UFC Boston

UFC Tampa Bay Recap

• We learned that if jiu jitsu wizards can’t wrestle they can’t do the jiu jitsu. “If you can’t wrestle, you can’t fight.”-The Fight Guy.
• Niko Price made a name for himself. 2nd knockout off of his back. I wouldn’t argue a “#15" next to his name. His next fight should be a main event down in Florida. Toss him Gilbert Burnsey for that #15 spot.
• The referee should have stopped Thomas Gifford vs. Mike Davis before the round 1 bell. That referee is not a competent referee and put people’s lives at risk. He was told to leave after his meritless performance, Herb Dean picked up the rest of his assignment.
• Breast implant Joanna sure showed me. I didn’t think she had the same motivation. I thought Michelle would tire her out, take her down, and be a real threat to win in the 4th or 5th round by submission. I was wrong.
• Luis Pena: Confirmed Mental Midget
• It looks like my pick’s lost on this card so I guess this is where I tell you it’s about the long term…yada..yada..yada…try and sell you my premium picks.
• I didn’t have enough time to finish this weeks breakdowns. I will not be “advertising” this weeks breakdowns on reddit or facebook because I don’t feel like this is my best work and I weirdly have pride if I feel like I’m influencing people's opinions. Check in to my YouTube channel “Hockey, Soccer, and Fighting” if you are looking for the Chris Weidman/Reyes fight breakdown because I will research that before I post the my YouTube video. I think I am going to leave a post to UFC Tampa Bay and you can figure out how to watch the UFC Boston one.
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7RE3-VQZo8

UFC Tampa Betting Results

Tanner Boser (-130) Vs. Daniel Spitz (+120)

Tanner Boser was in the news the other day. MMA Junkie reported the strip club he worked at was burned down by an arsonist and he was out of a job. My research did not confirm if he was dancing or bouncing. Whether or not “Tanner Boser” is his dancing name or not, this is his UFC debut, and a great opportunity at employment. Boser is undersized for the heavyweight division (6'2" 75"reach) and has good striking defense. Unfortunately, his striking defense comes at a price, he’s a passive fighter and his punches don’t have much range. It seems like Boser spends the entirety of fights looking for openings and if they’re not there, he’ll collect a paycheck and go home. I don’t blame him, he hasn’t been knocked out in a long time at heavyweight, pretty smart strategy if you ask me. I work nights and I’m thinking about stopping, imagine going to work and possibly getting knocked out every day.

Daniel Spitz’s best attributes are his size (6’7” 82” reach) and his perimeter movement. I’ve watched his 3 UFC fights and I haven’t noticed a tremendous amount of output. He likes to patrol the perimeter and throw kicks. Smaller fighters have had success getting inside and landing punches, his defensive striking is not UFC level. Since his UFC debut it looks like he’s revamped his game and added more movement. With his new style I don’t think cardio is an issue because he takes less body shots. His lead leg is there to be hit and he is capable of knocking his opponent out because he’s a heavyweight. Spitz is a converted college football player, his wrestling and ground game are not remarkable.

Prediction

I haven’t seen Boser “fight long” against guys his own size, I’m not sure how he’s going to close the distance against Spitz. Spitz is not good and Boser isn’t impressive. When push comes to shove, I’m an attribute guy. Boser will have to close the distance against a massive size and reach disadvantage. I have to believe Spitz has prepared a jab for this fight, and dances around the octagon for 3 rounds and wins a close decision. Unless I’m missing something, Spitz wins a decision here.

Betting

I think Spitz is a decent bet, but he’s terrible. I feel dirty but I’m betting Spitz.

• Spitz Wins (+120) $10 to win $12

Brendan Allen (+150) vs. Kevin Holland (-160)

Brendan Allen is making his UFC debut. His record is 8–3. I don’t care about MMA records, I bring it up because his 3 loses came against Anthony Hernandez, Trevin Giles, and Eryk Anders. Allen has a really good chin, his knees from the clinch are very effective, his boxing is very good, he is a good mma wrestler and his top game threatens to finish every fight he’s in, but he does look weak off of his back. He’s really good at being the hammer but not great at being the nail when the fight goes to the ground. He’s been training at Roufusport for a significant amount of time and I am expecting Brendan Allen to have made a lot of improvements, I’m really excited to see this kid fight.

Kevin Holland has an 81 inch reach, he likes the clinch position, his striking is crisp and complements his reach advantage, his takedown defense isn’t great and he’s really good on the ground. In his last fight against Di Chirico, Holland said his step dad just had a baby with his Mom’s friend, while his Mom was in prison. His Mom just got out of prison and found out about it 2 weeks before the fight. Imagine someone found out all of that information moments before stepping into the octagon, that’s the “Fight IQ” Kevin Holland has. The guy is a silly goose inside of the octagon, you never know what to expect. In his most recent fight it looks like he had shoulder problems in the 3rd round, don’t be surprised if that happens again.

Prediction

Holland will have a functional reach advantage in this fight. I think Brendan Allen can get inside to land his 1–2 combination but you can’t ignore Holland’s reach advantage. Holland tends to clinch against the fence and I think Allen wins those clinches and takes the fight to the ground. Allen also has good wrestling so there will be a high probability Holland sees bottom position. Allen has shown to be heavy in top position but has looked vulnerable when he is in bottom position. I’d be naive to think Kevin Holland doesn’t find top position and that weakness is tested in this fight. Either Allen is better off of his back having trained at Roufusport or Holland will find back mount or full mount and end this fight. From what I have seen on tape Holland is better on the ground and ends this fight in mount or back mount, but I certainly can imagine Brendan Allen taking Holland down and grinding out a decision. Fight camps matter in MMA, but I still have to see it first, Holland wins this fight by stoppage from mount or back mount in, let's say the 3rd round.

Betting

There is 0% chance I am betting on Kevin Holland. I wouldn’t argue with you if you thought Allen was a good bet at +150. Holland is a very skilled mma fighter with a ton of experience, +150 isn’t enough. I just want to enjoy this fight. I am really interested to see how this one plays out.

• Pass

Sean Brady (-210) vs. Court McGee (+190)

Sean Brady is 5'9" and a has a 72" reach. He’s a training partner of Paul Felder, I love Paul Felder. I could only find his most recent fight against Taj Abdul-Hakim but I saw a compact 170 lbs fighter with powerful hands that’s good at finding double underhooks in the clinch against the fence. Brady used the double underhooks to trip Hakim and demonstrate that his top game is very heavy and effective, he will take what you give him. If you give him unprotected elbows to the body, Brady will spend 25 minutes smashing your psoas muscle. Also took advantage of a kimura. I didn’t see a fighter that shoots double legs, and I didn’t see Brady off of his back or defend a takedown so it’s hard to assess Brady as a fighter without seeing the Gilbert Urbina and Colton Smith fights.

Court McGee is a recovering heroin addict. The first thing that stood out to me about Court McGee is his dedication to MMA. His Instagram is only MMA related posts, he trusts his corner and follows their advice, the guy is focus on MMA. McGee is 5'11" with a 75" reach. He likes to have clinchy, grindy fights against the fence, or time a double leg to take the fight to the ground. McGee is more of a counter puncher, but he can be hit. He has good cardio.

Prediction

The big question I have for this fight is, “How can Sean Brady handle the clinching and takedowns?” Unfortunately, I can’t really answer that because I haven’t watched the Gilbert Urbina and Colton Smith fights. I’m going to plead ignorance on this one, I don’t know. I could fake it and say things like, “Sean Brady will walk McGee down and knock him out because his power will be too much for Court McGee.” Push comes to shove, I think Brady wins a decision in Boston.

Betting

I am really interested in betting Court McGee, specifically because I think the hype on this Sean Brady kid, in Boston, is going to cause people to bet him, making McGee’s odds better. But, I don’t know how Sean Brady handles takedown defense. So, nothing I can do about that unless I figure out how to watch those Gilbert Urbina and Colton Smith fights.

• Pass

Randy Costa (+130) vs. Boston Salmon (-140)

Randy Costa is 5'11" with a 73" reach. The TD Garden is close to home for Costa fighting out of Joe Lauzon camp, Lauzon Mixed Martial Arts. Costa has knocked 4 people out in minor promotions all less than a minute or shortly after. He had a come to Jesus moment fighting Brandon Davis, probably the 1st competitive fight he has had. I really like his high kicks, they seem to launch with no windup, very fluid. He’s a very aggressive puncher and kicker and he caught Brandon Davis a couple of times in the head with his hands and his feet. In that Davis fight it looked like he had a weird hip issue, he was moving as if one leg was 3 inches shorter than the other. So Costa can’t wrestle, he isn’t good in the clinch, his striking defense is poor and he doesn’t have skills on the ground. Any type of decent wrestler shouldn’t have trouble winning against Randy Costa.

Boston Salmon is 5'9" with a 72" reach. He had major knee surgery about 2 years ago. His UFC debut last about 10 seconds losing by flash knockout. Contrary to his UFC debut, Boston Salmon is a fantastic boxer. He has very nice counter strikes. Maybe that’s why they put this fight together, neither guy wants to take the fight to the ground.

Prediction

Boston Salmon’s counter punching and boxing is the difference in this fight. Salmon didn’t have trouble with Ricky Turcios kicks, I think he will be okay with Randy Costa’s kicks. Salmon’s boxing ends this fight by knockout in the 2nd round.

Betting

As much as I think Randy Costa isn’t a good fighter, this is a kickboxing match and kickboxing is what Costa is best at. I’m going to wait until fight time to make a wager on Salmon winning. The hometown Costa is making shirts for the fight, people will bet on him. With the torn ACL knee injury and the flash knockout it’s hard to rationalize betting on Salmon at -160. -130 is where I am looking to bet this fight, and I think it will get there. Something about Randy Costa rubs me the wrong way and I think I’m blinded by that, I’m going to sit this one out, feel like I would make a dumb decision if I recommended a wager.

• Pass

Sean Woodson vs. Kyle Bochniak

I really just don’t have time to research this fight right now.

Diana Belbita vs. Molly McCann

Diana Belbita looks to be a pretty low level fighter. She likes the thai clinch.

Molly McCann is a boxer from Liverpool.

Prediction

Molly McCann is the better mma fighter than Belbita. Molly McCann is a boxer so she will win this fight with her boxing.

Betting

Sometimes I fall asleep listening to MMA podcasts. Before I fell asleep a guy I respect said, I think Molly McCann is going to win this fight in the 1st round by submission. I’m aware this fight is one of those -500 women’s fights and I figured, “If my man thought it’s ending in submission, “I’m betting submission at +600.” I watched one fight and realized Molly is a Boxer and don’t know what my man is thinking but hopefully it works out.

• McCann Wins by Submission (+620) $5 to win $30

Charles Rosa (-140) vs. Manny Bermudez (-150)

Charles Rosa is buddies with “The Rat” Brad Marchand, I’m a hockey guy so I have to mention it. He is also the biggest “home” fighter on the card, repping Boston, fighting out of ATT. Rosa swings a big, looping, left hand. He’s been out of action due to a serious neck injury.

Manny Bermudez missed weight today (148 lbs). He’s a jiu jitsu guy who can’t wrestle. “If you can’t wrestle, you can’t fight.”-The Fight Guy. Do not bet on him.

Prediction

Manny Bermudez is a jiu jitsu guy who can’t wrestle and Charles Rosa is coming off of a serious neck injury. Push comes to shove I am taking Rosa as the hometown boy. “If you can’t wrestle, you can’t fight.”-The Fight Guy

Betting

This fight doesn’t sound like anything I would want to touch. We’ll see what happens. Rooting for Rosa, as a Rangers fan, I don’t really hate Marchand. He’s a rat, heis what it is, he’s not what it’s not. It’s up to the refs to officiate the game.

• Pass

Maycee Barber (-135) vs. Gillian Robertson(+125)

Maycee Barber is a striker with definitive ground and pound.

Gillian Robertson is a wrestler that looks for submissions on the ground. She can be, “Submission over position.”

Prediction

This is a stupid fight. I’m running behind schedule this week and I’m finishing up these fights for my readers, specifically you Domantas Gurklys. The Fight Guy is a man of the people. I’ve heard a lot of noise about how this is the best fight to bet, bet Gillian Robertson, she’s a wrestler and she will take Barber down and submit her. Yea, well Robertson is submission over position and Barber has tremendous ground and pound. Push comes to shove, I’m taking Barber by decision.

Betting

• Pass

Deron Winn (-120) vs. Darren Stewart (+100)

Deron Winn is 5'6" and has a 70" reach at 185 lbs. He’s an Olympic wrestler fighting out of AKA, he’s DC’s boy, a glorified wrestler boxer. He mixed weight today (188 lbs). Dana White Telling Deron Winn he needs to fight at 205 lbs would be comical. He fought Eric Spicely in his UFC debut who’s a BJJ guy so there was no incentive for Winn to take the fight to the ground. Winn can handle himself on the feet with boxing. Olympic level wrestling doesn’t mean you don’t get tired, Winn was fatigued in the 3rd round of his UFC debut.

Darren Stewart

I watched the Steward Byrd fight and I’m ready for the prediction section.

Prediction

The first thing I want to say about this fight is DC was the commentator of Byrd Stewart and he said, “You need to take Stewart to the ground early because Stewart has power in his hands.” Stewart has the power in the hands DC was talking about. Steward wins in the 2nd round by knockout.

Betting

I’ve heard a lot of talk about how Deron Winn is going to take Stewart down and he is a good bet. We’ll he just might win a decision, sure. But at any point in the fight Steward could end it, Winn is tiny and missed weight. Nothing I am interested in.

• Pass

Joe Lauzon (+145) vs. Jonathan Pearce (-165)

I’m going to pass on this fight. I don’t have time to research it.

Greg Hardy (-300) Ben Sosoli (+270)

Sorry guys this one won’t be in standard format, I’m going to spitball it. Sosoli is a boxer, he won’t try and take Hardy down. Hardy is a freak athlete and is a serious threat to finish the fight in the 1st round. The problem with Hardy is he’s never been out of the 1st round. Or if he has, whatever, he’s def not been into the 3rd round. He claimed he had an asthma attack against Chowder in their fight which tells me his cardio sucks. We all watched Tai Tuivasa gas out in 1 round in Australia. I think there is a serious gas tank problem for Greg Hardy, if this fight enters the 2nd or 3rd round, Hardy might be in trouble. Still I’m not a fool. Hardy wins this fight in the 1st round by KO. Hardy Wins by Submission interests me at +1700 but I would have to research Sosoli and I don’t have time for that.

Jeremy Stephens (-105) vs. Yair Rodriguez (-105)

I am going to paste my breakdown from the previous card.

Oct 3, 2015 Yair Rodriguez vs Dan Hooker
I knew this coming in but Rodriguez is a flashy kicker having a taekwondo background. Joe Rogan has a taekwondo background himself and boy is he excited. Hooker started the fight by circling away from Rodriguez’s power and made sure to stay out of kicking distance. This was probably be design to see what Rodriguez would do with his striking. Hooker caught an inside leg kick and looked to test Rodriguez’s grappling against the fence. Rodriguez’s grappling was of interest to me as well. Rodriguez used a guillotine hold to trip and judo throw Hooker to the ground quickly scrambling to full mount. I like that Rodriguez used the guillotine as a grappling tool instead of trying to choke Hooker. Hooker quickly escaped full mount and nearly took Rodriguez’s back. Losing full mount so quickly, even so close to the fence, is making me question Joe Rogan’s commentary of Rodriguez being a high level, dynamic, jiu jitsu player. Hooker looks to have an advantage with the grappling against the fence, although Rodriguez’s knees from the clinch are a good tool. Yair ended the round with a somersault wizard kick. Rodriguez is making a mistake engaging in these grappling clinches against the fence with Hooker. Rodriguez is truly a gifted kicker that has a passion for the flashing striking. Hooker can’t stand in front of him, if I was in Hooker’s corner I would tell him to engage the clinch and use elbows. It looks like there is a translator in Rodriguez’s corner translating his coach’s advice, I have never seen that before. Hooker pressured Rodriguez and Rodriguez was running away or fighting backwards and was not nearly as effective. Hooker did take the fight to the ground but Rodriguez’s guard game was very good, cutting Hooker with elbows. Rodriguez did not fight well when he was moving backwards to Hookers pressure but I did not see a significant cardio problem for the 22 year old Rodriguez. He kind of reminds me of Edson Barboza, you will need to force Rodriguez to move backwards to have success, those kicks are a problem if he’s standing in front of you.

Apr 23, 2016 Yair Rodriguez vs Andre Fili
Fili is trying to fight in boxing range, Rodriguez wants to fight in kicking range and is using a side kick to the knee for distance management. Rodriguez caught Fili’s kick and took the fight to the ground. He looks to be comfortable landing strikes from top position. Rodriguez’s jiu jitsu does look to be proficient as he turned top position into side control. A well timed takedown from Rodriguez in the 2nd round showed he is not truly comfortable striking in top position, he’d rather be standing. The flying knee knocked out Fili. Rodriguez’s taekwondo background shows that kicking is where he is most comfortable. On the other end of the spectrum, he hasn’t showed high level boxing. He will need to develop better boxing, he can’t rely on sweet wizard kickery to win as he climbs the ranks. Pettis vs. Diaz showed pressure and boxing beats a kicker, I would like to Rodriguez work his boxing against B.J. Penn.

Jan 15, 2017 Yair Rodriguez vs B.J. Penn
B.J came out with the gameplan of trying to grapple with Rodriguez. I’m not sure there is much to learn from this fight that we didn’t already know. Rodriguez did throw a looping power right hand in a 1–2 combination a couple of times. I wanted to see improved boxing against B.J. Rodriguez continued with his kick heavy attack and really hurt B.J. I guess he did catch B.J. with a right hook following a right kick to the body to start the 2nd round with a KO punch. B.J. took a lot of damage in this fight and I’m ready to see Rodriguez vs. Frankie.

May 13, 2017 Frankie Edgar vs Yair Rodriguez
Frankie is a wrestler and one of the best there is at 145 lbs. If you are reading this you probably know how this fight goes, but I am going to try and see how Rodriguez has evolved as a fighter anyways. The first thing I noticed is Frankie is pressuring Rodriguez and he doesn’t like it. When Hooker pressured Rodriguez he was winning the fight, pressure is not the friend of a kick first fighter. It doesn’t look like Rodriguez’s boxing is good enough to get respect from Frankie. I’m not sure I know enough about mma jiu jitsu to break down what happened in this 1st round but I’m going to give it a go. Frankie pressured Rodriguez with his boxing until he clinched. From the clinch Frankie worked to find a high crotch and Rodriguez went for a guillotine, losing his balance and was taken down. Frankie’s top pressure overwhelmed Rodriguez on the ground with strikes. Rodriguez did a good job of threatening triangles and arm bars from the bottom but Frankie has elite top pressure and landed a lot of punches to the face. I do want to make the point, I credit this demonstration more to Frankie’s top pressure rather than blaming Rodriguez’s jiu jitsu. It looks like Frankie is waiting for one of Rodriguez’s kicks to finish to throw a left hand and gain boxing distance. Even compromised, Rodriguez is still dangerous with his kicks. He connected with a wheel kick, but Frankie was okay and immediate shot for a successful double. Rodriguez looks to be good at tying up legs and working submissions from the bottom. He tied up Frankie’s legs and looked for a heel hook before Frankie worked to find a position where he could hit Rodriguez in the face. Once you get punched in the face you usually let go of the submission you’re working on. The fight was stopped due to the damage to Rodriguez’s eye. I’m not sure I take a lot away from this fight, Rodriguez’s guard wasn’t bad, he attacked submissions, he was active, Frankie is just better at the top position.

Nov 10, 2018 Yair Rodriguez vs Chan Sung Jung
I have seen this fight before, one thing that I am looking for in this fight is how Rodriguez boxes and and how he handles a heavy boxing attack. Frankie beat Rodriguez with pressure, it will be interesting to see how the Korean Zombie can pressure Rodriguez with his boxing. This is one of the all time fights in the UFC. I had this theory that Rodriguez strategically took fights in high elevation cities like Denver because he is from Mexico and Mexico City has a high elevation. I looked into it and that theory is wildly unfounded. I do not think Rodriguez will ever have high level boxing, but I did see Rodriguez have an effective jab. I also thought Rodriguez did a good job of staying out of boxing range while staying in kicking range. Rodriguez has very effective leg kicks, his spinning elbows caught the Korean Zombie on multiple occasions, and obviously the inverted elbow ended the fight in dramatic fashion. I was impressed with Rodriguez’s cardio, that was a physically taxing fight in a high elevation city and Rodriguez was firing on all cylinders until the very end. Rodriguez has a gift and a passion for fancy striking techniques, I do think the spinning elbow is the most effective of them all. Rodriguez landed that spinning elbow on multiple occasions with fluidity. There was no setting it up just to throw a fancy kick, it worked within the constraints of a fight. I do think it’s important to point out the difference between this unique strike and Rodriguez’s other elaborate striking. How many times have we seen guys in the UFC hit a “Rolling Thunder” and other elaborate kicking techniques? Not often, we all saw Michel Pereira make a fool of himself on Saturday and he threw all the fancy stuff in the book. But when you have a gift and a passion for these elaborate striking techniques, like Rodriguez does, you train with them and you have an ability to mix them fluidly into your fighting style as a natural reaction. That’s what makes Rodriguez such a dangerous striker, anyone can throw a “Rolling Thunder” with 5 seconds left on the 1st round clock to end a round. Rodriguez throws these strikes you really can’t prepare in situations they can be effective because he trains them so they are natural reactions. “The punches you can’t see are the ones that knock you out.” You can’t prepare for the spinning elbow that bloodied the Korean Zombie’s lip in the 1st round. This is what makes Rodriguez a knockout threat, the unexpected striking. But, it doesn’t matter how good you are at inverted elbows, these strikes need to be supplementary and not fundamental. I would like to see Rodriguez focus on his fundamentals in this fight with Jeremy Stephens.

Apr 15, 2017 Renato Moicano vs Jeremy Stephens
Jeremy Stephen has a ton of fights in the UFC. I don’t think there is much of a point of traveling back 7 years to see him fight Cowboy because fighters evolve so much, that isn’t the same guy that is going to Mexico City. The first fight I want to look at is Renato Moicano. Moicano won the 1st round with leg kicks to Stephens lead leg. Moicano’s movement kept the fight on the outside in kicking range as Stephens unsuccessfully looked to find a home for his powerful right hand. I loved that Stephens started the 2nd round with a well timed change of levels. Even though it was unsuccessful, it gives Moicano something else to think about, could provide an opening for his right hand. Stephens did a good job of listening to his corner, he attacked Moicano’s legs and had more success with his striking. 1–1 heading into the 3rd. Moicano is slowing down and I do think Stephens is feeling tired heading into this deciding 3rd round. Didn’t see anything to question Stephens’ cardio. Close fight, I thought Stephens won, it’s probably going to be one of those fights where Moicano’s benign takedown early in the 3rd is a difference maker on the scorecards. But I think the main takeaway from this fight is Stephens had trouble closing the distance against a fighter that fights long and had a reach advantage. I did think there were a couple of opportunities where Stephens could have unloaded some right hands in the fight against the fence, but Moicano presented a distance problem and Stephens couldn’t get it done.

Jan 14, 2018 Jeremy Stephens vs Dooho Choi
Stephens used his leg kicks to attack Choi’s lead leg. Stephens is at his best when he closes the distance. He threw a violent elbow from the clinch and needs to get inside to utilize the power he has in his right hand. After studying two of his fights, it does look to be a theme of closing distance is the key to the fight. The turning point of this fight is when Choi front kicked Stephens in the face. Choi became aggressive because Stephens was hurt and Stephens reacted to Choi’s aggression with aggression. He literally threw a left kick that knocked himself off of his feet. In that sequence, Stephens caught Choi with a right hand. Stephens became more confident and comfortable getting into the space where he was comfortable throwing his right hand. Stephens hit Choi with a right hand and the fight was over. For me, the take away from this fight is Stephens needs to consistently get into the space where he can throw his right hand or he won’t be successful. The wonderful Mike Perry interview where he talks about his coaches is applicable here. It is dangerous to close the distance and get into the space where Stephens can utilize his right hand, but that is the battle Stephens will have with Rodriguez.

Feb 24, 2018 Jeremy Stephens vs Josh Emmett
Stephens can be hit, especially with counter right hands. In the 1st round of the Emmett fight he was caught with a counter right hand. Stephens was was winning the round and dictating the fight. Stephens wants to finish fights, it’s is what comes natural to him, power punching. I’m honestly a little surprised I haven’t run across a cardio issue with the energy output he uses for each punch. When you are a power puncher, you can be countered, and he was. In the Choi fight he was caught a couple times, but Choi doesn’t carry the same power as Emmett. Stephens looks to have recovered and I would anticipate him winning this fight if he is, in fact, recovered. I didn’t anticipate Stephens illegally kneeing Emmett in the head, but Stephens carries power in both hands and can counter punch himself.

Jul 28, 2018 Jose Aldo vs Jeremy Stephens
I could be wrong but Stephens body doesn’t look as good in this fight compared to the Emmett fight. This was basically a boxing match with a couple kicks mixed in that turned into a brawl. I thought Aldo was more skilled in the boxing category but Stephens carried more power in his hands. Stephens loads his punches up so a skilled fighter can anticipate when that right hand is coming. More faints would do Stephens well so his opponent couldn’t time his right hand. Stephens tripped early in the fight and fell into an Aldo right hand, I thought the fight was going to be over right there. Stephens clipped Aldo but couldn’t finish. In the midst of a brawl, Aldo hit Stephens with a left hook liver shot that ended the fight. I don’t think there is too much to take away from this fight.

Mar 2, 2019 Zabit Magomedsharipov vs Jeremy Stephens
This was a horrible match up for Stephens, Zabit fights long and is a legit title contender at 145 lbs. Stephens couldn’t close the distance enough to connect with his right hand. Another theme I have noticed is Stephens’ corner is always telling him to pressure and throw 4 or 5 punches in a row. Again, cue the Mike Perry interview. I will say Stephens’ body looked better in this fight but the fight went about how everyone expected it to.

Prediction

Neither fighter has a cardio issue that Mexico City’s elevation enhance’s. Both fighters have been training in Mexico City at elevation to acclimatize. At any time in this fight Stephens can end the fight with a right hand. But, Rodriguez fights at kicking distance so it will be a challenge to close the distance. Stephens’ corner is always telling him he needs to pressure with 4 or 5 punches to close the distance. This tells me Stephens has trouble pressuring opponents using his boxing. A fair counter point could be he’s spent time training with Tony Ferguson to work on his footwork. Stephens does telegraph his right hand, can Rodriguez tell when the right is coming? The path to victory for Stephens is to pressure Rodriguez with his boxing, especially because Rodriguez doesn’t have the boxing to counter. There is a reasonable argument kickers need space and can’t fight going backwards. I haven’t seen overwhelming pressure from Stephens on tape so I can’t really rely on it. Will his training with Tony Ferguson help his footwork? If you can answer that question you have found a good bet for this fight. The key to this fight is Yair Rodriguez likes to fight at kicking distance and Jeremy Stephens will have a hard time closing the distance to land his right hand. I like Stephens to catch Rodriguez and end the fight with a right hand in the 2nd round.

Betting

There’s too many questions, if Stephens shows up the same fighter, I think he loses. If Stephens’ training with Tony Ferguson helps him pressure Rodriguez I think he wins. It’s not worth it to me, I’ll pass on this fight.

• Pass