UFC Mexico City
UFC Vancouver Recap
UFC Vancouver Recap
- “Boondock” Connelly’s victory has inspired me to create a new aspect to my blog. Many betting sites have “Lock of the week” or “Mortal Lock”. I am going to have the opposite, “I have been hearing a lot of people betting this fight, don’t bet this fight.” It’s a working title but there is a fight a lot of people think is a lock and I disagree for UFC Mexico. Last week I warned people to not bet on Michel Pereira, I feel like a lot of people got burned.
- Uriah Halls jab is a weapon. A lot of people expected Footface to maul Hall. That jab hurt Footface all night.
- Gaethje’s next fight will be a big one.
- Cowboy needs to take some time off.
- Don’t think Bruce Buffer showing up, looking clean is going to elude me
Yair Rodríguez (+100) vs. Jeremy Stephens (-110)
Oct 3, 2015 Yair Rodriguez vs Dan Hooker
I knew this coming in but Rodriguez is a flashy kicker having a taekwondo background. Joe Rogan has a taekwondo background himself and boy is he excited. Hooker started the fight by circling away from Rodriguez’s power and made sure to stay out of kicking distance. This was probably be design to see what Rodriguez would do with his striking. Hooker caught an inside leg kick and looked to test Rodriguez’s grappling against the fence. Rodriguez’s grappling was of interest to me as well. Rodriguez used a guillotine hold to trip and judo throw Hooker to the ground quickly scrambling to full mount. I like that Rodriguez used the guillotine as a grappling tool instead of trying to choke Hooker. Hooker quickly escaped full mount and nearly took Rodriguez’s back. Losing full mount so quickly, even so close to the fence, is making me question Joe Rogan’s commentary of Rodriguez being a high level, dynamic, jiu jitsu player. Hooker looks to have an advantage with the grappling against the fence, although Rodriguez’s knees from the clinch are a good tool. Yair ended the round with a somersault wizard kick. Rodriguez is making a mistake engaging in these grappling clinches against the fence with Hooker. Rodriguez is truly a gifted kicker that has a passion for the flashing striking. Hooker can’t stand in front of him, if I was in Hooker’s corner I would tell him to engage the clinch and use elbows. It looks like there is a translator in Rodriguez’s corner translating his coach’s advice, I have never seen that before. Hooker pressured Rodriguez and Rodriguez was running away or fighting backwards and was not nearly as effective. Hooker did take the fight to the ground but Rodriguez’s guard game was very good, cutting Hooker with elbows. Rodriguez did not fight well when he was moving backwards to Hookers pressure but I did not see a significant cardio problem for the 22 year old Rodriguez. He kind of reminds me of Edson Barboza, you will need to force Rodriguez to move backwards to have success, those kicks are a problem if he’s standing in front of you.
Apr 23, 2016 Yair Rodriguez vs Andre Fili
Fili is trying to fight in boxing range, Rodriguez wants to fight in kicking range and is using a side kick to the knee for distance management. Rodriguez caught Fili’s kick and took the fight to the ground. He looks to be comfortable landing strikes from top position. Rodriguez’s jiu jitsu does look to be proficient as he turned top position into side control. A well timed takedown from Rodriguez in the 2nd round showed he is not truly comfortable striking in top position, he’d rather be standing. The flying knee knocked out Fili. Rodriguez’s taekwondo background shows that kicking is where he is most comfortable. On the other end of the spectrum, he hasn’t showed high level boxing. He will need to develop better boxing, he can’t rely on sweet wizard kickery to win as he climbs the ranks. Pettis vs. Diaz showed pressure and boxing beats a kicker, I would like to Rodriguez work his boxing against B.J. Penn.
Jan 15, 2017 Yair Rodriguez vs B.J. Penn
B.J came out with the gameplan of trying to grapple with Rodriguez. I’m not sure there is much to learn from this fight that we didn’t already know. Rodriguez did throw a looping power right hand in a 1–2 combination a couple of times. I wanted to see improved boxing against B.J. Rodriguez continued with his kick heavy attack and really hurt B.J. I guess he did catch B.J. with a right hook following a right kick to the body to start the 2nd round with a KO punch. B.J. took a lot of damage in this fight and I’m ready to see Rodriguez vs. Frankie.
May 13, 2017 Frankie Edgar vs Yair Rodriguez
Frankie is a wrestler and one of the best there is at 145 lbs. If you are reading this you probably know how this fight goes, but I am going to try and see how Rodriguez has evolved as a fighter anyways. The first thing I noticed is Frankie is pressuring Rodriguez and he doesn’t like it. When Hooker pressured Rodriguez he was winning the fight, pressure is not the friend of a kick first fighter. It doesn’t look like Rodriguez’s boxing is good enough to get respect from Frankie. I’m not sure I know enough about mma jiu jitsu to break down what happened in this 1st round but I’m going to give it a go. Frankie pressured Rodriguez with his boxing until he clinched. From the clinch Frankie worked to find a high crotch and Rodriguez went for a guillotine, losing his balance and was taken down. Frankie’s top pressure overwhelmed Rodriguez on the ground with strikes. Rodriguez did a good job of threatening triangles and arm bars from the bottom but Frankie has elite top pressure and landed a lot of punches to the face. I do want to make the point, I credit this demonstration more to Frankie’s top pressure rather than blaming Rodriguez’s jiu jitsu. It looks like Frankie is waiting for one of Rodriguez’s kicks to finish to throw a left hand and gain boxing distance. Even compromised, Rodriguez is still dangerous with his kicks. He connected with a wheel kick, but Frankie was okay and immediate shot for a successful double. Rodriguez looks to be good at tying up legs and working submissions from the bottom. He tied up Frankie’s legs and looked for a heel hook before Frankie worked to find a position where he could hit Rodriguez in the face. Once you get punched in the face you usually let go of the submission you’re working on. The fight was stopped due to the damage to Rodriguez’s eye. I’m not sure I take a lot away from this fight, Rodriguez’s guard wasn’t bad, he attacked submissions, he was active, Frankie is just better at the top position.
Nov 10, 2018 Yair Rodriguez vs Chan Sung Jung
I have seen this fight before, one thing that I am looking for in this fight is how Rodriguez boxes and and how he handles a heavy boxing attack. Frankie beat Rodriguez with pressure, it will be interesting to see how the Korean Zombie can pressure Rodriguez with his boxing. This is one of the all time fights in the UFC. I had this theory that Rodriguez strategically took fights in high elevation cities like Denver because he is from Mexico and Mexico City has a high elevation. I looked into it and that theory is wildly unfounded. I do not think Rodriguez will ever have high level boxing, but I did see Rodriguez have an effective jab. I also thought Rodriguez did a good job of staying out of boxing range while staying in kicking range. Rodriguez has very effective leg kicks, his spinning elbows caught the Korean Zombie on multiple occasions, and obviously the inverted elbow ended the fight in dramatic fashion. I was impressed with Rodriguez’s cardio, that was a physically taxing fight in a high elevation city and Rodriguez was firing on all cylinders until the very end. Rodriguez has a gift and a passion for fancy striking techniques, I do think the spinning elbow is the most effective of them all. Rodriguez landed that spinning elbow on multiple occasions with fluidity. There was no setting it up just to throw a fancy kick, it worked within the constraints of a fight. I do think it’s important to point out the difference between this unique strike and Rodriguez’s other elaborate striking. How many times have we seen guys in the UFC hit a “Rolling Thunder” and other elaborate kicking techniques? Not often, we all saw Michel Pereira make a fool of himself on Saturday and he threw all the fancy stuff in the book. But when you have a gift and a passion for these elaborate striking techniques, like Rodriguez does, you train with them and you have an ability to mix them fluidly into your fighting style as a natural reaction. That’s what makes Rodriguez such a dangerous striker, anyone can throw a “Rolling Thunder” with 5 seconds left on the 1st round clock to end a round. Rodriguez throws these strikes you really can’t prepare in situations they can be effective because he trains them so they are natural reactions. “The punches you can’t see are the ones that knock you out.” You can’t prepare for the spinning elbow that bloodied the Korean Zombie’s lip in the 1st round. This is what makes Rodriguez a knockout threat, the unexpected striking. But, it doesn’t matter how good you are at inverted elbows, these strikes need to be supplementary and not fundamental. I would like to see Rodriguez focus on his fundamentals in this fight with Jeremy Stephens.
Apr 15, 2017 Renato Moicano vs Jeremy Stephens
Jeremy Stephen has a ton of fights in the UFC. I don’t think there is much of a point of traveling back 7 years to see him fight Cowboy because fighters evolve so much, that isn’t the same guy that is going to Mexico City. The first fight I want to look at is Renato Moicano. Moicano won the 1st round with leg kicks to Stephens lead leg. Moicano’s movement kept the fight on the outside in kicking range as Stephens unsuccessfully looked to find a home for his powerful right hand. I loved that Stephens started the 2nd round with a well timed change of levels. Even though it was unsuccessful, it gives Moicano something else to think about, could provide an opening for his right hand. Stephens did a good job of listening to his corner, he attacked Moicano’s legs and had more success with his striking. 1–1 heading into the 3rd. Moicano is slowing down and I do think Stephens is feeling tired heading into this deciding 3rd round. Didn’t see anything to question Stephens’ cardio. Close fight, I thought Stephens won, it’s probably going to be one of those fights where Moicano’s benign takedown early in the 3rd is a difference maker on the scorecards. But I think the main takeaway from this fight is Stephens had trouble closing the distance against a fighter that fights long and had a reach advantage. I did think there were a couple of opportunities where Stephens could have unloaded some right hands in the fight against the fence, but Moicano presented a distance problem and Stephens couldn’t get it done.
Jan 14, 2018 Jeremy Stephens vs Dooho Choi
Stephens used his leg kicks to attack Choi’s lead leg. Stephens is at his best when he closes the distance. He threw a violent elbow from the clinch and needs to get inside to utilize the power he has in his right hand. After studying two of his fights, it does look to be a theme of closing distance is the key to the fight. The turning point of this fight is when Choi front kicked Stephens in the face. Choi became aggressive because Stephens was hurt and Stephens reacted to Choi’s aggression with aggression. He literally threw a left kick that knocked himself off of his feet. In that sequence, Stephens caught Choi with a right hand. Stephens became more confident and comfortable getting into the space where he was comfortable throwing his right hand. Stephens hit Choi with a right hand and the fight was over. For me, the take away from this fight is Stephens needs to consistently get into the space where he can throw his right hand or he won’t be successful. The wonderful Mike Perry interview where he talks about his coaches is applicable here. It is dangerous to close the distance and get into the space where Stephens can utilize his right hand, but that is the battle Stephens will have with Rodriguez.
Feb 24, 2018 Jeremy Stephens vs Josh Emmett
Stephens can be hit, especially with counter right hands. In the 1st round of the Emmett fight he was caught with a counter right hand. Stephens was was winning the round and dictating the fight. Stephens wants to finish fights, it’s is what comes natural to him, power punching. I’m honestly a little surprised I haven’t run across a cardio issue with the energy output he uses for each punch. When you are a power puncher, you can be countered, and he was. In the Choi fight he was caught a couple times, but Choi doesn’t carry the same power as Emmett. Stephens looks to have recovered and I would anticipate him winning this fight if he is, in fact, recovered. I didn’t anticipate Stephens illegally kneeing Emmett in the head, but Stephens carries power in both hands and can counter punch himself.
Jul 28, 2018 Jose Aldo vs Jeremy Stephens
I could be wrong but Stephens body doesn’t look as good in this fight compared to the Emmett fight. This was basically a boxing match with a couple kicks mixed in that turned into a brawl. I thought Aldo was more skilled in the boxing category but Stephens carried more power in his hands. Stephens loads his punches up so a skilled fighter can anticipate when that right hand is coming. More faints would do Stephens well so his opponent couldn’t time his right hand. Stephens tripped early in the fight and fell into an Aldo right hand, I thought the fight was going to be over right there. Stephens clipped Aldo but couldn’t finish. In the midst of a brawl, Aldo hit Stephens with a left hook liver shot that ended the fight. I don’t think there is too much to take away from this fight.
Mar 2, 2019 Zabit Magomedsharipov vs Jeremy Stephens
This was a horrible match up for Stephens, Zabit fights long and is a legit title contender at 145 lbs. Stephens couldn’t close the distance enough to connect with his right hand. Another theme I have noticed is Stephens’ corner is always telling him to pressure and throw 4 or 5 punches in a row. Again, cue the Mike Perry interview. I will say Stephens’ body looked better in this fight but the fight went about how everyone expected it to.
Prediction
Neither fighter has a cardio issue that Mexico City’s elevation enhance’s. Both fighters have been training in Mexico City at elevation to acclimatize. At any time in this fight Stephens can end the fight with a right hand. But, Rodriguez fights at kicking distance so it will be a challenge to close the distance. Stephens’ corner is always telling him he needs to pressure with 4 or 5 punches to close the distance. This tells me Stephens has trouble pressuring opponents using his boxing. A fair counter point could be he’s spent time training with Tony Ferguson to work on his footwork. Stephens does telegraph his right hand, can Rodriguez tell when the right is coming? The path to victory for Stephens is to pressure Rodriguez with his boxing, especially because Rodriguez doesn’t have the boxing to counter. There is a reasonable argument kickers need space and can’t fight going backwards. I haven’t seen overwhelming pressure from Stephens on tape so I can’t really rely on it. Will his training with Tony Ferguson help his footwork? If you can answer that question you have found a good bet for this fight. The key to this fight is Yair Rodriguez likes to fight at kicking distance and Jeremy Stephens will have a hard time closing the distance to land his right hand. I like Stephens to catch Rodriguez and end the fight with a right hand in the 2nd round.
Betting
There’s too many questions, if Stephens shows up the same fighter, I think he loses. If Stephens’ training with Tony Ferguson helps him pressure Rodriguez I think he wins. It’s not worth it to me, I’ll pass on this fight.
- Pass
Carla Esparza (+115) vs Alexa Grasso (-125)
May 19, 2018 Tatiana Suarez vs Alexa Grasso
Suarez mauled her. Nothing to learn her.
Sep 8, 2018 Tatiana Suarez vs Carla Esparza
Suarez mauled her too.
Jun 8, 2019 Alexa Grasso vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz
This might be Karolina’s last fight. I remember watching this thinking she’s not the same girl that gave Joanna Jedrzejczyk a run for her money. I think Karolina said she wants to be a mother which is awesome. Grasso out struck Karolina all fight.
Apr 27, 2019 Carla Esparza vs Virna Jandiroba
I remember this Jandiroba girl from Invicta when I was researching Mizuki Inoue for UFC Shenzhen. I was impressed with Esparza finding top position so often in this fight because Jandiroba is a physical presence and has a belt belt in jiu jitsu.
Prediction
Esparza’s wrestling advantage wins her a decision in this fight.
Betting
This is a close fight I don’t want to bet on it.
- Pass
Askar Askarov (-155) vs. Brandon Moreno (+145)
Aug 5, 2017 Sergio Pettis vs Brandon Moreno
This fight took place in Mexico City. Moreno caught a kick and took the fight to the ground. Jiu jitsu looks to be Moreno’s strength. Sergio spent the rest of the round fighting off the choke. Moreno’s striking is poor. He’s trying to catch kicks and take the fight to the ground. That wheel kick and a low leg kick are the only kicks Sergio needs to throw here, the only success Moreno is having is catching kicks. Moreno cannot strike or wrestle.
May 19, 2018 Alexandre Pantoja vs Brandon Moreno
It doesn’t look like Moreno learned how to punch or wrestle. I give him credit for being tough.
May 5, 2018 Askar Askarov vs Rasul Albaskhanov
Hmm, Askar spent the 1st round on his back. I didn’t expect to see that. Askar threatened submissions off of his back, found his way to his feet and choked Rasul.
Apr 22, 2017 Askar Askarov vs Anthony Leone
Askar is again put on his back to begin round 1. He recovered and showed good striking and a ground game.
Prediction
I am a little more reserved after looking into this fight again. But that is only because I was looking for Askar to be more dominant. Moreno is a dork and doesn’t have an advantage in this fight in any attribute. Unless Askar has some sort of weird reaction to the elevation he wins this fight. I can see him locking in a submission in the 3rd round.
Betting
- Askar to win (-160) $50 to win $30
Irene Aldana (-570) vs Vanessa Melo (+480)
I don’t plan on betting this one. Well, Things changed. Melo looked awful at weigh ins.
Betting
- Aldana Wins by KO (+365) $25 to win $91
Martin Bravo (-105) vs Steven Peterson (-105)
Mar 23, 2019 Luis Pena vs Steven Peterson
Peterson lost the 1st round but Pena missed weight and it wouldn’t surprise me to see Peterson win the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Looks like Peterson likes to work from the clinch, has a decent ground game. Peterson looks capable on the ground and has a very good chin. Pena was a tough fight though.
Jul 20, 2019 Alex Caceres vs Steven Peterson
Bruce looks good in a black and white tux. Did I hear Jon Anik say 21 UFC fights for Alex Caceres?! Wow apparently that’s true, that’s a lot of fights, watch out Cowboy. I’m noticing a theme of Peterson not faring well at boxing range. Peterson kind of walks forward and engages in the boxing so he can clinch. He has a good chin and seems reasonably successful when the fight goes to the ground. Caceres tells his corner, “He broke his left hand.” The cornermen thinks for a second and says, “You’re right hook is working good.” I appreciate stuff like that. I think I remember this fight and Caceres breaking his hand was actually a blessing in disguise because it forced him to stay at distance and jab. Peterson doesn’t like to fight at distance.
Nov 5, 2016 Martin Bravo vs Claudio Puelles
Bravo walks Puelles down in this fight and wants to use his boxing. He is a cardio guy. He successfully fought Puelles off of his back and is a jiu jitsu blue belt. His cardio won him this fight as he stopped Puelles.
Aug 5, 2017 Humberto Bandenay vs Martin Bravo
This fight took place at 145 lbs Bravo’s natural weight class. I do not think Bandenay is very good but let's see how this goes. Well, he caught Bravo with a knee and that was that.
Jul 6, 2018 Alex Caceres vs Martin Bravo
Bravo’s strength is his boxing and pressure and it wasn’t good enough to beat Caceres. I don’t think his jiu jitsu is very good.
Prediction
I like Peterson in this fight. I don’t think Bravo has the power to keep Peterson off of him and I think Peterson initiates the clinch and closes the distance enough to take the fight to the ground. I believe Peterson has the advantage on the ground. I like Bravo’s cardio especially having trained in Mexico City so I don’t think Peterson gets the finish but he wins by decision. My only caveat to this fight is Bravo has been training in Mexico City at elevation, Peterson took the Company plane ticket and arrived a week prior.
Betting
I like Peterson in this fight, I don’t like Bravo has been training at elevation and Peterson has been in Texas. No reason to force a bet. Peterson Also looked bad at weigh ins.
- Pass
Jose Quinones (-135) vs. Carlos Huachin (+125)
May 11, 2019 Raoni Barcelos vs Carlos Huachin
Huachin is an impressive southpaw boxer, but there is a difference in their ground games. Unfortunately, the fight went to the ground. In the 2nd round Barcelos caught Huachin with a right hand that sat him on his butt and Barcelos found full mount. But Huachin never stopped working and improved his position even though I know there is a difference in their jiu jitsu games. The ref shouldn’t have stopped that fight, Huachin was about to be saved by the bell and knock that Brazilian out and cash his +700 underdog ticket. I love this Huachin kid. I can’t wait to see him fight.
Feb 11, 2018 Jose Quinonez vs Teruto Ishihara
There is a wrestling/grappling component to Quinonez’s game. I don’t think it's very high level but it is there. Ishihara is a southpaw and caught Quinonez at the end of the 1st round. Could be foreshadowing. Quinonez isn’t trying to grapple in the 2nd round and he looks to be fatiguing. There is that left hand behind the ear again at the end of the 2nd round. This fight has a lot of similarities for the fight to come in Mexico City. My boy Huachin is a much better boxer than Ishihara.
Mar 16, 2019 Nathaniel Wood vs Jose Quinonez
Quinonez came out grappling in the 1st round. The guy has jiu jitsu tattoo’d on his chest but he just got swept from side control by Nathaniel Wood. This wood kid is starting to hit Quinonez with his boxing. Quinonez is fading. Yup 2nd round rear naked finish.
Prediction
Quinonez is going to try an implement his grappling in the 1st round. This will allow the fight to exit the 1st round. In the 2nd round fatigue will set in for Quinonez and my boy Huachin is going to use his boxing ability to knock him out.
Betting
Feel pretty strongly Huachin’s boxing is the difference in this fight. There is a good chance this fight ends by knockout in the 2nd round.
- Huachin Wins (+120) $15 to win $18
- Huachin Wins by Knockout (+420) $10 to win $42
- Huachin Wins in Round 2 (+800) $10 to win $80
Kyle Nelson (-122) vs Polo Reyes (+112)
Nov 5, 2016 Marco Polo Reyes vs Jason Novelli
This fight took place in Mexico City. Reyes is a skilled puncher, he wants to land with his right hand. I thought his takedown defense was impressive in this fight. Novelli was making his octagon debut and he looked a little green, close fight.
Jan 14, 2018 Polo Reyes vs Matt Frevola
In this fight we saw Reyes fight going backwards. Against Novelli, Reyes controlled the octagon and tried finding the distance for his right hand. Here, Reyes countered a very aggressive fighter and his right hand does have power.
Feb 23, 2019 Damir Hadzovic vs Polo Reyes
Hadzovic looks a lot bigger in this fight. Reyes was taken down at the end of the 1st round and labored in the middle of the octagon before returning to his corner. He was finished on the ground shortly into the 3rd, something seemed off about him.
Jun 29, 2019 Drew Dober vs Marco Polo Reyes
Dober and Reyes met in the center and had a boxing match with 4 ounce gloves and Dober connected more. Another bad knockout for Reyes, I hate to see that.
Dec 8, 2018 Carlos Diego Ferreira vs Kyle Nelson
Nelson wants to strike, and caught Ferreira early in the 1st round. The problem for Nelson is Ferreira recovered and took the fight to the ground. Ferreira is wizard level jiu jitsu and ended the fight.
May 4, 2019 Kyle Nelson vs. Matt Sayles
Nelson is a kick boxer that wildly throws punches and mixes in some kicks. Something happened where Nelson tripped and fell into the corner and Sayles took advantage by finding top position and delivering about 30 hammer fists. The ref could have stopped the fight. Nelson just barely survived the round. His corner mentioned the other guy had a hard cut too. When ever someone in the corner says, “You’re not tired” the fighter usually had a hard time with cardio. Its basic reverse psychology. Nelson moved down to 145 lbs from 155 lbs for this fight and it doesn’t look to be working for him. He’s exhausted. Reyes is actually making the move to 145 lbs for the first time for their fight in Mexico City. But Nelson looks exhausted. Nelson’s striking has deteriorated in the 2nd round, Sayles is easily ducking punches. Nelson was completely gassed in the 3rd round and was head and arm choked out.
Prediction
Nelson has a kick boxing background, Reyes has said they don’t have wrestlers in Mexico, this fight takes place on the feet. The elephant in the room is both of these fighters have decided to drop down to 145 lbs from 155 lbs where I thought Nelson looked pretty big against Diego Ferreira. Nelson at 145 lbs looks awful, he can’t fight at 145 lbs, he is going to lose. There is a chance Nelson catches Reyes with a right hand in the 1st round but this guy just doesn’t look good. Reyes is also making the venture to 145 lbs and that is a big cut for him too where there is a lot of unknown. Unknown is better than definitively bad. But, Reyes got popped for steroids and he’s probably not on steroids anymore. The fight is in Reyes’ hometown, he’s accumulated to the elevation, Nelson is flying in only a week early. I don’t like to swear but Mindfucked is the only word that applies to how I feel about this fight. Nelson has a good chance to knock Reyes out in the 1st round and Reyes could knock Nelson out in the 1st round. I do expect Nelson to gas out after 1 round even though it looks like this camp/weight is looking better than last camp. I can’t make something up I am generally confused and have no idea what is going to happen in this fight.
Betting
There are significant problems betting Reyes in this fight. He has never fought at 145 lbs before in his life, how will the weight cut affect him? He has had 2 violent knockouts in his 2 previous fights prompting him to fight at 145 lbs, how is his chin? It would be wise to observe the weight cut before making plays on this fight as the weight cut is a very important part of this fight for both fighters. I will update this blog at the time of the weight cut or feel free to message me if you want to talk fighting. But I love this fight and have like 5 bets I want to make on it depending on weigh ins.
- Parlay Inside The Distance (+1210)
Angela Hill (-140) vs Ariane Carnelossi (+130)
May 24, 2019 Ariane Carnelossi vs. Ketlen Souza
Carnelossi is a very muscled fighter with capable and powerful boxing. She looks to be slowing down at the end of the 1st round which doesn’t surprise me based on his build. Basically we are looking at a heavily muscled boxer who has power but slows down as the fight wears on. Mexico City’s elevation will not be her friend. She is heavily muscled to make 115 lbs but we will find out soon enough.
Apr 27, 2019 Angela Hill vs Jodie Esquibel
Esquibel came out with crashing punches and Hill moved and jabbed, she handled it well. I think we will see that dynamic in the Carnelossi fight. I don’t think Esquibel carries the same threat that Carnelossi will but the technique is there for Hill. Hill looks to rely on her counter boxing and movement. Dominick Cruz was commentating this fight and is teammates with Angela Hill. Cruz was asked about Hill and he made the statement, “Many fighters have the talent to be world champions, but what is hard is showing up to the gym over and over again.” I don’t think there is anything to takeaway from that, I thought there would be, because Hill has been in Mexico with Jeremy Stephens preparing for about a month. Hill fights a lot going backwards, that’s a very taxing style of movement. Again, we have another comment from Cruz about, “Hill’s headspace” he’s not painting his teammate with a positive brush. Very nice performance from Hill throughout all 3 rounds. I should also mention that unfortunately Esquibel has not had a victory in the UFC and this was not high competition for Hill.
Jun 8, 2019 Xiaonan Yan vs Angela Hill
Hill doesn’t look to have much of a top game. Inversely, her bottom game looks dangerous, putting Yan in a triangle and needing the bell to save her. Hill put her hands on top of the octagon, when a fighter does that there is a good indication they have a cardio problem if the fight hasn’t ended. Hill is a very capable striker, this was a very close fight.
Prediction
I am predicting 2 fatigued women fighting a 3 round fight in Mexico City. Carnelossi slowed down in her most recent fight and has the body of a sprinter, not a marathon runner. Hill has shown cardio issues in her fights but I do think has the better striking technique. I don’t see either women taking this fight to the ground, unless Hill’s camp decides in the 2nd round it is a good idea to take this women down to make her tired while giving Hill a rest of sorts. Hill has spent at least a month out in Mexico City getting accumulated to the elevation with Jeremy Stephens, it looks like she is doing the right things, and I have seen enough to say she will get a 3rd round stoppage in this fight. I don’t like how much she fights backwards and counters because Carnelossi will pressure her in the 1st round, but I do think Hill’s striking is light years ahead of Carnelossi’s to compensate.
Betting
I try to do my research without looking at the odds. This time I succeeded in doing so. I thought Hill would be more of a favorite than she is. I don’t want to bet on either fighter, this could end in a very sloppy 3rd round. Carnelossi is on Instagram videoing herself on weight the night prior to the weigh ins. Not an unreasonable thing to do. But she’s legitimately topless with her team standing around, about 10 dudes and she's just topless. Just a weird thing to do. Angela Hill showed up to Mexico City and has been training for 3–4 weeks. Dominick Cruz made comments about her not doing the right things, needing to train consistently etc. Well, she has shown up and she has done the right things. I am going to do something dumb, I am going to bet on Angela Hill’s cardio. Yea, I am going to bet a 3rd round finish of Carnelossi. Carnelossi is way too jacked to last 3 rounds in Mexico City, I don’t think she showed up early to climatize herself and maybe Hill’s striking is overwhelming. Maybe Hill can finish a lifeless jacked female body in the 3rd round in Mexico City, goodbye $5.
- Hill Wins in Round 3 (+2025) $5 to win $101.25
Sergio Pettis (-320) vs. Tyson Nam (+290)
Jun 9, 2018 Sergio Pettis vs Joseph Benavidez
I guess this shouldn’t surprise me but Pettis is a fantastic striker and rocked Benavidez with a counter right hand. Pettis found himself in bottom position under a probably concussed Benavidez and worked his way to the feet. We know Benavidez has a high level ground game so that is encouraging. 1–0 Pettis. Pettis looks amazing. His takedown defense is incredible. At one point his coach is screaming, “Where is your C-Grip?” and Pettis picks up Benavidez’s hand and shows it to his coach. 2–0 Pettis. Fantastic performance from Pettis, slowed down a little bit at the end but you try fighting Benavidez for 3 round. Fantastic performance, checked all the boxes.
Oct 6, 2018 Jussier Formiga vs Sergio Pettis
Pettis is breathing a little heavier in this 1st round. He went with the body triangle when Formiga took him down which tells me he’s afraid of Formiga’s ground game, doesn’t want him to pass to side control. Not a good start, 0–1. It was really nice to see Pettis’ takedown defense is still there in the 2nd round, stuffing Formiga on his first shot. Damn, Formiga took him down off of a single and ended the round on top. Pettis tried, he came out in the 3rd and tried to knock out Formiga. Formiga is a high level grappler and took his back because Pettis was taking some chances. Tough loss for Pettis.
Dec 15, 2018 Rob Font vs Sergio Pettis
Right off the bat you can tell 135 lbs isn’t Sergio’s division, he’s too small. Font is fighting behind his jab and he has a reach advantage. At the end of the 2nd round Sergio landed a takedown. In his corner his coach is screaming, “trust that wrestling.” I don’t think it’s going to win him the fight but Sergio has worked on his wrestling.
Apr 27, 2019 Tyson Nam vs. Donald Gonzalez
Gonzalez has horrible takedown defense, and Nam doesn’t have to ground game to take advantage of top position. Nam looks like he wants to stand and trade right hands with you. Not an overly impressive performance.
Jul 3, 2019 Tyson Nam vs. Shojin Miki
Tyson got rocked in the 1st round against this Shojin Miki dude. Tyson wants to stand a box with you, I don’t think his hands translate to the UFC though.
Prediction
This looks like a mismatch, I feel like Pettis wins this each time, every time. Pettis has been fighting the worlds best, Nash has been fighting in Hawaiian cafeterias. This is a great opportunity for Pettis to work on his ground game. Pettis has been making dramatic strides with his takedown defense, I want to see Pettis show his offensive wrestling against Tyson Nam. Pettis wins by a decision here, showing off his new wrestling ability.
Betting
It’s not my style to bet on such a favorite but Pettis will win a very high percentage of the time fighting Tyson Nam. He is probably a good parlay piece if you guys do that. I have seen Pettis fight 5 rounds in Mexico City before. I am not worried about his cardio as a matter of fact I am worried about Nam’s cardio. When you google Nam’s name what will come up are interviews about how he should have been in the UFC earlier and how he knocked out this former title contender at Bellator and he beat this other guy. Well, I scored 3 goals in one game playing high school hockey against Skaneateles one time, and now I can barely run up the hill next to my house for exercise. If you were good enough to be in the UFC the UFC would have figured out a way to get you here. Pettis is fighting Benavidez and Formiga, Nam’s last fight took place in a high school cafeteria. Nam has a right hand but Pettis will show his wrestling in this fight. I actually like a 3rd round finish prop for Pettis in this fight. Nam could gas in Mexico City enough for Pettis to choke this dude out.
- Pettis Wins in Round 3 (+2200) $5 to win $110
Vinicius Moreira (-120) vs. Paul Craig (+110)
Aug 11, 2018 Vinicius Moreira vs John Allan
Awful night for John Allan, had his arm in an armbar hyper extended and refused to tap, Moreira got tired cracking his arm and submitted him moments later with a triangle. What we learned from this Contender Series Brazil fight is Moreira has a ground game. We also learned that his striking is not good.
Jan 19, 2019 Alonzo Menifield vs Vinicius Moreira
Moreira could not take the fight to the ground and Menifield is an explosive puncher and Moreira got caught. I actually thought Moreira had some success surviving the onslaught and grappling against the fence working for a takedown. I wanted to see how that fight played out because Menifield looked to be slowing down. But Moireira doesn’t have good defensive striking and got caught.
Jun 29, 2019 Eryk Anders vs Vinicius Moreira
Same story, Moreira grappled with Anders against the cage and couldn’t get the fight to the ground. Moreira’s chin couldn’t handle Anders’ power and the fight is over. This is the 2nd violent knockout Moreira has taken in as many fights.
Mar 17, 2018 Paul Craig vs Magomed Ankalaev
Paul Craig was beaten everywhere here. He didn’t have an advantage on the ground, which is his best attribute, and he had a hard time on the feet. I did like his spinning back kick, but it wasn’t enough. I bailed from this fight about 20 seconds before it was over. Woof.
Dec 2, 2018 Jimmy Crute vs Paul Craig
Jimmy Crute chose to spend a lot of time on the ground in this fight, which I didn’t expect. I expected Crute to want to strike with Craig. And I think that was his game plan but he was taken down in the 1st round and he must’ve liked the way Craig felt on the ground so he took the fight there. Craig was submitted late in the 3rd round with a Kimura, but I do think Craig was compromised heading into that 3rd round and I also think Crute has a legit ground game. Was hoping to get a look at Craig’s striking a little bit but unfortunately for me, this fight took place mostly on the ground.
Mar 30, 2019 Paul Craig vs Kennedy Nzechukwu
I was hoping to get more of a look at Craig’s striking but this fight was mostly Craig diving at Nzechukwu’s legs because he had a severe jiu jitsu advantage.
Jun 29, 2019 Alonzo Menifield vs Paul Craig
Menifield has power and all he needs to do is touch you. Unfortunately, Craig went out in the 1st round. This is a mutual opponent and I wanted to see how Craig handled Menifield’s striking, unfortunately, not well.
Prediction
This is a strength on strength match up. Islam Makhachev vs. Davi Ramos was a strength on strength matchup that turned into a bad kickboxing match. With these 2 grapplers I don’t think that applies. From watching tape on these guys I feel like Craig shoots a decent double leg takedown and I haven’t really seen Moreira attempt a double leg. Craig does pull guard a lot but I don’t hate the strategy of pulling guard against Menifield and Nzechukwu but pulling guard against Moreira isn’t a good idea. Craig’s striking has evolved past Moreira’s which makes sense because they are basically the same fighter but Craig has spent more time in the UFC.
Betting
I was trying to find an angle here that made sense. I thought KO prop because both of these fighters have been violently KO’d in recent fights. I thought Craig because of UFC experience. I thought Craig by decision because of 3 double legs I’ve seen him shoot. Maybe Moreira gets top position and Craig accepts bottom and he wins by decision and I have come to the conclusion there isn’t a good bet here.
- Pass
Sijara Eubanks (-265) vs. Bethe Correia (+245)
Mar 11, 2017 Marion Reneau vs Bethe Correia
Bethe isn’t a fluid striker, it’s almost like she is too muscular to have power behind her strikes, she seems to be thinking about how to correctly throw a punch before she throws it. She also didn’t have success grappling Reneau against the fence. I figured a women with her build may have more success grappling compared to striking but so far I am incorrect. She did land a takedown at the end of the round by finding a body lock. With the way takedowns are tiebreakers in rounds, I guess she won round 1. Heyo, Bethe feeling herself in the 2nd round. The arena is 95 degrees and Reneau looks to be slowing down. Bethe took advantage and connected with punches early in the 2nd. I do think she fatigued herself as the round wore on, but I did not see that coming, nice boxing from Bethe. Reneau pulled guard to see if she could work anything with her jiu jitsu and almost locked in a triangle. I didn’t hate pulling guard here, she wasn’t having success on the feet, she does have the jiu jitsu advantage. Fatigue will be a factor for both of these ladies in the 3rd round in a very hot building. Wonderfully timed front kick from Reneau that rocked Correia to begin the 3rd round. You could see how Correia was rhythmically rocking back and forth and how Reneau beautifully timed it. Reneau took advantage and really hurt Bethe in a 10–8 round. This fight could be a draw. Tough match up with Holly Holm next, I have a feeling she is going to get knocked out and I am not going to enjoy seeing it.
June 17, 2017 Holly Holm vs Bethe Correia
1st round consisted of Holly Holm taking inventory, Bethe looking to counter, nothing exciting. After 2 and a half rounds of stagnation, Holly finally caught Bethe with a violent question mark kick.
May 11, 2019 Irene Aldana vs Bethe Correia
I’ll tell ya what, Bruce walking out in that suit, speaking Spanish, got me excited to watch this fight. I am not longer excited, bring Bruce back. Aldana is keeping her distance with a 1–2 combination and Bethe isn’t crashing forward enough to close the distance. She might be in trouble. I’m not giving Bethe enough credit I guess, she is timing Aldana’s 1–2 combination with counter right hands having much success. 1–1 heading into the 3rd. An armbar from a scramble is not how I saw that fight ending. Bethe lost but this is the most impressive fight I have seen her fight. She showed what defines her as a fighter, and it’s imposing her physicality and connecting with a big right hand. She showed fight intelligence in the 2nd round by beginning to time the 1–2 with a powerful right hand. I thought she was winning that fight, unfortunate break with that armbar.
Nov 3, 2018 Sijara Eubanks vs Roxanne Modafferi
This fight took place at 125 lbs. Eubanks missed weight. We are looking at 2 different levels of athlete. Eubanks looks to have crisp striking and high level jiu jitsu. I thought Eubanks could have done a better job trying to pass to side control, she seemed content trying to posture up and unsuccessfully rain punches down on Modafferi. Eubanks looks exhausted starting this 2nd round. Have to think her troubles on the scale are having an effect. She rocked Modafferi to begin the 2nd round but the story here is the level of exhaustion with Eubanks. Eubanks can’t compete in this weight class anymore if this is how she is going to perform, even in victory. In her post fight speech she told the crowd to stop boo’ing if you haven’t cut 20 lbs before. She also basically blamed her period for missing weight. She can’t cut that much weight anymore, she can’t perform well.
May 18, 2019 Aspen Ladd vs Sijara Eubanks
I saw this fight live in Blue Cross Arena. This fight and her fight with Bethe Correia in Mexico City take place at 135 lbs. I am specifically interested to see how her cardio holds up at this next weight class. Sijara is feeling herself in this 1st round. She has way more energy and she’s trying to muscle Ladd to the floor with large explosive slam attempts. Sijara is a black belt on the ground and will have the advantage over Bethe if the fight goes there, but not over Ladd. There was a lot of energy spent from both ladies in that 1st round, lets see how their cardio holds up. The 2nd round consisted of Ladd wrestling Sijara to the ground and having her way with her, finding mount, choking her, neck cranking and finished the round with violent strikes from top position. I think we are seeing that there is a reason why Eubanks was trying to kill herself to make 125 lbs, she is fighting the bigger women here and size matters a lot in mma. In the 1st round Eubanks was the more dangerous striker on the feet, in the 3rd round Ladd was the more dangerous striker on the feet because Ladd has the better cardio.
Prediction
Eubanks is the more skilled striker, she is more skilled on the ground, and it is very possible she takes Bethe to the ground in the 1st round. Bethe is the larger women and has better cardio. It looks like Eubanks has been training in Mexico City to get accumulated to the elevation earlier compared to Bethe judging by their Instagrams. I don’t hate to see that thinking about Eubanks cardio. I like Eubanks to win a 29–28 decision in Mexico City
Betting
I don’t want to lay -255 on a favorite with cardio issues fighting in Mexico City. On the other hand I think Eubanks has a substantial advantage on the ground. Bethe is the bigger fighter and has better cardio, i’d like to see her implement some grappling and make Eubanks tired, but I don’t want to bet on it.
- Pass
Claudio Puelles (-300) vs Marcos Mariano (+270)
Nov 5, 2016 Martin Bravo vs Claudio Puelles
This looks to be a culmination of an Ultimate Fighter show. One thing I did find interesting is Puelles cut a decent amount of weight throughout the show for each fight, he fought 3 times. That must have been miserable and I cannot imagine he’s putting on his best performance tonight but we shall see. Bravo was said to be a natural 145 lbs fighter that didn’t cut weight for the show. That is a significant piece of information heading into this fight. Puelles doesn’t look to have a definitive skill that defines him as a fighter. He also doesn’t have one area where hes completely deficient. He does look to be fading and being broken by Mariano’s pressure. Puelles was breathing heavy in the 2nd round and lost with back to back left hook liver shots. Why was he tired? This fight coincidentally took place in Mexico City, did the elevation affect him? Was his body fatigued from cutting weight for 3 fights back to back to back a factor? The kid is also 20 years old. Questions aside, he fatigued early in the 2nd round and was put away. I didn’t see any defining skills, but also not a glaring weakness.
May 19, 2018 Claudio Puelles vs Felipe Silva
It’s again hard for me to really see what defines Puelles as a fighter. He took Silva down early in the 1st round but looked wildly uncomfortable in top position. His most threatening action was standing, holding Silva’s legs and punching downwards towards Silva’s head. Puelles looks 10 times more comfortable pulling guard, he threatened a heel hook in the 1st round that was a serious threat and pulled guard a couple more times in the round. I have seen Silva get knocked out in the 1st round against Mairbek Taisumov but I didn’t think his striking was poor. It could be a fighter specific strategy to pull guard and not stand with Silva because his striking is good? It doesn’t look to be an effective strategy. I can’t tell if Puelles is fatigued or concussed heading into the 3rd round but his track record points to fatigued. Silva has a remarkable advantage standing up with his boxing and Puelles is most likely fatigued and concussed heading into this 3rd round. Unbelievably Puelles spent the 3rd round tittering on the edge of having the fight stopped only to conclude it with a miracle knee bar from guard. Unbelievable finish but Puelles’ flaws are evident, cardio doesn’t look good, he’s also not really good at anything except pulling guard and working leg locks.
Feb 10, 2019 Lando Vannata vs Marcos Rosa Mariano
Mariano is a kick boxer with abnormally long limbs and skinny legs. He cannot wrestle and does not know jiu jitsu from his back. Lando knows how to wrestle and knows jiu jitsu from the top. Lando took the fight to the ground with his wrestling and dominated Mariano on the ground and found the stoppage by kimura.
Prediction
I do not believe Puelles is very good on the ground but based on what I have seen he has a substantial strength/weakness relationship with Mariano with wrestling/jiu jitsu that cannot be ignored. Claudio Puelles wins this fight by submission in the 2nd round by submission.
Betting
I have looked around at what the MMA Betting community thinks about this fight and I am not surprised but I disagree with the sentiment. There is a substantial jiu jitsu and wrestling strength weakness relationship in this fight, that is true. But betting Puelles at -255 being a no brainier is not a wise decision. Puelles does not have good cardio and this fight is at elevation. Puelles was dominated by Silva’s striking in his last fight, Mariano is a kick boxer that has the length in his arms to touch Puelles when Puelles can’t touch back. There is a jiu jitsu skill difference, sure. But from what I have seen is Puelles is most comfortable pulling guard and working varies different leg locks, is that what we are banking on in this fight to lay -255? Puelles pulling guard and locking up one of Mariano’s chicken legs? Remember when Puelles’ top game in the 1st round against Silva? Yea, nothing about that says I want to lay -255 to bet on a top game submission victory. Mariano has had 6–7 months off and does know Anderson Silva, who is to say he doesn’t get better off of his back? If Mariano worked on his wrestling game at all, and this fight stays on the feet, Puelles might be in trouble, especially in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. I hope that’s not the case for the guy on Sherdog, “9 units on Puelles, easiest money I've ever made.” If this thing gets out of control I might make a bet on this Mariano dude.
- Pass
