UFC Moscow
UFC Madison Square Garden Recap
- Nate Diaz always has something to say
“I brought the President”-Nate Diaz
“Fuck The Rock too, I see him smiling over here with Masvidal. They should’ve had Mike Tyson over here handing out that shit.”-Nate Diaz
“Fuck you, with all due respect.”-Nate Diaz
“You got to kill me, didn’t get killed.”-Nate Diaz
“You only lose, when you lose, and I didn’t lose.”-Nate Diaz
“I hate when people be holding babies and shit. Them Babies don’t need to be watching no fight.”-Nate Diaz
- Tony Ferguson is Joaquin Phoenix, Johnny Walker is Jared Leto.
- A lot of people lost money on Gregor Gillespie. Kevin Lee looked really good. He seems to have recurring staph infection. I want to see a healthy Kevin Lee that has been training at Tristar show up to his next weigh in. But for Pete’s sake, Lee needs to cut his hair. Kevin Lee is an objectively, subjectively good looking guy, go get a high fade.
- What is next for Edmen Shahbazyan? Brad Tavares was a big test for him, and he passed. In the post fight interview he said he wants a top 10 opponent so let’s look at the possibilities…I don’t hate a Kelvin Gastelum fight. Derek Brunson or Jack Hermansson would both be strong tests for the Armenian.
- What’s next for Masvidal? I think the most likely scenario is the winner of Kamaru vs. Colby. There is talk of a Conor fight and Leon Edwards is out there but Masvidal should get a title shot next.
- Wonderboy is back. Santiago Ponzinibbio makes sense for Wonderboy next. If Wonderboy wins, he should get the winner of the rumored Woodley vs. Edwards fight as long as Woodley doesn’t win.
- Corey Anderson surprised a lot of people by knocking out Johnny Walker in the 1st round. I feel like a number 1 contender fight with Dominick Reyes should be next for him.
- The President of the United States, Donald Trump sat ringside for a UFC event. It doesn’t matter if you voted for him or not, that is a very big deal as an MMA fan.
Grigorii Popov (-155) Davey Grant (+145)
Davey Grant is 5'8" with a 69" reach, he fights out of SBG Manchester. I like his standup. He has power in his hands, he’s active with his kicks. Grant’s wrestling and jiu jitsu need improving. He was caught in an armbar from top position in the 3rd round by Damian Stasia. I thought he was winning that fight. Manny Bermudez caught him with a right hand early in the 1st round which caused the fight to be over. The Bermudez fight had to be rescheduled because of Grant having Staph infection. We saw this past weekend, Kevin Lee repeatedly shows up to fights with staph infection. It’s a virus that lays dormant and can return. Just something to keep an eye on. Grant has not fought recently so there isn’t much tape to look at. In hockey, a kid who’s always playing hockey, hanging out at the rink and always playing is called a “rink rat” Grant seems to be a “gym rat” his Instagram is filled with SBG Manchester content, which is what you would want to see from a fighter.
Grigorii Popov is 5’7 with a 68” reach, he fights out of Tiger Muay Thai. Popov is kind of Asian looking, I would imagine he’s from eastern Russia where there are Asian looking Russians. So don’t be surprised when an Asian looking guy comes out of the tunnel. Popov is a Muay Thai fighter with some nice judo throws. He once stopped an opponent from kicking his opponent’s legs standing over his opponent’s guard. I don’t think that will apply to this fight, but it’s a unique fight fact. Popov likes to use kicks to keep distance and he has a really nice left body kick. He switches stances but he’s predominantly a southpaw fighter. His UFC debut a couple months ago showed he can be hit. I seen his jiu jitsu skills but I believe he choked someone out from a position I think is called “Mission Control.” Anyways, his wrestling isn’t great but it doesn’t matter this fight is going to take place on the feet.
Prediction
I am not a subscriber to, “UFC fighters don’t perform well in their UFC debuts.” If you can fight, you can fight. Popov was knocked out in his UFC debut but he can fight. I think this fight goes very similar to Popov’s UFC debut. He will find his distance with teep kicks and once he finds his range he will start to land on Grant. Davey Grant’s path to victory is connecting with a big right hand and either winning by stoppage or hurting Popov and winning the subsequent rounds after gaining Popov’s respect. But I think there will need to be a dynamic striking moment for Grant to have his hand raised in Russia. From what I have seen on tape, Popov can be hit so it’s very possible, but Popov has the better striking. Popov wins a decision is the most likely outcome for this fight.
Betting
There isn’t much tape on Popov and Grant doesn’t fight frequently. Having said that Grant Winning by KO is +1045, that stood out as a good bet when I looked through the odds just now.
- Grant Wins by KO (+1045) $5 to win $50
Alexander Yakovlev (+115) Roosevelt Roberts (-125)
Alexander Yakovlev is 6'1" with a 74" reach, he fights out of K-Dojo Warrior Tribe. Yakovlev recently made the drop to 155 lbs from 170 lbs where he fought most of his career. Yakovlev does look a little unhealthy cutting to 155 lbs but that didn’t show up in his performance against Alex Da Silva. Yakovlev is a grappler, and he does look to be effective at 155 lbs. I can see Yakovlev’s elbows from takedown defense having an impact in this fight.
Roosevelt Roberts is 6'1" with a 74" reach, fighting out of California. He will have a striking advantage in this fight. I remember he gave the middle finger to Thomas Gifford when Thomas Gifford was failing at an arm bar at the end of the 2nd round. The beginning of the 3rd round he initiated the glove tap, I always thought that was a unique combination.
Prediction
The first time Roberts faced a step up in competition in Vinc Pichel, Pichel’s grappling was too much for Roberts. Yakovlev will be a big test for Roberts and I feel like Yakovlev’s grappling also wins in this contest. Roberts is used to having a reach and size advantage but in this fight. Yakovlev wins a decision with his grappling being the difference in this fight.
Betting
I like Yakovlev here. But it’s a close fight the odds seems to be about where they should be.
- Pass
Khadis Ibragimov (-160) vs. Ed Herman (+150)
Khadis Ibragimov is 6'3" with a 78" reach, he trains somewhere in Russia. He made his UFC debut in Shenzhen as a short notice fill in against Da Un Jung. This was an awesome fight, Khadis was basically a rock’em sock’em robot teeing off from the ladies tees, hitting the Korean in the face like 25 times. The Korean didn’t flinch, it was like when Rocky kept hitting Drago in the face and Drago didn’t move, this guy is the Korean terminator. The Korean’s brain recovered (or was never hurt) and Khadis’ cardio never did. Khadis punched himself out and lost via submission in round 3 because he could barely stand up. The big question heading into this fight is how is Khadis’ cardio going to hold up? Khadis puts everything he has into his looping punches and gassed out after round 1. He did fill in on short notice, but this cardio issue was not new. I remember betting on a 3rd round finish for Park in that fight because I knew that Khadis had poor cardio. Khadis looks in much better shape for this fight so we will have our answer Saturday afternoon in Moscow. I also want to say that Khadis had trouble with Park’s jab in that fight.
Ed Herman is 6'1" with a 77" reach, he fights out of Team Quest in Colorado. Herman is a veteran, more of a striker but has a college wrestling background. His knee that knocked out Patrick Cummings in Rochester could be dangerous in this fight.
Prediction
This is a really weird fight to think. I don’t how in shape Khadis Ibragimov looks at weigh ins, I promise you his cardio demons are still there. Any young fighter needs to learn how to pace himself, and you will see Ibragimov come out slower in this fight. But Ibragimov will be like a dog being told to stay before he chases the ball. Inevitably, we will see Ibragimov be a rock’em sock’em robot again, and consequently, we will see Ibragimov fatigue in this fight. The question is, “Can Ed Herman steer clear of Ibragimov when he turns into the rock’em sock’em robot?” I’d be lying if I told you I know. Ibragimov either wins this fight early or I think Ed Herman has a real chance to take this one. I also like Ed Herman’s knee as Ibragimov tends to duck his head. I think Ed Herman wins a decision if he can get out of the 1st round.
Betting
It just seems silly to bet this fight, the odds are right. Neither fighter is a fighter I would want to bet on based on merit.
Zelim Imadaev (-210) vs. Danny Roberts (+190)
Zelim Imadaev is 6’ with a 76” reach, he fights out of Russia somewhere. His UFC debut loss to Max Griffin was filled with drama. I will let Max tell you about it.
So Zelim is a little intense. Hopefully his encore performance is untroubled. Zelim is a whirling dervish, he does ALL the spinning stuff. Zelim defends takedowns by somersaulting, he throws spinning elbows out of the clinch, and spinning kicks are his favorite. He lost to Max Griffin in his UFC debut literally because he twirled so much Max could anticipate the twisting and would just move and clinch. He is a very skilled striker but his cardio and grappling need work. He also needs to stop spinning so much.
Danny Roberts is 6'1" with a 74" reach, he fights with the Blackzilions. Roberts is a southpaw with a boxing background. What I like most about Roberts is his will to win. I have seen him tired and win grappling exchanges against grapplers in the 3rd round. Roberts is an underrated grappler, he’s not a submission threat, but he’s good at finding top position and posturing for strikes. He refused to tap against Claudio Silva and the ref screwed him. The man has fighting in his blood and has a tremendous will to win. I do think he leaves his hands down after he throws strikes and out of scrambles which leaves him vulnerable to high kicks. In his fight with Zawanda the ref warned him about a 12–6 elbow while Roberts was elbowing Zawanda’s thigh from side control…pump the brakes ref.
Prediction
Zelim Imadaev is a very dangerous kickboxer and Roberts has trouble keeping his hands high after throwing strikes and out of scrambles. I’d be naive to say there isn’t a decent chance for Imadaev to KO Danny Roberts. Roberts has a boxing background but his real advantage is the grappling. Imadaev didn’t fare well grappling Max Griffin in his UFC debut, he fatigued. If Roberts can initiate grappling exchanges and wear on Imadaev’s cardio, I like his chances in this fight. Imadaev needs to stop doing the spinning stuff so often and either work on his cardio or consciously avoid the grappling and he probably wins this fight by KO in the 2nd round. But if this fight turns in to a grappling/dirty/taxing fight, Danny Roberts wins.
Betting
Don’t think there’s anything that stands out here. Just going to root for Danny Roberts here.
- Pass
Alexander Volkov (-270) vs. Greg Hardy (+230)
Greg Hardy is 6’5” with an 81” reach, and from what I understand Hardy has been locked in a room at American Top Team and done nothing but train MMA for the past 2 years. Hardy has asthma. The Ben Sosoli fight broadcasted that to the world but he has previously stated he’s had an asthma attack in the Alan Crowder fight. Hardy cuts weight to make the 266 lbs limit which does not help his cardio. Cardio is Greg Hardy’s biggest weakness as a mixed martial artist and Asthma is a nail in the cardio coffin. Hardy would do his MMA career a favor if he lost 30 lbs. People don’t like Greg Hardy because he has a horrific domestic violence history and are eager to see him lose. Hardy has played into this villain persona because if people tune in to see you lose, they are still tuning in, “Hated, adored, but never ignored.” Alexander Volkov is by far Hardy’s toughest opponent, and people are excited to see Hardy lose. The problem is, Hardy is an athletic freak that has worked very hard on his MMA skills at ATT and is now a skilled martial artist. His takedown defense is very good, his stand up has evolved to attack his opponent’s lead leg along with a functioning jab, and he has violent one shot KO power that very well could be on display in Moscow. But, there is a “BUT.” My father told me nothing matters before the word “but.” BUT with Asthma and cutting weight to make the 266 lbs limit, Hardy has 1 round of MMA energy until he dramatically decreases in output and capability. It’s hard for me to believe a 290 lbs man with asthma is going to make improvements with his cardio.
Alexander Volkov is 6’7” with an 81” reach, he fights out of Strela Team located in Moscow, Russia. Volkov does not have stellar takedown defense, his long limbs are a challenge to coordinate into takedown defense technique. He played with Fabricio Werdum on the ground for 3 rounds and didn’t get choked so I am giving him credit for decent Jiu Jitsu. Volkov keeps his hands low and his striking defense is not good because of it. He will use teep kicks to keep his opponent at his preferred distance. His cardio is not good, his mouth is wide open in every fight sucking air. Incorporate an open mouth with low hands and that’s the formula to get KO’d.
Prediction
I’ll tell you what, I am whelmed by Volkov after watching his old fights. When I heard about this fight I heard jubilant fight fans saying something like, “Finally, Hardy is going to get knocked out.” The last time I watched Greg Hardy I thought, “This dude has asthma attacks when he fights, his UFC career is effectively over.” But I guess it’s not because I think Hardy wins this fight. I do not see Volkov ending this fight in the 1st or 2nd rounds, I don’t see him knocking out Hardy out. Hardy is a freak athlete with a gigantic head, maybe I’m wrong but I don’t See Volkov starching Hardy while Hardy can still breath. I can imagine a scenario where Volkov fights behind a jab and teep kicks and Hardy can’t breath in the 3rd round and Volkov takes advantage of Hardy’s extreme fatigue. Volkov’s cardio sucks too so, even fighting a 290 lbs man with exercise induced asthma, it’s hard for me to rationalize Volkov having a cardio advantage in this fight. But, I guess it’s fair to say that the guy with regular lungs will have a cardio advantage in this fight. It’s a very effective technique to counter kicks with punches. American Top Team is probably working with Hardy to throw that straight right hand when Volkov kicks, that could be a very effective in this fight. More than that, I feel like there’s an element of “flinching” in Volkov’s defensive striking, it is very possible Hardy steps into a right hand and flat lines Volkov in Moscow. Volkov isn’t a great counter puncher and Hardy doesn’t strike me as a guy that’s tentative to throw. This is more of a long shot, but Hardy could probably learn to take Volkov to the ground if he really worked on his wrestling. From top position I feel like Hardy could easily posture you and end the fight. Hardy has also worked on his inside leg kicks against a southpaw for his last fight with Ben Sosoli. Again, if Hardy’s lungs are functioning that technique could be very effective in this fight. Hardy has incredible size, I don’t even think there will be a significant reach advantage that can’t be mitigated with leg kicks for either fighter. Alright, so what is likely to happen? It’s very possible Volkov is the superior martial artist and wins a 3 round decision against a 290 lbs man with exercise induced asthma, that is the most likely scenario. BUT I would not be surprised to see Hardy connect with a massive right hand and end the fight the same way Derrick Lewis did. Volkov looked very tentative against Derrick Lewis and Fabrico Werdum probably both fighters presented very serious threats that limited Volkov’s aggression. If the Volkov that fought Derrick Lewis shows up, I think that guy gets knocked out. Derrick Lewis had horrible cardio, his back didn’t work, his eye socket was blown up, he looked like he was holding in diarrhea every time he was kicked in the body, and that Derrick Lewis KO’d Volkov. Hardy is good, he just can’t breath, and I think that might be enough to stop Volkov in Moscow.
Betting
I can’t have that opinion about the fight and not bet Hardy here. I’m so whelmed by Volkov that I am not even throwing out the possibility of a Hardy decision. I recommend betting Hardy in Moscow on short notice at +230. If you disagree with me, I reckon you don’t bet Volkov at -270.
•Hardy Wins (+230) $10 to win $23
Zabit Magomedsharipov (-290) vs. Calvin Kattar (+260)
Zabit Magomedsharipov is 6'2" with a 73" reach, Mark Henry is his head coach. Zabit has been touted as a natural MMA fighter, meaning he is very skilled in all the disciplines of mixed martial arts. This is true, Zabit is skilled in all the disciplines of mixed martial arts which makes him a fighter without technical weaknesses. There is an interesting back story with Zabit that I think is worth telling. At 12 years old he attended a Wushu (Chinese Kung Fu) boarding school in the hills of Dagestan, commonly refereed to as, “The Shaolin of Dagestan.” Impressive UFC striker, Muslim Salikov, also attended this school and you can see some similarities in their fighting styles. I am going to post a video for those of you who want to know more about this Wushu boarding school for children.
Where I think Zabit is at his best is the body lock position against the fence. He can repeatedly take him opponent to the ground, not just with force, but he executes these subtle trips where his opponent will lose their balance and fall to the ground. Zabit makes his opponent hold his weight and threatens taking their back from this body lock against the fence position. The 2nd attribute that stood out to me with Zabit is his defensive striking. He’s very effective at using his reach to keep his opponent as his preferred distance. While finding his range, Zabit is a very efficient counter striker and he rarely gets hit clean. Zabit does spend a significant amount of time fighting backwards which can tax a fighters cardio. Zabit fights from a high level from both orthodox and southpaw. One luxury of switching stances is Zabit can avoid damage from leg kicks accumulating. The primary benefit of Zabit switching stances is now his opponent has to prepare for a southpaw and an orthodox fighter. Zabit’s striking can be similar to his Wushu boarding school classmate, Muslim Salikov, they both like the spinning stuff. Kicks or punches, look for Zabit to throw some spinning stuff. Zabit likes to throw creative kicks. I haven’t seen Zabit shoot many double legs, he initiates his wrestling from the clinch position. Judo throws are absolutely on the menu in a Zabit fight, cute little ankle hook trips can happen, and I’ve seen Zabit catch body kicks to initiate the clinch. On the ground Zabit’s size is a problem for his opponent, his long limbs help him transition from the back to mount and is absolutely a threat to finish any opponent on the ground. You will also see Zabit look at the clock. Usually when a fighter looks at the clock is a sign of fatigue and that is true here, but Zabit will look at the clock because he is an educated fighter. He wants to know the time he has to work with to set reasonable goals for himself. I haven’t even talked about the massive size advantage Zabit brings to the 145 lbs division, Zabit lives up to the praise of being a natural MMA fighter. There is one weakness in Zabit Magomedsharipov’s game, and that is cardio. I’m not sure if Zabit’s cardio problem is training related, weight cut related, or genetically related but Zabit does fade as the fight wears into the 3rd round. This fight was recently moved up to the main event after Junior Dos Santos had to pull out and Zabit did not accept a 5 round fight. There is a cardio issue at play. I also have not seen Zabit working from his guard and Zabit didn’t dominate Jeremy Stephens like he beat his other UFC opponents. There is something to be said about Calvin Kattar testing Zabit in this fight. So lets go look at Kattar and see how this fight will play out.
Calvin Kattar is 5'11" with a 72" reach, he fights out of Lauzon MMA. Kattar is a boxer that switches stances but favors his right hand. From the orthodox stance his strength is his left jab and heavy right hand. From southpaw he likes his right jab. Against longer fighters Kattar relies on side to side movement in the pocket and countering with his right hand. Renato Moicano exposed Kattar’s weakness, not checking leg kicks. Kattar relies on his movement, and Moicano chewed up both of his legs severely limiting his ability to move. Not being able to move resulted in a one sided loss. Kattar is a one dimensional fighter, he doesn’t throw kicks, rarely shoots for a takedown, and I haven’t had a look at his takedown defense. But, he has power in his right hand and has a chance in every fight because of it.
Prediction
When you compete in MMA it is good to have a all the skills. Zabit has all the skills and Kattar has some of the skills. That is the difference in the fight. Kattar wants to hang around boxing range with side to side movement looking for a counter right hand. The problem is Zabit has a size advantage and is going to fight in kicking range. Kicking range is longer than boxing range. Kattar will have to go to plan B which is walk Zabit down looking for a punch. Zabit is a fantastic counter striker, not only with his hands, but he can counter with a takedown. I haven’t seen Kattar’s ground game, but I wouldn’t bet it’s better than Zabit’s. There are 2 ways Kattar can win. Zabit has shown to have a cardio issue at 145 lbs. If that cardio issue comes into play in this fight, he is in trouble against Calvin Kattar. The 2nd way Kattar wins is if he hurts Zabit with a right hand, he needs to hurt Zabit with his right hand or he doesn’t have much of a chance in this fight. The last thing to rehydrate is the cerebral fluid around your brain, Kattar has already KO’d an opponent who cuts a lot of weight in Shane Burgos. It is possible he KO’s Zabit, but not likely. If I knew more about Kattar’s ground game, I would entertain the possibility Zabit wins by submission, but Zabit wins a decision in a 3 round main event in Moscow.
Betting
Kattar wins in round 3 at +1750 seems like a reasonable option. Zabit has one weakness and it’s cardio. If Kattar knocks him out, I think it would be round 3. I made a bet on Zabit when he was -210 but it’s not worth betting on him at -300. Just not a good bet at -300.
- Kattar wins in round 3 (+1750) $5 to win $87.50
