UFC Brasília

17 min readMar 13, 2020

Brasília, Brazil was founded in 1960 in an effort to move the capital from Rio de Janeiro to a more centralized location. Brasília is known for its modernist architecture, the federal district, and its utopian design. Post World War 2 to about 1970, the modernization of cities was a thing. On Saturday, Brasília will be the home for some crowless violence due to coronavirus concerns.

Juscelino Kubitschek Bridge, Brasília, Bazil

UFC 248 Recap

I hope everyone can appreciate the genius of Dana White. While the coronavirus has eliminated all sporting events and entertainment, Dana White will continue to have UFC fights on Saturdays. UFC Brasília will take place without fans, and the rest of the shows will be moved to the UFC’s private gym, “The Apex”. Not only will there be UFC entertainment on Saturdays, but, while literally nothing is going on in America, the biggest fight in the UFC’s history, Tony Ferguson vs. Khabib, will happen on Pay Per View. This is a far cry from Dana White’s original position on the coronavirus, “I don’t give a **** about the coronavirus.”-Dana White. But you have to appreciate Dana White here. I was very much looking forward to attending UFC Columbus with an N95 respirator, UFC fight gloves, and double fisting bud lights through a straw apparatus, but I will have to settle for a refund.

Tony Ferguson vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov. The fight that everyone needs to see. Tony Ferguson vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov being threatened for a 5th time by a worldwide pandemic is sooooo Tony Ferguson Khabib Nurmagomedov. This fight will be held with no fans at the UFC’s gym, “The Apex” on Pay Per View. Tony Ferguson vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov finally happening in a glorified warehouse in the intimacy of silence on Pay Per View just seems right. There is a massive appeal about this for me, it’s going to be different, it’s Tony Ferguson vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov.

“I’m Sorry Adam”-Uriah Hall

The coronavirus is a problem, I hope you all stay safe. To help understand the situation I have, again, seeked a consultation with Dr. Matt. Dr. Matt has informed me that the reason why these “mass gatherings” are being canceled is to limit the rate at which people become sick. These cancellations will not limit the amount of people who get sick from the coronavirus. The purpose of limiting the rate at which people get sick is to afford hospitals the ability to take care of the sick patients. If too many people are sick at once, the hospital will have to chose who to care for and who to not care for due to lack of equipment. I believe this is happening in Italy right now, Italy has to choose who to care for and who to let die. The idea that cancelling these large events is going to limit your risk of getting infected with the coronavirus is not correct. The same number of people are expected to get infected, just at a slower rate of infection. The coronavirus is still coming for you, it’s just traveling at slow march.

Medical professionals are annoying, specifically nurses. I’m aware nurses are valuable, specifically at a time like this. I’m aware what I just said is incredibly obnoxious, but I was sitting in the sauna earlier today discussing the coronavirus and the prospects of me attending UFC Columbus with this ICU nurse. She tells me, “Oh don’t worry, it’s a big fuss over nothing, just wash your hands. The Flu is more dangerous for people.” Ummm lady, has the flu ever canceled the NHL season? No, the flu is listed as an “upper body injury” and we move on. The flu goes away when it gets hot, nobody knows what’s going to happen with the coronavirus. She responds, “Well, the flu season doesn’t officially end until the summer. Just wash your hands and have good time at the fight.” Nobody cares about the flu, the fights canceled, the flu isn’t a worldwide pandemic bred from giant bats in some Wuhan overcrowded meat market.
As I sit here at my Olive Garden never ending stuffed pasta table for 1, I’m wondering how to move on. I’m going to move on to Max Griffin. A couple months ago Max posted on facebook, “My son is looking for a Messi jersey.” I sent him a message saying, “Hey bud, I have a Messi jersey. I’m a fan of yours. If you send me your address I’ll ship it to you.” So, I shipped him my Messi jersey and a brazilian Ronaldo jersey I had (his kid seems to like soccer). He sent me a video of him giving the jerseys to his kid and he shipped me one of his Max Pain shirts. I’m not in the business of posting a picture of someone’s kid to my, albeit small, but public audience, but below is a screenshot of Max holding the Messi jersey. I was rooting for him to win and was gutted at that split decision. Hopefully Max doesn’t get cut and I’ll have another chance to rock my Max Pain shirt.

Yoel Romero vs. Israel Adesanya. Well, last week we talked about how Yoel Romero’s primary goal in a fight was to not get tired. He has tailored his fighting style to achieve this goal. Yoel has evolved a stagnant, defensive fighting stance that conserves energy. This is effective because Yoel Romero’s reflexes are insane and if you get too close to him, he will hit you. Inversely, Israel Adesanya is a counter striker, he wants his opponent to move at him so he can work angles and use his opponents movement against him. Izzy is a hit and don’t be hit guy. So, we have a stylistic problem. People were literally leaving during the main event because it was so boring. So who’s at fault? Yoel Romero is 43 years old and has a fused neck from a massive neck injury. It’s hard for me to put too much blame on Yoel considering this is how he fights, but I was still surprised Yoel Romero didn’t capitalize when he had Adesanya in some compromising positions. I really liked Yoel Romero’s speech at the end. He talked about how the people work hard and when they pay for Pay Per View they should get a fight. Had a nice reference to the Romans and the violence of the Colosseum, boom, nailed it. Israel Adesanya claims, “He didn’t come to fight, I need someone who moves forward to have a good fight.” Well, to be fair, it’s not your opponent’s responsibility to do exactly what you want them to do. Floyd Mayweather was a counter puncher and probably the best and most boring fighter at the same time. Every Floyd Mayweather fight people felt like they didn’t get their money’s worth. Larry Merchant used to rate boxers on the, “Arturo Gatti Scale”. This ranked boxers on how entertaining their fights were. Maybe The Fight Guy will create a similar scale. So, anyways, who’s at fault? They both are. It’s basically that spiderman meme where the 2 spidermen are pointing at each other.

Tyron Woodley has done some whining in the past, but I think Woodley has a point. I remember watching the Tyron Woodley vs. Demian Maia title fight and Dana White was all over Woodley in the post fight presser about no aggressiveness. Rogan was mentioning things like all time lowest strikes in a title fight etc. Where was Rogan, DC, and Anik to let us know the record has been broke?

Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Weili Zhang was one of the greatest fights of all time. This tweet from Islam Makhachev aged like milk. I don’t agree with Mr. Islam Makhachev, but I understand where he’s coming from. It was very hard to watch Karolina Kowalkiewicz lose on multiple occasions. But, this is America, women are more free and have more rights than any other place on earth. If they want to fight to a hypothetical life or death in an 8-sided shape, that is their choice. Furthermore, women’s sports don’t garner attention. This is why the WNBA is having trouble staying afloat, women are trying to form a professional hockey league but are having trouble, women’s soccer is having trouble making money etc. The only women’s sport that garners the general public’s attention is Mixed Martial Arts. If I’m not mistaken a women’s fight headlined UFC 200. I think Ronda Rousey made more money than any man in her time. A lot of people were excited to see Weili Zhang vs. Joanna Jedrzejczyk and it had nothing to do with them being women. No women’s sport garners mainstream attention like women’s MMA. Tell that to your girlfriend’s feminist friend next time she’s bashing the violence of the octagon.
Apparently, Brian Ortega had one too many Modelos, was given a choice, and chose to go slap happy in the fighter’s section of T-Mobile Arena. The Korean Zombie’s translator was on the receiving end of an open palmed slap. To make this even more glorious, Ortega was heard blowing his trumpet, “I told you I would slap the **** out of you when I saw you” as he was dragged away by security. I’m sure The Korean Zombie was very confused when he returned from the bathroom and found out his translator was on the receiving end of a pimp slap. The aftermath has been Brian Ortega saying how the translator deserved to be slapped, then the Korean Zombie clarified the situation, then Ortega apologizes, then the translator accepts the apology, and then Ortega’s jiu jitsu coach apologizes, and The Korean Zombie accepts his apology, there was a whole monotony of pleasantries…Let me know when Brian Ortega and The Korean Zombie fight.

Beneil Dariush showed that he’s not just a jiu jitsu wizard, he trains with Rafael Cordeiro over at Kings MMA and those boys know how to fight. Kings MMA is known for hard sparing and Dariush showed he can still throw hands.

Nice showing for Sugar Sean O’Malley, I would expect to see him back in the octagon very soon. I don’t know what was going on with him and USADA, but it looks like he figured it out and is ready to fight. Maybe a guy like John Dodson or even take Cody Garbrandt’s spot on what used to be UFC Columbus against Raphael Assuncao. Expect O’Malley back in there soon, he has some time to make up for.

The Fight Guy’s Scorecard

I’m going to bring something new to the blog. When I watch the fights I will score them. I don’t claim to be well read on the scoring rules in each athletic commision, but I basically score the round on which fighter did more damage.

Kevin Lee (-140) Charles Oliveira (+120)

**Kevin Lee** (5'9", 76", 27 years old, Tristar)

I really want to like Kevin Lee. He hit a rough patch in his career losing 3 of 4. He went to Tristar to work with Firas Zahabi, took a fight with a guy nobody wanted to fight in Gregor Gillespie, a matchup everyone said was terrible for him, and KO’d him in Round 1. Charles Oliveira is another guy nobody wants to fight and he seems to want to fight Islam Makhachev. That’s a trifecta of terrible matchups. That’s everything The Fight Guy respects in a fighter. I just can’t get over his haircut. Here’s my betting advice for the Kevin Lee-Gillespie fight,

“I think he poses a lot of problems that Gillespie hasn’t seen before, but I just checked Lee’s Instagram and I hate his haircut. Doesn’t he have friends that tell him, “That haircut makes you look bad.”? Kevin Lee is a subjectively good looking guy, just get a high fade.”

A wise man once said, “Never make fun of someone for something god gave them, but if it’s their choice, it’s fair game.” Maybe it’s because I’m white and “I don’t get it.” But, I’m pretty sure that cut transcends race.

Things I like:

Kevin Lee is a very good MMA wrestler. American College wrestling is not MMA wrestling. Kevin Lee was highly recruited out of high school as a wrestler but chose to get into MMA to support his brothers and sisters. He won scrambles with Tony Ferguson, He nearly choked out Michael Chiesa, he dominated Edson Barboza on the ground, and at times he won grappling exchanges with “crazy” Al Iaquinta which no easy feat, Al’s good on the ground. Kevin Lee not only will take his opponents back and find full mount, but he will capitalize from these dominant grappling positions. He’s a threat to choke you from your back and he delivers devastating ground and pound from full mount.
Kevin Lee has a very nice left high kick and left body kick from the southpaw and orthodox stances. He KO’d Gregor Gillespie with that high kick, that wasn’t an accident, he caught Tony Ferguson with it too. That’s his best strike. He also has a strong, crisp left jab.
Kevin Lee kind of reached a tough spot in his career and turned to Tristar. Fight camps matter and that seems like a good fit for him.

Things I don’t like:

There seems to be a very real problem with Kevin Lee fading in fights. As the Al Iaquinta fight lingered on he looked tired, he gassed in the Tony Ferguson fight, and RDA seemed to break him in Rochester at 170 lbs.
Kevin Lee also has a history of Staph infection, I’ll have to talk to Dr. Matt about whether or not people are genetically more susceptible to Staph Infection or if Kevin Lee has been a victim of unfortunate circumstance. Has Staph Infection dramatically impacted Kevin Lee’s ability to perform?
In Kevin Lee’s loses to Tony Ferguson, “Crazy” Al, and RDA Kevin Lee had to play defense. Kevin Lee mounted Tony, Kevin Lee took “Crazy” Al’s back, and Kevin Lee could not dictate the RDA fight with his wrestling. I’m wondering if there is a theme here with Kevin Lee being really good at being the hammer, like the Edson Barboza fight, but really struggling when he gets legitimate pushback from his opponent.
I know Kevin Lee KO’d Gillespie, but I don’t see KO power from Kevin Lee’s striking. I also don’t believe Kevin Lee fully utilizes his reach with his standup. His left jab is solid, but he doesn’t seem to fight long. His striking seems like the striking of an overly muscled fighter, no fluidity, forced.

**Charles Oliveira** (5'10", 74" reach, 30 years old, Brazil)

Charles Oliveira has been clamoring for a top 10 opponent. He’s been on a 6 fight winning streak and a win over Kevin Lee would catapult him up the rankings. He’s in his home country with a top ten opponent, he has gotten exactly what he’s asked for. “Do Bronx” is also on a 13 UFC fight streak without a fight going to decision…I’m looking at 25 UFC fights, only 2 have gone to a decision, that’s an unbelievable statistic.

Things I like:

Charles Oliveira is a Jut Jitsu Wizard. In any grappling situation, he’s always attacking your head looking to choke you. He prefers side control as an avenue to choke you, ground and pound from top position isn’t his specialty. He is the UFC’s leader in submissions. He’s very good in scramble situations at finding your back and locking both hooks in. When you fight Charles Oliveira your gameplan shouldn’t be wrestle him to the ground and grind your way to a victory. Jiu Jitsu Wizards tend to have one deficiency, they need wrestling to take their opponents to the ground, Oliveira is not a dominant wrestler. He’s very capable of timing a double leg or working from the clinch, but a high level MMA wrestler should be able to have a kick boxing match against Oliveira.
Oliveira isn’t a dominant wrestler, but he’s a fantastic Muay Thai Guy. The variety of strikes he throws are nearly impossible to prepare for and he is deadly aggressive with his striking. I specifically like his jumping knee as a way to end a fight. Because Oliveira is a Jiu Jitsu Wizard, Oliveira can focus solely on the Muay Thai art without worrying about being taken down. He throws spinning elbows, jumping kicks to the face, teep kicks as jabs, all sorts of wild cool stuff.
Oliveira is super active, that’s usually a good sign for a fighter.

Things I don’t like:

Because Oliveira is so aggressive with his striking he can be caught with a counter punch. There’s usually an inverse relationship with aggressive striking and vulnerability. I won’t be surprised if Oliveira is caught with a big punch. He does leave his lead leg out there to be kicked, and I specifically noticed that he can be countered with a right hand when he throws an inside leg kick with his left leg.
Charles has had issues making 145 lbs and has found a home at 155 lbs. Guys like Paul Felder and Kevin Lee kill themselves to make 155 lbs, they don’t do it for fun or for their health, they do it because size gives you an advantage on fight night. Being a little smaller than your opponent isn’t the end of the world, but Oliveira will be the smaller guy against Kevin Lee. Oliveira has a history of being overpowered by bigger guys like Paul Felder.
If you look at Charles Oliveira’s record, the guys he has lost to are very good MMA fighters. The fighters he’s beaten seem to be lower level MMA guys that he arguably should beat. It’s not Charles Oliveira’s fault Sean Shelby matched him up with Nik Lentz 3 times, but it is a thing.
Oliveira hasn’t gone to a decision once in 13 fights. I’ve seen him gas out against bigger guys, I’m not ready to say his cardio is his strength. I’m looking at 25 UFC fights, only 2 have gone to decision. That’s a weird statistic.

Prediction

The only advantage I see for Kevin Lee in this fight is if he can overpower Charles Oliveira in top position with ground and pound. If Kevin Lee can’t win with top position ground and pound, I don’t see how this fight is much different from the 2nd Kevin Lee vs. “Crazy” Al Iaquinta fight. If Oliveira presents grappling challenges for Kevin Lee on the ground, he will eventually start hurting Kevin Lee with his Muay Thai on the feet. I think we are looking at a 3rd round stoppage from Charles Oliveira in the wonderful city of Brasília, Brazil.

Betting

Unless Tristar has turned Kevin Lee into a much better fighter, which is not out of the question, I don’t see why betting Charles Oliveira in Brasília, Brazil as an underdog is a bad idea. Based on my experience, sometimes you get better odds on the props as it gets closer to fight time.

Charles Oliveira Wins (+120)
Charles Oliveira Wins in Round 3 (+950)
Charles Oliveira Wins in Round 4 (+1350)
Charles Oliveira Wins by KO (+750)

Gilbert Burns (-170) Demian Maia (+150)

**Demian Maia** (6'1", 72" reach, 42 years old, Brazil)

Things I like:

Demian Maia is the Wizard of all Jiu Jitsu Wizards. When Dorothy and Co. are skipping along the yellow brick road, they were off to see Demian Maia. Maia’s more of a wizard than a mutant on the ground, but if you want to call Maia a mutant, I’d be okay with it, he’s on the Jiu Jitsu Mount Rushmore. Except for you Brendan Fitzgerald, stop biting off The Fight Guy trying to make it as the token white guy in the UFC commentating crew. I know the UFC is sending your ass to Brazil to commentate a crowdless fight, don’t be stealing my stuff anymore without asking.
Anyways, Maia attacks with a single leg takedown. He can pull half guard and end up attacking the single leg. A good wrestler can stuff him more often than not, but, if he latches on to you, you will be wearing him as a backpack for the rest of the round.
Demian Maia is not a small 170 lbs fighter. He used to fight at 185 lbs, he carries some size with him. He can still throw a left hand with a little bit of power and Maia’s choking squeeze is unmatched, look at the GIF above.
Maia’s been doing Jiu Jitsu at the highest of levels for almost his entire life. His body is conditioned to grapple through fatigue, this is what he does. This is his nature. I’m also a little bit of a believer in old man strength carrying over into grappling strength within the octagon.
Very durable fighter.

Things I don’t like:

Fighting is and will always be a young man’s sport, Maia is 42 years old. Old man strength or not, younger is better.
Fatigue is a real factor in every one of Maia’s fights. When Maia hangs onto his opponent like a backpack with that body triangle, his legs will burn out.
His lead leg is open for huge leg kicks. Jorge Masvidal smashed his lead leg when he wasn’t engaged in grappling exchanges.
I don’t like how Ben Askren hit him in the face so many times. Ben Askren is not a high level striker.
Maia will take round 3’s off assuming he won the first 2 rounds.

**Gilbert Burns** (5'10", 71" reach, 33 years old, Brazil)

Things I like:

Gilbert Burns is a mutant on the ground (I’m watching you Fitzgerald). Bruns’ grappling is so high level that it’s not unreasonable to think he can cancel out Maia’s and turn this thing into a kick boxing match.
Burns’ striking has evolved over the years. He features a really strong low calf kick and some big right hands. He has a tendency to be a little wild with his right hand.
Really good Judo throws.
Gilbert Burns seems to corner and coach a lot of fighters. He’s always around the mat, corning fighters, teaching and learning. In hockey they call someone like that a, “rink rat”. I’m not sure what the equivalent is in grappling, but that’s was Burnsy is. That can only be good for his fighting career.

Things I don’t like:

Burns has moved up to 170 lbs from 155 lbs. He’s not a small 170 lbs fighter, but his cardio hasn’t been great in this division. Carrying a little extra weight may have taxed his cardio.
Burns didn’t overmatch Gunnar Nelson with his striking. I thought he would have more of an advantage on the feet with Gunnar.
Gunnar also found the clinch against the fence. I’m not sure even Gilbert Burns can survive a standing clinch against the fence against Demian Maia.

Prediction

Originally, I figured the grappling would cancel out and we were looking at a kickboxing match. In that situation I thought Burns’ striking was better. But after watching the tape I’m not in love with Burns as I thought I’d be. Demian Maia is a stud, he has a little size on Burns and I can see Maia taking Burns’ back from the clinch against the fence. Push comes to shove, I’m still going with the younger fighter to win a decision, but I’m not confident.