UFC New Jersey

Hannah Goldy (-150) Miranda Granger (+130)

Hannah Gold passes the eye test, she’s jacked. I looked at her and I looked at a google image of Miranda Granger and I thought, “Goldy gets it done each time, every time.” Before I got too far out over my skis I wanted to watch Goldy and Granger fight. On Dana White’s Contender Series Goldy showed good clinch work against the cage and good defensive wrestling against a girl who wanted to her down, but didn’t show interest in taking the fight to the mat. Goldy may have not wanted to be in Robbins’ guard because jiu jitsu was Robbins’ strength. I think a more reasonable explanation is Goldy started mixed martial arts 5 years ago and doesn’t have high level wrestling and jiu jitsu skills. Goldy is strong and her strength helps her compensate in grappling and wrestling situations where she doesn’t have a high level skill set. I did feel like Goldy showed power on occasions with her strikes from the clinch and head kicks from a scramble (think Holm Rousey KO). When you see someone is extremely muscular you always wonder if they are going to fatigue early. I didn’t have an issue with Goldy’s cardio on the Contender Series. My understanding is Goldy fights at 125 lbs, the Contender Series made her cut to 115 lbs. Her fight in Newark is 125 lbs, if I din’t notice anything glaring with her cardio at 115 lbs I am not anticipating a problem in Newark. Before I move on I would like to make a statement on the UFC Fight Pass/ ESPN+ situation. If UFC Fight Pass isn’t showing a fight because of the 2019 ESPN+ deal, don’t have me click on it and say its blacked out and shown on ESPN+. Maybe redirect me to the ESPN+ website that carries the fight I want to see. If I have ESPN+ there will be a seamless transition to watch the fight I want to watch. If I don’t have ESPN+ I would have an opportunity to sign up if I wanted to rewatch recent fights. ESPN+ is an extremely difficult website to navigate for fight fans. I watched Hannah Goldy vs Kali Robbins on ESPN+ to try and figure out who I think is going to win in Newark. I wanted to watch it again and couldn’t find it. UFC Fight Pass is easy to navigate, ESPN+ isn’t. anyways, Miranda Granger won her last 2 fights via standing guillotine choke and arm bar. Neither of those are happening in this fight. I think this speaks more to the competition level at Cage Fury than is doesn’t Miranda Granger. I’ve heard Joe Rogan say, “that guillotine looks tight…wait never mind he’s out” 100 times. This isn’t Cage Fury, CM Punk doesn’t do the post fight interviews, and the fighters don’t get caught in standing guillotines here. I don’t see this fight going to the ground. These 2 ladies are going to stand and strike for 15 minutes or less. Goldy likes to circle the perimeter and strike. A little aside, the UFC octagon is 10 feet longer in diameter so there’s more room for the fighters. The best video I found of Miranda striking is a YouTube video shot from a fan sitting in the crowd. Granger fought Kaila Thompson. Thompson did catch Granger with a big punch early. Granger weathered the storm and stopped the fight in the 2nd round with strikes in Thompson’s full guard. I do not know how Granger’s striking translates to the UFC’s flyweight division.

Prediction

I don’t see Granger’s grappling working well in this fight. Goldy is a natural 125 lbs fighter, Granger is a natural 115 lbs fighter. Size matters, especially with women. Robbins had some success with leg kicks. Granger has an 8 inch reach advantage in this fight. Using her length to chop Goldy’s legs may cause a decrease in her mobility. I would also like to see Granger cut Goldy’s movement. Robbins seemed to follow Goldy around the octagon in circles, Granger needs to cut off her movement. I want to talk myself into Granger winning, she has a significant reach advantage, leg kicks could be effective, and she will cut Goldy’s movement off in the octagon. At the end of the day I think Goldy wins this fight. If Goldy used her strength to grapple more i’d be more confident but I give too many check marks to Goldy to pick Granger and i’m not impressed with the competition level at Cage Fury.

Betting

I was impressed with was Goldy’s head kicks from a scramble and strikes from the clinch. Gambling is designed to be fun, I’m a fun guy, prop bets at noon on a Saturday are fun, and I have 2. Goldy wins in the 2nd round +1075, Goldy wins in the 3rd +1750. Size matters, especially with women, Goldy will be much bigger in this contest and I see Granger losing the grappling exchanges simply from the differences in strength. As long as Goldy doesn't gas I see her wearing down Granger and catching her with a head kick or elbow out of the clinch that shuts Granger’s lights out.

· Goldy wins (-140) 1 unit

· Goldy wins in 2nd round (+1075) 1 unit

· Goldy wins in 3rd round (+1750) 1 unit

Claudio Silvia (-420) Cole Williams (+300)

Claudio Silva is a mutant on the ground, if he takes you to the ground, he will choke you unconscious or break your limbs. Silvia beat my boy Leon Edwards and I’m a big Leon Edwards guy, so I’m impressed. I watched Claudio Silva vs Leon Edwards, Nordine Taleb, and Danny Roberts. Claudio does not have high level stand up but he can certainly throw some body kicks and a left hand. Leon Edwards, Nordine Taleb, and Danny Roberts all win in a kick boxing contest, but all lost in the octagon. A man wearing a gi doesn’t beat those guys so we know Silva has striking skills. Silva doesn’t have a glass jaw. This is important because he is not a high level wrestler. In order for Silva to take you down he needs to get close. He will take punches to drag the fight to the ground. He does not have tremendous cardio which plays in to fights that go into the 3rd round. Cole Williams is a big white guy that’s capable of punching.Williams is a last minute fill in and missed weight.

Prediction

Silva wins this fight by submission in the 1st round. Cole Williams doesn’t have much to offer Silva.

Betting

I think this fight most closely reminds me of Claudio Silva vs Nordine Taleb. Nordine Taleb is a much higher-level striker than Cole Williams, but Silvia will still have to strike with Williams at least once in order to get the fight to the ground. Silva mounted Taleb and rained down devastating blows. Silva will get mount in this fight unless he KO’s Williams in the first round. Who’s to say the ref doesn’t call the fight by TKO when Silva is punching Williams from mount? Silva is a tough kid from a hard part of Brazil, he didn’t forget how to punch. Everyone expects Silvia to win by submission and the odds reflect that, the odds for winning by TKO/KO are (+675).

· Claudio Silva wins by TKO/KO (+675) 1 unit

Mara Romero Borella (-165) Lauren Murphy (+145)

Mara Romero Borella fights out of Coconut Creek, Florida training at American Top Team. Her debut was a beautiful rear naked choke and Borella looked promising. Unfortunately, she lost to Katlyn Chookagian in her 2nd fight in the UFC. Borella had trouble setting up her take downs because she didn’t have a reach advantage and she was stuck kick boxing with Chookagian. Borella wants to use her strikes to get close enough to grapple with you against the cage. When Borella didn’t have a reach advantage it looked like she was lost without having a plan B. The judges noticed that too and she lost a decision. After watching that fight I thought, “Something is missing, she looks the part but something is off.” I watched “Lucky” Lauren Murphy fight to a split decision victory over Barb Honchak and a decision loss to Sijara Eubanks. “Lucky” Lauren has a good ground game off her back, even executing a rare rubber guard against Eubanks. There’s nothing that really stands out about “Lucky” Lauren that gives her a physical advantage over Borella.

Prediction

When I studied these two fighters the one overwhelming takeaway was Borella doesn’t want it as bad as “Lucky” Lauren. Borella has every physical advantage in this fight as well as age. Murphy is coming off a cartilage injury in her foot where she needed to take time off to regrow cartilage. Borella should win this fight based off of physical attributes, but you know what? Murphy wants it more and she’s getting lucky in this one.

Betting

· “Lucky” Lauren Murphy by decision (+250) 1 unit

Jordan Espinoza (-120) Matt Schnell (+100)

Jordan Espinoza likes to stay at distance, occasionally come in for a strike and quickly get back to safe space. I’ve seen him shoot for a well timed take down but his wrestling isn’t remarkable and not a factor. Espinoza gets caught with left hooks a weirdly frequent amount. Espinoza keeps his hands low but does maintain distance as a priority so it’s not a huge problem. I do think Espinoza does slowdown in the 3rd round which isn’t a great sign for his prospects at flyweight. I didn’t see knockout power, he doesn’t like being in the clinch or any kind of firefight. Matt Schnell has decent boxing and throws a weirdly high amount of left hands (foreshadowing). I think that might have to do with having surgery on his right shoulder. I don’t think the ground game plays a significant part of this fight but I do like Schnell’s ground game better. Schnell has the advantage in the cardio department. Schnell did survive the mass exodus of the flyweight division by going to bantamweight, and now he’s back. I always root for a guy that just won’t leave, hes a survivor.

Prediction

Schnell is 100% catching Espinoza with at least one flush left hook in this fight. I also think Schnell will cut the ring off and force Espinoza to dance even more, putting even more pressure on Espinoza’s cardio. Espinoza will dance so much in this fight his lateral movement will become predictable. There’s a good possibility Schnell shoots for a takedown on Espinoza when hes moving laterally. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Schnell take Espinoza down in the 3rd round, effectively stealing the round. I have a lot of checks on Schnell’s box, size, cardio, ground game, left hooks, and hes a survivor. Schnell trained at American Top Team and currently trains with Joseph Benavidez, and that guy is a killer. Good training means something in mma, Schnell wins by decision.

Betting

Schnell catches Espinoza with a left hook so flush that it staggers him and at least wins the round, but its real tough to have knockout power at flyweight. I think Schnell gets the decision here but I’m not going to bet the decision prop because I would feel pretty dumb if Schnell KO’s Espinoza with a left hook and I don’t win money.

· Matt Schnell wins (+100) 1 unit

Antonina Shevchenko (-145) Lucie Pudilova (+125)

Lucie Pudilova has a kick boxing style with her kicks being her best attribute. Antonina Shevchenko has more of a Muay Tai style utilizing the tai clinch well. Fight fans claim Pudilova has a grappling game, I've never seen in and don’t think it comes out in this fight. Both girls have had troubles against grappling heavy opponents. Pudilova looked extremely timid with her strikes against Liz Carmouche because she didn’t want to be taken down and Shevchenko lost a decision to Roxy Mondafferi, because she couldn’t handle Roxy’s wrestling. Pudilova will be the Pudilova that fought Irene Aldana, kicking like a rockette dancer, fearless of her opponent grappling her. Shevchenko will be happy to partake in a Muay Tai fight with Pudilova.

Prediction

There are a couple things I feel separate these two women. The first is cardio, I feel like Lucie Pudilova gasses out late in fights. In the Irene Aldana fight I remember Pudilova throwing a ton of kicks and walking Aldana down in the 2nd round. In the 3rd round of that fight she was extremely fatigued. Pudilova is also a career 135 lbs fighter, 125 lbs isn’t going to help her cardio. The second fact I feel like affect this fight is Valentina Shevchenko is Antonina’s sister. If the baddest flyweight on the plant, and the women who I feel gives Amanda Nunes the hardest fight, is your sister, you are going to get better at mma, I don’t care about the detractors to that statement. The third thing that gives Antonina the edge in this fight is her tai clinches. I can see Antonina in against the fence kneeing Pudilova in the face from the tai clinch with Valentina in the background going, “Yaaaaaaaa.”

Betting

I think Shevchenko has more mma skill training with her sister and I think she beats Pudilova. I also believe that Pudilova is going to have trouble with her cardio and there is an opportunity for Shevchenko to KO her in the 3rd round. If the Pudilova from the 3rd round of the Irene Aldana fight shows up to the 3rd round in this fight, Antonina tai clinch knees her unconscious. Also, how can you not bet the Shevchenko sisters parlay with Valentina fighting next week?

· Antonina/Valentina Shevchenko Parlay (-110) 1 unit

· Antonina Shevchenko 3rd round finish (+1975) 1 unit

Salim Touahri (-125) Micky Gall (+105)

I was excited about Salim Touahri, he’s got a cool name, he looked the part when he was walking to the octagon in Poland as a late fill against Warlley Alves. But he was completely outclassed. It was a short notice fill in for Touahri, so I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt. His next fight was vs Keita Nakamura a veteran of the sport, alright here we go. He was extremely unimpressive in this fight too. In both fights Touahri fatigued in the 3rd round, I didn’t notice any remarkable wrestling or jiu jitsu skills, he likes to strike. I wouldn’t consider Salim Touahri a threat at the welterweight division any time soon. Micky Gall is also in the position where he needs a win if he wants to continue his UFC career. Gall has a decent ground game, if he takes your back you might be in a little bit of trouble. When he fought Randy Brown he was hurt and continued to a decision, I thought he won the second round in that fight and I am a big Randy Brown fan. Now, he also grabbed the fence about 9 times, held Randy’s gloves and grabbed his shorts, but I’ll tell you what, I like a guy that cheats. A guy that cheats wants to win. Stand up is not Micky’s strength but he did hit Randy Brown in the face in the first round so he’s not Ben Askren.

Prediction

Keita Nakamura timed some take downs well against Touahri, I think Gall can hang with him long enough to steal rounds with grappling. In Gall’s fight vs Diego Sanchez his body shut down. He claimed his kidneys failed due to his weight cut, I believe him. I think Gall has a better weight cut and takes the fight to the ground enough to win a decision. I find the non-traditional mma markets struggle with jiu jitsu and wrestling, and I think Micky wins because of his skills on the ground. If not, look for Gall to fence grab, mix in dick kick, that guy isn’t going down without a fight.

Betting

· Micky Gall wins by decision (+420) 1 unit

Darko Stosic (-130) Kennedy Nzechukwu (+110)

Darko Stosic starts fights by standing in the center of the octagon and trying to unleash a massive counter right hand, he’s like a boa constrictor for the first round. Stosic has the classic problem with big muscular guys entering the octagon, all those muscles need oxygen, what happens when the fight gets out of the first round? Stosic did go three rounds with Devin Clark but wasn’t fresh in the 2nd and 3rd rounds and lost a decision. Stosic’s wrestling is good, he reversed the take down attempt from Jeremy Kimbell and found top position where he finished the fight. Stosic had success grappling when he was tired in the 2nd and 3rd rounds vs Clark. Kennedy Nzechukqu clearly has problems with his ground game evidenced by the Paul Craig fight. Fortunately for Nzechukqu, I’m not sure Stosic is looking put him in a triangle or arm bar from guard. Kennedy has a 10 inch reach advantage but, the only significant strike came from eye poke in the Paul Craig fight. Kennedy has physical attributes but I don’t see a killer instinct in him.

Prediction

If Stosic catches Nzechukwu in the 1st round the fight is finished. I don’t see any killer instinct with Nzechukwu. I even think Stosic can win by decision. Stosic has a huge advantage grappling . Nzechukwu’s best chance of winning is keeping his distance with his massive 10-inch reach advantage and winning by decision. Darko Stosic wins by first round KO.

Betting

Stosic has cardio issues. If the fight leaves the first round, Stosic can still win with his grappling even if he is tired. I don’t believe in this Nzechukwu at all. I can’t see Stosic losing to him.

· Darko Stosic wins (-130) 1 unit

Scott Holtzman (-450) Don Hyun Ma (+360)

Scott Holtzman is well rounded fighter. One thing I noticed in his bout with Patrick is he fights long, catching Patrick on his way in. I feel like Holzman judges distance well and does have power in his right hand. I’ve also noticed Holzman has good defense coming away from scrambles, getting his hands up to block head kicks. Sometimes when fighters lose tough decisions I ask myself, “Who would win in a fight to the death?” In McGregor vs. Diaz 2, Nate kills him every time. If Holtzman met Nick Lentz in the Colosseum, Holtzman wins every time. I don’t take too much away from a fighter if they lose that type of decision. Don Hyun Ma is a South Korean guy age of 30. I spent 15 minutes trying to find Don Hyun Ma’s old fights, I think I found that Dong Hyun Ma also goes by Dong Hyun Kim. I’m still very confused on the issue. I may or may not have watched one round of Don Hyun Ma/Kim. I’m going to assume he’s like the other Korean fighters, he likes to strike and his wrestling and ground game is sub par. I find the Korean’s lack wrestling and jiu jitsu because they have just recently got into mma.

Prediction

Scott Holzman looks like a well-rounded fighter. As an ex hockey player myself, I can’t go against him here. I wonder if he ever dropped the gloves in the east coast league, I have to think so, right? Shout out to the Knoxville Cherokees.

Betting

I don’t know anything about Holtzman’s opponent. I do know that Holtzman likes to stand and strike so I don’t believe he will take Don Hyun Ma down unless its a Don Hyun Ma specific game plan, so the Korean might be a live dog here. (+360) is a pretty substantial underdog, everyone likes a good underdog story, I’ll go against the hockey guy, give me the Korean

· Don Hyun Ma wins by TKO/KO (+1400) 0.5 units

Trevin Giles (-160) Gerald Meerschaert (+140)

Trevin Giles is a good boxer. He moved to 185 lbs. and looked really good against Antônio Braga Neto. I saw Giles in Rochester where he took his first loss against Patrick Cummings. Giles had 500 days between fights when he lost to Patrick Cummings. In any case be prepared for him to, “Wooo” along with the crowd. I’m not a big fan of the, “Wooo” chant. Gerald Meerschaert is fantastic on the ground. Meerschaert unfortunately was a part of Jack Hermanson’s coming out party. Meerschaert was surprised Hermanson wanted to take the fight to the ground and I saw Hermanson cut through Meerschaert’s half guard to full mount like butter. The fight didn’t get better for Meerschaert. Meerschaert vs Kevin Holland seemed like an endless transition of one guy choking the other to the other guy choking each other. It reminded me of this comic that made me laugh, a guy walks into a sexual choking class wearing his gi and addresses the female instructor, “Please, be more specific in your advertisements next time, in my last match I made this guy cum.” Having spent some time on the mat, getting to know some jiu jitsu guys, I can almost imagine that happening. I did find that Meerschaert was extremely fatigued in the Holland fight.

Prediction

I have no idea what’s going to happen in this fight. I feel more confident predicting Don Hyun Ma’s fight, and I couldn’t watch a single one of his fights on UFC Fight Pass. I wouldn’t blindly guess, Ill just watch this one, I’d at least like to have an inkling before I made a prediction.

Betting

· Pass

Nasrat Haqparast (-255) Jaoquim Silva (+215)

Nasrat Haqparast is ferocious with his hands. I have no problem with his cardio. His wrestling looks good. His ground game looks good. Young. Looks like Kelvin Gastelum. This kid is a killer. Fights out of Tristar in Montreal. Jaoquim Silvia is very patient fighter. I believe Silva has cardio issues and he tries to pace himself. Silva has knockout power but he tries to conserve energy so he can only dip into the well a couple times in a fight. Silva tends to be trailing 2 rounds to 0 heading into the 3rd round, this is where you may find him trying to go for a knockout and get into the pocket more. Against Jared Gordon he was down 2 rounds to 0 and went for a knockout. Silva was fortunate to find a completely gassed fighter, I don’t think Silva knocks out Jared Gordon without extreme fatigue.

Prediction

Haqparast is going to knock Jaoquim Silva out. I don’t see a single advantage Silva has in this fight. I think you might actually see Haqparast chasing Silva around the ring as if it was a game of tag in the 1st round. Haqparast wins by KO in the 2nd round.

Betting

Haqparast is going to win. In The Water boy, Bobby Boucher’s girlfriend predicts the score of the championship game and Bobby Boucher returns to the team at half time and they win by that exact score. That’s the level of confidence I have in Haqparast winning this fight, Bobby Boucher’s girlfriend confidence.

· Haqparast wins (-255) 3 units

· Haqparast wins by TKO/KO (+225) 2 units

Jim Miller (-150) Clay Guida (+130)

Jim Miller is born in New Jersey, home town fight. Miller shoots good double legs and is very good at choking you out when he takes your back. Miller did most of his good work before I was an mma fan, I don’t think watching a couple of his fights is going to give me an understanding of his skill set. Clay Guida is 37 years old. This guy strikes me, along with Diego Sanchez, as a guy that’s really going to give father time a fight. I don’t claim to know much about Clay Guida. I hear his cardio is excellent.

Prediction

I asked my friend Jim who he thinks is going win a fight between Clay Guida and Jim Miller, “Both veterans and stand up guys, I’ll go with Guida”-My friend Jim. If you trust my friend Jim go for it.

Betting

Apparently a lot of people think my friend Jim is an idiot based on his Guida pick, I guess well find out.

· Clay Guida wins (+130) 1 unit

Colby Covington (-235) vs Robbie Lawler (+195)

Colby Covington has elite cardio and puts a pace on guys that wins fights. I watched Colby’s loss to Warlley Alves thinking, “Alves is a good kick boxer and may mimic what Colby will see Saturday.” He got caught in a standing guillotine choke I don’t see UFC fighters get caught in. I don’t really see that translating at all in this fight. Covington allowed Damien Maia to bloody his face, so his striking isn’t his strength. Robbie Lawler is the people’s fighter. 90% of people will be rooting for Lawler this weekend. I watched Lawler’s Strike Force fight with Tim Kennedy at 185 lbs. Lawler struggled to stay off his back but did catch Tim with a nasty upper cut. Lawler probably still has that uppercut in his arsenal. Covington isn’t a double leg wrestler, he wants to take Lawler against the fence and grapple, his cardio allows him to put this pace on for the full fight. Lawler’s smashing of Ben Askren went viral, he’s dangerous against anyone in UFC’s welterweight division.

Prediction

Covington wins this fight by decision. Lawler won’t be able to keep up with the pace for 5 rounds. Covington is going to push the pace, pin Lawler against the fence for 25 minutes, put his Make America Great Again hat on and carry the cool UFC belt out of the octagon. He may catch a couple punches from Robbie but fighting is a young man’s game. Covington isn’t Ben Askren, Lawler will have to defend himself on the feet. Covington and Lawler both spent time at American Top Team, they’ve sparred together, they both know what they’re up against. I give Lawler a chance to knock Covington out in the 1st round, but its Covington’s fight after that.

Betting

I will take Covington by decision, I think that’s the most likely outcome but I am planning on enjoying this main event, its a good one.

· Colby Covington wins by decision (+127) 1 unit