UFC 249: Somewhere on Earth
Coronavirus Recap
- Dana White just bought an island to be a conduit for international fighting in the midst of a pandemic. It will be a sad day when some corperut shrew takes over the company. For you who are whining, “Wahhh it’s irresponsible to have fight cards during the global pandemic wahhhh” welcome to the Mortal Kombat era of the UFC.
- Khabib isn’t going to make it to UFC Somewhere on Earth. Here are the facts: Khabib was training in San Jose, California at AKA, social distancing escalated due to covid-19 and Khabib traveled home to Dagestan, Khabib says Dana White told him the fight was going to be in Abu Dhabi, Khabib travels to Abu Dhabi, the fight is not in Abu Dhabi, Khabib isn’t allowed in to Abu Dhabi, Khabib travels to Dagestan, Khabib makes a statement about how he shouldn’t fight during the pandemic, Khabib pulls out of UFC:Somewhere on Earth. Occam’s Razor states, “The simplest explanation is most often correct.” I’m looking at this information and thinking, “Khabib didn’t want to fight Tony Ferguson under these conditions.” Remember the prophecy in Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, “…and either must die at the hand of the other, for neither can live while the other survives.” There is no true lightweight champion until one of these guys kills the other.
Tony “El Cucuy” Ferguson (-170) Justin Gaethje (+150)
El Cucuy is a sweet nickname, El Cucuy refers to the Mexican boogie man. Mexican mothers used to tuck their children into bed and sing, “You go to sleep or El Cucuy will come get you.” Yea, foreign parents aren’t like American parents, they beat their children and operate off of fear rather than acceptance. El Cucuy is a Mexican monster that lives in the mountains. When people are bad El Cucuy comes down from the mountain and snatches their bodies. That person is never seen again. Tony Ferguson trains at Big Bear Mountain at elevation, Justin Gaethje pissed him off, they fight on Saturday.
Things I like:
- Tony Ferguson is relentless. “Death by a thousand cuts” is how he wins fights. There seems to be a cascading effect when Tony fights; he’s not overwhelming in the 1st round but his pressure will break you. Once Tony finds his rhythm, starts salsa dancing with his feet, his opponent doesn’t seem to have a chance. Tony’s cardio is unmatched and will pressure for all 5 rounds.
- I don’t think Tony gets enough credit for being a skilled striker. Tony takes advantage of his 76" reach. He doesn’t sit down on many punches but rather throws a lot of volume: Left jab, Right jab, teep kicks, running inside leg kicks, well timed spinning elbows, step in elbows, and more. Tony’s style is “Death by a thousand cuts” so he doesn’t present a one punch knockout threat. But I also don’t think Tony gets enough credit for being a knockout threat. Tony’s hands are fast, and speed equals power.
- Tony Ferguson is a Jiu Jitsu Wizard. He trains with Eddie Bravo at 10th planet and he is a diabolical threat from his guard: Triangles, armbars, mission control, leg locks, and violent elbows from the bottom. I was very interested to see how Tony’s guard was going to matchup with Khabib’s top game. But, unfortunately Khabib isn’t here.
- Tony moves well. He’s never pinned against the fence. I’ve never seen anyone move like Tony, I would imagine this style is hard to prepare for. His reflexes are tremendous and sees punches coming. When he does get hit, he rolls with the punches.
- Tony has been hurt in fights but he recovers well. When Tony pulls guard his opponent sticks to him, this allows time for recovery. I also want to give credit to Tony's chin, that Lando Vannata head kick was flush. Tony was hurt but he recovered.
Things I don’t like
- Tony’s style is all offense. He keeps his hands down and his chin high. He hasn’t paid the iron price for it yet. I’ve seen Tony get hit with right hands, specifically when he throws his inside leg kicks.
- Tony has a tendency to turn his back to opponent. He can be too casual sometimes. MVP was casual and Douglas Lima knocked him out.
Things I like
- Justin Gaethje has a 3 fight 1st round KO streak. The man has power in his hands. This is most effective when he traps his opponents against the fence.
- Gaethje has tremendous leg kicks and he’s consistent. He likes to finish combinations off with leg kicks. He will kick you with both his right and left legs.
- Gaethje will attack the body with punches.
Things I don’t like
- Justin Gaethje isn’t going to be quicker than his opponent more often than not.
- Justin wants to fight in a phone booth. Fighters with good movement and technique have avoided that type of fight.
- Gaethje is known for his knockout power, but he gets hit a lot too. When Justin entered the UFC he said, “It’s only a matter of time before I get knocked out.” He was right, you can hurt Justin Gaethje with punches.
- Gaethje is also on the record as saying he doesn’t wrestle because he’s afraid to get tired in the octagon. He has world class wrestling and chooses not to use it. His cardio isn’t impressive.
- I’m not sure what his eye issues are but he has significant eye issues. He nearly pulled out of his last fight for an eye infection.
- His thing is breaking guys, he’s not going to break Tony Ferguson, Tony Ferguson breaks you.
Prediction
Strength/Weakness relationships are important to look at. Tony Ferguson has the best cardiovascular system in the world. Justin Gaethje’s cardio leaves a lot to be desired. Tony Ferguson will enjoy a 6" reach advantage. Justin Gaethje will pose a significant threat, especially in the 1st round, to land a clean right hand. But this is his only avenue for victory, he’s not going to win a decision. It’s fair to say, Tony can be hurt with right hands, but he’s never been KO’d. I don’t see why that’s the most likely outcome for this fight. Every Tony Ferguson fight I have watched starts out competitive and then theres a cascading effect. Tony Ferguson uses his pressure and cardio and overwhelms his opponents. This fight will be no different. “El Cucuy” will take Justin Gaethje back to the mountains with him. “El Cucuy” wins by 4th round KO.
Betting
- Tony Ferguson Wins (-170)
- Tony Ferguson Wins by KO (?)
- Tony Ferguson Wins in Round 4 (?)
California Senator Dianne Feinstein Sucks
Dianne Feinstein sold $5 million worth of stock in January before Covid-19 crashed the stock market. But don’t worry, Ms. Feinstein still has the moral high ground to petition Disney to stop UFC 249: Somewhere on Earth. Apparently, Dianne Feinstein thinks the Tachi Yokut Tribe can’t operate with sovereignty without her oversight.
Betting
For those of you who read The Fight Guy for his betting advice, Dominick Cruz (+245) seems out of place against Henry Cejudo. Cruz probably wins by decision.
