UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer

UFC Coronavirus Recap

• Michelle Waterson has been talking about becoming the first “Mom Champ” in the UFC. Mackenzie Dern fought last week and talked about her desire to be the first “Mom Champ.” Last I checked, Amanda Nunes used fancy science to get Nina Ansaroff pregnant. Sorry ladies, you’re looking at the inaugural, “Mom Champ”…Double Champ

• Gilbert Burns is going to get the next title shot at 170 lbs. I remember watching Burns at 155 lbs against Dan Moret thinking, “Who’s going to beat this guy? This is the guy that beats Khabib.” Unfortunately, the weight cut was too much for Burnsy, but he’s filled out nicely at 170 lbs. Something about Kamaru Usman vs. Gilbert Burns just seems right.
• Were at the Apex for the foreseeable future. The Apex’s octagon has a 25 foot diameter compared to the standard 30 foot diameter. Smaller octagon=more action #ShrinkTheOctagon.

a=diameter of octagon X 0.414, a=length of octagon side

• My boy Jason Herzog has been struggling as of late. He nearly let Anthony Smith die in the octagon, and he didn’t take a point for a terrible fence grab that cost Blagoy Ivanov his win bonus. I’ll still refer to Jason Herzog as the best in the business, but he’s been put on notice.

Aljamain Sterling (-110) Cory Sandhagen (+100)

For the people who follow the sport of MMA, this is the marquee matchup of UFC 250. I was surprised to learn that this wasn’t going to be for the vacant 135 lbs title. It looks like the UFC wants to book Jose Aldo vs. Petr Yan on Fight Island and the winner of this fight will receive a title shot.

Aljamain Sterling (5' 7", 71" reach, 30 years old, Serra Jiu-Jitsu)

I have a little skin in this one. My buddy wrestled with Aljamain Sterling at SUNY Cortland. Would be cool to see him fight for the title.

Things I Like

• Aljo is a grappling wizard. He’s really good off of his back with throwing up arm bars and triangles and is a problem when he takes your back. Aljo is one of those guys that can throw kicks and punches freely and not worry about being taken down because his Jiu Jitsu is that good. Single leg takedowns seem to be his means to take the fight to the ground.
• High volume striker. Aljo’s a kicker, he spams front kicks to the body. They don’t carry power but they will score points. He will mix in some well timed spinning elbows and I like his knees in the clinch against the fence. I think it’s sneaky when Aljo throws a straight punch and follows through with a high kick. Inversely, I like when Aljo throws a high kick and follows it up with a straight punch.
• Aljo is consistent with his faints. His striking is diverse and hard to prepare for.
• Very high fight IQ. When Aljo is up 2 rounds, he will fight a smart 3rd round. When he has his opponent hurt, he won’t overreact.

Things I don’t Like

• Marlon Moraes caught Aljo with a flying knee and it was a terrible KO. Aljo can still be caught with a well timed flying knees.
• Not a great boxer. The only times I’ve seen Aljo really use his boxing is when his opponent was hurt. He’s not a good boxer and is vulnerable to counter strikes when he throws boxing combinations.
• Doesn’t carry power.

Cory Sandhagen (5'11", 70" reach, 28 years old, Elevation)

Things I like

• Size. 5'11 at 135 lbs is unique.
• Sandhagen is really effective with attacking the body with punches.
• He throws a left hook to the liver-right calf kick combination that has been effective in every fight.
• Sandhagen has tremendous vision when it comes to striking defense and striking offense. He sees strikes coming and he can read his opponent’s defense.
• I really like Sandhagen’s flying knee. He throws it every so often and I have a feeling it could be effective in this fight.
• Between Iuri Alcântara’s armbar and John Lineker’s guillotine, Sandhagen will not tap. Seems like one of those guys that will chose death over defeat.

Things I don’t Like

• Sandhagen is really good, but his grappling hasn’t been tested. When he’s in the scramble he’s always attacking submissions. I haven’t seen him face a wrestler whose gameplan is to put him on his back and win rounds, and I think that is what we will have here.

Prediction

Sandhagen is the superior striker. Aljo’s high volume style won’t work here, he will end up getting countered. If Aljo is going to win this fight, it will be on the ground. His grappling is excellent, he could wrap Sandhagen up in a submission or grind out a decision. I haven’t seen enough to say Sandhagen will stifle Aljo’s wrestling, this is a ? that will be answered after this fight. But, I also haven’t seen Aljo be this dominant MMA wrestler, so I’m inclined to think Sandhagen’s striking will be the difference in this fight. I see the 1st round being a closely contested round and Sandhagen’s body work taking effect in Rounds 2 and 3. I can’t get that Marlon Moraes flying knee out of my head, that was a really bad KO. Sandhagen mixes in a nice flying knee. I wouldn’t be surprised if Sandhagen won by KO in the 3rd round.

Betting

I’m rooting for my buddy’s friend here but, The Fight Guy will never be compromised. Sandhagen’s a good bet here, “Micky Mantle don’t care about you, so why should you care about him. Nobody cares.”-Sonny LoSpecchio

• Sandhagen Wins (+100)
• Sandhagen Wins by KO (+500)
• Sandhagen Wins in Round 3 (+1750)