UFC Vancouver

UFC 242 Betting Results

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UFC 242 Recap

• I got a lot wrong with UFC 242, here are the major mistakes: Shamil Abdurahimov, Mairbek Taisumov vs. Diego Ferreira, and Teemu Packalen.
• I took Teemu’s knockout loss to Marc Diakiese as an outlier when it was foreshadowing. His striking defense was and is terrible and he was exposed for it. I also overestimate Teemu’s grappling as a means to get the fight to the ground. At no point in that fight did Teemu ever have a chance of winning. I need to ask myself why I got that wrong or I will repeat that mistake. I don’t think I respected Brave CF, the organization Ottman fought for. Ottoman vs. Alejandro Martinez showed on tape that Teemu Packalen was going to be in trouble. I also fall in love with a jiu jitsu guy vs a striker and forget that the jiu jitsu guy will need to take the fight to the ground with wrestling. I will learn from that one.
• Paul Felder did not get robbed. The 2 judges with 30–27 made mistakes. It was a 29–28 close fight, I thought Felder won, I can see why people think Barboza won. I also think people are upset solely because they lost money gambling on Barboza. It is what it is, it’s not what it’s not.
• Don Madge came out using his grappling to beat Fares Ziam. I was surprised but he was correct to do so.
• Andrea Lee surprised me, I thought she had a clear advantage in this fight. The heat looked to have affected Lee and she fatigued in the 3rd round. You cannot question Calderwood’s heart and desire to win, I didn't think her skill set matched up well with Lee but if you told me both women would be gassed heading into a 3rd round, I will never question Calderwood’s will to win.
• You know who didn’t let the heat affect his performance?

Bruce Buffer in Abu Dhabi handling the heat

• Liana Jojua looked afraid. The first time I ever live bet a UFC fight was after the 1st round of this fight. A clear mismatch.
• The heat and Tukhugov’s cardio issues made him a perfect candidate for the upset. I was interested in this fight and it wasn’t because of my $5 bet on Murphy. Unfortunately, Murphy couldn’t keep the fight on the feet long enough to complete the upset. That kid looks good, I will be excited to see him compete again.
• Diego Ferreira surprised me. I thought he had the worst weight cut out of everyone. He needed to be helped off of the stage. I figured his chin would be soft because the cerebral fluid around your brain is the last to rehydrate. I figured Taisumov would catch him in the 1st round and put the lights out. If I remember correctly he did catch him once, but Ferreira recovered. I knew the fight was going to be a stand up fight. I just didn’t think Ferreira was going to be the dominate striker. Ferreira has the skills to keep every fight on the feet. If he can be this dominant in his stand up, he’s a problem at 155 lbs.
• I’m a sucker. Shamil +400 is a sucker’s bet. No chance of winning that fight. You know what else I no longer am subscribing too? “They’re heavyweights, 1 punch can end the fight.” I watched Bader vs. Congo and Bader beats Congo 100 out of 100 times. Shamil loses 100 times out of 100 to Blaydes. Shamil is 38 years old, Blaydes is in his prime. Blaydes can be knocked out and he does get hit a lot, but Shamil was never the man to do it.
• Ramos never had much of a chance in that fight. Makhachev had the reach advantage and it was always going to be a kick boxing match.
• If Khabib Tony isn’t scheduled next I may cry.

The Fight Guy Breaks Down UFC Vancouver

Chas Skelly (+120) vs. Jordan Griffin (-140)

Skelly wanted to grapple with Gruetzmacher. I remember Gruetzmacher fighting Davi Ramos and thought, “That’s not a great idea” but he shot twice and the 2nd takedown landed him top position. Skelly kept top position for the rest of the round. He must be a decent grappler and have a ground game. His arms look long enough to have an advantage when snapping d’arce’s. Very impressive, watching the 2nd round I thought Skelly was going down, but he choked him out. His arms are a weapon when it comes to submissions. Jason Knight is next, this should be an interesting fight as Knight’s jiu jitsu off his back is special and Skelly clearly wants to take this fight to the ground. Man Bruce looks good for this fight. I hope Knight gives us a look at his cardio. Knight and Skelly engaged on the feet early in the 1st round, each having their moments. I feel like Skelly telegraphs his punches, he’s not a natural striker. I love watching Jason Knight fight off of his back. The UFC needs to bring him back. Knight is the more dangerous striker and when Skelly takes the fight to the ground, Knight is a wizard off of his back. This is an awesome fight. Skelly looks tired and he can’t hang with Knight on the feet. He also can’t hang with Knight on the ground, so he’s got a problem. Skelly did luck into a head kick to end the round, but he’s in trouble. The UFC needs Jason Knight back. Skelly was quickly knocked out in the 3rd round. It looks like Skelly has a cardio issue as the fight extends beyond the halfway mark. Skelly was successful taking Bobby Moffet down in the 1st round. He spent the rest of the round doing the Demian Maia backpack thing. Not much damage but you can tell he is a dangerous grappler for the 1st round. Skelly looked to be slowing down in the 2nd round. Moffet took him down and Skelly wall walked himself into the D’Arce. The fight probably shouldn’t have been stopped but I don’t see Kelly winning that fight anyways. I’m not going to blame the ref, it’s not a title fight, I’d rather it be too soon rather than too late. Skelly, by definition, will live to fight another day. Jordan Griffin spent the majority of the 1st round with Dan Ige in full mount and back mount. Griffin is lucky to have survived, but he did survive, and you can’t win if you lose. Wow, Jordan Griffin showed heart in the 2nd round. Ige took him down and I thought the fight was over but Griffin fought to his feet and dominated the 2nd round with punches. Ige was okay to stay on his back with Griffin standing over him throwing punches. Tough fight for the 29 year old. Looks like he lost a 2–1 decision by being taken down in the 3rd round. Duke Rufus was in his corner, I expect the kid to improve by the time he fights Skelly. Looks to be a raw puncher and he has grappling skills. I just want to check out his Contender Series performance before I make a decision on this fight. Griffin mixes in a left high kick to finish his punching combinations that looks fluid. I see it right out of the gate in the Contender Series fight which tells me he practices it a lot and planned that combo. I also saw it in the Ige fight. His striking looks good on the Contender Series but when you up the competition and add a takedown threat with Dan Ige, I didn’t see that same striking. He also got caught in a D’Arce from this Maurice Mitchell dude that he wall walked out of. He’s not walk walking out of any D’Arce against Skelly. Griffin clipped Mitchell and finished the fight with a rear naked. He will face much tougher competition but he will get better training in Milwaukee with Duke Rufus.

Predictions
Jordan Griffin does everything okay, he doesn’t excel in one area and he doesn’t have a glaring weakness. His striking is decent but nothing special. He can be taken down but Dan Ige had a hard time finishing him in very compromising positions. I feel like I attribute that more to will to win than jiu jitsu skills. Later in the fight Griffin escaped and scrambled into positive positions for himself. I also didn’t see a cardio issue with Griffin. Chas Skelly has a long reach but his striking isn’t winning him fights. Skelly has an advantage with wrestling and jiu jitsu, I can see Griffin on his back in the 1st round. Skelly does have a cardio issue that I don’t anticipate has gotten better with age. Skelly could end this fight in the 1st round because I think he will take Griffin to the ground and he does have submission skills. I also anticipate Griffin being schooled by Duke Rufus and becoming a more skilled fighter. I anticipate Skelly fatiguing in the 2nd round and Griffin starting to dictate this fight with his boxing. With Skelly’s cardio issue helping, I think Griffin tees off on him in the 3rd round and winning by knockout. But Griffin will need to survive the 1st round because there is a very real threat for Skelly to end the fight based on what I have seen on tape. I am counting on Griffin improving at Rufus Sports to survive the 1st round.

Betting
In a one round fight, I would bet on Chas Skelly. If the fight gets out of the 1st round Griffin has a better chance of winning. I’m hearing a lot of people betting on Griffin and for their sake, I hope he doesn’t get D’Arced in the 1st round. Even if he doesn’t, I think there is a good chance Griffin will need to win rounds 2 and 3 to win the fight. And that’s not a bet I would recommend making even though I think Griffin does win rounds 2 and 3. This fight doesn’t have a good bet, I’m not betting on a fighter who will slow down after the 1st round. And Griffin can easily be D’Arced in round 1. This is an easy pass. Having said that I see Skelly winning the 1st round, the 2nd round being unclear as who the winner is with Skelly’s cardio issue coming into play, and Griffin definitively winning the 3rd round. If you can find a prop bet of Griffin winning a split majority decision at +2000 I wouldn’t hate it, I can see this fight being a split majority decision with judges having a different opinion on the 2nd round.

·Pass

Hunter Azure (+135) vs. Brad Katona (-155)

This fight was such a pain in the butt to find, ESPN+ is not fight fan friendly. I have finally located Hunter Azure vs. Chris Ocon fight so let’s look at it. Azure threw some effective leg kicks. I thought he judged distance well. Azure has a really good left kick to the body. You know what I liked the most? Azure didn’t burn himself out going for a guillotine because he knows guillotines don’t work in mma. In the 1st round, as a wrestler, I wanted to see Azure take the fight to the ground and I didn’t see it. Azure will need to consistently take fights to the ground to have any success in the UFC. It was bittersweet, I was impressed with his striking foremost, I really wanted to see him land some takedowns and keep the fight on the ground. I got the control on the ground I was looking for in the 1st round, in the 2nd round. The leg kicks paid dividends in the 2nd round. On multiple occasions Azure took Ocon’s back and didn’t lock that second leg hook in. This cost him the choke in the 3rd round and might have cost him the finish in the 2nd round. Azure is very rough around the edges as an mma fighter but has the tools to be a really good UFC fighter. He fights out of the MMA Lab and I expect him to improve a lot from fight to fight. Katona had success with left leg kicks and his left hook to start the fight against Jay Cucciniello. Cucciniello did control the octagon but Katona clearly won the 1st round, dropping Cucciniello with the left hook. That left hook landed again. I have a feeling the southpaw vs. orthodox has something to do with that left hook being successful, and also Katona has an impressive boxing background. Katona also landed a takedown in the 2nd round after having success striking. Katona was very skilled with his ground and pound. He stayed active and finished the last 2 minutes of the fight in top position causing damage. Taking Cucciniello down looks to be within the gameplan. Katona worked to full mount after taking Cucciniello down. Katona reminds me of a jack of all trades, master of none. He doesn’t stand out as being dominant in any specific area but he can fight wherever the fight goes. I don’t like his size for the division but everything else seems to be on point. I didn’t love the takedown defense in the 1st round against Matthew Lopez. Katona looks fresh, his cardio looks to be one of his best attributes at 135 lbs. Katona has 2 weaknesses and they both showed up in the Merab Dvalishvili fight fight. Those weaknesses are size and takedown defense.

Prediction
Brad Katona is a very skilled fighter at 135 lbs. He has 2 weaknesses size and takedown defense. His opponent, Hunter Azure, has 2 strengths, size and wrestling. We last saw Azure on the Contender Series and he will be making his UFC debut in Vancouver. I am not a believer in poor performances because it’s your UFC debut and I think the size and wrestling disparity to too gaping to ignore, Azure wins this fight by decision.

Betting
Azure’s strengths are wrestling and his size at 135 lbs. Katona is very skilled everywhere else but struggles with takedown defense and doesn’t have great size. I also think Azure is going to improve having trained at the MMA Lab for the past 6 months. Katona is too skilled to be finished, and at +145 it’s worth a shot betting on the wrestler with a reach and height advantage.

·Azure Wins (+145) $20 to win $29
·Azure Wins by Decision (+240) $5 to win $12

Michel Pereira (-600) vs. Tristan Connelly (+450)

I’ll start with Michel Pereira. I saw him in Rochester and I was looking forward to seeing Danny Roberts introduce him to the UFC. But I might’ve been the only one in Blue Cross Arena that wasn’t standing when he stole the show. He began his UFC debut by uncontrollably crying throughout the entirety of his walkout. He continued sobbing inside of the octagon. I’m not even sure what a ref is supposed to do when you ask a fighter, “Are you ready?” And he’s uncontrollably weeping in his corner. But the show went on. One thing I noticed while in my seat is Pereira stood out as being a gigantic 170 lbs fighter. I don’t think there is much else to say about that fight beyond he is a flashy striker that carries power. A fighter named Duško Todorović main evented the most recent Contender Series. Duško knocked out Pereira in Serbia. 14 days later Pereira fought in South Korea, this is a wild human being. He has 33 fights in 7 years. There was a video of Pereira doing back flips onto a portly Korean dude that went viral. The level of competition wasn’t great which may be why he took these fights. This is what made me root against the guy in Rochester. There isn’t a ton of useful tape on Pereira, and if you do find some it will be of him jumping from the top of the octagon doing back flips onto his opponent, good luck preparing your fighter for that. Tristan Connelly is a 155 lbs local fighter taking the fight on 4 days notice at 170 lbs, this is a mismatch. Good luck to Tristan Connelly this weekend, I will be rooting for him.

Predictions
Pereira will look like a light heavyweight, I’m telling you this guy is huge. I have no idea about Pereira’s cardio. Pereira is the biggest wildcard I have ever encountered in mma. He could look like a contender for the 170 lbs belt or he could be knocked out cold by this local, Tristan Connelly. Pereira cuts a lot of weight and the last thing to rehydrate is the cerebral fluid around the brain. Duško KO’d him lifeless in Serbia, I am kind of hoping this local shocks UFC fans and knocks out Pereira.

Betting
I will never bet Michel Pereira as a favorite, I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if he missed weight and got knocked out in this fight. I am going to pass on this and watch the show.

·Pass

Kyle Prepolec (+120) vs. Austin Hubbard (-140)

I also saw Austin Hubbard in Rochester. He was fighting Davi Ramos. Davi Ramos is a ruthless UFC debut. Hubbard looks to have striking ability. He had some combinations on the feet against Ramos. It’s hard to show you’re striking abilities when Davis Ramos is trying to take you down and counter you with his massive right hand. He was saved by the bell in the 1st round, Ramos took him down and was on his way to a rear naked choke. I did think Hubbard held his own in the grappling exchanges against arguably the best grappler in the UFC. I like this Hubbard kid, feel like he might’ve snuck under the radar because he lost in a small show for his UFC debut against an elite grappler. Hubbard’s last LFA fight was a criminally poor performance by the referee. You stop that fight or you don’t ref another show. I can’t figure out which UFC debut was worse, Austin Hubbard vs. Davi Ramos or Kyle Prepolec vs. Nordine Taleb. Taleb looked like a man and Prepolec looked like a boy. 170 lbs vs. Taleb as a 155 lbs fighter is a tough debut. But he got his foot into the UFC and now he has Austin Hubbard. I’m impressed Prepolec lasted 3 rounds, but there wasn’t much to study, Taleb was too big, it wasn’t a close fight. We had a, “Pfister, I barely know her” from the commentator to begin the Kyle Prepolec vs. Cody Pfister BTC5 fight. I’m glad I did watch that fight because I realized Prepolec has a non existent ground game.

Prediction
I like Hubbard in this fight, his training partners are Curtis Blaydes, Neil Magny, and Cory Sandhagen at Elevation. There is a lot of unknown in this fight because both fighters have only 1 UFC fight but Prepolec has 0 ground game. Hubbard spends some time on the ground in this fight and wins by 3rd round submission after making Prepolec tired forcing him to fight off of his back.

Betting
There is a difference in these two fighters ground game’s. So much so I do not mind laying -140 to bet on Hubbard in Canada. Prepolec is from Windsor, Ontario anyways. A Canucks fan isn’t rooting for the Maple Leafs to sign Mitch Marner, I think we’ll be okay if the fight goes to decision. I also think there is such a disparity in the two fighter’s ground game I like the submission prop and I like the narrative, Prepolec is fatigued from being on his back all fight he gets choked in the 3rd round.

·Hubbard Wins (-140) $14 to win $10
·Hubbard Wins by Submission (+855) $5 to win $42.75
·Hubbard Wins in Round 3 (+1750) $5 to win $87.50

Miles Johns (-155) vs. Cole Smith (+135)

Miles Johns looks like a wrestler/boxer. He wants to throw his right hand, he’ll set it up with an obligatory left jab but the right hand it where he’s comfortable. In the 1st round vs. Santiago he landed some takedowns. I didn’t see tremendous wrestling ability but he is a capable wrestler. I don’t know if this means anything but it looks like Miles John’s feet are parallel at all times. I feel like he’s pigeon footed. I wouldn’t want to bet on a pigeon footed guy, I don’t know if there are facts to back that up, but I can’t think of a single pigeon footed athlete except for Pavel Datsyuk and he played hockey. I don’t see any jiu jitsu skills with Johns. Johns coach gave him a speech about how he’s not tired and to stop thinking he’s tired after the 2nd round. Johns probably has a hard time with his cardio carrying all of that muscle. Johns was exhausted in the 3rd round. Very strong right hand, solid wrestler, poor cardio, decent fighter. I am impressed with Cole Smith’s grappling against the fence in the 1st round against Mitch Gagnon. He threatened a kimura to prevent the takedown, turned Gagnon to the fence and they both separated throwing some elbows. I liked the way Smith fought at kicking distance against the smaller Gagnon. Impressive grappling by Cole Smith taking Gagnon’s back and neck cranking him. I haven’t seen good boxing from smith despite the reach advantage. Wow, Gagnon rocked Smith with a right hand. That is very worrisome heading into the Miles Johns fight.

Predictions
Miles Johns is a decent mma wrestler with a strong right hand. His cardio is weak and his jiu jitsu is weak. He doesn’t have reach or height at 135 lbs. Cole Smith at 5'11' has good size for 135 lbs. His cardio is good and I don’t hate how he uses his kicks to stay at kicking distance. I think his grappling and jiu jitsu were on display against Mitch Gagnon nearly choking him out on multiple occasions. Smith doesn’t have good boxing and I don’t like how he got absolutely rocked by a right hand from the compact Gagnon. You know who else is compact and a good right hand? Yea, the guy he’s fighting in Vancouver. But, if Cole Smith can be effective at kicking range and avoid Johns’ right hand, I think Smith’s grappling against the fence will wear on Johns’ cardio. Cole Smith takes the back of a fatigued Miles Johns and wins this fight by rear naked choke in the 3rd round.

Betting
I am very concerned about a right hand from Miles Johns clipping Cole Smith, but at +135 and only one way to win for Miles John I’ll take Cole Smith. I specifically like Cole Smith winning in the 3rd round because there is a cardio disparity between the 2 fighters. Cole Smith’s grappling will pay dividends in this fight and Smith’s Jiu Jitsu will submit Miles John’s in the 3rd round.

·Smith Wins (+135) $15 to win $20.25
·Smith Wins in Round 3 (+1825) $5 to win $91.25
·Smith Wins by Submission (+650) $5 to win $32.50

Louis Smolka (-235) vs. Ryan MacDonald (+195)

Ryan MacDonald was completely dominated by Chris Gutierrez in their 1st round. There wasn’t a lot of damage but MacDonald didn’t seem to know how to mount any offense as Gutierrez kicked him the entirety of the round. I’ve seen this fight before, it doesn’t get better for MacDonald. Alright, I’m done watching this. MacDonald left a lot to be desired in his UFC debut. I don’t know if it was the weight cut or what, but not a good showing. Smolka used his wrestling to beat one of the stars from UFC Shenzhen, Su Mudaerji. But he lost everywhere vs. Matt Schnell. To me this fight is a loser goes home fight. Smolka had a previous run in the UFC, but he didn’t look great vs. Schnell.

Prediction
Neither fighter really has been impressive at 135 lbs in the UFC. I guess I am going to go with Smolka via decision. He grappled Su Mudaerji for a victory and got caught in a triangle from Matt Schnell. I guess anyone can get caught in a triangle against Matt Schnell. Smolka has stunk less in the last year so I’ll take him.

Betting
I don’t want to bet on either fighter.

·Pass

Jeff Hughes (-125) vs. Todd Duffee (+105)

Jeff Hughes knocked out the portly fellow they gave him on the Contender Series in the 1st round. Hughes is a training partner of Stipe, he looks like he’s a kick boxer with good cardio. Hughes had a hard time with Maurice Green’s length in their 1st round, but who wouldn’t. Green looked fatigued walking to his corner while Hughes didn’t look affected. I thought Jeff Hughes found his timing in the 2nd round and started to connect with his right hand. It doesn’t look like Todd Duffee has fought since 2015 when he was knocked out in the 1st round by Frank Mir in a firefight. I can guarantee you Todd Duffee is not a fan of the new USADA policy.

Predictions
This is a hard one to predict. On one hand you have an active fighter who spars with Stipe and has had decent performances in the UFC. On the other hand we have a guy who’s last fight was Frank Mir when he was allowed to take steroids. He had knee surgeries, some sort of MRSA infection, an “alleged gambling problem, and he seems like a mental midget. I’ll take Jeff Hughes by knockout in the 2nd round.

Betting
Todd Duffee hasn’t fought in 4 years, I’m going to pass on this one. If Jeff Hughes is close to +100 by fight time I may make a bet on him due to activity.

• Pass

Marcin Tybura (-120) vs. Augusto Sakai (+100)

I don’t think Chase Sherman is any good but Augusto Sakai did have success with leg kicks in the 1st round. There isn’t anything special about Sakai, he has a right hand, he used his left hand to frame the head for his right uppercut in the clinch. That’s an effective technique for Bare Knuckle boxing, but also worked in this fight. Sherman had no energy left for the 3rd round and Sakai had energy to violently finish a fighter who couldn’t punch back for the entirety of the 3rd round. I’m not being sarcastic, I think it’s important to point out Sakai did have energy for that. Sakai countered a leg kick with a left hand that knocked Arlovski down in the 1st round. I always like seeing guys counter kicks with punches, it’s very important skill at any weight class. Sakai’s hands are better than I thought. Decent clinch work and cardio to go 3 rounds at heavyweight. Tybura vs. Struve is a weird fight. I guess any Struve fight is weird because he’s so big. Tybura utilized takedowns to win the round. He threw a couple power right hands but the takedown is where Tybura had the advantage in this fight. I can’t get over how big Struve is. Struve caught Tybura with a right front kick that had him on wobbly legs. Tybura successfully weathered the storm by wrestling Struve to the ground. The key to this fight was Tybura’s takedowns, there was no way he could reach Struve from distance, he needed to clinch and take Struve down to close the distance to hurt him. He executed that plan. I’m not sure how that wrestling will apply to this fight. Struve may have poor takedown defense because hes so big and uncoordinated with that skill. Shamil Abdurahimov’s boxing is much better in this 1st round, Shamil is dangerously close to knocking Tybura out. Yea, Shamil caught him in the 2nd for a knockout. I really would’ve liked to see Tybura use his wrestling against Shamil to see how that played itself out. In the 2nd round he threw a kick I liked but there was no wrestling. He was struggling at boxing range. I know Shamil has decent wrestling but when things aren’t working, he needed to try something different. Tybura’s 3 most recent fights are really weird fights to try and look at his attributes for fighting. Derek Lewis has unique one shot power, isn’t technical but kind of good off of his back, takedown prone, and doesn’t have exceptional cardio but carries power in all rounds. Awesome fighter, not a great barometer for Tybura to asses skills for this fight.

Prediction
Well, it looks like Tybura has a little bit of a wrestling game when it comes to opponents that are easy to take down. Tybura had success wrestling with Derek Lewis and Struve. Both of those guys are gigantic and not great wrestlers. When Tybura faced Shamil, the wrestling wasn’t a factor and Shamil beat Tybura boxing. I don’t hate Sakai’s right hand and cardio, and I don’t think Tybura is going to have success wrestling with Sakai. Sakai wins this fight with his right hand in the 2nd round.

Betting
I don’t think Tybura’s wrestling becomes a factor in this fight and I like Sakai’s boxing better. I wanted to bet Sakai wins in round 3 but the odds were not good enough at +1000.

• Sakai Wins (-105) $10.50 to win $10

Marvin Vettori vs. Andrew Sanchez (Canceled)

I have a feeling Andrew Sanchez showed his entire skill set in the first minute of the 1st round against Ryan Janes. Solid right and left punches, finishes his combos with a left body kick, shoots timed doubles, can’t control his opponent on the ground which is a waste of energy for a double leg, and decent elbows punches out of the clinch work. Feel like he exhausted a lot of energy in that first minute but we shall see. Wow, this fight should have been stopped in the next minute. Sanchez used a tremendous amount of energy violently hurting Janes face and the ref let the fight continue. I guess well get a look at Sanchez’s cardio but man, stop the fight ref. Janes coming back, Sanchez, to no fault of his own, is fatigued. I wish I could hear what Janes corner was saying, I’m watching this fight on silent listening to Yanni, “If I could tell you” similarly to the way Paul Smecker investigated Conor and Murphy dropping that toilet on the 2 Russian’s heads. This is a silly fight, back to back probable 10–8 rounds with each fighter winning one. Sanchez can barely stand up, Janes was real smart to attack the body in the 2nd crippling Sanchez heading into this 3rd. Such an interesting fight. Sanchez sold out trying to finish the fight in the 1st round and clearly concussed Janes. But he fatigued himself in doing so. Janes’ brain recovered but Sanchez’s body couldn’t. Interesting dynamic at play in this fight with Janes getting the knockout in the 3rd round. Sanchez switched camps to Tristar and looked to have a different mentality in his fight with Perez. He had a wrestling heavy attack. He struggled with the body kicks from the southpaw stance of Perez but he won the 1st round utilizing his wrestling against the fence. Different style of fighter compared to last fight. An interesting thing was said between the 1st and 2nd rounds in Sanchez’s corner. His coach said, “You’re not ready to really fire shots on him yet.” This tells me he came into this fight with the idea of wrestling for 2 rounds and teeing off in the 3rd keeping his cardio under control and being a focus for this fight. Sanchez struggles with that left body kick from a southpaw stance. His striking looks like hes a college wrestler that learned how to strike after his college wrestling career was over. It looks like his plan is to let his hands go from the clinch in the 3rd round. I have it 1–1 heading into the 3rd. I think I have Sanchez winning that 3rd round. I really wanted to see Sanchez explode from the clinch and land some violent punches/elbows, but it didn’t seem to happen. I am familiar with Marvin Vettori a little bit, I saw him lose a close decision to Israel Adesanya in a striking affair awhile back. He’s a hungry up and coming prospect and I like his game. His last 3 fights from memory are striking affairs where he wins decisions. There is a little bit of a cardio factor in play because hes a muscled fighter. Those fights are Cezar Ferreira, Israel Adesanya, and Omari Akhmedov. A fight I am interested in seeing is Vettori against Foot face early in his career. I saw Footface in Rochester and hes a grappling heavy jiu jitsu guy. This is early in Vettori’s career but I want to see how he handles a grappler because I think Sanchez is going to try to grapple with him. I didn’t hate the young Vettori’s takedown defense against the fence in the 1st round. Lets see how he fares in the later rounds. I did like the natural utilization of a left body kick from Vettori. I’m impressed with the young Vettori in a match up that looked real bad for him on paper. Footface got a decision via takedowns in rounds 1 and 3 and Vettori did damage in round 2. His cardio stood the test of time and his takedown defense was impressive. Vettori showed skill countering a pressure wrestler in the 1st round of the Omari Akhmedov fight. He actually pulled away in the 3rd round to win that fight. What you see is what you get with Vettori, a very young, hungry fighter who is working hard to improve.

Predictions
Sanchez will come into this fight with the idea of wrestling Vettori. Vettori’s takedown defense and overall grappling ability is enough to stifle Sanchez’s wrestling. Vettori walks Sanchez down for the majority of the fight and catches him a lot with the left hand and it wouldn’t surprise me to see that left body kick in play in this fight. Vettori wins by 2nd round knockout.

Betting
I’ve been involved in the MMA gambling game enough to look at implied odds. -300 says Vettori wins this fight 75% of the time, I would have to think Vettori wins this fight 80% of the time to say this is a good bet. I just don’t think the reward is worth the risk. I would wait before betting this fight, I have a feeling Vettori will show up to the fight at a -250 favorite, I wouldn’t hate betting that line, but I’m not going to jump on -300 Vettori wins.·Pass

Jimmy Crute (-105) vs. Misha Cirkunov (-115)

In Crute’s Contender Series performance he looked like an undersized Light Heavyweight that came out of the gate with combinations that looked sharp. As the round wore on he slowed down and he was letting his opponent control the octagon as he danced around the outside. He did compose himself and he again started landing good strikes. At the end of the round he caught his opponent with a right hand that staggered him, the ref stopped the fight before a head kick ended it. Crute reminds me of Holly Holm the way he moves subtly laterally, bouncing back and forth. Maybe he has a kick boxing style and that’s just how they do it in kickboxing. Crute looks bigger in his UFC debut against Paul Craig. I’ll tell you what, Crute’s ground game impressed me. He swept Paul Craig from bottom position, had a head and arm choke locked in, and wasn’t mismatched on the ground. He also was intelligent enough to know he wants to fight on his feet. I am impressed with Crute’s ground game, but I don’t like he’s spending a lot of this fight where he doesn’t want to be…on the ground. Very impressive performance from Crute, I like this kid. I am fully expecting Crute to knock out Sam Alvey in the 1st round. If Crute loses to a guy with a smiley face buzzed into his head I’m off his band wagon. Yup, I like this Crute kid, 1st round KO over Smiley. Misha Cirkunov reminds me of Marvin Vettori but at 205 lbs. Hell of a performance against Patrick Cummins, caught him with his hands early, out grappled him to the ground and finished the fight with a head and arm choke. Well, Cirkunov was a 1st round victim to Johnny Walker with a knee. I’d like to have more of a look at Cirkunov, let's look at the Glover Teixeira fight. Another 1st round finish, I don’t know what to think about this guy. He was striking fine with Glover but Glover got double under hooks and tripped him. Glover dominated him on the ground. Cirkunov looks the part, he’s jacked, I’m going to give him one more fight. I guess we’re going to look at my boy Volkan vs Cirkunov. Cirkunov crashed forward with his hands and Volkan caught him behind the ear, the worst place to get punched, and knocked him out in the 1st round. This guy can’t catch a break. I’m going to watch the Nikita Krylov because Krylov is on the card too. Probably the most impressive performance in Cirkunov’s career. His left hand was dangerous in this fight and his jiu jitsu and wrestling dictated the rest of the fight. Where was that jiu jitsu vs. Glover though?

Predictions
This is a close fight. Cirkunov has had a tough go of it lately losing to Volkan, Glover, and most recently Johnny Walker. I don’t necessarily consider any of those bad loses. I was wondering where his jiu jitsu was in the Glover fight but Volkan catching you behind the ear will put anyone out and Johnny Walker is being talked about as the guy to take down Bones. Cirkunov showed good wrestling in the Krylov fight and Crute was taken down almost at will by Paul Craig, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Cirkunov dictate this fight with his top position jiu jitsu. On the other hand Crute’s jiu jitsu was very good in the Craig fight so why can’t he compete on the ground with Cirkunov? Cirkunov will have a strength advantage, he has a very muscular build, that could be a factor if Cirkunov gets top position. Cirkunov has those crashing punches that carry power but I do give the stand up advantage to Crute. I haven’t seen Cirkunov’s cardio because all of his fights last 1 round but if I was a gambling man, I would side with Crute’s cardio based on Cirkunov’s build. Crute’s career is on an upward swing while Cirkunov hasn’t had much success lately. I have too many check marks on Crute, I like the kid as a fighter, he wins by knockout in the 3rd round here.

Betting
These odds make sense, this is a close fight. Cirkunov’s recent record doesn’t support the kind of fighter he is and Crute is a very good fighter that is at the age where you make really big improvements. I don’t think Cirkunov’s wrestling is a factor here, Crute has an advantage in this fight.

• Crute Wins (-105) $10.50 to win $10

Antonio Carlos Junior (-250) vs. Uriah Hall (+210)

Uriah Hall has a tremendous reach for a middle weight at 79 inches. His jab in the Paulo Costa fight was effective. Unfortunately for Hall Paulo Costa might be the next Middleweight champ. Costa’s power caught Hall in the 2nd round. Hall did not look as good in his next fight against Bevin Lewis. Lewis was the aggressor early in the fight winning rounds with his striking. Lewis fatigued in the 3rd round and Hall caught him with a counter that stopped the fight. It wasn’t an impressive performance from Hall in my opinion. I believe Hall will have a striking advantage in this fight but I haven’t had a chance to evaluate his grappling. Footface is a grappler, he wants to take the fight to the ground and work his high level jiu jitsu. I watched the Krysztof Jotko fight hoping to see Hall off of his back. Apparently Uriah Hall’s thing is he gets his ass beat early in the fight and comes back with a random knockout right hand. In the 1st round Jotko rocked Hall and took the fight to the ground. His ground game was non existent but he also seemed very concussed so I’m not going to value that very highly. Alright let’s check out the most recent Mousassi fight. Mousassi initiated the clinch late in the 1st round and promptly took the fight to the ground and finished it, my fears for Hall are real. Footface is a high level jiu jitsu practitioner that has the wrestling to take this fight to the ground. Marvin Vettori wasn’t strong enough with his takedown defense and lost a decision because of it. I was in Rochester when footface lost a decision to Ian Heinisch. His cardio gave out in the 3rd round and it cost him. Heinisch also had the ability to stand up when foot face got the fight to the ground. Foot face’s striking isn’t good enough to beat most opponents on the feet, he needs to take the fight to the ground.

Prediction
I think Foot face’s ground game is the difference in this fight. Hall doesn’t look to be able to fight off of his back and Footface has the grappling/wrestling to take the fight there. Hall has an advantage on the feet here, but I don’t like how he gets beat up and seems to win with a one shot KO. That’s repeatable, and I don’t like the way his career is trending. If you google Uriah Hall you may run across an interview talking about a bad weight cut. He mentions “hospital, heart attack, kidney failure” and some other stuff, but that’s not what you want to hear from a fighter. Footface wins by rear naked choke in the 2nd round.

Betting
Footface’s jiu jitsu and wrestling abilities are too good to think Hall is a live underdog. On the surface Hall looks like a good bet, but he’s not. On the other end of the spectrum Footface isn’t a good bed either, his striking doesn’t match up well with Hall on the feet. If Hall can keep this fight on the feet, Footface could very easily get caught with a right hand. I am going to pass on this fight.

• Pass

Glover Teixeira (+100) vs. Nikita Krylov (-120)

We saw Glover take Misha Cirkunov to the ground and use his jiu jitsu to win in the 1st round. Lets look at Glover’s Corey Anderson fight. Corey Anderson is the Curtis Blaydes of the Light Heavyweights. He has more striking techniques than Blaydes, but Anderson won 3 rounds because he went after the takedown and had limited success, but success. Teixeira has good takedown defense but when you have a guy in a singlet trying to take you down for the entirety of the fight, you’re going to get taken down. This fight is also another example of how guillotines never work and you just give up top position when you pull one. When you look at Glover Teixeira I think, that’s a guy prime to be beaten by the younger generation. But I keep being wrong, Glover showed good takedown ability in the clinch and showed excellent jiu jiu jitsu against Karl Roberson. Roberson did catch Glover with some elbows that tested Glover’s chin and Glover dropped. It wouldn’t have been unreasonable for the ref to stop the fight but the ref did not. It’s hard not to be impressed by Glover after watching that fight. This Cutelaba fight might be one of my favorites, I remember watching this live with my buddies and rooting for Glover after Cutelaba walked past Bruce Buffer and did the neck slice thing during his introduction. What an asshole, so happy he gassed out and Glover made him look like an idiot. But Glover was hurt in that 1st round and this was another fight where he had to recover. Jan Blachowicz is a good test for Nikita Krylov, his skill set is similar to Glover, he has strong ground game, good wrestling and okay stand up. Krylov started out strong with his karate style using his kicks and shot for a takedown. Unfortunately, Jan has an excellent ground game and reversed the position winning the round by threatening chokes from side control. Jan caught a kick and picked up where he left off from round 1, working side control and found a choke. Krylov doesn’t have a good ground game and that’s a problem because Glover is a legit black belt and has been practicing in the UFC for decades. Ovince St. Preux wanted to take Krylov down in round one, that was clearly his gameplan heading into this fight. Krylov looked better off of his back against St. Preux than he did with Jan. I also thought Krylov looked physically bigger carrying more muscle. I feel like that’s a sign of an improving fighter. St. Preux completely gassed out in the 2nd round and Krylov choked him. So who wins this fight?

Predictions

Nikita Krylov has the signs of a fighter that is growing. He has worked on his body, he looks more muscled at 205 lbs. There were improvements in his jiu jitsu that you could notice in the St. Preux fight. He is entering his prime as a fighter at age 27. Glover looks old and weather, but he can still fight. I am concerned about his chin. Glover’s past 2 fights he has been rocked early and forced to recover to win the fight. Glover’s strength is his wrestling and specifically his jiu jitsu from top position. What I have seen on tape says Glover Teixeira should find a takedown early in this fight and work to side control. From side control Glover finishes this fight with a head and arm choke in the 2nd round.

Betting
I’m going to look like such an idiot when Glover gets knocked out by a fighter that looks the part…in his prime, muscles glistening, raising his hands over Glover’s lifeless body as his chin has finally fully given in. But, I’m going to make a bet on Glover in this fight because that’s what the tape shows. . I think Glover catches a kick from the karate boy and puts this fight on the ground. From the ground Glover’s black belt in Brazilian jiu jitsu takes over and he finds side control and chokes Krylov. Krylov can’t learn jiu jitsu fast enough to catch up with a guy like Teixeira. There is such a strength vs. weakness dynamic in this fight that cannot be ignored. I was planning on betting Glover by submission but the odds were +150, I liked the +1074 odds of Glover by decision better.

• Glover Wins (+100) $10 to win $10
• Glover Wins by Decision (+1074) $5 to win $53.70?

Cowboy (+165) vs Gaethje (-190)

I’m going to rewatch a couple Cowboy fights where his opponent is similar to Gaethje. Cowboy was schedule to fight Khabib a couple years ago but Khabib pulled out with an injury. That fight would have been a good one to watch. Without traveling too far back in time lets look at RDA vs. Cowboy 2. Cowboy got hit with a liver shot and that fight was a wrap. Cowboy got in a serious ATV accident when he was younger and they cut out some of his intestines. There has been a theory about going to the body against Cowboy because of that injury. I don’t necessarily subscribe to that theory, I think Cowboy got hit in the liver and tried to survive but just couldn’t with RDA throwing punches in bunches. The next Cowboy fight I want to watch is Alexander Hernandez. Hernandez has a high pressure style that Gaethje will bring. Cowboy does have a tendency to start slow, he admits that himself. He took a punch from Hernandez right off the bat and it seemed to wake him up. One thing that I think is important to mention is, Cowboy found his distance moving backwards against a smaller fighter that was pressuring him. He read Hernandez and was timing knees. Moving backwards and finding your distance is a very hard thing to do in mma. When you see a fighter moving backwards, very rarely do you see that fighter winning that fight, but that’s what Cowboy did in this 1st round. Once Cowboy found his range the fight was over. Cowboy landed a knockout head kick after hurting Hernandez to the body with a kick. Cowboy looks in better shape against Tony. It’s one thing to find your distance going backwards against Alexander Hernandez but Tony Ferguson is relentless with pressure and there is a reason hes on a 12 fight win streak. There is a good argument to make Cowboy won the 1st round, but the 2nd was all Tony, Cowboy was overwhelmed with the pressure. I think he needed to find a knockout kick in that fight, Tony doesn’t stop. Alright, lets look at Gaethje. Justin Gaethje doesn’t really have a similar opponent to Cowboy. I guess Michael Johnson or Dustin Poirier would be the closest comparison. What is interesting about Justin Gaethje is he never tailors his gameplan for a fighter. Justin will not use his wrestling, Justin will smash your left leg with his right leg, Justin will try and exchange heavy punches with you in the pocket and see who falls.

Prediction
I have a lot of questions in this fight. You know what I wouldn’t hate to see? Cowboy change levels and shoot a double leg, try and take this fight to the ground. I don’t think Gaethje has fought off of his back in the UFC. Gaethje has the All American wrestling pedigree and has said in the past he doesn’t want to use his wrestling because he doesn’t want to get tired in the octagon. Because you were an All American wrestler in college does not mean Cowboy can’t take you down and use his jiu jitsu top game advantage. I also wouldn’t hate to see Cowboy pull guard ONCE and see if he can work Gaethje in his guard. I’m not a big fan of pulling guard but trying it once in this 5 round fight that’s unlucky to go the distance I wouldn’t hate trying the strategy. I think it’s very likely Gaethje smashes Cowboy’s leg and ends this fight in the 3rd round by stoppage. But you know what? I don’t want to believe that, so here’s my case for Cowboy winning this fight in the 4th round. Cowboy can move backwards and “take inventory” in the 1st round, he knows this fight isn’t going to last 5 rounds, but is 5 rounds. In the 2nd round Cowboy can start landing timed knees and combinations all while taking damage. In the 3rd round, it’s more of the same, violent striking with both fighters starting to slow. In the 4th round Cowboy shoots a double and takes a tired Gaethje to the ground and finds side control. Cowboy finishes this fight by submission from side control and he parades his baby around the Octagon, everyone celebrates.

Betting
I see Cowboy having the jiu jitsu advantage, the reach advantage, and experience. Cowboy is a slow starter and Gaethje doesn’t have great cardio, I think Cowboy could end this fight in the 4th round when Gaethje is tired by submission. Cowboy isn’t going to trade with Gaethje when he’s staggering forward, he’s going to shoot a double, gain side control and choke this dude out.

• Cowboy Wins in Round 4 (+1475) $5 to win $73.75

UFC Vancouver Betting Summary