UFC Tampa Bay
UFC Australia Recap
- A couple weeks ago I said breast implants are not a good sign for Joanna Jedrzejczyk’s 115 lbs career. Not because of the mass, but the motivation to fighting it showed. There was a news report Joanna let the UFC know she wasn’t going to make weight. Angela “La Flama Blanca” Hill took it upon herself to tee one up from the ladies tees with this unreal tweet
- Israel Adesanya had a fantastic performance and he is the new poster man for the UFC.
Marlon “Chito” Vera (-170) vs. Andre Ewell (+150)
Marlon “Chito” Vera has 13 fights in the UFC as a 26 year old. His last 6 wins in the UFC came inside the distance. Vera is skilled striking at distance, specifically his kicks. He carries good size for the 135 lbs division and obviously carries power and an ability to finish opponents. I do think a decent wrestler puts “Chito” Vera on his back.
Andre Ewell is a southpaw and has a very dangerous left hand. He will also have a reach advantage. His jiu jitsu is terrible for UFC standards and he is not a good wrestler. Boxing is what Ewell does and he is dangerous with his left hand. His right lead leg is open to being kicked with leg kicks. Ewell has a 75 inch reach which helps make his left hand dangerous. If you can put Ewell on his back with wrestling, he’s a fish out of water. Ewell tends to move around the perimeter and look for openings for his left hand.
Prediction
“Chito” Vera will take the center of the octagon and focus on kicking Ewell’s lead leg. There is a 5 inch reach advantage for Ewell so he is always dangerous with his boxing but “Chito” Vera controls distance with his kicking in this fight. “Chito” Vera has a significant advantage with the wrestling/grappling/jiu jitsu. If “Chito” Vera has success kicking Ewell’s lead leg he wins a comfortable decision. Ewell’s movement won’t allow a finish in that scenario. If this somehow turns into a brawl with the fighters exchanging punches, Ewell has a very good chance of winning. But every time I think about this fight I think of the term, “Puncher’s Chance” because there is only one way for Ewell to win this fight. Ewell has one skill, you can’t step into the UFC octagon with one skill anymore, “Chito” Vera wins a decision.
Betting
I want to bet “Chito” Vera. I have a feeling people are going to bet Andre Ewell because they love his reach. I plan on betting “Chito” Vera around -130 if that becomes available closer to fight time. “Chito” is -155, I am going to wait but that is still a good bet.
- “Chito” Vera Wins (-155) $15 to win $10
JJ Aldrich (-165) vs. Lauren Mueller (+145)
JJ Aldrich spent her professional career at 115 lbs but recently made the jump to 125 lbs. She struggled to make weight at 115 lbs but is undersized at 125 lbs. This fight will take place at 125 lbs. Aldrich is a southpaw that is a very good boxer. She can be hit but is also a very capable counter puncher. When reach is on her side Aldrich utilizes her jab effectively and she’s very good at finding her range. She can be hit but is also willing to take a punch to give a punch. This caused her problems in her lone fight at 125 lbs vs. Maycee Barber, she was the more skilled fighter but Maycee carried more power and clipped her in a fight she was winning. Boxing and cardio are Aldrich’s strengths, she finishes 3 round fights strong. Pressuring her opponent is when Aldrich is at her best, but she needs to find success on her feet before she can walk her opponent down. Her wrestling, grappling, and jiu jitsu are not Aldrich’s strengths but she doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses. She trains with “Thug Rose” so she probably gets good looks in the gym. Aldrich has developed a good habit of countering kicks with punches which is always an effective technique. Hopefully her second fight at 125 lbs will fare better than her first.
Lauren Mueller fights out of Alliance Gym and she has improved with each fight in the UFC. What’s also interesting about Lauren Mueller fighting out of Alliance is she was apart of that crew that went down to Zacatecas to train at elevation. One of Mueller’s biggest strengths is her cardio and her ability to be very dangerous in the 3rd round. Training at Zacatecas will only help that endurance. When Lauren Mueller is at her best she is pressuring and overwhelming her opponent. Mueller is not afraid to take a punch to give a punch and find her range, she also has a good chin and head movement helps Mueller find her range. Because of her boxing style she is heavy on her lead leg, her opponents would be wise to attack with calf kicks. Mueller is not refined as a mixed martial artist, her wrestling has improved, she does okay not being taken down in the clinch against the fence. I have not seen her jiu jitsu improve since she was arm bared by Yanan Wu. Mueller has been hurt with a liver kick and recovered in 2 of her last 3 fights. In her most recent Instagram picture Mueller has a wrap in her left foot at her gym. She has previously shattered her ankle in a motocross accident, I wouldn’t be surprised if that was the same ankle.
Prediction
This is a good fight, Aldrich is the better boxer but Mueller is more determined to walk forward and will have a slight size advantage. Neither woman will have a reach advantage which makes this opening bell boxing battle really interesting. I think Mueller will take octagon control early in the 1st round and use her head movement to find her range. Aldrich will connect with counter punches and win the 1st round on the merit, more effective striking. Mueller is really strong on her front leg and even though Aldrich isn’t a kicker, I expect her to be prepared to throw some inside leg kicks out of the southpaw stance. Mueller has the size advantage in this fight, I wouldn’t be surprised to see her win clinches against the fence and maybe take the fight to the ground with double underhooks. The 2nd round will decide this fight. There is a reasonable argument that says Mueller’s size advantage wears on Aldrich and Mueller walks her down with crashing punches in the 2nd round. There is also a reasonable argument that says Aldrich is the more skilled boxer and doesn’t have a cardio issue so why would the 2nd round be any different than the 1st round? I do think Mueller wins the 3rd round, showcasing her size advantage complemented by her excellent cardio.. The 2nd round is really up for debate. There is also a possibility that Mueller catches Aldrich with a punch that stuns her, and either ends the fight or wins her a round. Mueller’s chin has been tested at 125 lbs, Aldrich’s has not. For this prediction, I will say that big punch happens in the 2nd round, stealing the round. Mueller wins a decision, she loses the 1st round, catches Aldrich with a big punch in the 2nd and nearly finishes the fight in the 3rd round.
Betting
I don’t hate a bet on Mueller in this position, I absolutely would not bet Aldrich. I’m really close to putting a bet on Mueller but I just can’t seem to pull the trigger…I pulled the trigger. This is a 50/50 fight, Mueller at underdog odds is a good bet. She had a little trouble weighing in but she looked good when she was on the scale. If you want to have some fun, Mueller wins in the 3rd round is at +2150
- Mueller Wins (+145) $10 to win $14.50
- Mueller Wins in Round 3 (+2150) $3 to win $64.50
Marvin Vettori (-280) vs. Andrew Sanchez (+240)
Andrew Sanchez is a wrestler that is capable of striking. He looks to have had a cardio issue gassing out in the 1st round vs. Ryan Janes but I haven’t noticed anything similar since he switched to Tristar. I specifically remember his corner telling him things between rounds that show he has addressed his cardio problem very directly. He does struggle against body kicks.
Marvin Vettori fought the UFC’s new poster boy, Israel Adesanya to a close decision in a fight that was all striking. That’s a good fight to revisit if you want to bet Paulo Costa vs Izzy. Vettori has good takedown defense. He lost to Footface a couple fights back but he showed well. Since then Vettori has shown all the signs of a young hungry fighter improving with each fight. Vettori has power and his cardio passes the 3rd round test. This kid is good, I wouldn’t be surprised if he fights his way to the top 5 in the next couple years.
Predictions
Sanchez will come into this fight with the idea of wrestling Vettori. Vettori’s takedown defense and overall grappling ability is enough to stifle Sanchez’s wrestling. Vettori walks Sanchez down for the majority of the fight and catches him with his left hand. It wouldn’t surprise me to see that left body kick in play in this fight. Vettori wins by 2nd round knockout.
Betting
-280 is a little steep for me to bet, but I actually don’t think it’s a bad bet, it’s just not my style to bet on a -300 fighter.
- Pass
Deiveson Figueiredo (-190) vs. Tim Elliot (+165)
Deiveson Figueiredo is an accomplished jiu jitsu fighter, he is most comfortable on the ground. He is a submission first fighter and I have seen about 7 guillotine attempts from him studying his fights, he likes the guillotine. Beyond the guillotine, he is a submission first guy, in top position his “ground and pound” isn’t going to knock a guy out, he wants to find a submission because that is what is natural to him. I have actually seen him attack a guillotine from top position. He does have decent size for the 125 lbs division but he also has a hard time making weight. I think there is a 3rd round cardio issue in there somewhere but it hasn’t really showed itself on tape. I don’t like Figueiredo’s striking from top position or from standing up, but with the amount of UFC fighters he has hurt or knocked out with his standup it’s hard to say that’s a rational opinion. It is also fair to say his striking and his mixed martial arts skills in general has evolved with each fight, he looked very good in his last fight. Figueiredo has good takedown defense but I think an accomplished wrestler can take him down…So Fight Pass does this thing where you search a fighter’s name and they sometimes won’t list all of the fights the fighter has fought. So I wrote that not having watching his last 2 fights. So now I have the opportunity to see if what I said was right 2 times. It looks like his striking has been refined, I am right that a high level wrestler can take him down and control top position to win a fight.
Tim Elliot last fought in the UFC almost 2 years ago. He was an All-American wrestler at Oklahoma and it shows in his fight game. He’s a southpaw fighter that is looking to take you down and have scrambling transitions while looking for submissions. He does have a good submission game on the ground, but I haven’t seen any impressive striking. His cardio looks pretty good.
Prediction
Figueiredo is a very accomplished jiu jitsu practitioner and his time at American Top Team has refined his mma skills. I don’t think Elliot will have success scrambling because of Figueiredo’s jiu jitsu ability. If Elliot had the gameplan, “I’m going in there, I’m finding top position and grinding out a decision, I would really like his chances. I don’t think Elliot is capable of ending this fight early either by submission or by knockout, that is his only path to victory. And I do think he is capable of it, but it’s just not how he fights. At least once Elliot will shoot for a single leg and Figueiredo will try and snatch a guillotine. I don’t care how long he’s been training at ATT the guy loves guillotines and won’t be able to help himself trying to end the fight with one. He’s not going to end the fight with guillotine and Elliot will find himself in top position. I hope he decides to hang out there and win rounds. At the end of the day, I think there is a real chance Figueiredo catches Elliot in a submission out of a scramble. Figueiredo wins this fight in the 2nd round by a rear naked choke.
Betting
I’m telling you, it’s almost like these people in Vegas know what they’re doing. I just looked at the line and -190 is just enough for me to pass because I do think there is a very reasonable path to victory for Elliot. If Elliot becomes a +200 underdog or if Figueiredo is a -150 favorite I think I’d bet those odds.
- Pass
Migel Baeza (-210) vs. Hector Aldana (+175)
Migel Baeza likes to hang around the perimeter and look for openings to land his right hand. He will occasionally throw a right body kick. He does have a boxing guard so he may find trouble guarding against a head kick. His wrestling/grappling/jiu jitsu game isn’t anything special for UFC standards. He is kind of one dimensional with his standup although he did hurt Victor Reyna from the clinch with a knee twice on the Contender Series. Baeza has poor defensive striking, he can be hit. This will be his UFC debut.
Hectar Aldana is an awesome Mexican fighter. That’s literally the first thing I wrote down in my notes. Aldana can catch a kick and throw you to the ground but he has no interest in the ground. He’s also very tough. He throws everything hard and likes to get into firefights in the center of the octagon. Aldana has a smaller frame for 170 lbs, his leg kicks are effective and help him touch his opponent when there is a significant reach disparity. I also saw him throw a switch left body kick that I really liked and thought could be effective in this fight. He’s been cut twice in 2 UFC fights. I was flirting with the idea that he has scar tissue issues but I think it’s just his style of fighting and Song Kenan not cutting his nails.
Predictions
I just put my protractor away, I measured the height and reach of both fighters checked the angles and I can confirm there is a “functional reach advantage” in this fight. Aldana did not fare well against the Argentinian's reach advantage, and size matters a lot in MMA. Baeza will have a size and reach advantage in this fight. Conventional wisdom looks at this fight and says, both fighters are standup fighters, one is aggressive, has 2 fights under his belt in the UFC, exceptionally tough, and carries a ton of power. The other fighter is making his UFC debut, gets hit a lot, does have a decent right hand but this one is too much for a young fighter. I’ll tell ya what, I think the UFC debutante is going to get a decision victory.
Betting
I thought I was going against the grain picking Baeza to win. Hectar Aldana is an underdog and I will take him at +175.
·Aldana Wins (+175) $10 to win $17.50
Alex Morano (+130) vs. Max Griffin (-150)
Alex Morano owns a BJJ gym, he likes BJJ. The Jordan Mein fight shows how much he loves BJJ. If you shoot on him he 100% will try for a guillotine. He can’t wrestle. His standup is wild. He will throw wild, winging punches, spinning back fists and mix in some leg kicks. His Asian corner man holding up an iPhone with a timer is the most token Asian thing a cornermen can do. I’m in a fight to the hypothetical death, exhausted, this isn’t class, give me simple instructions don’t show me how much time I have left to sit here. I don’t know seemed silly to me.
Max Griffin is a durable fighter, all the fights I have seen him in are 3 round damaging fights. He’s primarily a boxer that likes to work the perimeter and counter and he’s heavy on his lead leg. When he throws that popular calf kick it is with power, he’s not tickling you with that thing. I didn’t think he was any sort of wrestler after watching the Mike Perry fight, Mike Perry did mount him and almost had a body triangle, but fatigue could have played a part in that. He showed he’s a capable wrestler in the Zelim Imadaev fight. But he admitted that his arms got tired after the 1st round of wrestling Imadaev. Every fight I have seen Griffin is noticeably fatigued by the 3rd round, there is a cardio issue here. A little aside here, the Ref “Swaggy G” is growing on me. In the Imadaev fight he takes 1 point for the 1st fence grab offense. Awesome, I hope more refs do that. Also, I have seen a couple fighters get screwed by the refs in Brazil (Max Griffin vs. Thiago Alves and Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Jared Brooks), and I love how that white translator, who’s probably is a decedent of one of the Nazi’s who fled to Argentina, comes out with a stoic face in the midst of an awesome screwjob. He’s just ready, what would you like to say, nothing to see here.
Prediction
Morono has said he uses his BJJ to keep the fight standing. I have a feeling these two men are going to have a wild firefight in the 1st round and someone is going down. Or, If Griffin thinks he can hang in Morono’s guard the wrestling he showed in the Imadaev fight is a pretty easy path to victory. Morono has shown he’s okay working out of his full guard for an entire round. There is also a cardio issue for Griffin that needs to be taken into consideration. Morono can’t wrestle but if he “somehow” ends up on top in the 2nd or 3rd rounds and Griffin is tired from wrestling in the 1st round, he can control top position and there is a difference in their jiu jitsu abilities. Morono can pass guard, look for submissions or find full mount pretty easily against a fatigued Griffin. Griffin has a cardio issue, I marked it down in my notes. You know who else has noticed Griffin’s cardio issue? Max Griffin. He identified his problem and sought help. He has been working with “not” a navy seal, specifically, “@SwampCoach” on Instagram. If you think I am picking against the Swamp Coach, you are way off. Max Griffin comes into this fight with a wrestling gameplan and spends enough time in Morono’s full guard to win a decision. Apparently Max Griffin shared my little blog on his Facebook account which is pretty cool. The Swamp Coach is not a Navy Seal.
Betting
Morano is a wild swinger. I believe his belief is my jiu jitsu is a deterrent for people trying to take me down. Griffin is very durable, Mike Perry, Thiago Alves have had violent strikes and Griffin didn’t lose, I don’t think Morono knocks Griffin out. Griffin can counter well and his wrestling is much better than Morono’s because Morono has no wrestling. I think we are looking at Griffin taking Morono down and spending enough time in top position to win the fight. Griffin also could catch Morono with a counter punch and end the fight. Griffin wins at -150 is a good bet. I was flirting with Morono wins in Round 3 until I came across @SwampCoach.
- Griffin Wins (-150) $15 to win $10
- Griffin Wins in Round 3 a la the Swamp Coach (+1750) $2 to win $35
Thomas Gifford (+210) vs. Mike Davis (-270)
Thomas Gifford used to be a professional boxer. I remember watching Gifford live in his UFC debut against Roosevelt Roberts and thinking he was terrible. I don’t think he’s as bad after watching his debut over again. The first thing that stands out is Gifford’s heart. He tries hard, until the end. What that tells me is he’s working hard at his gym to get better. Rudy was offsides, effort doesn’t win fights. Gifford is in love with his jiu jitsu and I don’t think it is effective at the UFC level so he will tend to spend a lot of time in a losing MMA position. I saw him pull guillotine from the clinch that didn’t have much of a chance and put him in a losing MMA position. Gifford isn’t a good wrestler but does have a 75 inch reach at 155 lbs which is impressive. Roosevelt Roberts had a very interesting move, he gave Gifford the middle finger in top position at the end of the 2nd round and initiated the glove touch to begin the 3rd. I’m not sure that’s ever been done before.
Mike Davis is a fantastic fighter. He has a wrestling background, he carries power in his punches and his kicks, he has a nice little ? kick. His cardio looks good, and I even like his jiu jitsu against Gilbert Burns. I have no idea who Dana White didn’t sign both Sodiq Yusuff and Mike Davis after that Contender Series fight, unreal fight. Why didn’t Bellator or ONE sign this Mike Davis? No idea but he’s taking this fight on 4 days notice. His one fault is I think he is a little heavy on his front leg. Leg kicks won that fight for Sodiq.
Prediction
Even on four days notice, I don’t see many other outcomes for this fight, Mike Davis walks down Gifford for the entirety of this fight. Gifford would be wise to test that lead leg with kicks but I don’t think it will be enough. Davis wins this fight by KO in the 2nd round.
Betting
It’s not my style to bet -270 on a fighter taking a fight on 4 days notice. But I also ordered jean shorts that came today and I’m pumped about them. I really don’t see how Mike Davis loses this fight, even on 4 days notice before the weigh ins happen this is a good bet, Mike Davis at -270. I’m interested to see the prop bets on this one.
- Mike Davis Wins $27 to win $10
Ryan Spann (-145) vs Devin Clark (+125)
Ryan Spann is 6 foot 5 with a 79 inch reach at 205 lbs. Jason Herzog did a fantastic job noticed Spann was hurt in his first Contender Series appearance. I wasn’t impressed with Spann’s chin in that 1st round loss. Spann likes the guillotine choke and his long arms help with the guillotine. I can see Spann getting taken down from shots because he’s trying to lock in a guillotine instead of fighting the shot. That reach advantage helps make a fantastic jab and 1–2 combination. Spann isn’t bad at getting up from guard after being taken down. His wrestling isn’t great I feel like trips work well at taking Spann down. He has a cardio problem and has made improvements from fight to fight.
Devin Clark has a wrestling background and he will use it. He’s a little undersized for 205 lbs but that’s okay. There is a little big of a cardio issue and he carries power in his hands.
Prediction
This fight already happened, Devin Clark vs. Mike Rodriguez. Clark will implement his wrestling because wrestling is Spann’s weakness. I think we are looking at a one sided wrestling match, Clark wins a decision. Looks like Clark has been working with Bones Jones to simulate the length of Spann, Clark shouldn’t have a problem implementing his wrestling here. Possible knockout in the 3rd because I don’t trust Spann’s chin.
Betting
Looks like Clark’s an underdog so I am going to take him. Nothing tremendously attractive among the props.
- Clark Wins (+125) $10 to win $12.50
- Clark Wins in Round 3 (+1700) $2 to win $34
Eryk Anders (-160) vs. Gerald Meerschaert (+140)
Eryk Anders is one of my favorite fighters. I saw him fight Lyoto Machida, thought he got screwed on a Brazilian decision and next thing I know he’s taking short notice fights against Thiago Santos at 205. Finally Anders has come back to 185 where he belongs. The Elephant in the room is he’s had his butt kicked by Thiago Santos and Khalil Rountree. We don’t know how much those two fights have taken out of him. Anders has a strong left hand, good defensive wrestling, and very tough.
Gerald Meeschaert is a grappling specialist. He’s willing to pull guard and have success sweeping his opponents into dominant grappling positions.
Predictions
I don’t really know how this is going to go. Anders will have an advantage on the feet, but can Meerschaert take this fight to his world. The only opponent Anders has had that’s similar is Vinicius Moreira and he has shown he isn’t a UFC level fighter. I am going to take Eryk Anders by KO because he’s one of my favorite fighters. If you are disappointed for no better explanation than that, I’m sorry running behind this week.
Betting
I’m not going to bet this, I am going to root for my guy. There is a lot of unknown in this fight, hard to have a strong opinion on it. Nothing looks inciting for the props. Those darn Vegas people did it again, seems like they know what's going on.
- Pass
Luis Pena vs. Matt Frevola
Matt Frevola’s right hand kind of reminds me with his training buddy, Al Iaquinta. He can be hit with elbows from the clinch. He’s a little bit undersized for the 155 lbs division but he has really good cardio and pressures his opponents with it. He likes his right body kick, he's a pretty good wrestler and he knows what he's doing in top position, submissions and strikes. The guy is tough and has heart, that Lando Vannata fight was violent.
Luis Pena has a 75 inch reach advantage which is long for 155 lbs. I think he is good out of the clinch with knees and elbows. Pena seems to engage and win a lot of scramble situations. He’s a southpaw fighter that prefers to box and his left hand is benefited by the 75 inch reach. He can be hindered by inside leg kicks from an orthodox fighter. I kind of get the impression that Pena is a mental midget. He loses to Michael Triziano at 155 lbs and his next step is taking a 145 lbs fight and missing weight. I haven’t really seen him finish a fight well, he seems to fade in the 3rd round. If you google “Luis Pena” one of the top stories is, “Luis Pena claims his mental game is next level.” That’s exactly what a mental midget does, goes out of his way to claim how strong he is.
Prediction
I do think a good wrestler like Frevola can take Pena down. I also think Frevola can attack Pena’s right lead leg with an inside leg kick. If this fight stays on the feet I’m pretty confident Pena wins a decision. If Frevola has success with takedowns and inside leg kicks he wins this fight. I’m burying the lead by saying Pena will have a massive size advantage in this fight. His reach will help with his boxing. Pena also scrambles effectively, Frevola will need to hold top position in order to win this fight. At the end of the day I am an attribute guy, I have to take the bigger guy but it wouldn’t surprise me to see Frevola win the 3rd round to win a 2–1 decision. Pena wins by decision.
Betting
Something about Pena worries me. It’s hard for me to bet on a -160 favorite with a pit in my stomach. I like Frevola’s cardio, wrestling, and right leg kicks, this is going to be a good fight. I was flirting with the Round 3 Frevola finish prop at +2100 but I think I’m just going to pass.
- Pass
Mackenzie Dern (-145) vs. Amanda Ribas (+125)
Mackenzie Dern had a baby in June, like 4 months ago. She apparently was asked to leave the MMA lab, she had some sort of weird accent controversy, she missed weight by 8 lbs in her most recent fight, she seems like something is a little off with her. But anyways, she doesn’t have good boxing defense, she can’t wrestle, she is extremely dangerous if she takes the fight to the ground, or finds top position, and she’s a wild puncher. You may see her go forward with what I refer to as, “crashing punches” running forward with oscillating left and right punches.
Amanda Ribas looked great in her UFC debut. Awesome jiu jitsu, good grappling, dominant fight. Amanda Ribas has been inactive for 2–3 years and she was suspended by USADA for steroids before she made her UFC debut. She trains at ATT, not too much more to go on.
Prediction
We have one girl who’s probably taken steroids (I guess her suspension was reduced for contaminated supplements blah blah blah) and looked impressive in her UFC debut. And another girl who’s a little bit crazy and just had a baby. No idea, Ribas looks to be a grappler, but that’s Dern’s world. Does she have the wrestling to keep the fight on the feet? Push comes to shove, I’m taking Ribas. Dern just had a baby 4 months ago. She will probably miss weight by 30 lbs, and I think she is still lactating. Ribas keeps the fight on the feet and wins by decision.
Betting
I don’t want to bet this fight, there is not enough information to make a reasonable decision. BUT…I’ll tell ya what, if you’re a degenerate gambler and I have a feeling that’s my primary audience Dern wins by KO at +1200 does stand out when I scrolled through the props. Dern is a nutcase, who’s to say she doesn’t miss weight by 30 lbs sit on this girl in full mount and swing her hands wildly until the fight is stopped. If not, it’s not like she’s going to stick and move, she’s going to throw wild right hands. For the sake of filling up my excel sheet, I’m taking it.
- Dern wins by KO (+1200) $5 to win $60
Kron Gracie vs. Cub Swanson
Kron Gracie is a jiu jitsu wizard. His objective in this fight will be to clinch and take you to the ground. He succeeded in doing so against Alex Caceres choking him out in the 1st round. There isn’t much tape to go off of, but this is a very cool fight, everyone loves the Gracie lineage.
Cub Swanson has been through so many violent fights from the WEC to the UFC, he’s not the same fighter he once was. He’s being beaten by the younger generation of fighters.
Prediction
Nothing on tape says he knows how to strike at all. You can’t step into the UFC octagon with one skill and win. I wouldn’t be surprised if Cub hits Kron Gracie in the face…a lot. I think Cub wins a decision here.
Betting
There isn’t enough information to bet this fight. Kron has spent 6 years in the Diaz’s basement, who knows what kind of striking he has these days.
- Pass
Niko Price vs. James Vick
Niko Price is a little heavy on his lead leg. He likes to begin the fight by countering with his right hand, moving away and pulling you into his power. Niko is a decent grappler, he doesn’t have urgency in his guard to get up, but none of his fights go the distance so why would he? He engages in a lot of scrambles and has success. He will look for the takedown, he tried to take Randy Brown to the ground, Niko is pretty good everywhere but he’s not a dominant UFC fighter. He does get hit a lot and he’s a little crazy.
James Vick is on a 3 fight losing streak at 155 lbs and is moving up to 170 lbs. It looks like he’s made one heck of a run and hit a wall. Maybe the weight cut is really hurting him as he has aged. Vick likes to fight at distance, he will try and use his long arms to snatch a guillotine if his opponent rushes in. He is very good in the clinch, gravity is on his side, tough to look up at a guy and win a clinch. He’s heavy on his lead leg and he likes his boxing more than his kicking. Paul Felder exposed Vick with Calf kicks.
Prediction
Niko likes to rush in on his opponents with punches, it wouldn’t surprised me to see Vick pull guillotine guard unsuccessfully and give Niko top position winning a round. I would like to see Niko attack Vick’s calf, there isn’t as much of a reach advantage now that Vick is at 170 lbs but there will be a reach advantage, those legs are there to be hit. I think the ground becomes a factor in this fight, Niko is a better grappler. This is a really tough one to predict and I know popular opinion is the fight isn’t going the distance and Niko may have never seen the final bell in his life but I kind of think Niko wins a decision here. It’s hard to knock guys out in the UFC, Niko uses hit better grappling and wins a decision.
Betting
This is such a suckers bet but I’m going to do it. Niko wins by decision at +1000. If this fight happens 10 times, one of them is Niko by decision, it’s hard to knock guys out in the UFC. People love over simplifying things and saying, “One of these guys is going to get knocked out” yea, well how? Neither guy wants to get hit. I’m probably going to lose but I think this is a good bet.
- Niko Price Decision (+1000) $5 to win $50
Joanna Jedrzejczyk (-335) Michelle Waterson (+300)
I am going to take a quote from last week’s write up and copy and paste it in here
“In the history of MMA, no fighter has ever succeeded having one foot out and one foot in. Ronda Rousey was dabbling in Hollywood and Holly Holm famously knocked her out as a +900 underdog, Tyron Woodley was releasing rap songs and Kamaru Usman took his belt, Karolina Kowalkiewicz talked about being a mother and her career took a nose dive, look up Joe Rogan telling Brendan Schaub to quit fighting..my point is you need to be 100% committed or you will get hurt. This fact has stood the test of time in MMA. You know what screams 75% committed?…Breast implants. Joanna Jedrzejczyk just got them. I don’t blame her for doing so, if it’s something she wants go for it. What I am saying is, this is not a good sign for her 115 lbs fighting career. Michelle “The Karate Hottie” Waterson has talked about the championship belt and being the 1st mother to be a champion. She had a back and forth with the UFC on getting a title shot. Joanna Jedrzejczyk is a number 1 contender fight for Waterson and she wants that title. Waterson is a +300 underdog right now and that’s a good bet. Apparently I’m betting $20 per fight this card so $20 on “The Karate Hottie” it is.”
- Michelle Waterson Wins (+300) $20 to win $60
