UFC Auckland, New Zealand
It’s 2 for 1 at Chipotle today (Friday) if you wear a hockey jersey. Pretty good deal. Anniversary of 1980 Miracle on Ice. I think there’s like a limit of 10 per order.
UFC New Mexico Recap
•Alright, I’m on to you DC and Brendan Fitzgerald. In the main event I heard, “Jiu Jitsu Wizard” twice and my “Squeaky wheel gets the grease” analogy I featured in UFC New Mexico. That seems like too much of a coincidence. I grew up playing hockey. I have no idea if, “Jiu Jitsu Wizard” is a common phrase within the Jiu Jitsu community, but I do know I made it up. The UFC is most likely sending Brendan Fitzgerald to Auckland. If I hear, “mutant on the ground” during UFC New Zealand we have confirmation of a UFC ghost reader, which would be pretty cool.
•The Fight Guy has come a long way. When I started this blog back at UFC New Jersey, the founding principle was, “Don’t bet the Polish.” Now, I was just screwing around, I don’t have anything against the Polish, but I did see Poland as a developing MMA country. And, by definition, behind when it came to MMA skills and development. Today, TFG was one of the few to believe in Jan Blachowicz’s “Legendary Polish Power.” Jan Blachowicz could be the guy that dethrones Jon Jones, think about that one year ago, what a time. Now, there will be a debate as to who will get the title shot, Dominick Reyes or Jan Blachowicz? Dominick Reyes is looking for a rematch. His argument is, “The judges screwed me, I should’ve won that fight.” Jan Blachowicz’s argument is, “I’ve won 7 out of my last 8 and I just knocked out Corey Anderson in a number 1 contender match.” Jan Blachowicz should get the title shot based on merit. Jon Jones vs. Dominick Reyes was a close fight, it wasn’t a screw job. If Dominick Reyes is ready to die on the “the judges screwed me” hill, he owes Volkan Oezdemir a fight.
•Apparently, people are “upset” about Diego Sanchez not continuing after taking an illegal knee to the head. This happens all the time and it’s annoying. With Yair Rodriguez vs. Jeremy Stephens, fans were “upset” the fight ended with a no contest after 10 seconds. Well, blame the guy who poked Jeremy Stephens in the eye. People complained about Todd Duffee not being able to continue after receiving an eye poke. Would you want to fight a 250 lbs dude with the nickname, “lights out” when you can only see from one eye? If Anthony Smith said he couldn’t continue because Jon Jones illegally kneed him in the head, blame the guy who illegally kneed his opponent in the head. People want to see Stipe fight DC for the trilogy. Well, if Stipe didn’t need to recover from retina surgery after DC eye poked him 4–5 times, I bet that fight could have happened by now too. UFC fighters are elite tough guys doing elite tough guy stuff. The idea of someone posting on Facebook or reddit saying, “this guy’s looking for a way out” or “he’s a quitter” is astonishing to me. And you know who’s at fault for this? The referees. The rules are written in stone, eye pokes are illegal, illegal knees are…illegal, grabbing the fence is illegal etc. If referees actually enforced these rules there would be an incentive for fighters to not do the things that lead to no contests and disqualifications. This specifically applies to eye pokes. Look at this. The referee gave Li Jingliang a warning for this. A warning, “Don’t do that again or I’m taking a point.” Li Jingliang was being choked and reverted to his primal instincts of survival by digging both of his fingers into Jake Mathews’ eye sockets…he received a warning. The UFC would be a better place if every ref took a lesson from “Swaggy G.”
I don’t blame Diego for not continuing, he got his head smashed by an illegal knee from a trained killer. Diego had a massive gash on his forehead and was bleeding from his eye. The way the UFC works is they give you $$$ for showing up and you get a lot more $$$ if you win. Well guess what? Diego wasn’t winning, he got his head smashed by an illegal knee, and now he got his win $$$. The more fights you have in the UFC the more money you are paid. Diego has a ton of fights in the UFC and he probably walked away with an EXTRA $200,000 for winning. Good for Diego. Hope you took TFG’s advice, Diego Wins in Round 3 (+2000), because apparently, a DQ counts for that. With all the hate going around for Diego and his trainer, the guy is 3 — 1 in his last 4 fights at 38 years old…In conclusion, referees need to take lessons from “Swaggy G” and deduct points, and there’s only one person fans should be “upset” with…The dude who threw the illegal knee…Diego secured the bag.
•There is an interesting dynamic I have noticed over the past couple of years unique to the fight game: Racism doesn’t matter, Homophobic slurs do not matter, and PC “Cancel Culture” does not apply. Normally, these things do matter. I’ll give you an example. I like the New York Rangers, I would cry if they ever won the Stanley Cup. I’ve been a fan since 96-97 when Wayne Gretzky signed there as a free agent, childhood team, one of those things, whatever…They traded for a defensemen not too long ago named Tony DeAngelo. He’s 24 years old today, when he was 17 in junior hockey he allegedly called his teammate a racial slur and was suspended. Tony DeAngelo is still vilified within the hockey community by some for this incident. This is how the world works, Donald Sterling was forced to sell the LA Clippers because he was racist. If you are caught using homophobic slurs or racial slurs there are consequences, and rightfully so. This does not apply to the fight game, it’s a very interesting dynamic to me because I can’t understand why. Floyd Mayweather literally called Conor McGregor a “Faggot” in the lead up to their boxing match.
Later, Conor McGregor referred to himself as “half black from the waist down.” Conor also crossed the line multiple times in his lead up and aftermath of the Khabib Nurmagomedov fight. More recently, UFC fighter Mike Perry is upset with, actor, Michael Jai White for some comments he made about Kimbo Slice. Mike Perry, an objective white man, is calling Michael Jai White the N word on twitter.
And just now, our 135 lbs champion, Henry Cejudo, created a new nickname for 135 lbs title contender Aljamain Sterling, “Aljamima” Sterling. Aljamain Sterling is a black man and “Aljamima” is a reference to Aunt Jemima.
“Old Aunt Jemima”-Billy Kersands is the inspiration for a brand of pancakes called, “Aunt Jemima” in the 19th century. Recently freed slave at the time “Nancy Green” was chosen as the branding face. I believe the appeal of the brand was after the Civil War, white folks still liked the way it was with slaves serving them food. Aunt Jemima filled the role of a joyous, African-American “meemaw” that delivered great pancakes. Now, that was in the 19th century, a different time, I’m not saying take Aunt Jemima syrup off the shelf, nor do I think Aljamain Sterling is offended. But, what Henry Cejudo did is objectively racist.
Name another industry where there are literally no consequences for any of the above. Inversely, Peloton shoots a commercial with a husband giving a wife an exercise bike. Cancel Culture freaks out on twitter because it’s “sexist” and Peloton makes a statement that the’re wrong. The next Peloton commercial is a husband and wife working out in their home “together”…with the husband riding the bike. For Pete’s sake, in Tyson Fury’s last fight, he dressed up as a Mexican and road a float to the ring for 20 minutes while being serenaded by a Mexican women singing the Mexican national anthem…he’s English. None of this bothers me, It’s interesting to me how PC culture can’t touch the fight game.
Dan Hooker (-130) Paul Felder (+120)
Dan Hooker (6’0”, 75” reach, 30 years old, City Kickboxing)
In the 19th century for about 70 years the British sent their prisoners to Australia in “Convict Ships.” You don’t need too much imagination to think Hooker might be a descendant of one of those “Convict Ships.” I’m unaware of the logistics of 19th century Australian/New Zealand relations, but, right or wrong, that’s what I think about when I see guys like Dan Hooker and Alexander Volkanovski. This is a young Dan Hooker having a fight with a New Zealand heavyweight before he honed his skills. You don’t do this unless fighting is in your blood. It’s either that or Hooker is self conscious about how good looking he is so he gravitated toward fighting to overcompensate for it.
Things I like:
- Hooker’s biggest strength is his size at 6'0" and 75" reach. To begin each fight hooker will have a feeling out period where he finds his range. He will throw leg kicks, throw faints, and avoid being hit until he finds his range. This is a little bit of a process but when Hooker lands his jab that's a sign he’s getting comfortable.
- Hooker likes to go first. Once Hooker has found his range he’s hard to beat. His jab is relentless and his leg kicks can hit your calf from even farther out. His leg kicks carry power, Al Iaquinta was compromised from legs kicks in their fight.
- Hooker has an amazing chin, he’s never been knocked out.
- Hooker’s nickname is “Hangman” because his long arms help him choke people. If you make a mistake Hooker will choke you.
- Haven’t seen the kid get tired, I like his cardio.
- He features a sneaky, well timed, standing knee to the body that’s effective.
- Capable of getting up if taken down. has also shown urgency to get up and not settling in bottom position.
- He has decent takedown defense.
- City kickboxing is his gym and they seem to be on fire, MMA gyms matter.
Things I don’t like:
- Hooker’s hands are down when he fights and he can be hit because of it. Gilbert Burns is probably the best example.
- Hooker’s leg is there to be hit, Gilbert Burns had a little bit of success with this before he was KO’d by Hooker.
- I find that spinning kicks to the gut are effective against Hooker. Burns threw one that was effective and obviously Barboza has massive success.
- Hooker is super effective when he finds his range because he’s a skilled striker and has a long reach. But what happens when he doesn’t find his range and is uncomfortable? Well, that’s what happened in the Barboza fight. Kicking range is longer than boxing range and Hooker looks to struggle against kickers.
- Hooker isn’t a pressure fighter. He wants to maintain his range as priority number one and this often means moving backwards. This is fine but it’s not the recipe to beat a taekwondo guy.
- I’m not impressed with Hooker’s hand speed. You need hand speed to thwart a guy trying to close the distance.
- I haven’t seen Hooker fight off of his back for an extended period of time.
Paul Felder (5’11”, 70” reach, 35 years old, Roufusport)
Paul Felder was a theater major at University of the Arts. My wife was rather ticked when Felder said, “I don’t have to do this, I could just become an actor.” after his win in Abu Dhabi. His point was, he’s here to be the best in the world. I sent Paul Felder an Instagram message predicting him and Justin Gaethje main eventing the Wells Fargo Center. He replied, “I like the sound of that.” So he and I are really tight. I do like Felder’s chances against gaethje, but Dan Hooker could be the toughest fight of his life.
Things I like:
- When I think of Paul Felder I think of a fighter that excels when the fight turns violent. If a fight turns into a question of who can push through pain and intelligently deliver violent strikes, I’d put my money on Paul Felder every time. He fought Mike Perry for 5 rounds after breaking his forearm in the 1st round on some spinning stuff. He fought James Vick with a collapsed lung. In a dog fight, Paul Felder will come out with the bone.
- Paul Felder carries power. He’s a big 155 lbs fighter and those elbows from the clinch or top position will end a fight. Charles Oliveira tapped to strikes against Felder.
- Felder has a taekwondo background and I love his spinning back kick to the gut. I wish he would have thrown it more when he broke his right forearm in the Mike Perry fight. That taekwondo background helps his calf kicks too.
- Felder has never been knocked out. He has an excellent chin.
- Because he has such an impressive striking threat, his offensive takedown attempts can be successful. Felder will try to take his opponent down to put a stamp on rounds.
- Charles Oliveira had him in a deep darce choke for the majority of round 1. He didn’t get submitted. Oliveira also took his back and tried choking him, he didn’t get submitted. Charles Oliveira has the most submissions in the UFC. I think you have to give Felder credit for being able to defend them.
- Felder does a pretty good job of getting his guard up after throwing strikes.
- I like Felder in the clinch position against the fence. I feel like he can use that opportunity to land elbows.
- When Felder is backed up against the fence he likes to throw a spinning backfist counter. It’s high risk because he broke his arm doing this technique.
- You know how DC always says, “You just need to get close if you’re the smaller fighter.” Felder will walk forward. Violence will not deter Felder’s adherence to his gameplan.
- Felder kind of wades into striking range looking to see what you’re going to do against a longer fighter. I think he’s very capable of reading his opponent’s strikes and countering when he does this.
Things I don’t like:
- Felder is at a 5" reach disadvantage in this fight. No matter how good you are at closing the distance, needing to close the distance is a disadvantage. On multiple occasions James Vick came very close to Felder’s chin with a right hand.
- Barboza had a similar reach advantage as Felder will face in this fight. Felder was on the losing side of some wild boxing exchanges because of it.
- He doesn’t have great takedown defense, Barboza and Charles Oliveira both took him to the ground.
- Felder isn’t a black belt in Jiu Jitsu. He’s strong as an ox and is capable on the ground, but a Jiu Jitsu wizard will have an advantage with Felder on the ground.
- I don’t like that Felder had to travel to Auckland, New Zealand to fight in Hooker’s home town. That travel is hard and Felder will need to acclimate himself to his new environment.
- In Felder’s last fight he claimed he had the worst weight cut of his life. He’s said this weight cut has gone much smoother but fighters lie.
Prediction
My prediction for this fight is the winner faces Justin Gaethje for a title shot in Philadelphia at the Wachovia Center. I think both of these guys beat Gaethje so there’s a lot at stake here. And, again, Felder and I are really tight so I’ll prolly get some tickets to that one.
The case for Hooker winning this fight is simple. Use your reach advantage and keep this fight in boxing range, land your jab, and smash Felder’s lead leg, win a decision. Hooker is very adherent to a gameplan. Watch the 1st round of the Marc Diakiese fight. He’s not going to be countered by Diakiese no matter how loud the boos are. The entire gameplan with Iaquinta was jab and move and smash the lead leg because Hooker had a functional reach advantage. I believe Felder is a better version of Al and we are going to see if that gameplan will work against Felder.
This is a close fight. Hooker has a 5" reach, it will be a challenge for Felder to close the distance. Felder needs to find the clinch against the fence, shoot some double legs, do whatever he needs to do to take this fight away from the end of Hooker’s boxing range. If Hooker maintains that boxing range and starts chopping Felder’s leg I think Felder is in trouble. I specifically am looking for Felder to throw that spinning back kick to the gut to begin the fight. That kick can be thrown outside of Hooker’s boxing range and we saw Hooker go down from kicks to the body in his Barboza fight. Felder will also try and attack Hooker’s leg with calf kicks. Felder had trouble trying to get into boxing range against Barboza because of Barboza’s boxing. Fortunately Hooker’s hands are not as quick as Barboza’s so it’s very possible Felder can have success closing the distance without eating too many counter strikes. Hooker’s hand are also almost always down. Felder has a ton of power at 155 lbs and Felder is capable of a knockout punch because Hooker’s hands are down. Where Felder does have an advantage is taking this fight to deep water. Felder is confident in his ability to fight well through pain and if Felder can have success closing the distance and hitting Hooker, I can see Felder running away with this fight in rounds 4 and 5.
Paul Felder is one of my favorite fighters, but I think there is too much stacked against him here. He had to set up shop in a foreign land literally on the other side of the world. I’m an attribute guy and I can’t ignore the functional reach advantage. I think Hooker is going to have too much success with his distance management. Felder’s never been knocked out so no reason to believe Hooker is going to win by knockout, Hooker wins a decision in his hometown. I’m not real confident in that prediction, I can also see Felder winnings rounds 4 and 5 and having a big comeback win in Auckland. But if you ask me who I think is going to win, my gut says Hooker.
Betting
There is no good bet to make on this fight in my opinion. I’ve thought about it and I’m really excited to watch a good fight.
- Pass
Michal Oleksiejczuk (-130) Jimmy Crute (+110)
Michal Oleksiejczuk (6'0", 74" reach, 24 years old, Poland)
Oleksiejczuk was caught by USADA testing positive for an estrogen blocker some time after his debut fight. I’m not sure what to make of it, Oleksiejczuk has almost zero muscle and is undersized. He served his suspension and came back looking a little bigger.
Things I like:
- I’ve seen Oleksiejczuk weather Khalil Rountree’s explosive strikes. I have to give him credit for a decent chin and good striking defense.
- Oleksiejczuk is young, he can make large improvements from fight to fight.
- He brings a unique amount of movement to the light heavyweight division. He puts a pace on his opponent and likes to punch to the body as a volume puncher.
Things I don’t like:
- He’s too small for 205 lbs. He should fight at 185 lbs. His body is full of fat and he doesn’t carry power. Gian Villante was going to KO him before he was caught with that live shot.
- Because of his size, and lack of strength he’s vulnerable in the clinch.
- In his first time with a light heavyweight in top position he was submitted.
- This fight in is Auckland, New Zealand. Oleksiejczuk is from Poland. This is a ton of travel. He’s young, he probably doesn’t know how to prepare for a fight a million miles away.
Jimmy Crute (6'3", 73" reach, 23 years old, Australia)
Things I like:
- Crute has a pretty diverse striking attack. Spinning back kick to the body, high kicks, low kicks, left hooks to the body etc. Crute uses a diverse set of skills that keep his opponent guessing.
- Crute does have power in his strikes.
- He’s a brown belt in Jiu Jitsu. He’s not mutant on the ground status, but he played with Paul Craig and subbed him in the 3rd. He also did fairly well with Misha Cirkunov on the ground before being submitted.
- This fights in his backyard, no travel.
Things I don’t like:
- Crute’s takedown defense needs work. He gets taken down at will by his opponents.
- Crute can fatigue in fights. It’s a pacing issue that he will work on with experience.
Prediction
Crute is better everywhere. Oleksiejczuk will want to push the pace but Crute’s power is enough to dedicate this fight with his right hand. If Oleksiejczuk manages to take this fight to the ground, Crute has shown he can reverse and threaten submissions. If Crute takes this fight to the ground he can threaten submissions. I’m not sure I see a reasonable path to victory here for Oleksiejczuk. It’s possible he puts a pace on Crute and Crute fatigues but i don’t see it. I think Crute hurts Oleksiejczuk i the 1st round with a right hand and finishes the fight. Crute 1st Round KO.
Betting
I feel like Jimmy Crute should be a -200 favorite. My spidey sense is going off here. I’m not sure why he’s an underdog. You should bet Jimmy Crute as an underdog. I feel like this Polish guy is selling wolf tickets. Oleksiejczuk is a tiny 205 lbs pressure fighter. Crute have a little power. I’d be surprised if the dude dabbing before his fights doesn’t win by KO in the 1st round. By the time the fight rolls around Jimmy Crute will be the favorite.
- Jimmy Crute Wins (+110)
- Crute Wins in Round 1 (+450)
- Crute Wins by KO (+400)
Yan Xiaonan Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Karolina Kowalkiewicz (5'3", 64" reach, 34 years old, Poland)
Yan Xiaonan (5'5", 63" reach, 30 years old, China)
Only got to two fights this week, sorry guys.
