UFC Madison Square Garden
UFC Singapore Recap
- Ben Askren does not suck, he lost a grappling match to the greatest MMA grappler of all time, Demian Maia. I appreciated watching the two skill sets. Having said that, Askren’s UFC career has not gone well.
- Ciryl Gane looks unbelievable as a heavyweight. If he can stuff a takedown, he has a ton of potential.
- Muslim Salikhov’s takedown defense is now excellent, good luck kickboxing with that dude. He called out Li Jingliang to a fight in China.
- I’m still bitter about my Singapore shirt not arriving from Amazon in time for my UFC Singapore YouTube video.
- President Trump is rumored to be attending UFC 244. He would be the first president of the United States to attend a UFC event. What a world we live in.
- What happens if Diaz vs. Masvidal is a majority draw?
Julio Arce (+110) Hakeem Dawodu (-120)
Julio Arce is 5’7” with a 70” reach. I saw Arce in Rochester. My wife wasn’t sure what she was getting herself into and then Arce walks out to Mark Anthony’s “Vivir Mi Vida” and she was ready for the blood. Arce is primarily a southpaw boxer who does his best work with combinations on the inside. His takedown defense is very good and he features a left high kick when his opponent doesn’t present a takedown threat. He has tremendous cardio and can be opportunistic with his grappling but grappling isn’t plan A. Tremendous cardio helps Arce recover when he’s hurt. He was hurt in the Moraes fight and won the 3rd round. I think there is a reasonable argument to say he came back to win that fight. I do think Acre can struggle against fighters that are longer than him.
Hakeem Dawodu is 5'8" with A 72" reach. Dawodu is a counter puncher. If his opponent isn’t aggressive I actually don’t think he would throw a single punch in a fight. Dawodu uses lower leg kicks when he can’t counter punch his opponent. These leg kicks serve as safe strikes that help him score points as he waits to counter punch. In his first two fights in the UFC I thought his striking defense was poor but I can see improvements as his UFC career has matured. Dawodu’s grappling has not been test and his Jiu Jitsu has not been seen in the UFC. I haven’t seen a problem with Dawodu’s cardio.
Prediction
This is a very interesting fight to think about. I first want to point out that Dawodu has a size advantage, 1 inch in height and 2–3 inches in reach flirts with what I like to call, functional reach advantage.” Watching tape on Arce I did find that he struggles with longer opponents. Arce is an aggressive boxer that plays right into Dawodu’s style, he wants to counter punch an aggressive opponent. Arce being a southpaw kind of messes up Dawodu’s lower leg kick he likes to throw at his opponents lead leg. Dawodu will now have to aim for Arce’s right leg in the southpaw stance. Arce will have enough time to avoid the kick taking that weapon away from Dawodu. With Dawodu being exclusively a counter puncher Arce is dictating how this fight goes as the aggressor. Back to Dawodu’s striking defense. Arce is going to test his chin, there is a very real chance Arce starches Dawodu with his left hand before this thing is over. Dawodu worked on defensive striking but Arce is the toughest opponent he’s ever faced so we will see how much better his defensive striking is. We also need to talk about Arce’s grappling advantage. If this fight goes to the ground Arce looks to have an advantage. I also like Arce’s cardio over Dawodu’s. It is also fair to say that Arce is a massive step up in competition for Dawodu. After contemplating all of these factors I believe Dawodu wins a decision is the most likely result. I like the size advantage and Arce’s style plays into Dawodu’s strength. Hard to ignore that.
Betting
I’m really not in love with anything prop related. Arce will be aggressive in the 3rd round if the fight is 1–1 or he’s down 2–0. Maybe Dawodu or Arce get the Finnish in the 3rd? I’m not in love with Dawodu’s cardio to bet on a 3rd round finish. I don’t hate an Arce 3rd round finish at +2000 but I would just be guessing. I this is a close fight, I would like Dawodu at -115 and that could happen as the fight becomes closer. But I’ll take Dawodu at -130, I like his size advantage.
- Dawodu Wins (-120) $12 to win $10
Lyman Good (-110) Chance Rencountre (+100)
Lyman Good is 6' with a 74" reach, he fights out of Tiger Schulmann’s Mixed Martial Arts. A couple years ago we had a failed drug test counter claim contaminated supplement situation. Make of that what you will. Good’s is very strong in the clinch. He can land elbows and punches that threaten the fight’s end. Good is also heavy in the top position should he take the fight to the ground and he has powerful ground in pound. He’s an orthodox boxer that is heavy on his lead leg, but counters leg kicks with punches, and he does carry power. In the Demian Maia fight his gameplan was to counter Maia with a right hand. This kind of admits defeat and limits your path to victory to a punch KO. He will face another wrestler/grappler but it’s not Demian Maia so I’m not sure how much I can take from that. An interesting situation happened in the Elizeu Zaleski fight. His corner asked him, “What’s holding you back?” Good replies, “I don’t want to get knocked out.” His corner told him, “Go get knocked out, let it go.” Cue the Mike Perry clip. 7:17
Chance Rencountre is 6'2" with a 75" reach, he fights out of Alliance MMA. Rencountre needs to take the fight to the ground to have success. So, the question heading into his fights is, “Can he take his opponent to the mat?” He likes to catch kicks to initiate the takedown, he likes to duck punches and shoot a timed double leg, and when neither of those is working he will wade forward and hope to clinch. When the fight hits to mat his long limbs help his ground game and Rencountre is a threat to end a fight on the ground. Rencountre stays at a safe distance striking with his opponent. He has a long step in left hand but he can be hit. Rencountre has a very good chin and decent cardio. This is the 1st fight Rencountre hasn’t had a job for, so i’m expecting his best performance.
Prediction
The key to this fight is, can Rencountre take the fight to the mat? I think he can. Good isn’t a kicker, so I don’t plan on Rencountre catching kicks to score a takedown. Inversely, I don’t think Good will have a knee to discourage Rencountre from shooting naked. I see Rencountre ducking punches and taking this fight to the ground consistently in this fight. Rencountre is the superior grappler and will threaten to finish the fight along with test Good’s cardio. I don’t expect this to be a completely one sided fight, Good is very strong in the clinch and can threaten a KO with his boxing but Rencountre has the skills to win by rear naked choke in the 2nd or 3rd round.
Betting
It looks like Rencountre is a +100 “underdog.” I don’t hate that, I think he does have the skills to win this fight and I am expecting this to be his best performance now that he is training full time. I don’t hate the Rencountre submission prop of +500. I think a lot of this fight takes place on the ground and Rencountre has a huge advantage on the ground.
- Rencountre Wins (+100) $10 to win $10
- Rencountre Wins by Submission (+500) $5 to win $25
Katlyn Chookagian (-155) Jennifer Maia (+145)
Jennifer Maia is 5'4" with a 64" reach, she fights out of Chute Boxe. Maia likes to participate in a kickboxing match. She’s not great in the clinch and her takedown defense has failed her in the UFC on multiple occasions. She’s comfortable in guard, without a strong desire to get back to her feet. This is her 2nd time missing weight at 125 lbs in the UFC, and she looked bad at weigh ins. I almost watched every Jennifer Maia UFC fight, but I just couldn’t make it through the Roxanne Modafferi fight. Having said that, I consider myself the thee expert pundit on Jennifer Maia, I refuse to believe another person went back and reviewed more Jennifer Maia fights than I.
Katlyn Chookagian is 5'9" with a 68" reach, her head coach is Mark Henry. Chookagian is a karate fighter that tends to fight moving backwards. She utilizes her reach really well to land strikes consistently throughout the fight. Because of her long reach and her ability to move, lower leg kicks have caused her some trouble in previous fights. In her most recent fight it looks like she made an adjustment to sit down on her punches more and have a little bit less perimeter movement. When she fought Liz Carmouche I was impressed that she wasn’t over matched physically, I actually thought she won that fight. Chookagian has good takedown defense. Along the fence she won’t hesitate to land elbows to the head if her opponent is attempting a takedown. One of her best attributes is her right head kick. She doesn’t use it often but that is why it’s so effective, it can catch you off guard. Remember what we talked about earlier with the “ian” and “yan” names? I bet you’ll find an Armenian background if you dig into Chookagian’s background.
Prediction
Jennifer Maia prefers to strike. Chookagian prefers to strike. There is a functional reach advantage in this fight and I don’t see how Maia can overcome it. Chookagian will keep at a distance where she can hit Maia and Maia and Maia can’t hit her for however long the fight lasts. I would not be surprised if this fight ended with a Chookagian right head kick KO.
Betting
The other day I was in a procedure where we were spinal tapping a guy to see if his delirium was caused by bacterial meningitis. We had a hard time getting spinal fluid because he was dehydrated among other reasons. He needed to be sent to the floor to by hydrated so we could try the next day. Cerebral fluid around your brain and spinal fluid are the last to rehydrate after extreme dehydration. Weight cutting is extreme dehydration and Jennifer Maia had a horrible weight cut. I haven’t see a weight cut this bad since Aspen Ladd. You can’t take a shot well when the cerebral fluid around the brain isn’t hydrated and knockouts come easy. I bet on Aspen Ladd being knocked out and I’m going to bet on Jennifer Maia being knocked out. Chookagian will test that brain in round 1 and after watching Maia’s weigh in I don’t think her brain will be hydrated enough to take a shot.
- Chookagian Wins by KO (+1465) $5 to win $73.25
- Chookagian Wins in Round 1 (+1625) $5 to win $81.25
- Chookagian Wins (-155) $15.50 to win $10
Andrei Arlovski (+145) Jairzinho Rozenstruik (-155)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik is 6'4" with a 78" reach, and fights out of “Team Bigi Boy.” He’s a big guy, he hits hard, he can’t wrestle or do the jiu jitsu. The UFC gave him Alan Crowder to test his wrestling but he knocked him out with a jab in 3 seconds so we didn’t get to learn anything. I actually think I bet on Allen Crowder in that fight. I was on the phone with my friend who was also watching the fights. I was telling him I bet on the guy who just lost in 3 seconds.
Andrei Arlovski is 6'3" with a 77" reach, fighting out of American Top Team. Although I will say that Arlovski looks a lot bigger than Rozenstruik at weigh ins. Arlovski has been around for awhile now. He’s developed the reputation of having a bad chin, but he last 8 fights have ended in decision. I think that’s largely due a style change of being a more perimeter striker and consciously avoiding the point to the center of the octagon exchanges. You don’t last this long in the fight game having glaring weaknesses, Arlovski is a jack of all trades master of none these days.
Prediction
The big question for this fight is, “Can Arlovski take Rozenstruik down?” If you can answer that question you can bet a million bucks on this fight. Stefan Struve is an opponent with a similar skill set to Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Arlovski had a grappling gameplan. I have to believe he will have a grappling gameplan for this fight too. It’s hard for me to believe that Rozenstruik has learned takedown defense after looking so poor against Junior Albini at “Team Bigi Boy.” I gotta go Arlovski by decision.
Betting
Rozenstruik is a wild card, I am most likely going to pass on this fight but I’ll look at the odds to see if anything stands out. Rozenstruik wins by submission at +3000 is kind of fun but yea, I’m passing on this.
- Pass
Edmen Shahbazyan (-145) Brad Tavares (+135)
Edmen Shahbazyan is 6'2" with a 74" reach. He’s only 21 years old. Shahbazyan is a well rounded fighter, I really like his ability to judge distance and stay in his boxing range. His boxing is dangerous, he can finish his opponent in the 1st round. He is also a threat to finish fights on the ground and he is a capable wrestler. His fight with Darren Stewart is a red flag, his gameplan was to wrestle Stewart for 3 rounds but his cardio could not handle it. He was almost knocked out in the 3rd and did not look like the better fighter. I remember this kid being very impressive but the Darren Stewart fight eluded me until I researched him. He’s a very young fighter and I am excited to see him fight again.
Brad Tavares is 6'1" with a 74" reach. I hate the term “gatekeeper” but that is what fight fans refer to Tavares as. I think Tavares is a really good fighter, Tavares is 12–5 in UFC related fights. Nevertheless Tavares will be a serious test for the 21 year old. He’s primarily a boxer and fights behind a good jab. Takedown defense is one of Tavares’ strengths and his cardio is excellent. He will mix in a flying knee if his opponent is moving backwards after a boxing exchange and his calf kick can affect his opponent’s movement. As a boxer, Tavares is a little heavy on his lead leg.
Prediction
Any last name that ends with “ian” or “yan” is Armenian. My wife is Armenian so when I’m watching the cards and Edmen Shahbazyan fights, it’s a family affair. As a family unit, I’ve seen Shahbazyan starch two fighters in the 1st round, Charles Byrd and Jack Marshman. I thought this kid was going to be a future star. And then I researched him for this blog. Shahbazyan looked flawed in the Darren Stewart fight. His strategy was to put on a singlet and wrestle Stewart which is a very intelligent strategy. The problem is he gassed out in the 3rd round and Shahbazyan was lucky not to be knocked out. He was fortunate to land a couple desperation takedowns because Stewart was fatigued and Stewart can’t wrestle. My concern for this fight is Shahbazyan won’t be able to take Tavares down because his takedown defense is good. I’m also concerned Tavares’ cardio has an impact in this fight in the 3rd round. If Shahbazyan fatigues in this fight Tavares doesn’t have the power of Darren Stewart but he is very capable of knocking a fatigued Shahbazyan out in the 3rd round. Shahbazyan isn’t Jon Jones, he’s not going to wash out opponent after opponent at the age of 21, I am very concerned he loses this fight to the “gatekeeper”. I don’t see Shahbazyan taking this fight to the ground and implementing his jiu jitsu, I think we are looking at a fist fight. I’d be lying if I said Shahbazyan doesn’t deserve to be a very slight favorite, he does bring impressive striking abilities into the octagon, but I have Tavares winning by 3rd round Knockout.
Betting
Shahbazyan should be a slight favorite in this fight. No reason to bet either fighter at these odds. But I do like the 3rd round Tavares prop. We have seen Shahbazyan gas out in the past against Stewart and Stewart didn’t capitalize because he was fatigued. Tavares doesn’t have a cardio problem. If Shahbazyan shows up fatigued in the 3rd round of this fight, he has a major problem. I’m aware wrestling is more taxing compared to striking and I think this will be a fist fight. But Shahbazyan has only been out of the 1st round once and he didn’t look comfortable. If this fight gets to the 2nd round, I think we are seeing an uncomfortable Edmen Shahbazyan primed for a 3rd round KO.
- Tavares Wins in Round 3 (+1750) $5 to win $87.50
Shane Burgos (-225) Makwan Amirkhani (+205)
Shane Burgos is 5'11" with a 75" reach, he fights out of Tiger Schulmann’s Mixed Martial Arts. You don’t get a grenade tattoo’d on your right shoulder if you don’t think your right hand is something special. Burgos has good takedown defense, good cardio, and some powerful boxing. He keeps his hands low which allowed for Calvin Kattar to knock him out.
Makwan Amirkhani is 5'10" with a 72" reach, he fights out of SBG in Ireland. He’s a grappler more than a striker. He can have a hard time taking the fight to the ground.
Prediction
Burgos has the reach advantage and is the better striker. Burgos’ takedown defense is stellar and with the fight staying on the feet Burgos knocks out Amirkhani in the 2nd round.
Betting
I heard that Amirkhani is into energy crystals. After the Jared Cannonier disaster in Denmark, the slightest clue someone is into energy crystals pushes me away. I do not bet against crazy. It’s one of the 3 pillars of the fight guy.
- Pass
Johnny Walker (-160) vs. Corey Anderson (+150)
Johnny Walker is 6'6" with an 82" reach. The last time I watched Johnny Walker fight my buddy said, “What the heck is this guy doing?” moments before he landed a knockout flying knee. That kind of sums up Johnny Walker. He will start fights in a karate stance and look for openings to explode with a right high kick. He likes that push kick at distance. He likes to close the distance with the right high kick to find a thai clinch. From the thai clinch he has dangerous knees and elbows. Johnny Walker is an exciting prospect who sensationally knocks everyone out in the 1st round. In his last fight he tried to celebrate by doing “the worm” and, consequently, needed surgery on his shoulder. There are major “?” when it comes to Johnny Walker because all of his UFC fights end quickly. His Contender Series Brazil fight did not show good cardio or wrestling. It’s safe to say this fight will provide answers to those questions.
Corey Anderson is 6' 3" with a 79" reach. He enters the octagon with a metaphorical singlet and tries to win rounds. He struggles to close the distance against longer strikers. Anderson likes to clinch against the fence and take the fight to the ground. While on the ground Anderson does a good job of wrist control. Striking defense is a serious problem for Anderson exemplified in the Manuwa and OSP fights. Any high level striker causes problems for Corey Anderson. I don’t see cardio being an issue in this fight for Anderson. Anderson did an interview addressing Dana White saying he’s turned down 50 fights. Anderson said 49 of those fights were Johnny Walker. I just think that’s an interesting dynamic, fighting a man who you said you don’t want to fight 49 times.
Prediction
Corey Anderson is the wrestler to test Johnny Walker. This is a narrative well known to fight fans, can (insert impressive striker) stop (insert wrestler here) from taking (insert said impressive striker) to the ground. I’m going to make this short and sweet, at some point in this fight Johnny Walker is going to knock Corey Anderson out. I think it will happen in round 1. Anderson was knocked out by Jimi Manuwa and OSP. Johnny Walker has more striking attributes than both of those men. Walker wins by 1st round KO.
Betting
I have heard a lot of buzz surrounding Corey Anderson and his “betting value” in this fight. After watching his tape, I am whelmed by his performances. I’ll tell you what I’m going to do. There is merit to the buzz because Johnny Walker’s wrestling has not been tested. What I am going to do is wait. Let those people bet Anderson and if Johnny Walker’s odds drop to -140 I’ll take Johnny Walker. I am assuming he’s worked on his takedown defense and his shoulder has healed from his disastrous worm incident. I’ve seen pictures of Johnny Walker out in Moscow training, I would imagine he’s worked on his wrestling…They didn’t drop enough, Pass.
- Pass
Gregor Gillespie (-140) vs. Kevin Lee (+130)
Gregor Gillespie is 5'9" with a 71" reach. I have to be honest, I have heard about this guy but I could not remember watching one of his fights. Gillespie comes up in the conversation of who can beat Khabib. Khabib hasn’t tested himself against another high level MMA wrestler and Gillespie’s name comes up in that conversation. Having said that Gillespie will have to do a lot of winning to even be considered for that fight. Gillespie is a 4 time All American wrestler and he fights like it. He’s a little undersized for 155 lbs but his cardio is a strength and his wrestling is very high level. In the past couple weeks Ben Askren and Deron Winn have showed us that you need more than wrestling to win in the UFC. Having said that, Gillespie is suffocating with his body locks and just wears his opponents down in top position until they succumb to a head and arm choke. Gillespie is very good at transitioning from side control to full mount. Gillespie is also very good at keeping full mount or transitioning to back mount. Gillespie gives up size to most of his opponents and his striking is a means to a takedown. I’ve never seen an opponent stop the takedowns but I would imagine Gillespie doesn’t win a kick boxing contest with most fighters. I don’t claim to be an expert on Gregor Gillespie but I haven’t seen him work from his back. I do think it’s fair to say Kevin Lee is a step up in competition for Gillespie.
Kevin Lee is 5'9" with a 75" reach. I’m going to lead with the lead here, “That boy has a lot of quit in him.”-Ron White. Kevin Lee hits a wall in his fights and that’s it, it’s over. I saw him in Rochester quit against RDA, Lee didn’t compete in the 4th and 5th rounds against Crazy Al, and Lee gassed in the Tony fight. The weight cut was a problem for him and he had staff infection but the RDA fight was at 170 lbs. I’m not a big fan of his coach with the long dreads, it seems every time I see him his fighter is unimpressive. Kevin Lee switched camps to Tristar, I’m not sure if that dreads dude is still around or if Tristar will help Kevin Lee. Lee’s biggest strength is his top game and ability to find a body triangle and complete a read naked choke. His biggest weakness is his cardio and I don’t like his striking defense, I feel like I see Kevin Lee get wobbled a lot when he fights. Gillespie is an opponent I can’t imagine anyone wants to fight, this performance will be telling of Kevin Lee’s future in MMA.
Prediction
Alright, I’m going to just think out loud here. The obvious analysis is Gillespie has a wrestling advantage and a huge cardio advantage. Kevin Lee is bigger and size does matter in MMA. If Lee finds top position on Gillespie he’s very good at taking your back and choking you out. I have not seen Gillespie defend on the ground. But the obvious question is, how is Lee going to find top position to work from? One avenue could be the clinch against the fence. The way to beat Khabib is to wrestle with him in the center of the octagon. Clinch wrestling against the cage with punches is not American wrestling, and that’s where Khabib excels. Kevin Lee may have an advantage in the clinch against the fence, and could work to Gillespie’s back. The other favorable narrative for Lee is, “What if Kevin Lee stuffs the takedown and this is a kick boxing match?” There is a time tested adage in MMA, “When you have 2 elite grapplers, it’s a bad kickboxing match.” What happens if this fight is a kickboxing match? We saw Maia and Askren throw hands the other day, Kevin Lee could win a kickboxing match here. There is also the question how does Tristar impact Kevin Lee? I think fight camps matter, are we looking at a better Kevin Lee? I do think Gillespie’s wrestling and cardio are the difference in this fight. Gillespie may even finish the fight in the 3rd round if Lee’s cardio gives way.
Betting
I do not think this fight is as one sided as people think. I have been hearing Gillespie wins this easily. I’m not sure that’s the case. I was flirting with the idea of betting on Kevin Lee because I think he poses a lot of problems that Gillespie hasn’t seen before but I just checked Lee’s Instagram and I hate his haircut. Doesn’t he have friends that tell him, “That haircut makes you look bad.”? Kevin Lee is a subjectively good looking guy, just get a high fade and be done with it. There is zero chance I am going to bet $10 on Lee and root for a guy with that haircut. I am waiting to see the 3rd round Gillespie finish the fight prop. if it’s +1750 I think it’s worth going for, Lee’s cardio isn’t getting better with that weight cut and cardio is Gillespie’s biggest strength. It looks like Lee has staph again. Staph and the dumb haircut, Lee is gassing out and being finished in round 3.
- Gillespie Wins in Round 3 (+1500) $5 to win $75
Blagoy Ivanov (-105) vs. Derrick Lewis (-105)
Blagoy Ivanov is 5'11" with a 73" reach. He’s a Bulgarian who was stabbed in the heart in a bar fight. He woke up out of a coma and returned to fighting…He’s undersized for a heavyweight but he isn’t easily hit when facing a longer opponent. His defensive striking really helps him compete with longer, bigger heavyweights. I believe Ivanov beat Fedor in combat sambo before his “stabbed in the heart” injury sidelined him from fighting, so we know the man can fight. He has a good chin and has power in his left hand. His defensive striking allows fights to go 3 rounds and I believe he gets better when both fighters are facing the adversity of fatigue. Ivanov can win the clinch battle against the fence, he specifically has a very nice headlock throw he can turn into a submission or gain top position. He fights out of the southpaw stance. Ivanov has only lost twice in his career and that was to Alexander Volkov and Junior Dos Santos.
Derrick Lewis is 6'3" with a 79" reach. I’m not 100% sure on this, but it looks like Lewis had surgery on all of the ligaments in one of his knees 6 months ago. Coupled with chronic back injuries I don’t understand how he’s fighting, but he is fighting. I’m not sure how to depict Derek Lewis as a fighter. He likes to pull you into his power right hand, he has the power to finish any fight. He throws a lot of switch high kicks that I think are really effective. I see Lewis hurt a lot but he’s always dangerous throwing that right hand. He has chronic back problems and he’s coming off of major knee surgery. I can’t imagine being laid up in bed is going to help his back. But on the other hand, there’s always something wrong with Lewis when I see him fight, maybe this surgery helps him? I have no idea, I really don’t know how Lewis is fighting right now. His cardio is not great.
Prediction
I have no idea, who knows what Derrick Lewis is going to look like with his back injury and his major knee surgery 6 months ago. There is a size difference in this fight but Ivanov’s defensive striking is good and he is good at closing the distance with a longer fighter. I think this fight boils down to whether or not Lewis can land the KO punch. At this point in time I have to believe Ivanov is the more skilled fighter and very capable of winning a 3 round decision.
Betting
I don’t feel like I know what’s going to happen in this fight enough to recommend a bet on it so I’m passing, too many unknowns with “The Black Beast.”
- Pass
Stephen Thompson (-105) vs. Vicente Luque (-105)
“Wonderboy” Thompson is 6'0" with a 75" reach. Wonderboy has a traditional karate stance. Even after punching his hands return low, which could be one reason Pettis caught him with that superman punch. Thompson is very capable out of the orthodox and southpaw stances, and uses both in excess in a fight. Wonderboy’s side kicks are effectively used as a jab, measuring distance and maintaining his range. He fights exceptionally well moving backwards which is unique, fighting well while moving backwards is a very rare skill. The calf kick is a nuisance for Wonderboy, his leg can be hit with his traditional karate stance. Wonderboy is such a high level point fighter he can frustrate his opponents. Frustrated, and consequently aggressive, opponents more often than not get countered by Wonderboy. Wonderboy’s spinning back kick is a knockout if it catches his opponent with his hands down. Wonderboy isn’t dumb, he’s aware of his opponents threats. He was very hesitant in the Till and Woodley fights. Wonderboy’s takedown defense is solid, but he’s not great off of his back compared to his standup. Wonderboy is 1–3 in his last 4 having been violently knocked out. This is a big fight for him, he loses this retirement might be on the horizon. He wins this, he’s back climbing the ladder for a title fight now that Woodley isn’t the champ.
Vicente Luque is 5'10" with a 76" reach and is one of my favorite fighters. Luque is very good on the ground but seems to just love to kickbox. He has well timed knees that were on display in the Mike Perry fight, I also like his calf kicks. Luque is very aggressive and likes to be in the pocket within range to fire his hands. He’s riding an 8 or 9 fight win streak which is very impressive.
Prediction
Every time I think about this fight I think it’s going to be decided on the feet in a kickboxing match. Wonderboy isn’t Mike Perry, both men will not be bloody in this fight. Luque is very capable of knocking Wonderboy out with a well timed shot a la Anthony Pettis. But I think we are looking at Luque needing that well timed punch as his path to victory. I think Wonderboy gets back on track with this fight. In the 1st round he finds his range and Luque being an aggressive kickboxer just plays into Wonderboy’s strength. I think we are looking at a pretty one sided 30–27 unanimous decision with a possible Wonderboy knockout in the 3rd round. Having said that, Wonderboy was violently knocked out in his last fight, so there are very real questions as how he’s going to come back from that. But, from what I have seen on tape Wonderboy wins this pretty decisively.
Betting
After looking at the odds the first thing that jumped out at me was, “Do not bet Wonderboy wins by decision.” Wonderboy is very capable of knocking Luque out in 15 minutes and if you want to bet Wonderboy just bet him straight up, you’ll feel like an idiot when Wonderboy wins by knockout in the 3rd round having Wonderboy by decision +110 compared to Wonderboy wins -130. Having said that, I can imagine this being a very one sided fight with Wonderboy tuning Luque up on the feet leaving Luque desperate in the 3rd round and being knocked out. It looks like the odds have improved on Wonderboy.
- Wonderboy Wins (-105) $10.50 to win $10
- Wonderboy Wins in round 3 (+2000) $5 to win $100
Kelvin Gastelum (-235) vs. Darren Till (+215)
Darren Till is a low volume striker. Last week people said Salikov was a low volume striker but I thought it was more Salikov was fighting longer guys and needed more time to read his opponent. Darren Till is actually a low volume striker. Till’s game is to hunt you down and find opening for his big left hand, and Till does have power in his left hand. He also has a nice left body kick and he fights long. While being a low volume striker, Till controls the octagon in every fight he’s in because of his power. He’s very capable of being countered and Till does not have a remarkable ground game. His takedown defense isn’t poor but a wrestler would be an interesting matchup for Till. For a long time people talked about Till moving up a weight class from 170 lbs to 185 lbs. This will be his first match at 185 lbs.
Kelvin Gastelum is undersized for the 185 lbs division. This is like when Gilbert Burns fought Gunnar Nelson, Burns was coming up from 155 lbs to 170 lbs but was the bigger fighter. Gastelum had trouble making 170 lbs and the UFC told him to go to 185 lbs and all he did was win so here we are. Gastelum is a southpaw and his right hook left straight is one of those combinations that if it touches you, you’re in trouble. In every fight at 185 lbs it seems Gastelum has a significant reach disadvantage, but in every fight at 185 lbs I see Gastelum conquer that reach disadvantage to land big punches. Gastelum is very light on his feet but can be affect by body kicks. I also think Gastelum can be countered.
Prediction
This is an awesome fight. In one corner you have an undersized Mexican carrying, “the touch of death” in his left hand. Across the octagon will be a big English dude with a big left hand. There is a very real possibility Till’s left hand is the difference in this fight. Gastelum is not a counter striker, he wants to be first. Till was hesitant in the Wonderboy fight because he’s a counter striker but Till also wants to be first. Darren Till recently had a night out that culminated with stealing a taxi. If you show me a man that steals a taxi, I will show you a man that believes in himself. Till isn’t going to counter strike, he’s entering the octagon and planning on walking Gastelum down.
I don’t see This has fight of the night written all over it. Both guys will land in this fight and I don’t feel confident about either fighter winning. Till will have size and reach but Gastelum has an ability to close the distance. Gastelum is very aggressive and Till is very capable of countering with his left hand and ending the fight with one punch. I really like Till’s left body kick to make a difference in this fight. I don’t think Gastelum’s wrestling is the difference, this fight will be decided on the feet. Push comes to shove, I think Gastelum wins a decision by landing more strikes. But I won’t be surprised at all if Till looks like a rejuvenated fighter at 185 lbs and ends the fight with his left hand in the 1st round.
Betting
I think this is a close fight. +170 for Darren Till is too much of an underdog so it’s a good bet. I cannot stop betting Darren Till. I bet him at +150 thinking they were great odds. I bet him at +170 wondering why the odds went up. Then Till missed his plane and arrives a little late and hes a +220 underdog? I got Darren Till winning this fight.
- Darren Till Wins (+150) $10 to win $15
- Darren Till Wins (+170) $10 to win $17
- Darren Till Wins (+220) $10 to win $22
Jorge (Hor-Hay) Masvidal (-155) Nathan Diaz (+145)
Jorge Masvidal starched Darren Till the literal moment my buddy finished his soliloquy about how Till was too big, and Masvidal couldn’t hurt him. I looked at him and said, “He looks pretty hurt to me, Matt.” We all know what Masvidal’s skill set is.
Nathan Diaz brought Nick Diaz out for weigh ins. Must be the first Nick Diaz siting in awhile. Nate is here to fight. Again, we all know Nate Diaz’s skill set.
Prediction/Betting
You don’t predict or bet the inaugural BMF title fight. You get ready to watch a good fight.
