UFC 243: Melbourne, Australia
UFC Copenhagen Recap
When I was in high school my friend and I participated in a YMCA pickup basketball game. I snatched an offensive rebound and saw my friend standing wide open in the corner. I believe I remember my friend referring to himself as, “The Larry Bird of Basketball.” So I pass the ball to “The Larry Bird of Basketball” and he, what is best described as, “Winds up” for a 3-pointer. As my friend gets close to releasing the ball, he attracts the attention of a rather lanky African American gentlemen. As soon as the ball was released, or maybe a moment after, my friend’s basketball shot was redirected by an equal, and very opposite force. It was at that moment “The Larry Bird of Basketball” realized, basketball was not his game. My friend, to this day, has never played another game of basketball…The Fight Guy has returned his gloves to Amazon, the show is over.
EEERRRRRRRRRRKKKKKK….The Fight Guy is back baby. There is one difference between The Fight Guy’s UFC Copenhagen disaster and my friend’s basketball calamity…The People. I’ve received some activity on Twitter and a message from Domantas Gurklys. If The People want The Fight Guy back, The Fight Guy is a man of the people.
· I’m not a big gambler, gambling can be very bad like any other vice. This is why when I put $50 online to make UFC Rochester more interesting, I also created a conviction to never add more. If you learn anything from The Fight Guy let it be, “Operate off of convictions, not emotions.”
·UFC Copenhagen was a bloodbath. I spent a good amount of effort researching each fight, I recommended 20 bets for the card. The psychological toll it takes on a person to watch a 6 hour event, slowly being reinforced that you were wrong 20 times in a row was an unbelievable experience.
·I will give myself a break on the main event. I did not know Jared Cannonier was deeply into energy stones. The Fight Guy has a couple rules when it comes to recommending wagers: Don’t bet on the Polish, pretty girls can’t fight and don’t bet against crazy. Had I known Jared Cannonier was batshit crazy, I wouldn’t have bet against him.
·I thought Bruce was going to knockout Ion Cutelaba before the fight started, that’s Bruce’s time Ion, not yours.
Khalid Taha (-240) vs. Bruno Silva (+200)
Khalid Taha has a lot of power in his left and his right hands. When he knocked out Boston Salmon I said to myself, “That makes sense.” The problem is Taha hasn’t shown he can grapple, wrestle, or jiu jitsu. I also don’t like how Taha has a habit of attacking with elbows as apart of his takedown defense. You lose your balance throwing elbows which isn’t good for your takedown defense. Taha does have good cardio.
Bruno Silva does not have much available video to learn from. I have given up trying. He has fought at 125 lbs a lot, he will probably be the smaller fighter.
Prediction
I can’t predict how the fight is going to go without seeing at least one Bruno Silva fight.
Betting
·Pass
Nadia Kassem (+190) vs. Ji Yeon Kim (-210)
Nadia Kassem is a 23 year old Australian and she is undersized for the flyweight division. Her UFC debut was at 115 lbs and she missed weight (120 lbs). I am not a big believer in nerves affecting your UFC debut, I think if you can fight, you can fight. But, Kassem looked nervous in the 1st round of her UFC debut. She seems like she can’t control her emotions. She won the fight and it feels like her post fight interview with Dan Hardy began and finished in different areas of the octagon. Kassem has a decent left kick but that kick can be used to take her down because her wrestling isn’t good. She also has a hard time keeping her opponent at distance to utilize that kick because her boxing isn’t good. Kassem has decent submissions from her back but that is also a liability, she doesn’t try to get up, she tries to submit. When she can’t submit, bottom position is a losing MMA position.
Ji Yeon Kim is a good boxer, her grappling is good enough to not get taken down by a non wrestler, her chin is excellent, very good at keeping her preferred distance from her opponent, and her cardio is good.
Prediction
Kim will have a massive size and reach advantage in this fight. This fight is going to take place on the feet, Kim will find her range in the 1st round and end it in the 2nd. In this case home advantage isn’t an advantage for Kassem. Kassem can’t handle her emotions talking to Dan Hardy, how do you think she will fair in front of her home crowd in literally the biggest crowd to ever view an MMA fight? I’m guessing not so great. There is a massive difference in the boxing skill sets and size. Kassem isn’t a wrestler, even if she wanted to try to take the fight to the ground, she couldn’t. Kim has a tendency to counter strike but you will see Kim find her range and start walking Kassem down halfway through the 1st round. She probably ends the fight in the 2nd by knockout.
Betting
If Megan Anderson is a -600 favorite his Korean girl should be at least a -300 favorite in this fight. Kassem is going to freak out in front of the largest crowd ever. Bet Kim.
·Kim Wins (-210) $40 to win $20
·Kim Wins By KO (+850) $10 to win $85
·Kim Wins in Round 2 (+1100) $5 to win $55
Megan Anderson (-600) vs. Zarah Dos Santos (+450)
I saw Megan Anderson in Rochester. Her first name is pronounced “Meeeeee-Gan” not Megan. Megan is an exceptionally long Australian fighter. She resembled a praying mantis in the octagon, which is a good for striking. Megan can hit you from where you can’t hit her and she does carry power. Megan hasn’t shown the ability to grapple or any jiu jitsu skills in the octagon.
Zarah Fairn Dos Santos is a boxer that has a right hand. I watched her for about 30 seconds before I came to the conclusion she isn’t a good boxer, there isn’t fluidity of movement. She is basically Megan Anderson but not as good.
Prediction
Santos looks to be most comfortable with her hands. She has been very inactive. This is Megan Anderson’s fight to lose, I think she catches her with a head kick in the 2nd round.
Betting
Neither side is appealing to place a wager on.
· Pass
Brad Riddell (-140) vs. Jamie Mullarkey (+120)
Brad Riddell is a skilled kick boxer. He doesn’t look great on the ground. He trains with Israel Adesanya, Dan Hooker and some other top guys. That’s about all I know about him, he doesn’t have a lot of fights available to watch.
Jamie Mullarkey is also a skilled kickboxer but has more of a pedigree on the ground compared to Riddell.
Prediction
Brad Riddell will have a small size advantage in this fight. There is a high probability Riddell wins a technical kickboxing match by decision. Jamie Mullarkey may steal a round by using his wrestling and finding top position. In a close fight where there are not many fights available to watch for Brad Riddell, I am going to side with the bigger fighter that trains at the better gym.
Betting
It was hard for me to form a prediction without watching Brad Riddell’s fights, I can’t possibly recommend a wager.
· Pass
Callan Potter (+275) vs. Maki Pitolo (-335)
Callan Potter is another Australian that does not have good striking defense. He’s undersized for the 170 lbs division and he looks to have some sort of lingering knee issue, he wore a knee brace in his most recent non-UFC fight. He does look well-versed on the ground. I wouldn’t be surprised if he was a black belt in jiu jitsu. His cardio is poor, he likes to grapple to find positions he can use his jiu jitsu but he is 35 years old and fatigues as the fight wears on. I get the impression the UFC brought him back for one last fight to have one more chance against a younger up and coming fighter.
Maki Pitolo is a Hawaiian boxer with power in his hands. He has decent takedown defense and an incredible chin. Pitolo has this Nick Diaz style of boxing he switches to where he just keeps touching you. Maybe if he senses you’re tired he will keep touching you to break you. Boxing is what comes natural to Pitolo, he likes to keep the fights on the feet.
Prediction
I really don’t see how Potter wins this fight. Potter wants to take this fight to the ground to work his jiu jitsu but Pitolo’s takedown defense is good enough to keep the fight on the feet. On the feet, Pitolo has a massive advantage with footwork and boxing. Pitolo will consistently connect with his boxing all night, feel like this one could be over in the 1st round. Pitolo wins by 1st round knockout.
Betting
I do think something weird would have to happen for Potter to win this fight. Toss Pitolo in a Parlay with that Korean girl, I doubt either of those fighters loses.
· Pass
Jake Mathews (-350) vs. Rostem Akman (+300)
Jake Mathews carries a lot of power in both of his hands. He likes to time strikes, and he is very good at catching his opponents with well timed punches. Mathews has a tendency to stay around the perimeter and be a little bit of a counter puncher. If a fight goes 3 rounds Mathews will lose the “octagon control” most times. Mathews is also a skilled defensive striker, his head movement is very good. His takedown defense and grappling are very good and he is a real threat on the ground having a black belt in jiu jitsu. He does like the guillotine choke. There are a couple negatives about Jake Mathews and they are, he will fatigue if he has to work for 3 rounds. Rocco Martin pressured him for 3 rounds and he gassed out in the 3rd. He also has a tendency to get really excited in the octagon and start throwing wild punches. And he’s a little bit heavy on his lead leg.
Rostem Akman might be the hairiest person I have ever seen. He controlled the octagon and judged distance well in his UFC debut against Sergey Khandozhko. He looks like a jack of all trades, master of none fighter. He did have some impressive sweeps from bottom position, but he was fighting Sergey Khandozhko who I do not believe is UFC caliber. I do think he is a little undersized for 170 lbs and I don’t like how Sergey Khandozhko dropped him twice with a left hook in their fight. If Sergey Khandozhko puts you on your butt, Jake Mathews is ending the fight by knockout. To be fair Akman fought just 3 weeks in another promotion before accepting that short notice fight. He may have not been fully recovered from his 3rd round knockout victory. Akman also claimed he was injured for this fight on Instagram, does he look better in Melbourne? I did like his cardio and his will to win, Akman wanted that fight more than Sergey Khandozhko and his cardio held up for 3 rounds.
Prediction
Akman will control the octagon from the beginning of the fight. Akman will look to clinch and Mathews will be looking to time a punch. I don’t think Akman’s grappling is good enough to press Jake Mathews up against the fence and dictate the fight. But Akman also claimed in instagram he is going to fight hard and fight smart. To me this means he is aware of Mathews power and his gameplan is to not get in a firefight. The problem is, Akman will eventually exchange with Mathews because his wrestling isn’t good enough to dictate the fight. Mathews has too much power to not win this fight by knockout. Injured or not, Sergey Khandozhko sat Akman on his butt twice with a left hook, he can’t handle Mathews power. Mathews wins by Round 2 knockout.
Betting
Mathews wins by KO (+815) is a fantastic bet. Mathews does have a tendency to look for submissions when he finds his opponent hurt but at +815, if this fight happens 8 times, more than 1 of them are ending by knockout that is for sure. Something about Akman’s hairy chest makes me nervous, put him in the parlay with the Korean chick and the Hawaiian dude at your own risk.
· Mathews Wins by KO (+815) $10 to win $80
Justin Tafa (-125) vs. Yorgan De Castro (+105)
Yorgan De Castro has tremendous power with his leg kicks. He has a kickboxing background and has learned decent takedown defense somewhere. He also learned how to throw a well timed knee to combat wrestlers. Little chunky, not sure how his cardio holds up but very talented MMA striker, nice addition to the heavyweight division.
Justin Tafa trains with Mark Hunt’s crew. He also has a kickboxing background. I don’t have much tape to watch but I can only imagine he is like all the Mark Hunt fighters, wild swinging heavyweights and this should be a fun fight.
Prediction
I get the impression Castro will stay on the perimeter and Tafa will try and walk him down. I wouldn’t be surprised if either fighter wins, my prediction is this is going to be an entertaining fight. It wouldn’t surprise me to see this fight drag out to a decision. Sometimes when you have these big heavyweights they get tired and don’t carry knockout power throughout all the rounds. Mark me down for a Tafa decision, I like that leg kick he has.
Betting
·Pass
Luke Jumeau (+125) vs. Dhiego Lima (-145)
Luke Jumeau is a counter striker that does tend to control the center of the octagon. He has good head movement which helps to make his countering effective. He fares well defending the takedown against the fence but double legs can give him trouble in the center of the octagon. He’s accurate with his shots and he has decent cardio.
Dhiego Lima likes to move around the perimeter and be a counter striker. I like his wrestling and his grappling, I feel like he may even land a takedown in this fight. Lima looks to have a functional reach advantage in this fight that will help him land a jab from the outside.
Prediction
Jumeau will control the center of the octagon as Lima moves around the outside. I think Lima lands more strikes with the help of his reach but Jumeau will have octagon control for the entire fight and land some counter rights. This will be a close fight, feel like Lima would do himself a favor mixing in a takedown attempt in the 2nd round. Lima will have more strikes landed and Jumeau will have octagon control and certainly have his moments, this one will go to the judges and it will be one of those fights the judges could go either way. In the end Lima’s reach advantage will be the difference, Lima wins this fight by decision.
Betting
There is no value in betting this fight. It’s almost like the people in Vegas know whats going on. These odds are right, no point in betting it.
·Pass
Tai Tuivasa (-400) vs. Sergey Spivak (+325)
Tai Tuivasa is a familiar name on a two fight losing streak. His nickname is “Bam-Bam” he plays punch face. He’s another one of Mark Hunt’s guys and an entertaining fighter. His cardio isn’t great and he walks forward and tries to knock you out. He is what he is, he’s not what he’s not.
Sergey Spivak lost his UFC debut in the 1st round. He didn’t put up much of a fight against Walt Harris and didn’t look impressive in a 1st round knockout loss.
Prediction
This fight looks to be set up so the hometown boy can ignite the crowd with a 1st round knockout. Tai Tuivasa wins by 1st round KO.
Betting
You might want to consider tossing Tai Tuivasa in that parlay with the Korean chick and the Hawaiian dude.
·Pass
“Crazy” Al Iaquinta (+145) vs. Dan Hooker (-165)
“Crazy” Al is a wild card. No one in the division accepts fights with someone lower in the rankings, I don’t know how the UFC even books fights. But here’s “Crazy” Al just randomly accepting fights on twitter in Australia with his #6 ranking, that’s what “Crazy” Al does. Anyways, Al doesn’t have much nuisance to his game, he does the simple things well. He has this wrinkle to his game I like, he will reach for a single leg and come up with an elbow or a right hand. It’s something different that I feel works for him. Al is willing to take a punch to give a punch, not afraid to enter his opponents range to throw a right hand. One thing I noticed in the Kevin Lee fight is he catches a kick and counters with a right hand. That technique could be useful in this fight. Al also is very capable of wrestling. I haven’t seen Al use wrestling in his recent gameplans but if he puts Hooker on his back that would be huge for his chances of winning the fight.
Dan Hooker is really good at judging distance, moving in and out, finding his range. It looks like he will have a functional reach advantage in this fight. He’s a fantastic muay thai practitioner and this is going to be a really good fight. Hooker is buddies with Israel Adesanya so they will be preparing for their fights together.
Prediction
If I am “Crazy” Al I am trying to shoot for a takedown and try and steal a round in this fight, I do think Al is the better wrestler. But I think this fight will take place on the feet for 3 rounds and it will basically be “Crazy” Al hunting Hooker down and Hooker moving backwards connecting with more strikes. Al’s tendency of taking punches to give punches won’t help him against Hooker. This fight goes to the distance and the judges will make a decision about what they like more, octagon control or strikes landed. I feel like Hooker’s functional reach advantage will be too much of a factor in this fight to not make a difference. Dan Hooker wins a decision.
Betting
I personally put a bet in on Hooker winning when Hooker was -140, I think -165 is not giving enough respect to “Crazy” Al. I’m going to count my -140 Hooker bet to give my excel sheet a little more character. Have aspirations of making the Australian flag with this one.
·Hooker Wins (-140) $35 to win $25
Robert Whittaker (-105) vs. Israel Adesanya (-115)
Robert Whittaker has very quick hands and went 10 rounds with Yoel Romero. If you have made it this far in the blog, I don’t need to enlighten you on his skill set. He’s had abdomen injuries and hernias that have forced him from the octagon. A lot people are interested to see how he looks in his return.
Israel Adesanya is an accomplished kickboxer that is making a run in mixed martial arts. His takedown defense passed the test against David Branch who was just cut from the UFC for getting caught with steroids. David Branch has nothing to do with this weekend or the UFC anymore, but what makes the UFC the gold standard of MMA is USADA. The UFC has standards for drug testing that are very important. They don’t catch everyone, but if someone is caught it is important as fans to run their name through the mud and not give them a 2nd chance. By not giving fighters a benefit of the doubt, there is now an incentive to not do the steroids. If you can’t catch them all, burn the ones you catch. Oh wait, it wasn’t Branch it was um..Derek Brunson. Anyways, Israel passed the wrestling test against Derek Brunson and he looked really good off of his back against Kelvin Gastelum. Israel looks like a real problem for Whittaker.
Prediction
This is going to be a standup fight. Whittaker isn’t a wrestler, fighters revert to what is natural and wrestling doesn’t come natural for Whittaker. I feel like a lot of people out there are saying, “Whittaker will take him down.” It’s entirely possible Whittaker takes Israel down but I am telling you this fight will be won or lost on the feet. Israel Adesanya is the better kickboxer and he has a huge reach advantage. Every time I think about this fight I think Israel moves around the perimeter and touches Whittaker and doesn’t get hit. But then I think about the Kelvin Gastelum fight where Israel was surprised with a head kick and nearly was knocked out. You know who mixes a head kick once in awhile? Yea, “The Reaper”, Robert Whittaker. I also remember Israel fatiguing in the later rounds of that fight. You know who is capable of finishing a fatigued fighter in championship rounds? Yea, “The Reaper”, Robert Whittaker. I think we see Israel move around the perimeter for the 1st 3 rounds and win 2 of them. The 4th round will be the telling round, if the tides start to shift, Whittaker will run away with the fight and possibly finish Israel in the 4th or 5th round. But, in order for that to happen Israel will need to falter. Israel has all of the tools to win this fight, if Israel prepares for a 5 round war he wins this fight. When I think about this fight, too many times I think about Israel coming out on top. Everytime I think of Whittaker winning the fight “something happens” changing the course of the fight allowing Whitaker to win. In the law of averages, that “something happening” doesn’t happen. Israel wins this fight by 5 round decision.
Betting
I wouldn’t go crazy but Israel is still a decent bet. I made a bet on him earlier but -115 is not poor, I think the odds will be worse when the fight happens.
·Israel Wins (-115) $23 to win $20
