UFC Uruguay
UFC New Jersey Reflection
· Hannah Goldy…I apologize. I thought Miranda Granger was going to show up thin, she was gigantic with an 8 inch reach advantage, wasn’t even a close fight.
· “Lucky” Lauren Murphy! Happy she got the win, sad she didn’t get a $50,000 bonus, unfortunately I bet the decision.
· Nasrat Haqparast is a killer.
· My friend Jim will not longer contribute.
·Here’s a link to a youtube video I made covering UFC Uruguay
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xsTY1fzEwqQ&t=1s
Polyana Viana (-160) Veronica Macedo (+135)
The UFC knows what they’re doing here, Rachael Ostovich cancels, they bring in Polyana Viana, these two girls are rockets. Polyana Viana beat the hell out of a thief attempting to rob her, everyone loves a UFC girl beating the hell out of a thief story. Viana showed excellent jiu jitsu for almost the entirety of her Maia Stevenson fight and segments of JJ Aldrich fight but Viana has a problem getting the fight to the ground. Viana has a bigger problem holding her hands low. In every fight she gets hit in the face because her hands are low. Viana tends to get fatigued, she looks real big for 115 lbs, I have a feeling she cuts too much weight. Viana had a height and reach advantage over Hannah Cifers. Cifers took advantage of Viana’s hands being low and connected with her face a lot. Viana could not manage to wrestle Cifers to the ground but she did have some success pulling guard in the 2nd round. She took this fight with Veronica Macedo short notice and it will be at 125 lbs, I am interested to see how she performs at 125 lbs. Veronica Macedo impressed me fighting Andrea Lee. Her strikes were dangerous, each punch or kick was vicious. At one point I think she threw a left head kick as if it was a flying knee, i’m not even sure what I saw but I liked it. Macedo’s jiu jitsu from the bottom was awesome. Lee had full mount and back mount a couple of times but Macedo is slippery, she twists and kicks her legs up and next thing you know she’s up. Macedo’s grappling was the reason she lost. Lee was bigger and stronger and used her strength to win grappling situations. Macedo is undersized for the 125 lbs division which is a reason why she struggles grappling. I thought Macedo’s grappling improved in her fight with Gillian Robertson, she won some grappling situations in the 1st round. Macedo was dominant when the fight was standing, but the grappling eventually cost her. It doesn’t matter how good you are at escaping back mounts and full mounts, these positions are dangerous. Unfortunately, Macedo was caught in a rear naked choke. Macedo is 23 years old and training at the MMA Lab, she will continue to make improvements with each fight.
Prediction
Macedo has a vicious striking advantage. Viana’s strength is her jiu jitsu but she struggles to take her opponents to the ground. Macedo does wear a black belt but she doesn’t want this fight on the ground. Viana has a cardio issue at 115 lbs, but it is possible fighting at 125 lbs helps her cardio. It’s also possible a short notice cut to 125 lbs is just as hard on her cardio. Macedo’s grappling has improved with every fight, if she keeps this fight on the feet she will win. I don’t think Viana has the grappling skills to force this fight to the ground. Unless Viana looks like a different fighter answering the call for a short notice 125 lbs fight Macedo wins by 2nd round knockout.
Betting
Macedo should be the favorite in this fight, she’s a +135 underdog and will be the favorite when the fight starts. I’ve seen cardio issues with Viana, I’ll take a shot with a 3rd round finish for Macedo. It looks like Macedo did end up at as the favorite, I would still take a shot on her with a smaller bet.
· Macedo wins (+135) $50 to win $67.50
·Macedo wins in 3rd round (+1800) $5 to win $90
Aleksey Kunchenko (-125) Gilbert Burns (+115)
Aleksey Kunchenko showed high level stand up in his fight with Thiago Alves. He doesn’t use kicks often but is excellent with his hands. I didn’t see Kunchenko have trouble with Alves, but Alves did have some success with leg kicks in the fight. In the Yushin Okami fight Kunchenko stopped about 10 takedown attempts while dictating octagon control. I don’t see a cardio issue with Kunchenko, this will be his first real test in the UFC octagon. When I saw Gilbert Burns fight Dan Moret I thought he was the best 155 lbs fighter to ever live. That guy cut a tremendous amount of weight for that fight and I couldn’t believe anyone could beat him at 155 lbs. Next fight, Burns is knocked out by Dan Hooker. The cerebral fluid around the brain is the last to rehydrate, guys who cut too much weight don’t have good chins. Burns cuts too much weight for 155 lbs, I think his future is at 170 lbs. Filling in on short notice for this 170 lbs fight will be a good test for him. I really like Burns as a fighter, he has power with his strikes his wrestling is good, and his jiu jitsu is sensational. This should be a good fight of contrasting styles.
Prediction
Burns is an exceptional jiu jitsu practitioner, if the fight lands on the ground Kunchenko is in danger. His striking is wild but powerful, on multiple occasions I've seen Burns throw a power punch that missed by at least a foot. Kunchenko is the higher level striker. I’ve never seen him on his back in the UFC, he stuffed 10 takedowns from Yushin Okami. It should be considered that this is a late notice fight for Burns and he didn’t have a training camp, although he competes regularly in grappling. Alright, here’s how I see this fight going, I think Kunchenko takes the center of the octagon and dictates the fight standing. Kunchenko isn’t going to be hurried, patience is a quality of high level striking. We know Kunchenko stuffed 10 takedowns in his last fight, Burns needs to get this fight to the ground or he loses a decision. Burns is an exceptional jiu jitsu practitioner but he doesn’t have elite wrestling. I could guess and make assumptions about Kunchenko, a fighter I barely know, but I’m not going to. I have seen Kunchenko stuff about 10 takedowns in his fight with Okami. I have seen Kunchenko keep distance and be a patient striker with Alves. I think those 2 facts lead me to believe Kunchenko can stay off his back and win a decision.
Betting
I have no idea what’s going to happen. I’m flirting with Kunchenko winning by decision (+165). If I felt I had more tape on Kunchenko and knew more about his jiu jitsu and takedown defense i’d make a bet. I kinda like Burns wins by submission (+450) but i’d just be guessing. Burns fighting at 170 lbs is another wild card. I’m going to pass on this one, I’m interested to see what happens.
· Pass
Alex Da Silva (-280) Rodrigo Vargas (+255)
Alex Da Silva looked solid in his UFC debut in St. Petersburg. He showed solid striking and grappled well with Alexander Yakovlev. Unfortunately, he was caught in a choke and tapped. Silva didn’t look special anywhere, but didn’t show a glaring weakness. Rodrigo Vargas fights for Combate Americas. Vargas is a southpaw fighter with cardio issues. Vargas wouldn’t be in the UFC if he wasn’t a late fill in.
Prediction
I did not study Vargas a lot but I don’t think he has UFC caliber fighting skills. Silva has the edge everywhere. Silva will win I am just wondering if Vargas’s cardio allows for a stoppage. “Fatigue makes cowards of us all” Silva wins this fight inside the distance.
Betting
I can’t bet on a fight where I watched 1 fight of 1 fighter and don’t know who the other guy is. I will pass on this fight for now. I learned my lesson trying to make a judgement on Miranda Granger off of YouTube videos last week.
·Pass
Geraldo De Freitas (-130) Chris Gutierrez (+120)
Geraldo De Freitas looked good in his UFC featherweight debut verse Felipe Colares. He’s big, his reach is long for the division, and his boxing is sharp. He mixes in some kicks but his boxing is where he's most comfortable. On the ground his jiu jitsu is excellent and his grappling isn’t a weakness. I did see De Freitas fatigue in the 2nd round and a better fighter would've taken his back and stole the round from him or choked him. Michael Bisbing was confused as to why he kept winning boxing exchanges on the feet and finishing with a takedown. This was because of his fatigue level. De Freitas’ cardio was an issue at 145 lbs. Apparently this fight is scheduled for 135 lbs. At his size, I don’t know how this guy is going to make weight and this weight cut will have an effect on his cardio. Chris Gutierrez effectively uses his kicks standing up. In the UFC he hasn’t showed good wrestling or jiu jitsu. I don’t have an issue with his cardio. The more I do these, the more I appreciate the UFC’s match making, I’m excited for this fight.
Prediction
I don’t like De Freita’s cardio or his weight cut to 135 lbs. De Frieta is basically better at everything but I am very skeptical about his weight cut. Gutierrez uses his kicks well and kicking distance is longer than boxing distance so it’s possible Gutierrez can mitigate the reach advantage through kicks. I can also see De Freita’s boxing lighting Gutierrez up on the feet if his kicks are not effective in maintaining the distance. The question I have is can Gutierrez win enough on the feet to make this a cardio battle? I really want to say yes, but I don’t think Gutierrez has the grappling skills to make De Freita work enough to turn this into a cardio battle. I think De Freita’s boxing works in the first round and implements his grappling and jiu jitsu in the later rounds to finish this fight by decision.
Betting
I really don’t like this weight cut for De Freitas but I think he has the skills to win the fight if he doesn’t gas out. I haven’t seen De Freitas gas out at 135 lbs but I’m not sure enough to bet De Freitas as a favorite. Basically I like everything about De Freitas but I don’t like the weight cut. I’m going to trust what i have seen in the fights and not my imagination. De Freitas will win this fight by decision. And maybe i’ll just throw a 5 spot on a 3rd round finish just in case De Freitas cardio does hit a wall.
·De Freitas wins decision (+185) $10 to win $18.50
·Gutierrez wins in round 3 (+1800) $5 to win $90
Raulian Paiva (+100) vs Rogerio Bontorin (-110)
Raulian Paiva has an advantage in this fight with his hands. He has a longer reach than Bontorin and that is where he hopes to win the fight. He favors his boxing over his kicks. Rogerio Bontorin has fantastic grappling and is excellent on the ground with his jiu jitsu. The fight with Magomed Bibulatov showcased these attributes. Bibulatov had a slight advantage striking, especially with his kicks. Bontorin does have a powerful 1–2 as a southpaw but where he excels is his grappling and jiu jitsu. He doesn’t have elite cardio for a 125 lbs UFC fighter but I don’t see a glaring weakness.
Predictions
Raulian hopes to win this fight boxing Bontorin. Bontorin showed he can hang on the feet with a dangerous striker in Bibulatov and take the fight to the mat. I think Raulian is “light in the ass” and Bontorin finds a way to take this fight to the ground and wins a decision.
Betting
I was impressed with Bontorin against the Russian. I think he uses his grappling and jiu jitsu to expose Raulian’s ground game.
·Bontorin wins (-110) $11 to win $10
Tecia Torres (-150) vs Marina Rodriguez (+140)
Tecia Torres looked amazing vs the karate hottie. She got inside and unloaded vicious punches, her grappling was great, and she was never in any danger on the ground. Torres again looked real good vs Jedrzejczyk, she seemed to win grappling exchanges, Jedrzejczyk just threw too much volume and she lost a close fight. Weili Zhang wore Torres down in their fight, she was much bigger, there wasn’t an area where Torres had the advantage. Marina Rodriguez is the classic muay thai fighter transitioning to mma. She is very long and her striking is sensational but she has trouble grappling. Because of this she found herself on the ground in the Randa Markos fight. Jessica Aguilar isn’t much of a test for Rodriguez. So here we go, a very long muay thai fighter facing off with the tiny tornado.
Prediction
Rodriguez might be the longest fighter Torres faced in the UFC. Her reach and muay thai is excellent. Torres will need to get on the inside and use her grappling. I feel like Rodriguez’s take down defense isn’t up to the standards of the UFC but I think it would be against Torres’ nature to become a wrestler. I’m very torn on this one, the thai clinch with knees can be utilized against a shorter opponent. I feel like Rodriguez judges distance well and will catch Torres with a right hand if she tries to get inside. But, Torres did a good job clinching Jedrzejczyk. But clinching against the fence may not be an advantage for Torres. I feel like Torres will need to have a lot of success taking Rodriguez to the ground to win this fight, Rodriguez has more paths to victory. I’ll take Rodriguez by decision.
Betting
Torres is back with American Top Team, fight camps matter. Rodriguez is an excellent muay thai practitioner and she towers over Torres. I think Rodriguez’s size will be the difference, Rodriguez will win a decision here.
·Rodriguez wins (+140) $10 to win $14
Cyril Gane (-380) Raphael Pessoa (+340)
There is film on Cyril Gane, he moves well and obviously has power. He has won all of his fights by knockout. His most recent fight he fought Rouggers Souza in Quebec. I’m a big Jason Herzog fan, feel like he might be the best in the business behind Herb Dean. Jason Herzog was the referee in this contest. Gane connected and Souza was dazed, he was dazed and Gane continued to connect. Eventually he falls backwards and clearly has no idea where he is. His mouth guard falls out while he’s on his knees waiting for Gane to deliver the final blow of the fight, having no idea where he is. Jason Herzog calls time out, proceeds to put the mouth guard back in to the kneeling fighter’s mouth. Pessoa is on his knees, having no idea where he is, tee’d up for Gane. Jason Herzog literally calls time in, and he immediately gets knocked out. It was absurd.
Prediction
This fight is basically 2 random heavyweights fighting. One looks jacked, the other doesn’t. I’ll go with the jacked dude.
Betting
It would take a special kind of person to bet Gane in this one. I don’t hate a bet on the big underdog but i’m going to sit this one out.
·Pass
Enrique Barzola (-120) Bobby Moffet (+110)
Bobby Moffet is a wrestler that's good on the ground. In 2 UFC fights I've seen him lock in 3 darce chokes. He's also worked his way out of triangles., hes a tough guy on the ground. He’s not a great striker on his feet, he wants to do most of his work on the ground, and hes decently skilled at it. I haven’t seen an issue with his cardio. I did not like the way Moffet went down to a straight left from Bryce Mitchell in the first round. Enrique Barzola is not a high level striker, his best attributes are his cardio and wrestling. He doesn’t have remarkable jiu jitsu and he has trouble holding opponents on the mat. He beat Brandon Davis because his cardio was better and he rode him for 2 rounds to get a decision. He didn’t have success with his takedowns in the Kevin Aguilar fight and the striking difference lead to a losing decision. I did find that Barzola looked to be the fresher fighter in the 3rd round of that fight because he was desperate.
Prediction
There are a couple questions that need to be answered in this fight that will decide the winner. The first question is, will Barzola have success taking Moffet to the mat, will his wrestling be successful in this fight? Moffet is a good wrestler, I don’t think there is a big wrestling advantage to be had. I also don’t think Barzola will be able to keep Moffet on the mat if he does get him down. Barzola beat Davis because of his cardio, will that same path to victory happen against Moffet? I don’t think it does, I do think Moffet has good cardio. Moffet is a good match up for Barzola’s 2 main paths to victory, combine that with an excellent ground game and good cardio, Moffet wins a close decision against Barzola.
Betting
I think Moffet is going to win this fight, hes the underdog. I still think there’s really good value at +110 for Moffet. There was a lot better value earlier in the week, people have been betting on him bringing the line down.
·Bobby Moffet (+110) $30 to win $33
Rodolfo Viera (-235) Oskar Piechota (+195)
Oskar Piechota is very patient in his stand up. He wants his opponent to throw first so he can counter by clinching, he doesn’t seem too interested in slipping and countering with a right hand. He’s not a high level striker, but i’m giving him “mutant on the ground status” along with my boy Claudio Silva. I keep wanting to tarnish Piechota’s striking but he knocked down Jonathan Wilson and he knocked out Tim Williams, that’s not nothing. Piechota definitely has improved his striking, I actually thought he was the stronger striker vs Meerschaert. Unfortunately, Piechota couldn’t finish Meerschaert on the ground in the 1st round, and he couldn’t handle Meerschaert on the top in the 2nd round. This kid is tough, the way he lost, he showed his will to win. Chris Tognoni is an awful ref. When you have Oskar Piechota fighting Gerald Meerschaert you don’t stand them up when one fighter is in full guard after like a minute. To compound that, he didn’t protect Piechota from himself when he was out on his feet taking elbow bombs to the head over and over. He let the fight go to the ground where Meerschaert decided to choke him because he was getting tired of punching. He easily slipped a rear naked in because Piechota is only operating on muscle memory at this point. He tried to tap but couldn’t physically muster it, proceeded to go unconscious and here’s Chris Tognoni lifting his arm as if he’s refereeing in the WWF. Chris Tognoni is not my favorite. Okay, so I’m hearing a lot of buzz around this Rodolfo Viera guy. apparently hes a jiu jitsu wizzard. He landed a smooth takedown against Vitaliy Nemchinov and I think his wrestling is actually good. He’s a wild card, he will need to put Piechota on his back to have a chance to win this fight.
Prediction
If Rodolfo Vieira puts Piechota on his back I do think he’s screwed. I do think Vieira has better wrestling than you would think coming from a jiu jitsu wizard. Piechota has made improvements throughout his 3 fight UFC career and he does have the advantage on the feet. I won’t be able to look myself in the mirror tomorrow after proclaiming Piechota, “mutant on the ground” status if pick against him. I’ve been hearing too much smoke about this Viera guy. I don’t want to bet on Tecia Torres’ wrestling path to victory because that’s not her strength and I don’t want to bet on Piechota’s striking to win because its not his strength. If there’s enough smoke, there’s fire, I’m staying away from this one. I’m not that good looking anyway, I don’t need to look at myself in the mirror.
Betting
I’m staying as far away as I can with this one. Rooting for Piechota though.
·Pass
Volkan Oezdemir (-155) Ilir Latifi (+145)
I’m a Volkan Oezdemir guy. He’s riding a 3 fight losing streak but he got exposed by Daniel Cormier, he lost a tough fight to Anthony Smith, and he got screwed by the judges against Dominick Reyes. The book on Volkan is he gases out early. He did gas out against Cormier and Smith but he went 3 rounds with Reyes, I am not handicapping Oezdemir because of cardio issues. Oezdemir has knockout power at light heavyweight, he likes to stand up and box. This fight has been made at least 3 times. I believe in Sweden these guys were supposed to go but Latifi had back issues and it was called off. Anyways, it looks like its happening this time in Uruguay.
Prediction
Oezdemir’s reach and his boxing is going to touch Latifi until he falls. Latifi pulled out of the Sweden fight because of back issues, back issues don’t go away. If you look at Latifi’s record everyone he's lost to is an excellent mma fighter, Mousasi, Blachowicz, Bader, and Anderson. He beats the guys he should beat. Oezdemir is still a top 5 light heavy weight, he will knock Latifi out in the 2nd round.
Betting
Awhile ago I put 3 unites on Oezdemir at -130, nothing changed, Oezdemir wins this fight easily by knockout, when the TKO/KO line comes out i’ll bet that.
·Oezdemir wins (-155) 3 units $46.50 to win $30
·Oezdemir wins by TKO/KO (+155) $10 to win $15
·Oezdemir wins in 2nd round (+550) $5 to win $27.50
Luiz Garagorr (-115) Humberto Bandenay (+105)
Well Humberto Bandenay’s first 2 fights didn’t last long. The left kick he caught Martin Bravo wasn’t a fluke, he throws his left kick and left hand a lot. In his 2nd fight his glove tap was refused and 20 seconds later he's knocked out. He did throw up a quality arm bar attempt from the bottom before he was knocked out with a slam and follow up punches. I do see a cardio issue in Bandenay’s most recent fight. Luiz Eduardo Garagorri is a muay thai fighter that hasn’t fought anyone that is relatively good at mma. He’s a hometown guy from Uruguay, my guess is that is why he is fighting on this card. A lot of mma fans don’t like this fight card. Having this fight as the co co main event is evidence for that opinion.
Prediction
It's hard to make a prediction when I can’t really find anything to watch on the favorite in the fight. A home town Muay Thai guy, beyond that, I have no idea who he is.
Betting
I’m going to pass on this fight, really weird fight.
·Pass
Vincente Luque (-230) Mike Perry (+190)
Vincente Luque is the most underrated welterweight in the division. Extremely sharp decision making with his strikes, mixes in some nice leg kicks. He has good jiu jitsu as well. I’m a big fan, saw him in Rochester. If he has an achilles heel, I feel like he has an affinity to start brawling and he's capable of getting clipped. He lost to Leon Edwards by decision but Leon Edwards is a stud. Mike Perry is very entertaining, if anyone hasn’t seen Mike Perry talk about his coaches talking to him during the fight, take a look at it. Perry likes to stand in front of you and throw his hands. He's real strong which helps him clinching against the cage and his take down defense. He switched to Jackson Winkeljohn a couple fights ago. He’s at his best standing in front of you and throwing his hands, his ground game can be exposed.
Predictions
Luque and Perry will stand in front of each other for 3 rounds and i’m excited about it. Luque striking is too good for Perry, he will get the better of him for 3 rounds. On the other hand, Perry is a strong guy and throws really good elbows from the clinch. My only concern for this fight is Luque was clipped and sat down by Ryan Barberena in their fight. He was also clipped by the late fill in Derrick Krantz in the 1st round in Rochester. Mike Perry is certainly capable of catching Luque. It’s a popular opinion that Perry at +200 is a great bet. The problem is Perry has been +200 since opening lines came out and hasn’t moved. If people really believe that the line would’ve moved. Luque continues his assault on the welterweight division and wins by decision even though his last 9 victories came by KO.
Betting
Luque is going to win a decision vs Perry. Perry is a real tough guy and will pose some threats with the clinch but Perry loses a decision. I think I’m just going to watch this fight, I like both fighters and don’t need a reason to be interested in this one.
·Pass
Valentina Shevchenko (-1000) Liz Carmouche (+800)
“It is what it is” we all know what this is. Flyweight is Valentina’s division, she now has a home. Joanna Jedrzejczyk was never close, Jessica Eye wasn’t close and Liz Carmouche won’t be close.
Prediction
Valentina Shevchenko wins this fight by knockout. Muay Thai is Shevchenko’s nature and I think she uses it for 5 rounds or less.
Betting
·Shevchenko wins by TKO/KO (+220) $10 to win $22
·Shevchenko Sister’s parlay continued from last week $11 to win $10
