UFC @ the APEX
The UFC needs to decommission all large octagons and start producing these small octagons. Human beings have always been interested in violence. The Romans built the Coliseum to distract and pacify the masses. The put violence on display because people are infatuated with violence. When I watch hockey my wife wonders where the puck is. When I watch soccer my wife asks me what offsides is. She has never once asked the rules of fighting. Fighting is primal and if you’re in the business of selling violence, these small octagons produce more of what you’re selling. #ShrinkTheOctagon
Curtis Blaydes (-430) vs. Alexander Volkov (+350)
Things I Like
•Blaydes is a strong wrestler. Once he secures a takedown his top game is strong.
•This fight is going to be taking place at the APEX, the octagon is smaller which will give Blaydes a lot of opportunities to engage his takedown attempts.
•Blaydes is a tremendous wrestler. His wrestling threat opens up his striking. Specifically, an orthodox opponent will keep their left hand low leaving them open for a right hand.
Things I Don’t Like
•Junior Dos Santos stuffed the takedown. I know Blaydes KO’d JDS but Blaydes did not look comfortable striking after realizing he could not take JDS down.
•Blaydes shoots a lot of naked double legs. He needs to work on setting his takedowns up with his striking. At this level spamming double legs doesn’t work without setting them up with strikes.
•Blaydes mat returns a lot of his opponents by taking their back. Volkov’s height will make that difficult.
•Blaydes consistently weighs in around 260 lbs. That’s a lot of weight to carry around for a 5 round fight. He had trouble taking Justin Willis down in the 3rd round, Blaydes cardio could become a factor in this fight.
Things I Like
- You can’t teach size and Volkov is 6'7".
- Volkov is very good at using his reach and fighting behind the jab. His jab is his best fighting attribute.
- Don’t be fooled, Volkov has deceptive power. He does his best work when he traps his opponent against the fence.
- He has a good chin. Derrick Lewis did knock him out but if Derrick Lewis hits anyone on the chin, they’re going out.
- Volkov has a good habit of countering calf kicks with a punch to the face.
Things I Don’t Like
- Poor takedown defense. When you are gigantic it’s hard to coordinated your limbs. Roy Nelson got deep on his hips and Fabricio Werdum had success taking Volkov down. Volkov’s takedown defense is better against the fence, but he struggles to stop the takedown.
- Struve had success testing Volkov’s chin. Roy Nelson had some success landing on Volkov. He’s hard to reach, but he can be hit.
- Volkov keeps his hands low when he exits the clinch/defends the takedown.
Prediction
You can’t ignore the strength weakness relationship of Blaydes’ wrestling and Volkov’s poor takedown defense. Blaydes will take Volkov down in this fight. The question I have is, can Volkov get back up, and if he can, will Blaydes continue to be able to take Volkov down? Blaydes doesn’t do any of the Jiu Jitsu, he’s a pure wrestler. He wants to lay on you and make you tired. He makes his opponents work to get back up and mat returns them. I’m not sold on this idea that Blaydes is going to rag doll this gigantic Russian dude. I can see Blaydes successfully shooting a double leg, gravity is working in his favor for that. But when Volkov works his way back to his feet, I think Blaydes is going to have a heck of a time mat returning this gigantic Russian dude. He’s working against gravity and doesn’t have leverage, it’d be like lifting a baby Red Maple tree out of the ground after it’s roots fanned out. If this wrestling rag dolling plan doesn’t work out, Blaydes is in trouble. I don’t care that he knocked JDS out, Volkov is much better striker than Curtis Blaydes, and he’s putting Blaydes to sleep on the feet. Every MMA fan talks about Curtis Blaydes as if he’s Goliath from the Philistine’s. For me, Blaydes is a one dimensional wrestler that needs to show his style can win against the upper echelon of the heavyweight division. Rag dolling Justin Willis and Shamil Abdurakhimov is much different than rag dolling Alexander Volkov. Volkov did an interview about how he’s not sure he can get back to Moscow after this fight. My money’s on the Russian who can’t go home. There is no tomorrow for him. Volkov exposes Blaydes as a one dimensional wrestler, 3rd round KO.
Betting
Volkov as a +350 seems crazy. You may lose, but that’s a good bet. I’m all in on the Russian that can’t go home.
- Volkov Wins (+350)
- Volkov Wins by KO (+750)
- Volkov Wins in Round 3 (+1800)
Belal Muhammad (-120) vs. Lyman Good (+110)
When I look at this fight card, this fight stands out as the people’s main event; Lyman Good is bodied up and throws down and Belal is as game as any fighter on the roster. I hope these fellas win $50,000 for fight of the night.
This is a big fight for Belal, he’s won 6 of his last 7 and a win against Good would rank him as a top 15 welterweight.
Things I Like
- Belal is a very smart fighter, he has the ability to evolve and adapt within the fight. This is complemented by Belal’s best attribute, his cardio and ability to compete as the fight enters the 2nd and 3rd rounds.
- Belal’s a jack of all trades, master of none. He trusts his coaches and because he’s good at everything, he has the ability to execute adjustments to his game plan during the fight.
- Very durable fighter and won’t quit.
- I think Belal has a sneaky left hook to keep an eye out for.
Things I Don’t Like
- Belal has shown to struggle when facing power. Vincente Luque knocked him out and Geoff Neal’s power gave him real trouble.
- Belal likes to move around and take inventory of his opponent. The smaller cage will force Belal to engage.
- Has a hard time gaining respect from his opponent because he doesn’t carry power in his hands.
This fight was rescheduled because Lyman Good tested positive for the coronavirus. Good will be the first athlete to return after recovering from the virus.
Things I Like
- Good’s right hand carries a ton of power and his left jab is a rangefinder. His counter straight right hand is his best attribute.
- Good’s corner always encourages him to step into the pocket and engage. After the 2nd round in the Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos fight, his corner asked him why he’s holding back and he replied, “I don’t want to get knocked out.” In a unique exchange, his corner told him to go get knocked out trying to encourage him to engage. His team believes Good is at his best when he’s in the pocket and throwing down.
- A healthy amount of fear is positive. It’s good to be afraid. Lyman Good has good head movement, sees punches well, and it’s natural for him to keep his hands up and protect his chin.
- Lyman Good is a solid wrestler. He likes to use his wrestling to keep the fight standing and throw his 1–2 combinations. After being taken down, the best time to get back to your feet is the moment you’re taken down. The Alpha Male guys do a pretty good job of that and Lyman Good is excellent at it.
- Good has added a sneaky right high kick. He doesn’t throw it often, but it’s capable of dictating a fight if it lands.
Things I Don’t Like
- Because Good is so reliant on his right hand, he’s heavy on his lead left leg. Good’s calf is there to be hit and he hasn’t shown the ability to check the calf kick.
- Good is at his best when he’s in boxing range exchanging punches, “brawling.” He protects his chin but he takes a lot of strikes because of his style. Specifically, flying knees, straight rights, and uppercuts give him a little trouble.
- Lyman is pretty good about getting up if he’s taken down, but he does have a tendency to give up his back. Demian Maia capitalized on this tendency, guys who aren’t Demian Maia haven’t. It will be interesting to see if Belal takes Good’s back in this fight.
Prediction
Lyman Good’s best attribute is power and Belal Muhammad has struggled with power in the past. Belal’s wrestling isn’t good enough to pose Good significant problems. The smaller octagon will force Belal to engage and I think Lyman Good’s counter straight right hand is the difference in this fight. Belal has a tendency to engage more in the 2nd round after his corner’s advice, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Lyman Good win by Round 2 KO. But this is a very close fight. This could easily turn into a war of attrition, a fight Belal has the advantage in. Calf kicks and cardio could easily lead Belal to victory here, but from what I saw on tape I think Lyman Good gets it done with by KO.
Betting
Let me take a look and see if anything stands out for those of you interested in betting. Belal is a very durable fighter with no quit in him. Good winning by decision at +400 seems like a good bet. I also don’t hate Belal winning in Round 3 at +2000. Belal has a reputation of not being able to finish fights. This is a cage fight; Belal is a very good fighter and he’s very capable of finishing any fight by KO or Submission. Cardio is his strength, I would not be surprised to see Belal find a Round 3 finish.
- Lyman Good Wins by Decision (+400)
- Belal Muhammad Wins in Round 3 (+2000)
Hoping to look at Shane Burgos vs. Josh Emmett and Roxy vs. Murphy before Saturday. Check back if interested.
