UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal (Fight Island)
UFC @ the APEX: Poirier vs. Hooker Recap
- Dan Hooker vs. Dustin Poirier was a fight of the year candidate. It was the unique combination of a slobberknocker and a war of attrition. Poirier’s 5 round experience and will to win was the difference in the conclusive 5th round, but I want to give Dan Hooker the credit he deserves. Hooker showed that he is a legitimate title contender at 155 lbs. I also want to highlight Poirier’s walkout song, “The Boss”-James Brown is a tune.
- Mike Perry has the “it” factor. I’m not sure if he’ll ever be a 170 lbs title contender, but I do know he saved a ton of money on paying a fight team. He took sooooooooo much criticism from the MMA community for not having a “real” cornerman. Well, his girlfriend worked out just fine. Half of the time a corner consists 3 dudes sucking away all the oxygen from a dude in a cage fight to the hypothetical death. I hope he gets the tax folk off of his back, the people want to watch Mike Perry fight.
- …Well, that didn’t age well. I’m not sure Michael will be fighting in the octagon anytime soon. I hope he gets the help he needs and I hope the elderly man he KO’d in Texas bar doesn’t have lasting injuries.
- I just want to give a quick shout out to Julian Erosa. The Fight Guy and The Fight Girl saw him get violently KO’d in Rochester, I was happy to see him get a big win against Sean Woodson.
Kamaru Usman (-300) Jorge Masvidal (+250)
Usman recently took his talents to Colorado so he could train with Trevor Wittman. He spent a lot of time sparring with Cosmo Alexandre. For those of you thinking, “That’s a sweet name who’s that?” He’s the dude that maimed Sage Northcutt in ONE. Usman is known for his wrestling, it will be interesting to see how his striking has evolved.
Things I Like
- Usman is a massive 170 lbs cage fighter and he’s as strong as he looks. Size matters in cage fighting and Usman has it in spades.
- The clinch against the fence is where Usman excels. He wants to pressure his opponent backwards so he can pinch him against the fence with a double leg. Sound familiar? When Usman connects his hands in the clinch against the fence, his opponent will be picked up and slammed on their back.
- Just like Curtis Blaydes a couple weeks ago, Usman doesn’t care about the jiu jitsu. He wants to take his opponent down and wrestling ride them so they stay down. He utilizes wrist control and is very effective at mat returning his opponent when they use the fence to stand up. His primary method of taking his opponent down is connecting his hands from the clinch against the fence, but he will also look for a snatch single leg in space. His wrestling is far more effective against the fence than it is in space, but he’s still a threat to takedown his opponent in space.
- I love Usman’s stabbing front kick to the body. I think that’s his best striking attribute.
- Usman does a pretty good job switching stances. Any time a fighter frequently switches stances it gives his opponent two problems to solve.
- Excellent cardio. Usman is bodied up but doesn’t struggle with fatigue.
- Usman has a 77" reach and he does a good job managing striking distance with a jab and that stabbing kick to the body.
- That right uppercut to the Colby’s body was effective. Usman will also utilize this uppercut from the clinch.
Things I Don’t Like
- Colby Covington is not known for his kickboxing but gave Kamaru Usman all he could handle on the feet. He struggles when things break down and become chaotic, that’s where Colby had most of his success. Even Tyron Woodley, albeit limited, had success when he moved forward and created an unstructured striking situation. When Usman resets, he does a pretty good job of pumping that jab and controlling distance. But, Usman absolutely can be hit and isn’t the 170 lbs champion because of his kickboxing.
- Usman isn’t a high level jiu jitsu guy. That’s why he trained so much with Gilbert Burns. When Usman has top position you can find a kimura. You probably won’t be able to finish the fight with it, but you can use it to sweep Usman. Usman also has a bad habit of eating elbows from from the dude he’s holding down with wrestling rides.
- Usman has a huge upper body and tiny legs. He’s also complained about having terrible knees. If I’m Masvidal, I’m trying kick his knees every chance I get.
- I don’t like how he crawls forward to begin the fight. With Masvidal’s history, I feel like he should just Round 1 standing up.
- Usman body is there to be kicked.
“Jorge Masvidal is an overnight sensation, 15 years in the making.”-Jack Slack. My favorite Jorge Masvidal moment was when he fought Darren Till in Liverpool. My buddy was in the midst of saying, “Till is too big, Masvidal can’t hurt him” right before Masvidal ended the fight. I looked at him and said, “He looks pretty hurt to me, Matt.”
Things I Like
- Fighting is in Masvidal’s blood. When things break down and become chaotic, his reactions take over, it’s natural for him. Striking out of the clinch and when Masvidal is throwing combinations from scrambles are good examples.
- Masvidal has an awesome kick to the body. He can aim it at Usman’s knee too.
- If you throw a body kick, Masvidal will catch it and launch a hook to your head every time. I haven’t seen him catch a stabbing front kick that Usman throws, but I am interested to see if Masvidal can catch or perry that kick and counter with a punch to the head.
- Masvidal is fast when he moves forward and throws boxing combinations. He closes distance quickly. His combination that KO’d Till was a good example and he also used his quickness to close the distance and land on Wonderboy.
- Similar to Anthony Pettis, Masvidal isn’t known for his jiu jitsu, but he’s excellent on the ground. Demian Maia praised his jiu jitsu ability after their fight.
- Super intelligent striker. His fight with Wonderboy was a joy to watch.
- After all Masvidal says about “crotch sniffers” and how Usman going to “Magnetize on his crotch” he’s kind of a decent wrestler himself. His single legs are effective and when he doesn’t take his opponent to the ground he comes up swinging.
Things I Don’t Like
- Size matters. Masvidal is a small 170 lbs fighter. He struggled with Cowboy’s jab and Till’s reach gave him some problems.
- I understand Demian Maia is the Jiu Jitsu Wizard of all Wizards, but I was surprised to see Maia have so much success with his single leg takedown attempt.
- Masvidal does his best work when his opponent comes to him. He likes to spend time around the cage. He can’t do that in this fight, he needs to go forward. In the immortal words of John Tortorella, “Safe is Death.”
- He was getting a little tired in the Diaz fight.
Prediction
MMA wrestling is different than Olympic wrestling because there’s a cage. Usman is at his best when he pinches his opponent against the cage and works to connect his hands for a takedown. Usman is not as effective taking his opponent down without the cage to provide leverage. The Leon Edwards fight was a decent example of this, Edwards stuffed the takedowns in space and didn’t allow himself to be pinched against the cage. In that fight Edwards exposed Usman’s striking, I had it 1–1 going into the 3rd round. Usman’s striking has become significantly better, but Masvidal still has an advantage on the feet. Masvidal can not backup in this fight, “Safe is Death.” He’s very quick at closing the distance and landing combinations. That needs to happen early and often if Masvidal is going to win this fight. Usman is known for his pace and cardio but if Masvidal can hurt Usman early, his cardio won’t be the same. Masvidal needs to come out hot and hurt Usman early if he wants to win this fight. Maybe he wins by 2nd round KO or maybe he hurts Usman early and Usman has to fight through adversity. But if Masvidal is backing up and letting Usman’s jab and front kick dictate the pace, he’s in trouble. Masvidal has fantastic body kicks and those need to be recalibrated towards attacking Usman’s chicken legs. But this entire fight comes down to, can Masvidal stop the takedown and bring the fight to Usman early and often? When I heard Masvidal take this fight I figured, “Usman’s wrestling and physicality is going to prevail.” I still think Usman’s wrestling and physicality is the difference in this fight. Usman is relentless with his wrestling. He didn’t have success in Round 1 vs Leon Edwards, but he came just as hard in Round 2 and his wrestling was the difference. I think Usman retains his belt by decision in Abu Dhabi, his wrestling should win Rounds 4 and 5 definitively. But, after rewatching these old fights, I think Masvidal is going to put on a tremendous performance on 6 days notice that will warrant a rematch. I can’t wait for this fight.
Betting
For those of you interested in betting on this fight, I just scanned the odds. The only thing that stands out to me is Masvidal winning by submission at +2000. Usman’s strength isn’t jiu jitsu, that’s why he always trained with Gilbert Burns. Masvidal does not get enough credit for being good off of his back. Masvidal is going to go forward and go for it, he doesn’t seem like the shy type. Usman is not going to finish him early and who’s to say Masvidal doesn’t slap on a triangle, armbar, or even a kimura in Round 3? Usman’s muscled up shoulders may just provide the perfect canvas for a beautiful triangle, wouldn’t that be something? Have some fun, take a shot as Masvidal by Submission.
- Masvidal Wins by Submission (+2000)
