UFC Singapore
UFC Boston Recap
- The fans need a Jeremy Stephens and Yair Rodriguez 5 round rematch
- The referees in Boston were tremendous
- Weidman should probably call it quits
- Dominick Reyes looks to be the next Jon Jones challenger
- Greg Hardy’s UFC career has effectively ended if he can’t fight without having asthma attacks
- Maycee Barber is good and may hurt Paige Vanzant
- The judges scored damage over takedowns, love it
- Sean “Brick House” Brady and Brendan Allen are names to remember
Ben Askren (-185) Vs. Demian Maia (+160)
Demian Maia is a one dimensional striker. He throws a decent left hand set up by an obligatory right jab. Maia is a Jiu Jitsu wizard. Maia wants to shoot for a single leg on your lead leg and embark on a grappling affair. More often than not Maia finds himself hanging from his opponent’s back trying to choke them out. He’s earned the nickname, “human backpack.” Maia is 41 years old and his cardio looks to be that of a 41 year old.
Ben Askren has fought twice in the UFC and in both fights he has been unconscious. Off the top of my head, I cannot think of a single UFC fighter, past or present, male or female, who has worse striking than Ben Askren. Askren enters the octagon in a metaphorical singlet and wrestles. He’s very good at it. Askren compliments his high level wrestling with an excellent ground game. I need to mention that Ben Askren used to fight for ONE and basically lived in Singapore, it’s not an accident he’s headlining this card.
Prediction
Demian Maia has a striking advantage in this fight and that feels weird to say. Wrestling dictates fights but Deron Winn showed in Boston, wrestling doesn’t win fights. The more I think about the fight the more advantages I see for Demian Maia. Maia has a clear striking advantage, size, and Maia has better jiu jitsu, but Askren has better wrestling and better cardio. I would be naive if I thought Maia wasn’t going to be taken down by Askren. I would also be naive to say Maia doesn’t present a threat to Askren working from his guard. Askren has Gerald Meerschaert at Rufusport to work with. Meerschaert has a very good guard, but Maia is as high level as you can get. There is another adage of MMA, “When two high level grapplers fight, more often than not, it’s a bad kickboxing match.” Maybe this turns into a kickboxing match and Maia starches Askren with a head kick? Wouldn’t that be something. One thing I would like to say is something I learned from my friend Rico at work. Rico is a wrestling coach and he likes MMA so I talk to him all the time. We were talking about Khabib and he said the way you beat Khabib is by wrestling him in the center of the octagon, not against the fence. The clinch position against the fence is not wrestling, it’s unique to MMA. I feel like that clinch position against the fence could be in Demian Maia’s favor in this fight. I just thought that was an interesting aside that relates to this fight. Push comes to shove, I think Askren survives Maia’s guard and wins a decision. But it wouldn’t surprise me to see Maia’s hand raised when this thing is over.
Betting
This is a 50/50 fight. If you are one of those people who thinks you’re just sooooooo good at gambling, and you make soooooo much money, and you try and sell your premium picks, well Maia +150 is this week’s premium pick. It’s a close fight, Maia’s an underdog, it’s a good bet (shrug).
- Maia Wins (+150) $10 to win $15
Michael Johnson (-350) Vs. Stevie Ray (+285)
Stevie Ray is a Scottish southpaw. Ray is undersized for 155 lbs and struggles to find his boxing range against longer opponents. I like his left lower leg kick as a tool to close the distance against longer opponents. Stevie has a pretty good ground game, and I would imagine he’s going to try and use that for this fight. Ray isn’t a wrestler, so he will have trouble taking the fight to the ground but he is decent in the clinch against the fence. 4 months ago he suffered a violent flash knockout.
Michael Johnson’s game is backing up and pulling you into a straight left hand. His hands are fast and his boxing is very good. He’s not unfamiliar with the ground game or grappling but his game is measuring distance and boxing. He was also victim to a violent knockout a couple months ago.
Prediction
Michael Johnson’s boxing and 3 inch reach advantage are the difference in this fight. Johnson wins the 1st round because he uses his reach and lands his left hand. The 2nd and 3rd rounds are close but Johnson wins a comfortable decision in Singapore.
Betting
Michael Johnson being a -350 favorite is banana lands. I think Stevie Ray is a “good bet” at +285 but he probably loses. I’m not a big fan of betting on a guy I think will lose. It looks like Michael Johnson is now -270 and Stevie Ray is +230. There is still nothing to see here. This is a silly co-main event, but I am going to make it interesting. Again, if you are one of those guys who’s just sooooooo good at gambling, and you are sooooooo profitable long term, this is not going to be one of your premium picks of the week. Having said that, I don’t like what I see from Michael Johnson’s Instagram. He’s talking about his journey and hard paths lead to brighter futures or something. The guy’s fight career has not gone well the past 6 or 7 fights. Stevie Ray’s hasn’t either but MJ is jumping up to 155 lbs. Sometimes when you jump up to a higher weight class you’re not used t carrying that extra weight and fatigue becomes more of an issue than you thought it would. I’m not saying this is likely to happen, but I scrolled through the odds and the 2 odds that stood out for me are Ray wins by submission and Ray wins in round 3. I like the idea of this fight getting to the 3rd round and Stevie Ray catching a kick, taking a tired Michael Johnson to the ground and choking him out. “Fatigue makes cowards of us all.” My gut highlighted these when I looked at the odds for this fight, gunna go with the gut here.
- Stevie Ray Wins by Submission (+1600) $2.5 to win $80
- Stevie Ray Wins in Round 3 (+2500) $2.5 to win $62.50
Beneil Dariush (-165) vs. Frank Camacho (+145)
Beneil Dariush is 5'10" with a 72" reach and is one of those jiu jitsu wizards. While Dariush has tremendous jiu jitsu, he can have trouble taking the fight to the ground. But, if Dariush does find top position or your back he is a threat to finish the fight. Dariush’s striking defense is a serious problem. If the fight hits the 2nd round look for Dariush to slow down. Dariush’s takedown defense is not great. If a wrestler feels comfortable in his guard, Dariush can easily lose a round on his back.
Frank Camacho, I believe, lives in Singapore. He’s 5"10" with a 70" reach, carries power in his hands, and loves to get into fist fights. Frank is actually a jiu jitsu guy that fell in love with punching. Damien Brown literally said, “He feels like a middleweight” after the 1st round. But, to be fair, Frank did miss weight by 5 lbs so he was much bigger. Frank did not have trouble making weight and looks good to go for Saturday. Camacho loves to use trips from the clinch. Normally, Frank’s coaches try to reel him in from getting into fist fights, but for this fight, getting into a fist fight is the gameplan. At 170 lbs Frank has a tendency to get tired in the 2nd round, but his cardio has looked better at 155 lbs. Frank has good takedown defense and it was tested in the Drew Dober fight. I do think Frank is susceptible to a left head kick because he can have tunnel vision for having a fist fight with a boxing guard.
Prediction
Early in the 1st round we will find out who dictates this fight, and consequently, who will win the fight. Beneil Dariush likes to fight a technical fight, Frank Camacho likes to brawl. If Dariush is commanding the center of the octagon walking Camacho down, thats a bad sign for the guys who bet Camacho. If Camacho lands a couple heavy punches early, I think this is a short night for Dariush. Dariush will have trouble taking Camacho down. If Dariush cannot take Camacho down, he won’t win this fight. Camacho’s advantage in this fight is on the feet. Camacho carries a lot of power in his hands and he loves to fist fight. Dariush slows down in the 2nd round and likes to fight on the ground. I think that’s a recipe for a 2nd round knockout for Frank “The Crank” Camacho. If this was the Dariush that fought Edson Barboza, I’d pick Dariush, but Dariush is on his way out and doesn’t look like the same fighter.
Betting
Frank Camacho is a good bet at +145. I don’t see Dariush taking Camacho down to impose his jiu jitsu.
- Camacho Wins (+145) $15 to win $21.75
Ciryl Gane (-350) vs. Don’Tale Mayes (+300)
Don’Tale Mayes is a 3 time Contender Series veteran. What that tells me is the UFC heavyweight division is shallow, and on two occasions the UFC decided this kid isn’t good enough, but we’ll give him a chance to get better. I do think Mayes looked the best in his most recent Contender Series performance, and that's obviously why he's getting a shot in the UFC. There are a lot of faults in Mayes’ game but the fault that stands out first is the cardio problem. Mayes’ cardio is terrible even for heavyweight standards. If the fight goes to the 2nd round, he’s a zombie. I don’t recognize the gym he trains out of so it’s hard to rely on Mayes getting significantly better. His takedown defense is not good which isn’t a good sign because being on your back is probably the quickest avenue to fatigue town. Mayes is also not great at jiu jitsu, he’s a really raw fighter. So why is Mayes here? Well, the heavyweight division needs bodies and Mayes is a big strong dude that can throw a punch and is capable of knocking someone out. I like his hammer fists from the clinch when he gets tied up. I usually don’t like strikes during takedown defense because it puts you off balance but I think Mayes is going down anyways so with his size it’s probably worth the risk. I also like how Mayes switches stances. He will switch to a southpaw stance and throw a left hand. Like I said, Mayes is a big, strong, dude. With all this training and jiu jitsu class sometimes MMA boils down to which dude with his shirt of can hit the other dude with his shirt off in the face. Mayes is 6'6" with an 82" reach, and he is capable of hitting a shirtless dude in the face. I feel like it’s one of those +300 underdog situations. Maybe +240 because they’re heavyweights.
Ciryl Gane fights out of the MMA Factory in France. A couple fighters that have won recently fight out of that gym, Francis N’Gannou, Veronica Macedo, well I guess that’s it, but still, some success. Gane finds his distance in the 1st round and lands his jab and his right hand. He’s a very skilled striker. He moves well and fights behind his jab. He has shown counter striking capabilities and has a very athletic build for 6'5" 83" reach. In his last fight he submitted Raphael Pessoa but it looked like Pessoa wanted out. There wasn’t much, if any, resistance to that head and arm choke from the jiu jitsu guy. I haven’t seen Gane’s cardio tested but i’d be willing to bet it’s better than Mayes’.
Prediction
I don’t think there is an aspect of this fight where I give Mayes an edge over Gane. It’s possible Mayes switching stances and throwing a left hand catches Gane off guard but I highly doubt it. Gane is such a technical striker I feel like this fight goes 2 rounds. Gane knows the cardio is his friend, he’s not going to rush for the knockout shot unless it comes. It may come in the form of a counter punch because Mayes is going to try and swing. Gane fights very technically and won’t rush the finish. He will finish Mayes in the 2nd round by knockout.
Betting
I don’t even hate the -350 for this fight because Gane is so much more skilled that Mayes. This will be striking affair and betting -350 on a heavyweight is not my style. I will say this, I wouldn’t be surprised if Gane is a -400 or higher when the fight rolls around. -350 might be a decent parlay piece.
- Pass
Muslim Salikov vs. Laureano Staropoli
Muslim Salikov has over 100 confirmed professional knockouts. That is unbelievable. He’s 5'11" with a 70" reach and can struggle against longer fighters. I hear a lot of, “Salikov doesn’t have a lot of output” but I think a lot of that has to do with fighting longer fighters. Salikov is a fantastic counter puncher and reads his opponents striking very well. He throws a spinning kick to the gut and will throw it high to the head to catch his opponent looking low. He has good takedown defense and is very good at getting to his feet if he is taken down. The guy has 90 knockouts on his resume, he has power. I actually wrote one of these for Abu Dhabi so check that out and see if what I said back then matches up with my assessment for Singapore.
Laureano Staropoli is 6'1" with a 71" reach. He comes out of the gate very aggressive firing a lot of different strikes from both southpaw and orthodox stances. He does favor the southpaw stance. There is no remarkable wrestling/grappling/jiu jitsu apart of his game. He does tend to slow down in the 2nd round probably because he is so aggressive in the 1st round. Not a major cardio issue, but it is noticeable. He likes to throw a flying knee from his southpaw stance.
Prediction
I’m going to lead with the lead here. Salikov has over 100 confirmed knockouts counting kickboxing and MMA. He’s a confirmed killer. He does not have trouble with a jubilant kick boxing Italian-Argentinian. As to how the fight is going to go, Salikov takes inventory for the majority of the 1st round and starts to land a couple damaging punches towards the end of the 1st round. The 2nd round we start to see Salikov’s spinning back kicks land to the midsection of Staropoli. Staropoli will start to tire and Salikov wins this fight by knockout at the end of the 2nd round or the 3rd round.
Betting
Nothing really stands out as a good value bet. I like Salikov to win the fight but I do think he’s going to take inventory in the 1st round possibly allowing him to lose the fight. If Salikov falls to -130 I think there is value in that bet but I don’t think it’s a good idea to lay -160 on a fighter who I think will be passive to begin the 1st round taking inventory. I actually don’t hate a draw here at +8500. I can imagine a scenario where Salikov dominates the 3rd round but loses the first 2 rounds in a point fight. I’m going to go with it.
- Salikov/Staropoli Draw (+8500) $5 to win $425
**********I did not research any of the prelim fights mostly because I’m working nights at the hospital and will only be home for the main card**********
