UFC Copenhagen

UFC Mexico City Recap

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UFC Mexico Betting Results

• Last week Todd Duffee was poked in the eye and could not continue. This week Jeremy Stephens was poked in the eye and could not continue. If you are saying, “Todd Duffee is a quitter” or “Jeremy Stephens wanted out” I am letting you know, your opinion is wrong. If a man is seeing double from an eye poke I cannot blame him for not continuing. It is easy to sit on your couch and call someone a quitter. It is not easy to step inside of an 8-sided shape and fight to a hypothetical life or death.
• The actions of the crowd in Mexico City need to be addressed by the UFC. Jeremy Stephens had a potentially severe eye injury and needed a protective escort to the medical facility. He needed to be shielded because the crowd was targeting him with Pesos, beer, popcorn, and whatever else was available to be thrown. Carla Esparza was drenched with beer before she could get back to her locker room to sit down. According to Angela Hill, Stephens was punched in the back of the head leaving the arena. That is not acceptable and the UFC needs to address it.

• Eye pokes are a problem in MMA. PRIDE gloves are different from UFC gloves. I am not recommending the UFC switch to PRIDE gloves because the black UFC glove is iconic. But a redesign of the UFC glove is not an unreasonable suggestion. I would also like to see referees take points away from fighters for eye pokes, hard warning in the locker room. There needs to be an incentive to not eye poke.

PRIDE glove vs. UFC glove

• Herb Dean has taken heat for Ben Askren vs. Robbie Lawler. Lately Herb hasn’t been on his game, he almost let Trevin Giles die in the octagon at the hands of Gerald Meerschaert. But he needs credit for giving the main event every chance to continue. Jason Herzog and Herb Dean are the gold standard for MMA refereeing.
• I do think there is a silver lining to this whole thing. With UFC Mexico behind us, I no longer have to listen to MMA fans talk about oxygen concentration at altitude. As a leader in the MMA community, I invite you to join me in shifting the conversation back to, “Which dude with his shirt off is going to beat the other dude with his shirt off?”

The Fight Guy: UFC Copenhagen, Denmark Breakdown

Jack Shore (-165) vs. Nohelin Hernandez (+145)

Jack Shore is a Welsh orthodox grappler primarily having fought for Cage Warriors. Shore is at his best when he grapples against the fence, finds double underhooks and takes you to the ground. Shore’s top game is strong, he maintains winning MMA positions when he takes the fight to the ground. Shore can be taken down from grappling exchanges against the fence. Mike Ekundayo found top position after working for double underhooks the 2nd round of their fight. Scott Malone enjoyed top position and octagon control winning the 1st round against Shore. Shore has worked to stand up every time I have seen him off of his back. I have not seen Shore’s striking tested. Shore showed a right hand set up by an obligatory jab that did have success in the 2nd and 3rd rounds against Malone, but Malone was fatiguing. Fatigue played a part in Shore’s striking success, Shore is 24 years old and he will be tested against Hernandez striking.

Nohelin Hernandez is a southpaw striker training at AKA. Hernandez has taken a couple of boxing fights before his short notice call up to the UFC to fight Marlon Vera. Hernandez is not a strong fighter on the ground, but Vera took his back early in round 1 and he did fight the hands. He even ended the round on top. Unfortunately Vera caught him with a flying knee in the 2nd round and the fight was over. One thing I really do like about Hernandez is he fights often. Every 2-3 months Hernandez is taking a fight, getting experience, which is important for a young fighter.

Prediction

We have a classic grappler vs. a striker and both fighters pose the other significant threats. I have watched 3 of Shore’s recent fights and he has never featured his striking as a primary part of his gameplan. He wants to initiate the clinch against the fence and take the fight to the ground. On the ground he is position over submission. Shore has good cardio and is fine with keeping winning top position for a 3 round decision. He will be making his UFC debut on Saturday. Hernandez has made his UFC debut already, he knows what the show is about. Hernandez has defended submissions from Vera but Vera took his back easily in the 1st round. Against a fighter that will consider position before submission, I think Hernandez will struggle a bit more. Hernandez fights out of AKA, can his grappling get better in the last couple months? That is a question that will only be answered in the fight. Will Hernandez's striking cause Shore problems? We don’t know, we haven’t seen Shore face a quality striker. Any time there is the question, “Can the striker defend his opponent’s grappling?” I side with the grappler. “If you can’t wrestle, you can’t fight.”-The Fight Guy. Wrestling prevails in this contest, Jack Shore wins by decision.

Betting

Shore’s grappling is the difference in this fight. Hernandez was taking boxing fights before this, I can’t imagine his wrestling has improved much. I like Hernandez’s submission defense, Shore winning by decision is a reasonable play here.

• Shore Wins by Decision (+300) $10 to win $30

Marc Diakiese (-150) vs. Lando Vannata (+130)

Marc Diakiese is a very dangerous striker. He has explosive kicks and he is starting to use them attacking his opponents legs. When I began researching this fight I thought his cardio and grappling would be an issue based on his build and his style of fighting. I was wrong, I don’t have an issue with his cardio, he has high output for 3 rounds and his grappling looks fine. If Diakiese is taken down he does have the skills, complemented by his athleticism, to get back to his feet. He lost 3 fights in a row to 3 very good fighters: Drakkar Klose, Dan Hooker, and Nasrat Haqparast. Remember the name Nasrat Haqparast, he is very good. There is no shame in that 3 fight losing streak.

Lando Vannata is also a very dangerous, creative striker. Lando does have a wrestling background that he implements, but he likes to keep the fight standing. I actually think Lando’s goal is the $50,000 fight bonus every fight. He does have a history of fatiguing as the fight wears on. The Drakkar Klose fight is an example. There were a lot of wrestling exchanges and Drakkar was the bigger fighter, these factors helped Lando fatigue in the 3rd round. I do think Vannata is slightly undersized for 155 lbs.

Prediction

My prediction is this will be a violent affair. Lando and Diakiese are going to stand up and strike, and I don’t think this fight sees the final bell. I would like to see Lando do that thing “Crazy” Al Iaquinta does, briefly go for a single leg, release, and come up with a punch. Size matters in MMA and Diakiese will be the bigger opponent, I will give him the edge as to which fighter wins by knockout. 3rd round knockout for Diakiese.

Betting

I’ll tell you what, both of these fighters have come close to disqualifications due to illegal knees to the head. If you can bet on that, bet on that. This fight will take place on the feet and both of these fighters are explosive strikers. I don’t see how this fight goes to decision, unless Lando uses his wrestling for 3 rounds, but I don’t see that happening. One of these guys is going to win by knockout. These odds for inside the distance are +125, that is a good bet.

• Fight does not go the distance (+125) $20 to win $25
• Diakiese wins in Round 3 (+1550) $10 to win $155

Macy Chiasson (-425) vs. Lina Lansberg (+340)

Macy Chiasson at 5'11" is a very big, long 135 lbs fighter. She uses her reach to move and box from the outside. She has a nice left body kick that is effective and gravity works in her favor in the clinch. She has very powerful hands and she will throw a flurry of punches if she thinks she has hurt you. Macy is a very talented prospect at 135 lbs. The one caveat I have seen in her game came in the Sarah Moras fight. Sarah opened the 1st round and put Macy right on her butt taking top position. From top position Macy struggled to get back to her feet for the majority of the round. Macy looks to still be evolving her guard game as a young fighter. As of now, it is her biggest weakness.

Lina Lansberg is a grappler. I’ve watched her last 3 fights and I feel like I've watch 45 minutes of grappling against the fence. She sliced Tonya Evinger open with an elbow along the fence in her most recent fight. I don’t really see any unique top game skills, I see a fighter who competes until the end, doesn’t have a cardio issue, and likes to clinch against the fence. Her nickname is the “Elbow Queen” but I have only seen one significant elbow in her last 3 fights. She is also 37 years old.

Prediction

When I think about who is going to win I try and look at the strength to weakness dynamics of each fighter. In this fight Chiasson has age, size, and boxing advantages. Lina does seem to be a fighter that can compete for 3 rounds, but Chiasson is 28 years old. Fighting is a young person’s game, 37 years old is a disadvantage. Will I be surprised if Lina takes this fight to the 3rd round tied 1–1? I wouldn’t, but I expect Chiasson to get a knockout in the 2nd round, her reach, size and youth is too much for Lina.

Betting

I think Macy wins this fight, but I don’t want to pay -425 to bet on Macy. Last week Sijara Eubanks messed up my parlay and Aldana hit Melo with everything but the kitchen sink and didn’t get knocked out, I think I might pass on low level MMA favorites.

• Pass

Brandon Davis (-155) vs. Giga Chikadze (+135)

Brandon Davis fought Kyung Ho Kang a couple weeks ago. What is new is Davis dropped down to the 135 lbs weight class. Now we have 2 fights to look at Brandon Davis at the weight class he needed to quit drinking beer and run 20 miles a day to make. So lets re re watch those 135 lbs fights. It sounds like Brandon Davis killed himself and depleted his body to make 135 lbs to have a slight size and power advantage, and it looks like Brandon Davis killed himself and depleted his body to make 135 lbs to have a slight size and power advantage. He was clipped a lot in the Randy Costa fight where I thought the fight might be over. We all know, if you cut too much weight the last thing to rehydrate is the cerebral fluid around your brain. I was actually in a spinal tap the other day where we were looking to see if meningitis was the cause of delirium. Guy wasn’t hydrated, couldn’t get spinal fluid. The whole time we are failing to get spinal fluid I’m thinking, “Should I tell these guys about fighters cutting too much weight or not?” The guy had to go back to the floor to be hydrated so there was spinal fluid to be taken next time. Anyways, Davis does look depleted at 135 lbs and his takedown defense still is a liability. It doesn’t surprise me he’s fighting so soon, if you dedicated your life to lose 1/3 of your body weight, you’d want to fight again before you gained it all back, too.

Giga Chikadze looks to be a Contender Series guy. What I do know about him is he is a kick boxer that looks to land a left kick that he refers to as, “Giga Kick.” Make of that what you will, but it is not an unimpressive body and head kick. He lost his Contender Series fight because he doesn’t have much of a ground game and fatigue helped highlight that in the 3rd round. He dominated the fight utilizing the “Giga Kick”, got tired and got choked out with a minute left. I can’t find his 2 recent fights but he won them both by submission under a minute so I am questioning the legitimacy of “Gladiator Challenge” because he doesn’t have a ground game. I just confirmed my suspicions, “Gladiator Challenge” isn’t competition.

Prediction

The UFC must have basically thought, “Eh, lets see what happens” when they put this fight together. I have no problem with it, this fight is going to be entertaining. Giga can kick you with his “Giga Kick” and Davis is a legitimate UFC level fighter who likes standing up and getting into fist fights. I refuse to believe Brandon Davis is going to be knocked out by the “Giga Kick” and a guy that has prepared for this fight by submitting C.J. Baines. Giga has 0 ground game and can’t wrestle. Brandon Davis might spend some time on the ground with Giga in this fight. Brandon Davis survives the “Giga Kick” and knocks this dude out in the 2nd round. This fight is taking place at 145 lbs. I had previously thought this fight was taking place at 135 lbs.

Betting

I have been in the gambling game for a couple weeks now because I do this blog. One thing I have noticed is people “cap fights.” They give a %chance a fighter can win the fight and compare it to the odds to see if it is a good bet. So I am going to cap my first fight and tell you whether it is a good bet. Giga Chikadze has a 0% chance of bringing his “Giga Kick” into the UFC octagon and winning against Brandon Davis.

• Davis Wins (-135) $40 to win $30

Siyar Bahadurzada (+160) vs. Ismail Naurdiev (-185)

Siyar Bahadurzada has never been knocked out in 32 professional fights and he fights like no one can knock him out. Siyar wants to stand and bang, that’s where he feels most comfortable. And honestly, after seeing his chin against Millender, I don’t blame him. I’ve never seen someone more concussed and shake their head like, “You didn’t catch me, nah.” The man has a chin. Siyar is proud of his left body kick and the throws his hands with power. For a fighter that puts everything he has into his punches, his cardio holds up nicely. His ground game isn’t a liability and his wrestling is okay. It’s not a weakness, but if Siyar’s wrestling was anything to talk about he should have used it more against Curtis Millender.

Ismail Naurdiev is a fantastic striker, his nickname is “The Austrian Wonderboy.” I think his takedown defense isn’t terrible but I’m burying the lead…his cardio is TERRIBLE. He’s fought twice in the UFC and in each fight he has gassed out after 1 round. Why is this? I am guessing genetics. This is two fights in a row with absolutely atrocious cardio. The real question is, can it be fixed? This question will only be answered by fighting Siyar in Denmark.

Prediction

I cannot pick Ismail Naurdiev to win this fight. His striking is better, he’s younger, this fight will stay on the feet, everything is favoring Naurdiev but his cardio is only good for 1 round. There is a possibility Naurdiev gets the knockout in round 1. But Siyar has literally never been knocked out. Naurdiev’s cardio won’t allow him to win this fight if it extends beyond the 1st round. Siyar wins this fight by by knockout in the 3rd round.

Betting

Apparently everyone is getting knocked out in Copenhagen. The odds for this fight to end inside the distance are +110. In the 1st round Naurdiev has a serious chance to KO the 35 year old Siyar. In the 2nd round Naurdiev will be exhausted from trying to KO the 35 year old Siyar and there is a good chance Siyar knocks out a fatigued Naurdiev.

• Fight won’t go the distance (+110) $20 to win $22
• Siyar Wins in Round 3 (+1475) $10 to win $147.50

Alessio Di Chirico (+130) Makhmud Muradov (-150)

Alessio Di Chirico is primarily a boxer. He likes to keep his distance and he’s capable of carrying power moving backwards. He’s comfortable throwing both of his hands and features a left body kick that I don’t hate. Like most fighters from developing MMA countries like Italy, he does not have a developed ground game. Alessio will shoot for a takedown if the opportunity presents itself, but he can’t do much with top position. Kevin Holland had him in the clinch and Alessio looked comfortable, he’s okay in the clinch but I’m worried about the bottom position. Alessio isn’t an aggressive fighter, especially when he’s fatigued. The 3rd round of the Kevin Holland fight was telling, Holland had an injured shoulder and Alessio didn’t take advantage of it. Also, if you look at the Oluwale Bamgbose fight you’ll see what I mean. It’s possible he was unaware because of a language barrier, but I feel like that information transcends language. It’s also possible fatigue set in. Alessio’s last two, 3rd rounds he looked very fatigued.

“This is the best MMA fighter in the world.”-Floyd Mayweather

Makhmud Muradov is on an 11 fight win streak and is the lone MMA fighter signed by Floyd Mayweather’s “The Money Team.” He likes to circle the octagon and look for opportunities to close the distance and be explosive with his striking. He is not a fighter that will walk you down, I would classify him as passive. At his best, he will lull you to sleep and change directions from backing up to an explosive knee. He was caught recently out of the clinch with a right hand which showed me that he has a very annoying habit of wagging his finger when his opponent hits him hard. I don’t like this practice in general, everyone saw you get hit in the face. I don’t think his ground game is anything unique, but he is capable of holding his opponents on the ground and punching them. Muradov seems to capitalizing on “moments of weakness” from his opponents. He hurts them and finds full mount to finish fights or delivers devastating strikes that finish his fights. Whatever the scenario he capitalizes on opportunities. What I like about Muradov is he fights very often, every 2 months he fights which is important for a young fighter and is very unique. It was at this moment of thought something seemed weird and I realized, “Everyone who he has fought has been terrible.” I scrolled through his 11 fight win streak to find his first loss, “David Ramirez.” This Ramirez kid kicked him in the nuts to begin the fight. less than 2 minutes later Muradov was giving his cup to someone in the crowd who proceeded to pass it around and he was in the ring in only his boxer briefs. I guess they gave him a new jock and he continued. In the second round he grabbed his shoulder and told the ref he’s done. Tapology says he broke his clavicle. This fighter has skills, but his opponents have all been terrible. It makes me think Floyd is padding his record.

Prediction

Something seems up with this Muradov dude. Why is “The Money Team” signing this random dude crushing cans in Prague? And why is Floyd Mayweather saying, “He is the best MMA fighter in the world.” Alessio has about 5 fights in the UFC and he has been competitive, Muradov has not had competitive fight in years. When I first played hockey I played for Lakeside Fire Department, I was 8 years old. I was stick handling the puck around everyone, scoring so many goals, I was soooo good. Then, I joined the Midstate Select team and my linemates were Peter Papayanakos and Adam Styer and I played on the 3rd line. I wasn’t as good anymore. Whether or not this Muradov is a gigantic house of cards or not, “Iron Sharpens Iron.” I think Muradov has skills but its not just one fighter wasn’t good, all of his fights are against fighters who are bad. How is he going to react when he isn’t the biggest fish in the pond? He’s also taking this fight on short notice. There are too many red flags to think he is going to accept this fight on short notice and beat a bad UFC fighter. Alessio will control the octagon as Muradov circles around and octagon control will be the difference when the decision is made, Alessio wins a decision.

Betting

Apparently $20 is what I’m betting for this card. Muradov taking this fight short notice and the level of competition he has faced has lead me to believe this is a 50/50 fight and the Italian as a +125 underdog is a very good bet. Flipping through the prop bets, Muradov wins by submission stood out to me at +1400. The Italian isn’t good on the ground and I didn’t hate Muradov’s technique in top position. If Alessio was any sort of talented UFC fighter I wouldn’t make this bet.

• Alessio Di Chirico Wins (+125) $20 to win $25
• Muradov Wins by Submission (+1400) $5 to win $70

John Phillips (+110) vs. Alen Amedovski (-130)

John Phillip’s fight with Charles Byrd was a 4 minute tutorial on things that can happen to you in a cage fight if you can’t wrestle and don’t know jiu jitsu, “If you can’t wrestle, you can’t fight.”-The Fight Guy. John Phillips is a portly middleweight that will walk you down and try to hit you with his left hand. He is willing to get hit to do so.

Alen Amedovski has serious knockout power with his right hand. This is going to be a firefight.

Prediction

The difference in this fight is Amedovski is the more skilled knockout artist of the two fighters. I also think he has more MMA skill, Phillips will walk you down and want to have a slug fest. If that slug fest down not happen he is more likely to get frustrated like an infant crying than adjust his gameplan. Phillips relies on drudging forward and is willing to block punches with his face to close the distance to land his punch. Amedovski has the power to knock Phillips out with one punch, he will have serious trouble walking through Amedovski to land his punch. The southpaw vs. orthodox matchup might present an interesting dynamic to keep an eye on as this fight progresses. I think Amedovski is the more skilled fighter, I have to pick the more skilled fighter. Amedovski wins by knockout in the 1st round.

Betting

I’ll tell you what, if you can get good odds on a double knockout, this might be the fight to bet it. On paper this fight tells you there are two fighters and one of them is going to get knocked out in the 1st round. A lot of times these kinds of fights don’t play out as people think. Maybe fatigue sets in and a fighter no longer carries knockout power in later rounds, maybe one fighter wants to win the fight and doesn’t think engaging in a slug fest is the way to do it. That literally happened in John Phillip’s last fight. Amedovski is the more skilled MMA fighter, I think he wins this fight. Not bad logic to bet a man. Amedovski Wins is a decent bet. I’m going to give you a bonus pick because I just made it. In the history of MMA, no fighter has ever succeeded having one foot out and one foot in. Ronda Rousey was dabbling in Hollywood and Holly Holm famously knocked her out as a +900 underdog, Tyron Woodley was releasing rap songs and Kamaru Usman took his belt, Karolina Kowalkiewicz talked about being a mother and her career took a nose dive, look up Joe Rogan telling Brendan Schaub to quit fighting..my point is you need to be 100% committed or you will get hurt. This fact has stood the test of time in MMA. You know what screams 75% committed?…Breast implants. Joanna Jedrzejczyk just got them. I don’t blame her for doing so, if it’s something she wants go for it. What I am saying is, this is not a good sign for her 115 lbs fighting career. Michelle “The Karate Hottie” Waterson has talked about the championship belt and being the 1st mother to be a champion. She had a back and forth with the UFC on getting a title shot. Joanna Jedrzejczyk is a number 1 contender fight for Waterson and she wants that title. Waterson is a +300 underdog right now and that's a good bet. Apparently I’m betting $20 per fight this card so $20 on “The Karate Hottie” it is. That will be interesting for the people who scroll through just looking for the bets.

• Michelle Waterson Wins (+300) $20 to win $60
• Alan Amedovski Wins (-125) $31 to win $25

Nicolas Dalby (+120) vs. Alex Oliveira (-140)

Nicolas Dalby is a 34 year old UFC veteran from Copenhagen, imagine that. In that time he fought Darren Till to a draw and lost to Zak Cummings and Peter Sobotta. Dalby has been competing in Cage Warriors for the last 2 years. Dalby has a fantastic left high kick and he is best when he is walking his opponent down. He struggles with grappling and if I was a betting man I would bet grappling was the reason for his 2 UFC loses. His cardio is one of his strengths and he carries power for all 5 rounds. He has never been knocked out in his professional career and both of his hands carry power. Nicolas Dalby vs. Ross Houston had to be stopped because blood was making the octagon too slippery, that’s an unbelievable fact.

Alex Oliveira is a very capable muay thai practitioner. He’s also a very capable wrestler. Clinching with Carlos Conduit was apart of the gameplan and he choked him in the 2nd round of that fight. The Mike Perry fight was a very similar matchup to what he is going to see in Copenhagen, and clinching was apart of that gameplan. The problem with a grappling heavy gameplan is it is a taxing style of fighting and I do not believe Oliveira has good cardio. In the 2nd round of the Mike Perry fight, Oliveira tries to rest when he’s dancing around in his southpaw karate stance.

Prediction

Oliveira is the better grappler, Dalby has trouble with grapplers evidenced by the Philip Mulpeter fight. Dalby has much better cardio than Oliveira. In order to capitalize on the cardio differential Dalby will need to “embrace the grind” and engage in clinching, possibly put Oliveira on his back and make him defend left hand punches in the 2nd round. I think that is the key to this fight, can Dalby make Oliveira work for 3 rounds? If you can answer that question you know if Dalby can win this fight. We will never know until the fight happens but I believe Dalby can make Oliveira work for 3 rounds and knock him out in the 3rd round with a left hand. The hometown boy wins by knockout in the 3rd round.

Betting

Oliveira has all the skills to win this fight easily. But he is a bull fighter. Bull fighters are wild people, you have to be to do that. “Don’t mess with bull fighters” is up there with “don’t mess with guys with cauliflower ear.” Bull fighters don’t enter the octagon and execute grappling gameplans for 3 rounds. Oliveira may grapple in the 1st round but he is going to strike with Dalby and there is a good chance Oliveira is tired in the 3rd round. Dalby doesn’t fatigue in 3 round fights, and he might finish the fight against a fatigued Oliveira. +1650 is decent odds for a 3rd round Dalby knockout based on the fatigue of Oliveira and Dalby’s striking ability and cardio.

• Dalby Wins in Round 3 (+1650) $13 to win ($215)
• Dalby Wins by Knockout (+520) $5 to win ($26)

Ovince St. Preux (+200) vs Michal Oleksiejczuk (-240)

Michal Oleksiejczuk is an undersized 205 lbs fighter that comes out with spastic movement. He does have deceptive power, in his last two fights he’s hurt Villante with a liver shot and KO’d that Russian. Khalil Rountree gassed out in the middle of round 1 and the rest of the fight consisted of Oleksiejczuk technically picking him apart. For an undersized guy I was surprised to learn Oleksiejczuk tested positive for estrogen blockers. He’s off the steroids now because if you get caught twice by USADA you are screwed.

Ovince St. Preux is a very good wrestler and tremendous on the ground for round 1. He is big for the division and has tremendous strength. But all those muscles need oxygen and OSP is only good for one round these days.

Prediction

It’s possible OSP gets this fight to the ground and executes the “St. Preux” choke, because he is very strong on the ground for one round. But, beyond this round 1 finish for OSP, I don’t think he has much of a chance at winning this fight. His career is trending downwards and judging by his last fight I don’t see reason for rejuvenation. Even with being off the steroids I think this Polish guy extends the fight through technical striking long enough to make OSP tired. If Nikita Krylov can choke a fatigued OSP out, I think this Polish dude can knock him out in the 2nd round, even without the steroids.

Betting

I do not want to bet on this fight. OSP is at the tail end of his career and I have a strict “Don’t bet on the Polish” policy that has worked out well for me so far.

• Pass

Khalil Rountree (-125) vs. Ion Cuțelaba (+105)

Khalil Rountree is the most dangerous man on the planet for one round. His record is filled with round 1 finishes. If the fight exits the 1st round, historically he is in trouble. In the Dan Jolly fight he showed the ability to sprawl to defend takedowns. The Saki fight was an impressive performance where Rountree showed he can counter kicks with a straight left and also counter punch. He obviously had trouble with the thai clinch in the Johnny Walker fight. None of that stuff matters. Rountree went to Thailand and learned Muay Thai. He came back to America to fight my boy Eryk Anders and he brought his new muay thai skill set. He is a completely different fighter. He will never have great cardio but his cardio isn’t a glaring problem anymore. He now has tremendous muay thai technique to complement his physical attributes.

Ion Cutelaba was popped for steroids. I ran across this trying to find out what the Polish guy was caught for. I might have to google each fighters name and “steroids” to see what comes up before I release this in the future. That is good information to know when you’re trying to predict fights. It looks like he had a procedure done involving a blood transfusion. USADA doesn’t allow these types of procedures because they don’t want people manipulating blood, think Lance Armstrong and the Tour De France or TJ Dillishaw, extra stuff in blood that helps cardio. At least that's what I think is the reason why USADA doesn’t allow it. I guess if a guys nickname is “Hulk” and paints himself green for weigh ins, he might be a candidate for what was referred to as “alternative therapy” in the USADA report. Oh god, this is the guy that walks across the octagon to do the slit throat thing in the face of his opponent during Bruce Buffer’s introductions. That’s Bruce’s time, not yours Ion. Anyways, Cutelaba has a Greco-Roman wrestling background. Greco-Roman concentrates on the upper body but not shooting double legs and single legs. Which makes sense because I have seen Cutelaba use trips from the clinch to take his opponent to the ground. His jiu jitsu game isn’t anything special but he makes himself reasonably heavy in top position. He carries a lot of power in his hands for the 1st round, he’s very capable of knocking his opponents out in round 1. After round 1 he has a serious cardio problem which has allows him to get hit a lot. His USADA suspension sounds like he was “Allegedly” blood doping. In his most recent fight Glover Teixeira survived very powerful punches in the face and was met with a gassed opponent in the 2nd round. I should also note that Cutelaba used to be a heavyweight and has cut down to 205 lbs. I don’t think that information is notable because this fight will take place at 205 lbs, so who cares what his cardio issue is, he has a cardio problem.

Prediction

I never thought I would say this but Rountree has a significant cardio advantage in this fight. It’s a lot easier being the hammer compared to the nail but Rountree looks like a brand new fighter training in Thailand and I am giving him credit for the better cardio. 3 years ago Rountree had trouble with Andrew Sanchez’s wrestling, but those were double leg shots. Can Rountree handle Cutelaba’s Greco Roman wrestling against the fence? Does Cutelaba want to have a wrestling heavy gameplan? Wrestling taxes your cardio, and he has a cardio problem. The fruit might not be worth the squeeze for that technique. I think we are looking at a stand up fight here. I don’t believe Cutebala’s cardio has gotten any better. I know if you get caught 2 times with USADA, you’re kind of screwed, so I doubt he’s messing around anymore…“allegedly.” Cutelaba is going to walk across the octagon to look Rountree in the face and do the throat slit thing, having no respect for Bruce’s time, give it all he has in round 1, fail, and get knocked out in the 2nd round. Rountree wins by 2nd round knockout.

Betting

Rountree winning by knockout in the 2nd round isn’t an unreasonable bet with his new muay thai stance and Cutelaba’s cardio problems.

• Rountree wins by knockout (+170) $10 to win $17
• Rountree wins (-125) $12.50 to win $10
• Rountree wins in Round 2 (+600) $5 to win $30

Gunnar Nelson (+110) vs. Gilbert Burns (-130)

Gunnar Nelson doesn’t cut much weight to be at 170 lbs. He is one of the guys that feels like cutting a low of weight has diminishing returns. So, he is a little undersized for the division. I actually think Gilbert Burns will have a size advantage in this contest. I am concerned about Gunnar’s striking defense. He features a karate style but only as a means to figure out how to clinch. Gunnar wants to grapple. I am not particularly fond of Gunnar’s guard, but he is very skilled at taking backs and finding full mount. He is also very good at keeping and finishing from the full mount position. I think Leon Edwards is very good, I also think more people will know Santiago Ponzinibbio a year from now. But I am starting to question Gunnar’s chin. Gunnar grew up in karate which is why he features a karate stance. It’s also why Edwards used the thai clinch elbow so effectively in their fight. Gunnar has heart, he got his butt kicked by Leon Edwards but he finished that fight in the full mount position. The 2nd round ended with Leon almost ending the fight. That speaks to his heart and to his cardio.

Gilbert Burns is not fighting up a weight class, this is Gilbert Burns’ weight class. He took a short notice fight in Uruguay and my blog specifically stated he will never return to 155 lbs again, and he won’t. This makes it tough to research because a fighter has different attributes fighting at 155 lbs compared to 170 lbs.

Prediction

Gilbert Burns will be the better striker. His last fight was on short notice at 170 lbs, his new weight class. In that fight his left ankle was taped and his left leg was brutalized to the point he could not stand up in the 3rd round. That fight was a little more than a month ago, that ankle/calf may not be fully healed. Burns also brought a cardio issue into that fight. We all know Burns is a Jiu Jitsu wizard and grappling will be the focus of the fight. Burns also campaigned for this fight when Gunnar’s opponent pulled out so he must feel pretty confident about the matchup. I hate Gunnar’s striking and I think there is a chance Burns wins by knockout in the 2nd round.

Betting

I think there is a decent chance Burns’ grappling is good enough to keep a majority of this fight standing. I believe Burns has a big advantage on the feet and there is a reasonable chance Burns wins by knockout. I also saw Gilbert Burns have a cardio issue taking a short notice fight in Uruguay and he’s lucky to have survived that 3rd round. If there is one attribute Gunnar has a clear advantage it’s cardio and will to win. If Burns is compromised in the 3rd round it’s entirely possible Gunnar finds full mount and finishes this fight.

• Burns wins by knockout (+510) $5 to win $25
• Gunnar Wins in Round 3 (+2025) $5 to win $100

Danilo Belluardo (+500) vs Mark Madsen (-700)

Mark Madsen is an Olympic Greco-Roman wrestler. What is Greco-Roman wrestling? It’s a question I had a couple months ago and I am sure some of you do as well, it’s wrestling that doesn’t allow holds below the waist. No double legs or single legs. Not sure if feet can be used for trips. So, Madsen isn’t an expert at double leg shots but he’s good clinching against the fence and you might see a double overhook throw. . He has a right hand he thinks has power and likes to use. He is very skilled at wrestling, he is not skilled at jiu jitsu. It looks like 2018 he began fighting and he is a wrestler with a right hand. He tries submissions over position on the ground, I don’t think he has skills beyond holding his opponent on the ground. An interesting fact about Madsen is, this is his first 155 lbs fight. He wrestled at 162–165 lbs. He fought at 170 lbs. This fight takes place at 155 lbs.

Danilo Belluardo seems to have a grappling heavy style. I was really trying to see what he looks like from the bottom position but I was unsuccessful. He has had success in Italy grappling, his UFC debut he lost in the 2nd round by knockout. He gained top position for both the 1st and 2nd rounds and either gassed out or was hurt.

Prediction

Mark Madsen will take this fight to the ground where he won’t gain side control or mount. Most of this fight will take place up against the fence. I don’t believe Madsen has the skills to submit Belluardo on the ground and his right hand isn’t special. Madsen wins this fight by decision.

Betting

The only bet I am flirting with is Madsen wins by decision. He is a high level Greco-Roman wrestler, but he isn’t a jiu jitsu practitioner. What that means is he will take the fight to the ground and try and throw elbows and punches, “ground and pound.” What he won’t do is take Belluardo’s back or pass guard to side control, any sort of head an arm choke is unlikely. There is a possibility of a standing guillotine because Belluardo isn’t a stranger to presenting his neck. Madsen vs. Chay Ingram looks like a man who eats raw meat so it kind of scared me away from the decision prop bet. I also didn’t like the way Belluardo was finished the second the Alvarez had top position in his UFC debut.

• Pass

Jared Cannonier (+200) vs Jack Hermansson (-240)

Jack Hermansson was finished with a barrage of punches by Thiago Santos. No shame in that for one round Thiago Santos might be the best middleweight on the planet. I would have really liked to see how that fight played out in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Hermansson ate early shots in that round, I don’t think it was a case of a weak chin. I first noticed Hermansson when he cut through Gerald Meerschaert like butter. One thing I noticed is when Hermansson finds dominant positions like full mount and flattens you out in back mount his instinct is to punch not submit. And Hermansson is a mutant on the ground, he will find those positions in this fight. I can confirm he is a mutant on the ground because he finished David Branch with a guillotine. A couple weeks ago a guy on Reddit told me my knowledge of MMA was not high because I made the statement, something like, “Grabbing a guillotine and pulling guard is a terrible decision, it never works, you always end up on bottom position with the other dude on top. This is a losing MMA position.” I still feel like that, but not with Hermansson, when he pulled guard with a guillotine my gutted sense something was right in the world. I hate guys pulling guillotine guard and I liked when Hermansson did, that’s when I awarded him, “Mutant on the ground” status. I don’t believe Hermansson has a weak chin despite being finished by Santos in the 1st round. Souza hit him with some good right hands and he ate them. But, I do believe boxing is the weakest part of Hermansson’s game. I do think he is a good defensive boxer, he lands moving backwards and he is aware to keep his guard up leaving a clinch. Jacare Souza is also a mutant on the ground and Hermansson won on the ground on 2 weeks notice, this kid is a threat to the Middleweight champ, whoever it is in a month.

Jared Cannonier has had two fights at 185 lbs. He previously fought at 205 lbs. His stand up looked stagnant fighting Jan Blachowicz. There wasn’t much head movement, he never landed on Jan and lost the fight being taken down. He was more active in his next fight with Reyes throwing his hands more. He paid for it being knocked out in the 1st round. Entering into every fight I keep hearing the announcers quote Cannonier saying something like, “If they think I can’t grapple, they’re in for a surprise.” Any time you hear that, that fighter usually has a hard time grappling and is over compensating. But, David Branch took him down and he kept getting back up, so he backed up his statement. I really don’t like the stagnation of his stand up. He fought Anderson Silva and he looked like a traffic cone. I haven’t had a chance to monitor his cardio at 185 lbs because all his fights at 185 lbs have ended in the 1st round. His cardio wasn’t an issue at 205 lbs but he also doesn’t like cutting weight and it’s a 20 lbs difference to get down to 185 lbs.

Prediction

We know that Jared Cannonier has improved his grappling, he keeps talking about it and at some point this weekend you will hear, “If Jack Hermansson thinks I can’t grapple he’s in for a surprise.” The problem is Jack Hermansson is a mutant on the ground. You can dedicate yourself to the ground game and grappling, you might even look alive against David Branch, but when you travel to Europe to fight Jack Hermansson, he is going to eat you alive on the ground unless you are very high level. I don’t even believe it’s possible for Cannonier to learn to compete with Hermansson on the ground given the age he’s trying to learn. But can Cannonier knock Hermansson out? That answer is yes. The problem is, I think that is his only chance at winning. Cannonier’s standup is too stagnant, he won’t be able to catch Hermansson with one of those shots you don’t see. Cannonier will have to overwhelm Hermansson without being taken down and I don’t think that is likely. I am also unsure of where Cannonier’s cardio is. I saw Hermansson go 5 rounds with Jacare Souza on 2 weeks notice, I don’t know where Cannonier’s cardio is. Cannonier’s stagnation will allow Hermansson to dictate this fight with his grappling. I don’t think Cannonier sees a 3rd round. Hermansson likes to strike from dominant positions before he chokes, Hermansson wins this fight in the 2nd round by knockout from the mount.

Betting

This is a 5 round fight. Sometimes I feel like a striker will fatigue and lose their knockout power as the fight gets into the later rounds. I feel like a guy who is a threat to finish from dominant jiu jitsu positions can be more of a threat to finish a fight in the later rounds.

• Hermansson wins inside the distance (-140) $21 to win $15
• Hermansson wins by knockout (+330) $15 to win $50
• Hermansson Wins (-240) $24 to win $10

UFC Copenhagen Betting