UFC 249: It’ll Happen
UFC Coronavirus Recap
- It wasn’t looking good for Dana White. He needed a knockout. He threw everything he had at corona: the tribal sovereignty of native land, buying islands with international immunity to regulation, and stiff arming the media. But Uncle Dana was seeing triple: Mickey Mouse, Covid-19, and Dianne Feinstein’s $5 million worth of stock that she conveniently sold before the market crashed. But Raquel Pennington’s corner sent Uncle Dana back out for the 5th round to be finished. But, just like when Randy Marsh let the batdad know that he didn’t hear no bell, Dana is coming back!!! Hooks the body, flush upper cuts to the chin, and some spinning stuff. We have a fight in the fine city of Jacksonville, UFC 249: It’ll Happen.
- There can only be one dude on ESPN that talks about guys taking their shirts off and fighting to a hypothetical life or death within an 8-sided shape. The Fight Guy has officially endorsed Brett Okamoto and has cast Ariel Helwani aside. Helwani’s schtick of instigation and inserting himself into the narrative has weathered. This is the content TFG wants to consume.
- I need to make a redaction. I reviewed the Wendy’s Breakfast Baconator in the midst of a fast food breakfast sandwich war. I scored it a 9.7 and declared the clown dead, “If you come at the king you best not miss.”-Omar Little. I’m a rookie and that's a rookie score. I reevaluated Wendy’s Breakfast Baconator the other day and, unless you really love your own scent, it’s a 6.2 with a sodium advisory. The clown is very much alive and the Egg McMuffin is still king of breakfast, “The King stay the King.”-D’Angelo Barksdale. I’ve retired from the breakfast sandwich review game, I can’t compete with the professionals.
- Here’s a video of Kevin Bieksa implementing the superman punch against unsuspecting NHL tough guys.
Tony “El Cucuy” Ferguson (-170) Justin Gaethje (+150)
Remember Sybill Trelawney’s prophecy that was the foundation for the Harry Potter book series?
“…and either must die at the hand of the other, for neither can live while the other survives.”
I’m 100% convinced that applies to Tony and Khabib. There is no true lightweight champion until one of these guys kills the other. Tony is walking around with the original UFC championship belt and claiming this is his 3rd title defense. He has a point, there isn’t a definitive champion in the 155 lbs division until Tony Khabib fight. If Tony Ferguson beats Justin Gaethje, I think he might be the greatest lightweight of all time.
“El Cucuy” refers to the Mexican boogie man. Mexican mothers used to tuck their children into bed and sing, “You go to sleep or El Cucuy will come get you.” Foreign parents aren’t like American parents, they beat their children and operate off of fear. El Cucuy is a Mexican monster that lives in the mountains. When someone makes El Cucuy angry, he comes down from the mountains and snatches their body. Tony Ferguson trains in elevation at Big Bear Mountain, Justin Gaethje made him angry, they fight May 9th, in the fine city of Jacksonville, Florida.
Things I like:
- “Death by a thousand cuts” is how Tony Ferguson win wins fights. There seems to be a cascading effect when Tony fights; he’s not overwhelming in the 1st round, but he doesn’t get tired. His pressure will break you.
- I don’t think Tony gets enough credit for being a knockout threat. Tony’s hands are fast, and speed is power. Tony can end fights with his hands.
- Tony Ferguson is a Jiu Jitsu Wizard. He trains with Eddie Bravo at 10th planet and he is a diabolical threat from his guard: Triangles, armbars, mission control, leg locks, and violent elbows from the bottom.
- Tony sees punches well and doesn’t get trapped against the fence. His constant movement is a problem for his opponent.
- I want to give Tony’s chin credit. Lando Vannata smashed him with that head kick. It could not have been more flush. Tony not only recovered from the head kick, but he overcame that slippery Metros PCS sticker on the octagon.
Things I don’t like
- Tony’s style is all offense. He keeps his hands down and his chin high. He hasn’t paid the iron price for it yet. I’ve seen Tony get hit with right hands, specifically when he throws his inside leg kick.
- Tony has a tendency to turn his back to opponent. He can be too casual sometimes.
- Tony had major surgery on his left knee, will that be a factor in this fight?
Justin Gaethje enters the octagon to kill or be killed. Larry Merchant used to rank boxers on the “Gatti scale.” The “Gatti scale” measured how entertaining a fighter was to watch. Justin Gaethje is about as high as you can get on the “Gatti Scale.” So is Tony for that matter.
Things I like
- Justin Gaethje has a 3 fight 1st round KO streak. The man has power in his hands. This is most effective when he traps his opponents against the fence.
- Gaethje has powerful calf kicks and he consistently throws them. He likes to finish combinations off with leg kicks. He will kick you with both his right and left legs.
- Gaethje will attack the body with punches.
- Gaethje originally took this fight on 2 weeks notice. The fight was rebooked giving Gaethje more time to prepare.
Things I don’t like
- Justin Gaethje doesn’t have fast hands. He thrives in a war of attrition.
- Justin wants to fight in a phone booth. Fighters with good movement and technique have avoided that type of fight.
- Gaethje is known for his knockout power, but he gets hit a lot. Gaethje has been KO’d a couple times, his chin isn’t unbreakable.
- His cardio isn’t impressive and he doesn’t use his wrestling.
- Gaethje’s thing is breaking guys. I’m not sure Tony Ferguson can be broken.
Prediction
Strength/Weakness relationships are important to look at. Tony Ferguson has the best cardiovascular system in the world. Justin Gaethje’s cardio leaves a lot to be desired. Tony Ferguson will enjoy a 6" reach advantage. Justin Gaethje will pose a significant threat to land a clean right hand. It’s fair to say, Tony can be hurt with right hands, but he’s never been KO’d. I don’t see why Gaethje winning by KO is the most likely outcome for this fight. It’s hard to imagine Justin Gaethje winning a decision over Tony Ferguson but crazier things have happened. Every Tony Ferguson fight I have watched starts out competitive and then there's a cascading effect. Tony Ferguson uses his pressure and cardio to overwhelm his opponent. This fight will be no different. “El Cucuy” will take Justin Gaethje back to the mountains with him. I like Tony by decision, feel like the extra time helps Gaethje’s cardio.
Betting
Tony Ferguson should win this fight. I’d be surprised if he doesn’t. I feel like casual fans will get behind Justin Gaethje as the underdog and Tony’s odds will dip below (-150). I also don’t hate the odds of Tony winning by decision at (+525).
- Tony Ferguson Wins (-170)
- Tony Ferguson Wins by Decision (+525)
Francis Ngannou (-250) Jairzinho Rozenstruik (+240)
Francis Ngannou burst on the scene as a big scary dude who was knocking everyone out in Round 1. He received a title shot against Stipe Miocic and had a come to Jesus moment for 25 minutes. He was overconfident, showed up to the fight heavy, and spent 5 rounds on his back gasping for air. I think it’s fair to say Francis learned a lot about MMA from that fight, and has refined his game from a raw power striker to more of a skilled MMA fighter.
Things I like
- Punching Power. Francis spent his youth working in an African sand mine. He hits like he looks.
- Francis showed up to fight Stipe weighing 263 lbs, and he looked heavy. Since that fight, Francis has made a conscious effort to show up to fights in better shape.
- One of the skills Francis has worked on is a right calf kick. He carries a lot of power with that kick. If he starts landing that kick consistently from distance his opponent is in trouble.
- Stipe put Francis on his back for 5 rounds, but Stipe had a lot of success boxing. I actually think Francis’ takedown defense is very good. Cain Velasquez and Curtis Blaydes were both stuffed trying to shoot on Francis.
- Francis is a pretty decent counter striker. He likes his counter left hook.
- I’ve never seen Francis get knocked out, great chin.
Things I don’t like
- Timidity. Francis Ngannou vs Derrick Lewis was weird. Some fighters are really good at being the hammer and not great at being the nail. What happens if Francis isn’t going to run through Jairzinho with a 1st round KO?
- His cardio isn’t impressive.
- He has looked lost on his back, his Jiu Jitsu isn’t his strength.
Things I like
- Jairzinho has devastating power.
- 82 kick boxing fights. Jairzinho is an accomplished kick boxer. His kickboxing background allows him to string together combinations, often finishing with a head kick.
- Great chin. Alistair Overeem hit him as hard as he could and it didn’t phase Jairzinho.
- Counter striker. His counter left hook is probably his best weapon.
- He called out Francis Ngannou. Francis Ngannou has never been called out.
Things I don’t like
- Jairzinho struggles with the grappling aspect of MMA. When he fought Andrey Kovalev in Japan he tried to enter the ring like a greased up pig. The Japanese officials spent 30 minutes wiping him down with towels and gave him a yellow card, whatever that means.
- Jairzinho doesn’t check leg kicks well.
- Jairzinho can be too patient. He looks for his opportunities in fights and will capitalize, but he was 4 seconds away from losing to Overeem.
Prediction
This is the people’s fight. I had awesome seats to see this fight live in Columbus before that show was cancelled. Francis will have a size advantage in this fight, that size advantage is best utilized landing right calf kicks. Francis obviously has power, but if he starts chasing Jairzinho in Round 1, Jairzinho has the ability to be the matador. Francis will need to be a disciplined, technical striker that capitalizes on opportunities to win this fight. Jairzinho is a counter striker and, like Stipe, has the ability to avoid Francis’ early onslaught. He’s had a ton of kick boxing fights, he’s not going to be intimidated by Francis. Neither of these guys can do any of the Jiu Jitsu. Attrition is not Francis’ friend. Jairzinho has spent time at American Top team, don’t be surprised if he implements a little grappling in this fight. The first 3–4 minutes of this fight will be very dangerous for Jairzinho, but I really like Jairzinho here. He’s the more skilled striker and I see this fight getting out of the 1st round and Bigi Boy landing a head kick KO in the 3rd or winning a 2–1 decision. Let’s also not overlook the fact that Bigi Boy oozes confidence. He called out Francis Ngannou and has literally been counting down the days until he can fight him. If I’m Francis I am looking myself in the mirror and thinking, “Does he know something I don’t?”
Betting
I’m looking at the odds and Jairzinho winning a decision at +975 seems out of place. Jairzinho winning in Round 3 at +1750 seems like a reasonable gamble as well. I’m all in on Jairzinho.
- Jairzinho Wins (+240)
- Jairzinho Wins by Decision (+975)
- Jairzinho Wins in Round 3 (+1750)
Henry Cejudo (-275) Dominick Cruz (+250)
Henry Cejudo is receiving a little bit of backlash for calling out older fighters like Jose Aldo and Dominick Cruz, compared to the younger more deserving title challengers. But, he did save the 125 lbs division by knocking out TJ so we’ll give him the sovereignty to pick his first 135 lbs title defense.
Things I like
- From a young age, Henry Cejudo has learned how to compete at a high level. At the age of 16, he moved to Colorado Springs to train wrestling at the Olympic Training Center. In 2008 he won an olympic gold medal at the Beijing olympics. That compete level translates to his cage fighting ability. Cejudo excels when the fight moves out of Rounds 1 & 2 and into Rounds 3 & 4, where the fight is more about compete level than skill set.
- Cejudo’s best cage fighting skill is clinch fighting. The clinch is where Cejudo is most likely to score a takedown. He’s very good at solidifying top position.
- Henry’s hands are fast and speed is power.
- Durable fighter, solid chin.
Things I don’t like
- Cejudo gives up size to most 135 lbs fighters and he struggles with distance management. He eats a lot of inside leg kicks and calf kicks, and struggles against fighters with good perimeter movement.
- Round 1 isn’t Cejudo’s best round, for whatever reason he is a slow starter. I know he knocked TJ out, but I don’t see him coming out strong against Cruz.
- Cejudo doesn’t deal well with power. Round 1 of the Marlin Morales fight looked like a man versus a boy.
- Hasn’t proven himself at 135 lbs.
I try not to swear in life, but Dominick Cruz is such a cunt. He’s that dude you hate to play against, but would love to have on your team. His trash talking is incredible, just google, “Dominick Cruz Trash Talk” and have a little for yourself. Cruz talking about Henry Cejudo being weird because he was basically homeschooled at the olympic training facility is so funny, because there an element of truth to it. Now, I would like to warn everyone before they read further, Dominick Cruz has had all of the injuries. I’m pretty sure he needs to get KY Jelly injected into his feet so he can train everyday. Cruz hasn’t fought in about 4 years, who knows what Cruz will look like. He’s famously known for dismissing “ring rust” and he has come back from long injury layoffs before. A wise man once said, “I ain’t as good as I once was, but i’m as good once as I ever was.” so I’m going to operate as if D. Cruz can, again, come back off of a long layoff and look world class.
Things I like
- The best attribute of Dominick Cruz’s skill set is his diversity of attack. His movement and striking is unique.
- Cruz’s ability to see strikes well compliments his movement and allows him to avoid being hit.
- He’s a good wrestler. I haven’t really seen Cruz out wrestled in a fight.
- Cruz throws a nice flying knee that would deter any naked double legs.
- Cruz is tough. He took a beating in the Garbrandt fight, especially that 4th round and came back to win round 5. Cruz talks a lot, but he brings it to the octagon.
Things I don’t like
- Cruz fights with his hands down and relies on his vision to avoid getting hit. But, he fights with his hands down and he was hurt in his last fight from punches. Hands.
- Lacks power
- Hasn’t fought in 4 years.
- Injuries.
Prediction
Cejudo struggles against longer opponents with good perimeter movement. That is exactly what Dominick Cruz is. Inside leg kicks will continue to be a problem for Cejudo in this fight. Cejudo isn’t a tremendous MMA wrestler, he finds success with trips from the clinch but MMA wrestling isn’t olympic wresting. Cruz should thwart any wrestling from Cejudo. Which means we have a kickboxing match. I feel like Cruz is going to confuse Cejudo with his movement and his faints. I wouldn’t be surprised if Cruz starts to dominate this fight and look for the KO in the 4th or 5th round.
Betting
Cruz winning at (+250) seems off. He has a very real chance of winning this fight. This is a fist fight and if Cruz looks anything like the Dominick Cruz of old, he’s going to hit Henry Cejudo in the face a lot. I know Cruz isn’t known for his power, but (+1500) to win by KO seems silly. And (+4750) for Cruz to win in Round 5 is just fun. Dominick Cruz is getting no respect here.
- Dominick Cruz Wins (+250)
- Dominick Cruz Wins by KO (+1500)
- Dominick Cruz Wins in Round 5 (+4750)
Ryan Spann (-400) Sam Alvey (+325)
Things I like
- Spann’s best attribute is his jab. He has good size for 205 lbs and his size compliments his jab and 1–2 combinations.
- Spann’s long arms help him choke people. He will go out of his way to look for the guillotine choke.
- His elbows from top position are damaging.
Things I don’t like
- Spann can be tentative and not have a lot of output in fights.
- Fatigue will take effect as the fight enters Round 2.
- Little Nog had success boxing Spann. Spaan seems like a puncher rather than a skilled boxer that sees punches well.
I don’t hate Smilen Sam Alvey’s style. Cage fights, his wife won the American Top Model show and now gives him good fight advice in between rounds, and the dude is a hairless cat owner.
Things I like
- Very nice counter check right hook.
- Fast hands = power
- Experienced fighter.
- Durable.
Things I don’t like
- Doesn’t have size at 205 lbs
Prediction
I feel like fans are looking at this fight and thinking that it’s a mismatch because Ryan Spann has the towering physique. I actually feel like this is a great matchup for Sam Alvey. As a southpaw Alvey’s game is to move backwards, counter with his check right hook, and follow it up with his left hand. Spann is tentative against counter strikers and throws a lot of jabs. Smilin’ Sam does have fast hands and power. Mark me down for Smilin’ Sam Alvey slipping Superman Spann’s jab and cracking him with a right hook straight left combo for the win in Round 2
Betting
People are sleeping on Sam Alvey here.
- Sam Alvey Wins (+325)
