UFC Shenzhen
UFC 241 Recap
- Sabina Mazo looked like a different fighter in her fight with Shana Dobson compared to her UFC debut. It looked like Mazo went into the gym and improved while Dobson did not improve. Mazo initiated the clinch and brought a different set of boxing skills into this fight. Woof, got that one wrong.
- I was on my feet for the 3rd round of the Drakkar Klose vs. Christos Giagos fight. I wanted to be right really bad, but unfortunately for me, Klose did not end the fight in the 3rd round like I had thought. My wife’s Armenian family was over to our place and rooting for the Giagos fighter in the 3rd round because he was, “the better looking fighter.” Yea, that was annoying. But, if you guys ever see Christos Giagos on a fight card, remember, he has 2 rounds in him before he completely fatigues.
- When Bruce Buffer prepares an outfit, he’s going to get a spot on the Recap. It was a big pay per view, I thought Bruce was going to peacock in something with a little more pizzazz. But that’s what makes Bruce, Bruce. He knows you’re thinking about his blazers. And just when you think you figured him out, he goes smooth purple, carefully toeing the line of subtle and flash. Touché Bruce.
- Khama Worthy with the big knockout. I love seeing guys like that take an opportunity and cash in. Enjoy that $50,000 Khama Worthy.
- Nate Diaz might be back and I’m ready for it.
- I love Stipe, I’m so happy he won. Although, I’m not sure how he let DC out box him for 3 rounds. I also think his boxing coach should be fired for only suggesting to go to the body in the 4th round. It wasn’t Stipe’s best performance, but he’s the undeniably the greatest heavyweight of all time.
Jessica Andrade (-190) vs. Weili Zhang (+165)
Everyone loves pouring coffee to a title fight. We have Jessica Andrade flying to Shenzhen to make her first title defense against Weili Zhang. Andrade had a crack at this title before against Joanna Jedrzejczyk. What we learned in that fight was Andrade couldn't consistently close the distance and lost a 5 round decision. She did have some early success with takedowns but Jedrzejczyk got back up to her feet. In the 5th round of that fight DC pointed out that right before Andrade tries to close the distance she drops her head. That’s a a pretty significant tell. I would imagine some fighters would prepare an uppercut for that. I don’t want to watch the Karolina Kowalkiewicz again. Andrade did a great job of closing the distance and showcasing her power with a 1st round knockout. Rose Namajunas exposed a weakness Andrade has. Elite strikers can keep Andrade at bay. Andrade is short for the division and needs to get on the inside. Longer fighters that are elite strikers can beat Jessica Andrade. I guess the question is, does Weili Zhang have the striking ability to keep Andrade at bay? Weili Zhang will be the bigger fighter in this fight. I am not a big Jessica Aguilar fan because I don’t think she is very good. I noticed Aguilar had no problem initiating the clinch in her fight with Zhang. If Andrade initiates the clinch that easily, Zhang might be in trouble. Zhang's game plan could have been to initiate the clinch, so I am not going to get too far out over my skis about that. In the Aguilar fight and the Tecia Torres fight, Zhang utilized kicks a lot from her stand up. Specifically, she utilized a spinning taekwondo kick that I thought was effective in both fights. She sets this up when her opponent is circling away from her right hand. I don’t think Andrade will be able to catch these kicks and take the fight to the mat. In the first round Torres initiated a clinch and arm dragged Zhang to the floor. Zhang quickly reversed it, but I don’t think she quickly reverses that against Andrade. When Torres rushed in, Zhang did a fantastic job of stepping out of the way and smacking her with a check left hook. I can see that being successful against Andrade. Zhang’s favorite take down attempt is a headlock with a throw, I think Andrade is too physically strong for that to work. I do think Zhang will be the most physically impressive fighter Andrade has seen in the UFC.
Prediction
I try to think how each fighter is going to win the fight. With Jessica Andrade, her defining characteristic is power, she wants to overpower you. Andrade knocked out Kowalkiewicz because she over powered her with punches. Tecia Torres had success as the more skilled striker but Andrade eventually closed the distance and slammed Torres. The only time Andrade was winning in the Namajunas fight was when she closed the distance and used her power to slam Rose on her head. Zhang is going to be the most physically imposing fighter Andrade has faced. Zhang’s striking isn’t as good as Namajunas or Jedrzejczyk’s but her striking is elite. Andrade doesn’t fair well when facing elite strikers, even Tecia Torres touched her consistently. In the Torres fight, I did see one of her cornermen with a towel pulling the “Yoel Romero Special”. No one spills water and forgets to wipe it off in between rounds, that just doesn’t happen unless you’re trying to give your fighter extra rest. Alright, so what is going to happen in this fight? Mike Tyson has the famous quote, “Everyone has a game plan until they get punched in the face.” I think that quote can also mean, fighters tend to revert to what feels natural. Jessica Andrade really wants to close the distance and swing her fists as fast as possible. If she can close the distance and slam you to the ground she also likes doing that. If she gets in top position she will try to hit you with her hands but there isn’t much guard passing involved in that operation. The problem I see is, I don’t think that she will be able to close the distance and knock out Zhang like she knocked out Kowalkiewicz. I also think slamming Zhang is a possibility but Zhang is too good on the ground to be finished with Andrade’s ground and pound, she will get back up like Jedrzejczyk. I do think that Weili Zhang has a combination of a physically imposing physique and high level striking that is the kryptonite for Jessica Andrade. I think Zhang’s striking will be a problem for Andrade. If Andrade does clinch, Zhang isn’t a stranger to clinch. If Andrade doesn’t have success clinching, fatigue sets in. Clinch fighting is a very taxing style of fighting and I don’t believe Andrade has the ability to dominate Zhang in the clinch or finish the fight from top position. Weili Zhang will continue to wear Andrade down with her striking after Andrade doesn’t have success clinching early. Weili Zhang knocks Jessica Andrade out in the 4th round of this title fight.
Betting
I don’t write these because I’m a big gambler. I put $50 online when I went to UFC Rochester to make the fights more interesting, and I will never reload. I started this hobby because I like knowing the songs of an artist before I attend a concert. Knowing the different skill sets of each fighter makes the fights more interesting to me. So, if you’re reading this for gambling picks, I hope you find insight on the fights that help you make your own, good, decisions. As for the betting, I’m putting $50 on Weili Zhang as an underdog. If there is going to be a party for the first ever Chinese champion in Shenzhen, I want to be apart of it.
- Weili Zhang Wins (+155) $50 to win $77.50
Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos (-305) vs. Li Jingliang (+225)
Dos Santos is a dangerous striker, you won’t hear the crowd go, “Woooo” when Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos is in the octagon. The fight with Max Griffin showcased his boxing ability and his cardio. The fight could have been stopped after the 1st round but Dos Santos dominated a vicious 3 round decision. The spinning hook kick knockout of Sean Strickland and the flying knee knockout of Luigi Vendramini show how dangerous and versatile Dos Santos can be with his striking. In Dos Santos’ most recent fight with Curtis Millender he showed good take downs and dominated Millender on the ground. He easily took advantage of Millender’s weakness winning by rear naked choke. Li Jingliang’s ground game was exposed by Jake Mathews’ black belt. If it wasn’t for the worst eye gauge I have ever seen, I think Mathews gets the submission in round 2. Li showed that he can take a punch and continue to be dangerous until the end of the fight. Li showed what his skill set is against Daichi Abe. Abe wasn’t a strong opponent for Li. He showcased his lower leg kicks, good boxing, and his power. Li does not feature a wrestling attack.
Prediction
Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos has a path to victory I would like to see him attempt. In the Curtis Millender fight there was a concerted effort to use his wrestling and work his jiu jitsu. He submitted Millender in the 1st round. I haven’t seen Jingliang off his back and I would like to see that in this fight. But, similar to Vincente Luque, it’s not Dos Santos’ nature to be a wrestler. I think he engages in a stand up fight where he has the advantage. Dos Santos is riding a 7 fight win streak and is capable of knocking an opponent out with wheel kicks, flying knees and punches. He also has a ground game. I kind of think Dos Santos is going to knock out Li Jinglang in the 3rd round. Both fighters have shown decent chins and good cardio. Dos Santos is a superior striker and I think he knocks Jinglang out in the 3rd round.
Betting
(-305) is a steep price to pay for Dos Santos even though I do think he wins this fight. As of now I am going to pass on this fight.
- Pass
Jung Da Un (+260) vs. Khadis Ibragimov (-380)
Jung Da Un likes to control the octagon to start rounds. He does have a tendency to receive lower legs kicks. He likes to use his wrestling when he can tell his opponent is compromised. He doesn’t have high level wrestling but he tends to end up in full mount to finish fights. This probably speaks to the level of opposition he has faced rather than his ground game. Jung took Peterson Almeida to the ground and finished him in full mount. Sasa Milinkovic posed more of a threat but when Jung hurt Milinkovic he again found full mount to finish the fight. Jamahal Hill looks to have VISA issues and won’t fight. I anticipate the UFC finding a local Chinese competitor to fill in.
Song Kenan (-140) vs. Derrick Krantz (+100)
Wow. Kenan Song kicked Bobby Nash in the dick and then knocked him out cold within 10 seconds. That’s one hell of a UFC debut. That same right hand was used to knock out Hector Aldana late in the 2nd round. Man, Song is a fun fighter to watch. He wants to walk you down and attack. Unfortunately, Alex Morono was a better fighter in his most recent fight, he lost an entertaining decision. I saw Derrick Krantz in Rochester against Vince Luque. He shot out of his corner, smacked Luque with 2 big right hands, took him down, took Luque’s back, and nearly choked him out. I was in shock. Unfortunately, he had a problem when Luque got back to his feet. That problem was a very pissed off Vincente Luque. Luque won by knockout in the 1st round. He filled in as a short notice fill in for that fight. The UFC is rewarding him with another opportunity in Shenzhen.
Prediction
Derrick Krantz is going to be a willing opponent for Song Kenan. Unfortunately, I don’t think Krantz is going to be able to offer Song more than Alex Morono. Song engages in a fire fight right out of the gate with Krantz and Song wins by knockout in the 1st round.
Betting
Bet Song Kenan here at (-140). Derrick Krantz isn’t a UFC caliber fighter. I root for guys who seize opportunity and Derrick Krantz is one of those guys. He was a short notice fill in for UFC Rochester and the UFC rewarded him with another fight. Song Kenan is a better fighter and (-140) has value here. I do think Song wins by knockout, I will be interested in the knockout lines for this fight.
- Kenan wins (-140) $14 to win $10
Yanan Wu (+120) vs. Mizuki Inoue (-140)
Yanan Wu is a young fighter. She was out grappled by Gina Mazany and lost a decisive 3 round decision. At the end of the 2nd round it looked like her shoulder popped out. From the way she handled it in the 3rd round it looks like it’s an ongoing problem. I don’t know what defines Wu as a fighter. Is she a grappler that was outclassed by Mazany? Is she a jiu jitsu specialist? She was pretty strong from the bottom at the end of the 3rd round vs. Mazany. What I can tell you is she is a tough fighter that has a good chin. Wu looks better at 125 lbs, she’s spent her career at 135 lbs and made her UFC debut against Mazany at 135 lbs. The women competing at 135 lbs in the UFC are much bigger than Wu. Wu looks like she is a counter puncher in the stand up. She likes to deliver a stabbing kick once in awhile, but it looks like she does in fact want to grapple. She caught Mueller in an armbar from bottom position after being knocked down from a punch. I think I attribute that more to Mueller’s lack of jiu jitsu skill. Wu’s a young fighter with room to improve, but I don’t see any natural talent that says she is any sort of threat in the UFC’s Flyweight division. Mizuki Inoue is filling in for this fight on about 3 weeks notice. She fights at 115 lbs but will weigh in at 125 lbs for this fight. In her Invicta fight with Lauren Alvarez she showed that she is a pressure fighter with jiu jitsu skills. She wrestled Alvarez to the ground and bested her on the ground winning by armbar in the 2nd round. Mizuki spent a lot of time on the bottom against Virna Jandiroba. Mizuki is an incredibly skilled fighting out of guard and she tends find herself on the bottom because of that. I think she feels comfortable there. Mizuki is more skilled than Jandiroba basically everywhere, but Jandiroba was the bigger, stronger fighter. Size matters in mma and this fight is a perfect example of a more skilled fighter losing to a bigger, stronger athlete. Mizuki should be in the UFC fighting at 115 lbs, she is really good. The Viviane Pereira fight showed how good she is when she’s fighting a women her size.
Prediction
This is a really hard fight to predict. Wu has shown that she likes to counter strike and engage in the clinch. She will have a significant size advantage over Mizuki. Mizuki has a very quick jab and 1–2 combination, but where she really excels is her jiu jitsu. Unfortunately she likes to be on her back and that doesn’t score points in mma unless you can finish the fight. But, Mizuki is one of those rare fighters that can be dangerous with strikes from her back. She’s capable of doing this because she controls her opponent so well in butterfly guard. How is this fight going to go? Wu’s size will dictate the grappling and I see Wu in top position for a lot of this fight. She won’t finish Mizuki in top position because Mizuki is very good from the bottom. There is a very real possibility Mizuki connects with an arm bar from bottom position. Unfortunately, I think that is her only method of victory because of the size differential. Wu wins this fight by decision.
Betting
Wu isn’t exactly an underdog at (-105). But I am surprised I thought she would be favored here. I think she will have a large size advantage here, but I just don’t think she’s very skilled as a fighter. I’m going to sit this one out. Mizuki makes me nervous, I was hoping she was going to be a big underdog and I could take a chance on her…..The line for Wu has shifted to (+120). (+120) is too much to pass up. Wu will have a size advantage and there is value here at (+120). Alright, I think there are 2 ways this fight can go. Wu sucks on her feet striking and she’s slightly better in top game. I think this fight spends a decent amount of time in Inoue’s guard and if she is to win I think she works and arm bar. Honestly, I should have pass on this fight, one girl is much bigger but sucks. The other girl is very skilled but small. Should have just passed.
- Wu Wins (+120) $10 to win $12
- Inoue Wins by submission (+500) $5 to win $25
Movsar Evloev (-950) vs. Zhenhong Lu (+625)
Movsar Evloev is an undefeated pressure takedown artist. He will engage in stand up to begin the round only to find an opening for his takedown. He then begins to pressure and smother his opponent. He has fought at 135 lbs in M-1 but this is his 2nd, 145 lbs fight in the UFC. Mike Grundy has been excused from this fight with an injury. I would think the UFC gets a replacement for this fight.
Prediction
The UFC will find a local replacement to fight Evloev. Evloev will win utilizing his pressure and takedowns. The UFC found a local replacement and Evloev will win.
Betting
Don’t bet this fight. Errrk (breaks slamming), turns out I am going to bet on this fight. I think Evloev is spending 90% on top of Lu and at (+425) I don’t hate the prospects of him slipping in a rear naked choke at some point in this fight.
- Evloev Wins by Submission (+425) $5 to win $21.25
Damir Ismagulov (-320) vs. Thiago Moises (+240)
Damir Ismagulov is a very skilled, technical striker. He showed in the Alex Gorgees fight he is a capable takedown artist. I like a fighter that has the combination of good striking and takedowns, it makes their opponent have multiple threats to think about. Ismagulov showed good fight IQ when he didn’t shoot for takedowns against the submission specialist, Joel Alvarez. Thiago Moises was dominated by Beneil Dariush in the grappling and lost. He pulled guard and went for a couple guillotines but they didn’t work….they never work. Moises had a much better performance against Kurt Holobaugh. He showed he was dangerous on his feet and also shot well timed takedowns. He won the grappling exchanges and showed he’s a dangerous fighter on his feet. Holobaugh isn’t as quality of an opponent compared to Dariush but it was an impressive performance.
Prediction
This is a hard fight to predict. The last time I tried to predict if an M-1 guy with 2 UFC fights could stop the take down, Gilbert Burns got 2 takedowns and won a 2–1 decision. I haven’t seen Ismagulov compete against a grappler in the UFC. Both of his UFC opponents have taken the fight on short notice. He faced a submission specialist in Alvarez but Alvarez didn’t have the capability to take him down. I do know that Ismagulov has very technical striking. Moises has impressive striking he showed against Holobaugh and I don’t think this will be a mismatch in the stand up. If you can answer the question, will Moises have success taking Ismagulov to the ground, you know who’s going to win this fight. If Moises has success with takedowns he wins a 2–1 decision. If he can’t take Ismagulov to the ground, Ismagulov’s striking is better. I think Moises needs to have success on his feet to disguise his takedowns because he’s not a proficient wrestler. Ismagulov’s striking and 4 inch reach advantage doesn’t allow Moises to have success on the feet. Ismagulov wins a decision.
Betting
Moises has the skills to win this fight and (+240) is a really good price for him. If you’re reading this grab (+240) before the line decreases.
- Moises wins (+240) $10 to win $24
Kai Kara-France (-210) vs. Mark De La Rosa (+170)
Kai Kara-France likes to stand in front of his opponent and box. He had some scary moments against Elias Garcia, he was dropped by a left hand in the 1st round and caught in a triangle in the 2nd. Beyond those 2 awful moments he dominated the fight. He showed good cardio and he is violent with his hands, he wants to finish fights. I thought France was exposed for being a one dimensional fighter against Raulian Paiva. Paiva’s leg kicks were effective and he did win some grappling situations. France was probably fortunate to come away with a victory. France and De La Rosa have a mutual opponent in Elias Garcia. France was a threat to Elias with his boxing, I thought De La Rosa executed more of a grappling heavy game plan against poor Elias. De La Rosa’s excellent jiu jitsu showed in this victory. De La Rosa showed he doesn’t like to shoot double legs, he likes to initiate takedowns from the clinch. When he gets the fight to the ground his jiu jitsu is excellent. His boxing was also on display in a convincing victory over Joby Sanchez. It should be noted that the Sanchez fight was at 125 lbs. De La Rosa was over matched by a much stronger Alex Perez at 135 lbs. He was wrestled to the ground and took a lot of damage through ground and pound. On the feet he handled himself boxing with Perez but the clinch brought him to the ground. 125 lbs is the weight class for De La Rosa.
Prediction
Kara-France is the better boxer and if the fight stays on the feet I see him winning pretty easily. De La Rosa can handle himself well in a stand up fight utilizing his leg kicks and his left hand but he will need to take this fight to the ground to have success. Can De La Rosa take this fight to the ground? The answer is, I’m not sure. If De La Rosa had a wrestling background and was prone to shoot well timed doubles I would be more inclined to think this fight goes to the mat. De La Rosa has a jiu jitsu background and tends to grapple against the fence as a means to taking his opponent down. I do think that Kara-France will have the strength advantage and it won’t be an easy task grappling him as a means to take the fight to the ground. I’m going to give a slight edge to Kara-France in this fight, I think he’s capable of grappling enough to keep the fight standing and fight where he wants to fight, in the middle of the octagon. Kai Kara-France wins this fight with a 2nd round knockout.
Betting
I don’t like the odds for this fight. I don’t think De La Rosa will be able to clinch because of France’s boxing and he doesn’t shoot double legs.
•Pass
Su Mudaerji (+145) vs. Andre Soukhamthath (-185)
In a way, I was impressed with Su Mudaerji in his UFC debut. He fought a fighter in Louis Smolka who is a grappling jiu jitsu guy looking to take him down. The Chinese, the Koreans, the fighters coming from Africa, and probably a couple other areas I can’t think of right now tend to have a hard time grappling, wrestling and with jiu jitsu. I thought Su did a fine job thwarting Smolka’s takedown attempts in the beginning. Unfortunately, Smolka was relentless and exposed Su’s weakness on the ground winning by submission. Soukhamthath is a counter puncher with plenty of UFC experience. He’s most well known for being the fighter Sean O’Malley broke his leg against.
Prediction
I crept to the depth of the internet to find Su Mudaerji’s WLF W.A.R.S fights. Every symbol on the website was a Chinese symbol, I was scared watching but I got it done. If I’m going to call myself The Fight Guy, I gotta do fight guy stuff. Su Mudaerji’s mma record tells a very accurate story, he knocks you out or you take him to the ground and win the fight. Watching the WLF W.A.R.S. tapes I am going to double down on Mudaerji’s striking, he will walk Soukhamthath down in this fight unless Soukhamthath can gain some respect. I do think this fight is going to take place on the feet, and I do think Soukhamthath’s only path to victory is taking this fight to the mat. I didn’t really get a chance to evaluate Su’s striking in the Smolka fight because he was on his back. Unless Soukhamthath takes this fight to the ground Su Mudaerji wins by knockout in the 2nd round.
Betting
It’s tough to bet on a fighter that has a glaring weakness. If I knew about this fight when the opening line of (+175) was available I may have taken a shot at that.
- Pass
Park Jun-Yong (+170) vs. Anthony Hernandez (-230)
Park Jun-Yong has punching skills. He fights for different organizations over in Asia at 170 lbs and 185 lbs. This bout will take place at 185 lbs. In Anthony Hernandez’s 2 UFC appearances he’s shown a strong right hand. He hasn’t shown any offensive wrestling ability but that’s okay, it doesn’t look like Park Jun-Yong wants to take this fight to the ground.
Prediction
Both of these men are interested in standing in the center of the octagon and striking. I don’t know who is going to win but I do know this fight will not last the 3 rounds it’s schedule for. Everyone set your alarms for 3am you won’t want to miss this one.
Betting
Park Jun-Yong has more experience than Hernandez. Hernandez only has a right hand and 1 fight with the UFC. I think Park Jun-Yong is worth a play here at (+170). I bet Jun-Yong because the value was good. I think I underestimated hernandez and I am nervous about Jun-Yong. I made a bet to cancel out my Jun-Yong wager because the line guaranteed me a small victory and I don’t have to worry about Hernandez winning now.
- Jun-Yong wins (+170) $10 to win $17
- Hernandez wins (-155) $17 to win $11
