UFC 248: Israel Adesanya vs. Yoel Romero

r/TheFightGuy

UFC Norfolk, Virginia Recap

• Deiveson Figueiredo missed weight. He gave up 30% of his show $$$ and I believe his sponsorship $$$ went from $30,000 to $5,000. He was also no longer eligible to win the Flyweight belt. The pulse of the fans was, “If Benavidez doesn’t win, the Flyweight division is in shambles.” I disagree, and I hope the Flyweights stay around for a long time. The knock on the Flyweight division has always been the fights are not entertaining. This Deiveson Figueiredo guy is very entertaining. One of the other complaints fight fans have is, “Money is dictating fight matchups, the deserving challengers are not getting title shots.” We have Yoel receiving a title shot coming off a loss, Curtis Blaydes deserves a title shot and isn’t getting one, Cejudo is defending his title against a Jose Aldo coming off 2 loses, etc. With the Flyweight division, I believe it will be refreshing to see a division run based on pure merit. I’m looking forward to Brandon Moreno vs. Jussier Formiga in a number 1 contender match. That Brandon Moreno kid has looked excellent, I would clear my schedule to sit down and watch Brandon Moreno vs. Deiveson Figueiredo for the vacant flyweight strap.
• In every Ian Cutelaba fight, he walks across the octagon to his opponent’s corner, gets in his face, and does his throat slitting gesture. That’s his thing, I would hate to disrespect Dale Earnhardt, but he’s an intimidator. So Bruce introduces Mr. Cutelaba and he starts marching across the octagon. No one stops him and he gets chest to chest with Magomed Ankalaev, they have a pre fight grappling exchange. No one told the UFC security this is what the dude does? I couldn’t believe my eyes. By definition, you can’t have fighters fight, before the fight starts. After the pre-fight grappling exchange the fight begins. The referee prematurely stopped the fight because he thought Cutelaba was “out on his feet” when Cutelaba was only pretending to be “out on his feet” to trick his opponent. This was very disappointing because this looked like fight of the night. The crowd showed their displeasure by booing Magomed Ankalaev hardheartedly and Ankalaev left the octagon giving the crowd double middle fingers. It’s hard for me to pour blame on the the referee. Cutelaba was pretending to be exactly what a good referee is trained to look for to protect the fighter. I’m going to chalk this up to an unfortunate happenstance. I don’t see how the UFC doesn’t set up an immediate rematch.

• Wendy’s and McDonald’s are having a fast food breakfast sandwich war. McDonald’s has long ruled the fast food breakfast game, everyone loves the sausage, egg, cheese, and Canadian bacon that is the Egg McMuffin. But Wendy’s has launched a breakfast campaign talking smack about the clown, and they’re bringing the “Breakfast Baconator®” into battle. I think we’re looking at a sausage patty, American cheese, 3 strips of applewood smoked bacon, a fresh cracked grade A egg, more American cheese, 3 more strips of applewood smoked bacon, and a Swiss cheese sauce cascading from the top all the way to the bottom wrapped up in a bun. “You come at the king, you best not miss.”-Omar Little.

Breakfast Baconator®

• The Alpha Ginger’s laugh is nightmare fuel. But this guy absolutely makes the recap, I can’t wait to see him fight again. 1st round KO, freakishly long arms, and super charismatic in the octagon. You have my attention Ginger leader.

• One of the main story lines heading into UFC Norfolk was, who would emerge as a challenger for Amanda Nunes at Women’s Featherweight, Megan (Meeeegan) Anderson or Felicia Spencer? Both fighters won and because I saw Felicia Spencer choke Megan (Meeeegan) Anderson out in Blue Cross Arena she deserves the title shot. But I was more impressed with Megan (Meeeegan) Anderson. The knock on Anderson was she couldn’t defend the takedown, but brings world class striking into the octagon. Anderson’s takedown defense looked stellar and I’m excited to watch her next fight.
• Finally, I’m impressed with Brendan Allen and Sean Brady. Allen keeps winning by finish and Sean Brady is a mutant on the ground. I thought Naurdiev had the edge in striking, but once Brady got his hands on Naurdiev the show was over. Two very impressive prospects.

Israel Adesanya (-280) Yoel Romero (+240)

Israel Adesanya (6’4”, 80” reach, 30 years old, City Kickboxing)
I spoke to my doctor buddy about the boil heard round the world, “It’s hard to say without pressing on it what exactly it is. But it looks like an abscess which just requires incision and drainage. Antibiotics are controversial and with close follow up unnecessary. And abscess cultures are 99% of the time MRSA which is probably where the staph rumor started.” After consultation with Dr. Matt, I am going to proceed as if Izzy is fine.

Things I like:

• Izzy’s diversity of striking is very fun to watch and very hard to prepare for. His well timed spinning elbow against Kelvin Gastelum was a thing of beauty. I specifically like Izzy’s flying knee while backing up. All of his techniques are thrown with great dexterity.
• The pressure of fighting inside an 8-sided shape to a hypothetical life or death is immeasurable. When you add the bright lights of the UFC and millions watching at home, how you handle that pressure is now a primary factor for the outcome of your fight. Israel Adesanya seems to excel under that pressure.
• Izzy is a very patient striker. He likes to hit and not be hit. I’ve noticed that City Kickboxing guys hone in on calf kicks. Judges will notice Izzy racking up calf kicks, and he does a pretty good job of going low and sneaking a question mark head kick up top.
• As a very patient striker, Izzy spends a fair amount of time on the perimeter switching stances. He’s a skilled kickboxer from the orthodox and southpaw stances. This presents 2 types of defenses Izzy’s opponent will have to prepare for.
• Izzy has long limbs. This provides him an advantage in striking, but also is an advantage on the ground. Izzy almost locked up a triangle against Gastelum. I feel like he should get more credit for being good off of his back.

Things I don’t like:

• I’m not ready to say Izzy’s takedown defense is impenetrable after the Derrick Brunson fight. I thought Brunson dictated a lot of that fight with his wrestling and Kelvin Gastelum took Izzy to the mat. If Yoel Romero secures a takedown, I don’t see Izzy getting up from bottom position.
• 43 year old Anderson Silva had a lot of success moving forward and boxing, Kelvin Gastelum had a lot of success moving forward and boxing, and I thought Robert Whittaker had a lot of success moving forward with boxing. Izzy can be hit when his opponent commits to forward movement.
• Similar to Jon Jones, Izzy’s weakest striking skill is boxing. I haven’t seen tremendous counter punching ability. Without a counter punch threat your opponent will have success committing to moving forward. I also don’t like how Izzy relies so much on head movement and leaning back to avoid strikes. One mistake and that’s a wrap against Romero.
• Izzy fatigued in the championship rounds against Kelvin Gastelum. I doubt Yoel Romero is going to take advantage of anyone’s cardio issue but it’s there.
• Izzy’s kicks can become predictable because he is such a kick dominant fighter. Catching a kick could lead to a takedown. Throwing a calf kick without setting it up could lead to a big counter punch.
• I’m a fan of America. I’m not a fan of Izzy referencing the twin towers crumbling. I will be rooting for Yoel Romero in this fight.

Yoel Romero and his 180 lbs American Bulldog, “El Guapo”

Yoel Romero (6’0”, 74” reach, 42 years old, American Top Team)
Nobody wants to fight Yoel Romero, you fight Yoel Romero because you have to fight him. Every fighter who fights Romero says the same thing, “When you hit him, it seems like you are hitting a piece of iron, not a human.” My favorite Yoel Romero moment was when he executed the first successful, playground style, “look over there” move inside of the octagon. The man is a beauty.

Things I like:

• Yoel Romero carries devastating power. I think he changed Luke Rockhold’s life with that finishing blow. Even when Romero is fatigued he carries devastating power.
• I’m not sure there’s a man alive that can beat Yoel Romero in a 3 minute fight. His biggest enemy has been his cardiovascular system. Because of this, he will pace himself. He rests in in a stagnant defensive stance, and will pick his moments to try and take his opponent’s head off. In this energy efficient fighting stance, Yoel is very capable of attacking his opponents lead leg with push kicks to the thigh. The best example of this is Romero vs. Whittaker 1. Yoel’s left hook from this stance is also a deterrent for any fighter.
• If you hit Yoel in the dick, or anywhere near the dick, he will take all 5 minutes to recover and recharge his cardiovascular system. He’s been notorious for corner antics to get more time to rest.
• Unbelievable chin, I haven’t checked but I doubt Romero has ever been finished. Off the top of my head I believe Tim Kennedy was the closest to accomplish that feet before “Stoolgate” happened. Paulo Costa (Man Rocket) did clip him early but Yoel Romero is a durable fighter.
• Yoel Romero is an Olympic level wrestler. There’s something to be said about an athlete that has prepared to compete at the highest level for the entirety of his life. Romero is conditioned to win at the highest level from a young age, it’s ingrained in him.
• Romero has a an ability to slip punches. Great goalies in hockey and soccer have unteachable, god gifted reactions. Yoel Romero has these kinds of reactions.
• Yoel Romero is a piece of iron. Paulo Costa (Man Rocket) kicked him 50 times to the body, he was never bothered.

Things I don’t like:

• Yoel Romero is 42 years old. Eventually, Father Time will kill you.
• Romero’s cardiovascular system is a liability that he brings into the octagon. Fatigue is the driving factor behind Yoel lulling his opponent to sleep and then unleashing devastating power.
• Yoel protects his head well with his hands. He can be kicked to the body but that is only effective if Yoel is being pressured. Paulo Costa (Man Rocket) did a fantastic job pressuring Yoel and utilizing the body kick.
• Yoel Romero will fatigue in a 5 round cage fight if he doesn’t finish the fight. When he fatigues, his hands will come down and is susceptible to being kicked in the head. Yoel Romero is a human being, I will not be surprised if a head kick from Israel Adesanya separates him from his consciousness in the 4th or 5th round.
• Yoel Romero has fantastic wrestling and he doesn’t use it because of fatigue. It’s a shame.

Prediction

Israel Adesanya is 30 years young. Yoel Romero is 42 years old. Fighting is a young man’s craft. Yoel Romero is a fast twitch muscle athlete to the extreme. If he doesn’t finish the fight early, he will significantly fatigue. However, his fighting style has taken this into consideration. In 5 round fights, Romero will immediately take a round to rest. Romero will take inventory in round 1 and ramp up his efforts in rounds 2 and 3. The way to prohibit this is to pressure Romero. Herein lies the problem, who wants to get close to Yoel Romero? He could hit you. Paulo Costa (Man Rocket) did an unbelievable job pressuring Yoel Romero with body kicks. But Israel Adesanya isn’t a pressure fighter, he wants to hit and not be hit. Adesanya can kick Yoel from a distance, but I doubt he’s going have much of an effect, especially early. I think this dynamic lets Yoel Romero dictate the pace of this fight to an extent. The big question in this fight is, “Can Yoel Romero close the distance and connect his fist with Israel Adesanya’s head?” I have seen Kelvin Gastelum, Robert Whittaker, Anderson Silva, and Marvin Vettori all have success moving forward and boxing Adesanya, so the answer is yes, but for how long? How long will Romero’s cardiovascular system allow him this ability? Based on what I have seen on tape, specifically in the 2nd Whittaker fight, I would say Romero can be a threat to end the fight throughout the entire fight. Somehow Romero’s fatigue does not correlate with his effective cage fighting ability. Fatigue limits Romero’s ability to wrestling in MMA contests, but will Romero see a double leg opportunity and solidify top position? Romero played around in Jacare Souza’s guard, I doubt he’s going to have a problem with Adesanya’s. Inversely, Adesanya’s best attribute is his distance management, and he has one job in this fight, don’t get knocked out. It’s an interesting fight to think about. I’ve seen Romero fight through fatigue and demolish Robert Whittaker in the 5th round. But, if Romero is that fatigued against Adesanya, Adesanya KO’s him with a head kick instead of Whittaker scoring points with head kicks. I think I’ve seen enough on tape to say Yoel Romero Wins this fight by KO or even by decision. But I keep thinking about how old Yoel Romero is and how fighting is a young man’s game. I think I’m going Yoel Romero Round 3 KO.

Betting

Mark me down for Yoel Romero at +240. I forgot he backflipped Izzy in the face. Father Time respects a good backflip to the face, he won’t take Romero yet. Izzy is still reeling, no one has ever recovered from being backflipped in the face, HAMMER Yoel Romero +240.

• Yoel Romero Wins (+240)

Weili Zhang (-170) Joanna Jedrzejczyk (+150)

Weili Zhang (5'4", 63" reach, 30, China)
Weili Zhang is China’s first UFC champion. Joanna Jedrzejczyk is the biggest test of her career.

Things I like:

• Weili Zhang frequently throws an inside leg kick with her lead leg. She’s always touching her opponent and scoring points. A lot of her offense flows off of this kick.
• I think it’s fair to say Weili carries the most power in the 115 lbs women’s division. She will violently throw punches and elbows when she’s in the pocket with her opponent.
• Her elbows are vicious. In the clinch against the fence or even from her guard, Weili’s elbows can open her opponent up.
• Throwing knees from the Thai clinch is a natural reaction for Weili Zhang.
• I think everything I just mentioned can fit into a GIF from her last fight.

• I am a sucker for anyone who throws a spinning back kick. To me that is a wonderful technique that seems to be effective in fights. Weili throws a nice one.
• For a fighter with so much power, she’s not tremendously aggressive. I like how she fights behind that inside leg kick and lets the fight develop without her forcing anything.
• Weili Zhang was forced to leave her home and train in Thailand because of the coronavirus. She worked on her Muay Thai while she was there and that is very relevant for this fight.

Things I don’t:

• The Coronavirus forced Weili from her home to Thailand. From Thailand she was forced to travel to Abu Dhabi where she was quarantined. From Abu Dhabi she traveled to America less than a month before the fight. That is not an ideal fight camp.

• There is a massive unknown factor surrounding Weili Zhang. She went to China and was very impressive in her 1st round KO of Jessica Andrade. Joanna Jedrzejczyk is a massive step up in competition for Weili Zhang.
• She has not fought for more than 3 rounds, this will be new.

Joanna Jedrzejczyk (5'6", 65" reach, 32 years old, ATT, Poland)
Joanna Jedrzejczyk has stumbled from her reign as strawweight queen. She might’ve got a divorce or her friend got a divorce or something. She got breast implants and she’s claims her personal life is back in order. She's back to take what is hers, the strawweight strap.

Things I like:

• Joanna’s a high volume striker. Her best attribute is her ability to string punches and kicks together effortlessly. She’s more of a counter puncher when it comes to boxing but she utilizes the jab very well to find her range. Faints help her set up her high kicks.
• When you fight Joanna, a lot of fighters try and test her takedown defense. Joanna’s takedown defense has held up. She’s also very big for the weight class which helps her be strong in the clinch.
• Joanna is a 5 round fighter. She’s been her before, she has a 5 round main event cardiovascular system. Over the years, Joanna’s learned to attack legs and go to the body because that pays dividends in 5 round fights.

Things I don’t like:

• Rose Namajunas exposed Joanna’s boxing in back to back fights. Specifically, Joanna had a lot of trouble defending a left hook.
• Joanna is a volume fighter that strings together punches and kicks with fluidity. The problem is, she doesn’t carry much power. Not being able to gain respect from her opponent can be a problem.
• I didn’t like the grappling exchanges against Michelle Waterson. Michelle took her back like a spider monkey and nearly choked her out.
• Joanna is really good at fighting an aggressive fighter like Jessica Andrade. When a fighter mixes up their gameplan during the fight she has more trouble. Rose Namajunas was not consistently moving forward, she picked her spots and it was harder for Joanna to land.
• It seems like this 115 lbs weight cut for Joanna is getting to be a real problem as Joanna gets older. Waterson couldn’t test Joanna’s chin, but Thug Rose did. 115 lbs isn’t conducive for Joanna to take too many left hooks to the chin anymore.

Prediction

Joanna has a history of being susceptible to left hooks. Weili is very capable of connecting in short range and will have a power advantage in this fight. But, Joanna will have a little bit of a size advantage, and will look to use her jab and keep the fight in kicking range. Can Weili close the distance and land boxing strikes as Rose Namajunas did? Joanna is very strong in the clinch, but I have a feeling Weili will want to test that clinch. I have this weird feeling Weili is going to submit Joanna but The Fight Guy doesn’t operate off of feelings, the tape shows Weili having a lot of success counter striking an ultra aggressive Andrade in her last fight. Joanna isn’t aggressive. When Weili has looked impressive, she was counter striking an unber aggressive Jessica Andrade. Joanna will not move forward and be available for counter striking. We will learn a lot about Weili Zhang in this fight. Weili will have to close the distance on Joanna as Joanna looks to counter strike. From what I’ve seen on tape, Joanna wins a decision.

Betting

Man, this is tough. This is a close fight and Joanna is a reasonable bet at (+140), but I just have a weird feeling this is Weili’s moment. I don’t like Joanna’s chin at 115 lbs. I feel like Weili gets her out of there in the 1st or 2nd but those odds aren’t great. I’m passing on this but the tape says bet Joanna at +140, she has at least a 50% chance of winning this.

• Pass

Breakfast Baconator® Break

Breakfast Baconator® Break

Unfortunately, I won’t have anymore time this week to delve into more of the fights. For those of you just looking for my gambling advice I will list the rest of my plays for this card.

•Emily Whitmire +100

•Max Griffin +120

•Drakkar Klose +140

•Li Jingliang -170

After much deliberation at The Fight Guy INC, Jim’s picks will return for week 2 after an atrocious week 1.

“Romero, Zheng, Klose, Magny, i guess I could go with your boy Max as well but he could get hurt and submitted if not careful also read and interesting article about sugar Sean’s foot injury and how similarly other athletes were not able to return to top form. Footwork is everything so that could be something to look for plus ring rust. Kid is definitely a steroid cheater so no longer a fan if you can believe that 😤 I also say Romeo in more of wishing him to victory. Styler bender’s comments left bad taste in my mouth. We know how karma can be.”

•Yoel Romero +240

•Weili Zhang -170

•Drakkar Klose +140

•Neil Magny +160

•Max Griffin +120