be a very small heavyweight at 5'8".
Things I like:
- Explosive striker in the pocket.
- Powerful calf kicks.
- Will try and catch your kick and take you down.
- I like how Latifi finds the clinch to close the distance and immediately exits to throw a punch.
- He trained with DC. DC said he’s a really strong grappler.
Things I don’t like:
- He’s had back problems. Back issues don’t go away with age.
- He lifts with his back to take fighters down. I don’t think that is going to work with Derrick Lewis being so big. And his back issues aren’t going to help.
- Latifi has really slowed down in his last 2 fights, his cardio doesn’t look to last 3 rounds anymore. His move to heavyweight will make him heavier. Carrying more weight isn’t good for cardio.
- If Latifi is fatigued, he’s a sitting duck. He will occasionally lash out with big punches, but if Latifi is fatigued Derrick Lewis will separate him from his consciousness.
Prediction
We know what Derrick Lewis’ gameplan is going to be, throw his hands and try to connect. I think it would be a mistake for Lewis to feature his switch kick, especially early. Latifi will want to take Lewis down and Latifi will try and catch kicks. In Lewis’ last fight Ivanov caught his kick and took him to the ground. Lewis’ corner said don’t throw anymore kicks. In the 1st round Latifi will try and push Lewis to the fence and take him down from the clinch. Lewis will be hard to take down, and if he does, I don’t think Latifi has the size to hold Lewis down. Lewis will stand up. Latifi has fatigued in his last couple of fights and I don’t see his move to heavyweight helping that cause. With back surgery and getting up there in age, I think we’re looking at a fatigued Latifi getting KO’d in the 2nd round. Watch the Latifi/Oezdemir fight. Oezdemir hit him with a lot of punches fatigue wouldn’t allow him to defend. Latifi doesn’t survive those same punches from Lewis. Lewis wins by KO in Round 2.
Betting
I actually like the prop of Lewis winning in the 2nd round. I’ve been hearing a lot of people liking Latifi at (+200) and I get it, I was actually interested in that before studying Latifi. But, after watching the tape, I don’t see Lewis losing in Houston. Keep an eye out for the Derrick Lewis ling to drop.
•Derrick Lewis Wins Round 2 (+400)
