UFC Washington, D.C.

UFC São Paulo Recap

• Charles Oliveira was the star of the show, knocking out Josh Gordon in the 1st round. Al Iaquinta would be a nice fight for him, Oliveira deserves a top 10 opponent.
• Jan Blachowicz did not endear himself to UFC fans in São Paulo, but he did win. I don’t think he’s getting a title shot with that performance, but a matchup with Anthony Smith, Cory Anderson, or Volkan Oezdemir to solidify his title contendership isn’t unreasonable.
• James Krouse is 8–1 in his last 9 fights…that’s not nothing. I guess James Krouse is more focused on coaching these days, but I’d watch James Krouse vs. Gilbert Burns. They say the best way to learn something is to teach it. Lets not let James Krouse sneak under the radar.
• I was very impressed with Randy Brown’s performance submitting a fatigued Warlley Alves with a triangle. Randy Brown deserves a top 15 opponent too.
• The Fight Guy did end up betting on Jan Blachowicz when Jan fell to -145 around fight time, going against and rescinding one of his cardinal rules, “Don’t be on the Polish.”
• I started a subreddit on Reddit, r/TheFightGuy you’re welcome to join. I will post the write up for each UFC card in there.

Alistair Overeem vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Jairzinho Rozenstruik is 6'4" with a 78" reach, he doesn’t really have a home gym where he trains. He’s become very popular in the UFC because he knocks his opponents out, he’s 3–0 with 3 KO’s. So, Jairzinho has an extensive kickboxing background and has taken up MMA. So far he’s 9–0. His best attribute is power, but he can’t wrestle or do any of the jiu jitsu. This is a massive hole in his MMA game that has yet to be exposed. Jairzinho actually tried to enter the RIZIN ring greased up like the greased up deaf guy from Family Guy. He was trying to discourage his opponent from wrestling with him. He received a RIZIN yellow card, I’m not sure what that is. I’ve seen Jairzinho get hit with naked right hands consistently throughout his career. I am not impressed with his striking defense. His cardio has not been tested because he has knocked everyone out in the early rounds. So the big question is, has Jairzinho learned to grapple? Can he defend the takedown? Trying to enter the RIZIN ring like the greased pig shows that Jairzinho is aware of his Achilles heel. I would like to see a more stable training environment if I was to trust a fighter to learn grappling. It’s hard for me to believe Jairzinho’s grappling isn’t a significant weakness for this fight. It’s impossible to know but we will find out in Washington, D.C. I wrote about Jairzinho for my UFC 244 write up, I had the same questions about his grappling ability.

Alistair Overeem is 6'4" with an 80" reach, he fights out of Elevation Fight Team. Overeem has evolved his game to accommodate his age and his withering chin. He still is a very high level striker, but he is more of a patient, creative, defensively oriented, striker that is looking to find his shot. Overeem’s age is catching up to him and is his biggest weakness. In fights it is not uncommon to see Overeem turn his back to his opponent and literally run away. This is an effective technique, sure, but the bigger issue here is Overeem can’t take a punch anymore. It’s also not uncommon to see Overeem shell up against the cage with his opponent teeing off on him. It seems anytime his opponent throws a combination he is at risk to be knocked out. But, I don’t want to be so dramatic here, Overeem is still a quality heavyweight and a very dangerous opponent himself. He’s really good in the clinch against the fence especially with his knees. Overeem has been successful in the fight game for a long time, he doesn’t have a weakness besides his chin might be going a little bit. Absolute legend of the sport. I haven’t noticed a severe problem with Overeem’s cardio.

Prediction

This fight is pretty simple, but I have no idea who is going to win. Jairzinho hits very hard, Overeem is susceptible to being KO’d. Jairzinho can’t do any of the wrestling or any of the jiu jitsu, consider Overeem Demian Maia for this fight. So? What happens? Does Overeem clinch with Jairzinho and win a decision or find a finish on the ground or does Jairzinho continue to show grappling isn’t real and KO Overeem like he has every other opponent in the UFC? I also want to say that I’m not impressed with Jairzinho’s striking defense. Without the threat of the takedown, Overeem may land some huge body kicks and possibly some right hands to the temple. BUT, all it takes is one shot for Jairzinho to end the fight. I’d be lying if I said I had a good idea who was going to win the fight, but I’ll take Overeem here, “If you can’t wrestle, you can’t fight.”-The Fight Guy

Betting

This is a 50/50 fight. If one of these guys becomes a decent sized underdog that’s the bet to make. Don’t underestimate Overeem here, I can imagine a lot of people betting Jairzinho and making Overeem a decent sized underdog. The prop bets came out and remember when I said consider Alistair Overeem Demian Maia for this fight? I meant that and Overeem by submission is +850. That’s a pretty good bet, unless I am missing something Jairzinho can’t do any of the wrestling or any of the jiu jitsu. That fact has been masked by Jairzinho KO’ing everyone with a jab, but I promise you, it’s there.

• Overeem Wins by Submission (+850) $5 to win $42.50

Cynthia Calvillo (+120) Vs. Marina Rodriguez (-130)

Cynthia Calvillo is 5’4” with a 64” reach, she trains out of Tiger Muay Thai but I think she’s spent a significant amount of time with Alpha Male. The woman is very good at moving in and out of range. She will try and steal rounds by attempting a takedown with 30–45 seconds left in the round. Her cardio is excellent and finishes fights strong. She isn’t a proficient wrestler but when she is on the ground with her opponent she threatens to finish the fight with submissions. Calvillo is very good at immediately getting back to her feet when she is taken down. Something she probably picked up at Alpha Male, but it’s a very effective technique with how judges score takedowns. She isn’t as effective landing strikes when there is a reach disparity. This Cynthia Calvillo girl is a really good fighter. It looks like she is having a tough time with the 115 lbs weight cut, that will be something to keep an eye on. Well I kept an eye on it and she missed weight by 5 lbs. I’m not sure if that is good or bad for her chances to win the fight.

Marina Rodriguez is 5’6” with a 65” reach, she fights out of Thai Brasil Floripa. Rodriguez is an elite Muay Thai practitioner from Brazil and she has good size for the 115 lbs division. She’s good in the clinch working her knees and elbows. Her size allows her to touch her opponent at distance. She doesn’t utilize a jab, but teep kicks keep her opponent at bay. She really excels when her opponent is aggressive and she can strike her opponent when they move in. After Rodriguez finds her range she tends to finish the 2nd and 3rd rounds strong. What I haven’t liked about Rodriguez is her ground game. Randa Markos found full mount from a judo throw in the 1st round. On the ground Rodriguez can look like she’s in the process of learning jiu jitsu. I’d be naive to think Rodriguez isn’t working on her jiu jitsu, but this is what I’ve seen.

Prediction

Rodriguez is really good when her opponent has a reach disadvantage and needs to get inside to strike. Calvillo has really good movement and is good at moving in and out of the pocket, but she’s playing into Rodriguez’s strength. Both of these ladies are Muay Thai practitioners but Rodriguez has the attributes and wins a Muay Thai competition more times than not. Where I think Calvillo can cause Rodriguez problems is on the ground. From what I have seen Calvillo has a significant advantage on the ground. But Calvillo is not a remarkable wrestler, so finding those jiu jitsu positions will be tough. She will try to steal rounds with takedowns at the end of a round but she’s not entering the octagon with a singlet and trying to win a decision. Calvillo will need to find the ground from alternative means, possibly catching one of those teep kicks Rodriguez throws. If she does find the ground Rodriguez might be in trouble defending submissions or at the very least losing the round. The most likely outcome for this fight is Rodriguez wins a 2–1 decision using her Muay Thai to impress the judges but I am not confident, this Calvillo girl seems to love fighting and will present very real problems for Rodriguez.

Betting

This is a really close fight. I like the age difference, Rodriguez is entering her prime and 32 isn’t ideal for a woman fighter. I think there is just enough there so say Rodriguez wins this fight at -130.

• Rodriguez Wins (-130) $13 to win $10

Ben Rothwell (-135) vs. Stefan Struve (+125)

Ben Rothwell is 6'4" with an 80" reach, he coaches at Rothwell MMA. USADA caught Rothwell taking testosterone and gave him a 2 year ban. After studying Rothwell the biggest takeaway I had is this guy just loves fighting. When Bruce Buffer announced Rothwell for the Brendan Schaub fight, I was afraid. . Rothwell moves forward like a monster and looks to land a KO. “If you look for the knockout, you will lose a decision.”-Mike Tyson. Rothwell hasn’t found the KO and he’s been losing decisions. I feel like Rothwell has back issues with the way he moves and throws his high kicks, his back looks very tight. He switches stances but his head will be cockeyed so he’s looking at you from an angle. I’m not sure what to make of it, but it’s a thing. Rothwell has a fantastic chin and won’t quit. Rothwell is a black belt in jiu jitsu and does have a decent guillotine choke against the fence. Unfortunately, I don’t think Rothwell’s cardio allows him to have wrestling as apart of him gameplan. But if the fight finds the mat, I like Rothwell’s jiu jitsu. When Rothwell moves forward with a flurry of punches he still carries power. The Thai clinch is a technique Rothwell will reach for if presented. He likes to slip right punches to his left and I think the way his head is cockeyed is a liability. Junior Dos Santos landed a big shot on him with his head cockeyed. I can’t rationalize how that is good, but it works for him.

Stefan Struve is 7' with an 84" reach, he fights out of Team Schreiber in the Netherlands. I thought I remember Struve retiring in his last fight but I guess he’s back. The biggest thing that stands out to me with Struve is his terrible takedown defense. He’s 7' tall and it’s hard to coordinate all those limbs to have a good relationship with gravity. For a 7' fighter with a reach almost as long as Jon Jones’ reach, his opponents dictate the pace of the fight. It looks like Struve is working on fighting behind a jab, but it hasn’t been tremendously effective. There isn’t a tremendous amount of output in Struve’s game which is concerning. It’s almost like Struve is thinking way too much when he fights. I have a buddy who was a good high school football middle linebacker, his coach literally told him to not think at all. It feels like that same advice would work for Struve. Tybura smashed him with a vicious elbow, Struve got up and starting throwing his hands like he was angry. In that burst, he looked dangerous and I thought he won that round. Struve’s length on the ground can be a real threat for a submission in top and bottom position.

Prediction

If Rothwell decides taking Struve to the ground is apart of his gameplan, I think this is a mismatch. Struve can’t stop the takedown and Rothwell is very good at jiu jitsu. Will that happen? I don’t know, Rothwell’s back seems all messed up, his cardio isn’t great so he doesn’t wrestle, and I just think Rothwell loves to walk forward like a monster, cock his head, and try to hit the balls off his opponent. I don’t see where Struve wins this fight. Rothwell will command the center of the octagon, Struve has low output, Rothwell is very capable of closing the distance and landing his right hand, and Rothwell has a good chin. I specifically don’t like the idea of a guy retiring, then unretiring to fight Ben Rothwell. I can see Rothwell backing Struve up to the fence with his forward pressure, initiating the clinch, and taking Struve to the ground to work his jiu jitsu and ground and pound for the majority of this fight. I like Rothwell winning a decision here.

Betting

When I was researching this fight I thought Ben Rothwell had every advantage, but I kept thinking, “Is Ben Rothwell a guy I’d want to put my money on?” If you are betting on one of these monsters good luck to you. I don’t want any part of this fight.

• Pass

Aspen Ladd (-165) vs. Yana Kunitskaya (+155)

Yana Kunitskaya is 5'6" with a 68.5" reach, she fights out of St. Petersburg and dates Thiago Santos. Kunitskaya is a physically imposing fighter and thrives in the clinch. She has really good judo throws, but her striking isn’t great. Kunitskaya uses her left hand almost exclusively. It makes me believe her left hand is her dominant hand and she stands orthodox to utilize the jab and look for clinching opportunities. Her striking defense can be a weakness. Cyborg is a horrible UFC debut for Kunitskaya, but Marion Reneau also hurt her with left hooks and right hands. She tries to keep her distance with teep kicks and left jabs while she looks for opportunities to clinch. Kunitskaya seems to simply just close the distance on the feet and grab her opponent as a means to initiate the clinch. I haven’t seen her off of her back and there are some significant striking defense issues, but Kunitskaya looks like a pretty good 135 lbs fighter.

Aspen Ladd is 5'6" with a 66" reach fighting out of MMA Gold Fight Team in El Dorado Hills, California. Aspen Ladd is tremendous in the ground, specifically in top position. Sijara Eubanks is a real black belt and Aspen was better on the ground. Her striking is rather rigid, she doesn’t have fluid movement but she is a willing combatant which can cause her problems. Aspen relentlessly pressure’s her opponent and her striking can be a distraction for the clinch or a double leg shot. Aspen took Herb Dean to some sort of Kangaroo Court over her knockout loss. I guess she claimed Herb stopped the fight too early because she was women. Herb Dean won the Kangaroo ruling, Herb Dean…confirmed not sexiest.

Prediction

Kunitskaya’s length and left jab, complemented with backward movement, is enough to win the stand up fight. But this will be a grappling contest. The big question I have for this fight is, how is Kunitskaya going to fair if Aspen Ladd is on top of her? I haven’t seen how Kunitskaya works off of her back and for the entirety of this write up I have restrained myself from working in a “I bet Thiago Santos is the guy to ask for that question” joke…but I’m not going to do that, The Fight Guy is better than that. But it is a very real question. Kunitskaya held Cyborg along the fence so I think she has the physicality to win the clinch with Ladd. I am only nervous about a Ladd double leg takedown. Maybe Kunitskaya is a black belt on the ground, I don’t know. I’ve only seen her frantically up kick Marion Reneau. It looks Kunitskaya lost twice to Tonya Evinger by submission, I am actually going to take a look at those fights before I make my prediction. Well, that was interesting, Kunitskaya won the 1st fight by armbar. In an attempt to gain leverage Evinger stepped on Kunitskaya’s face while in an armbar submission. As I was watching I thought, “You can’t step on her face like that.” The referee told Evinger to remove her foot from Kunitskaya’s face. Evinger obliged and was quickly submitted. It turns out you can step on someone’s face, you just can’t soccer kick an opponent’s face while they are grounded. Evinger appealed, won the appeal, and the fight was a no contest. That was interesting. I’m impressed, I didn’t expect to see Kunitskaya be as fluent with the ground game. with 2–3 years of training and Thiago helping her, she might be okay if Aspen shoots a successful double leg. I’m taking Kunitskaya here to win by decision.

Betting

Kunitskaya doesn’t have the power to finish the fight with her striking, I doubt she’s going to submit Aspen. I like Kunitskaya winning by decision at +210 in a fight filled with wall clinching.

• Kunitskaya Wins by Decision (+210) $10 to win $21

Song Yadong (-200) vs. Cody Stamann (+185)

Cody Stamann is 5'6" with a 64.5" reach, he fights out of Michigan Top Team. Stamann is a really good wrestler but he struggles to hold his opponents on the ground after he completes a takedown. Take down defense is also really good. Boxer-Wrestler is a common style in the UFC, but Stamann is a Karate-Wrestler. The man took karate as a kid and throws some sweet high kicks. His check left hook is one of his best attributes and he carries power in his right hand. With his reach, closing the distance is an obstacle in almost every fight, but Stamann is effective with his boxing. Early in his UFC career Stamann struggled with his pacing and his cardio, but now I actually think his cardio is a strength. One thing I really like about Stamann’s game is he is cognizant about winning rounds. He consistently checks the clock so he is aware of the situation throughout the fight. A lot of times he will try and put his stamp on rounds by shooting for a takedown within the last minute of a round. Very effective strategy, it’s hard to score a round to the other fighter if one guy ends the round on top.

Song Yadong is 5'6" with a 67" reach, at age 9 Song Yadong left his family to study to become a Shaolin Monk. Song Yadong is basically Lu Kang from Mortal Kombat. He now works with Team Alpha Male. I used to think wrestling was the best foundational martial art for MMA. I now think the youthful study to become a Shaolin Monk has trumped wrestling as the best foundational martial art for MMA. I haven’t been more impressed since I watched Nasrat Haqparast. This kid, and I say kid because he’s 22 years old, can fight. He’s been fighting professionally since he was like 13. His hand speed is spectacular, his striking is diverse and ferocious, his pressure is suffocating, he’s composed in the pocket, the kid has it. Felipe Arantes looked so dejected and a man that wanted to quit after the 1st round. For about 1 minute at the end of the Vince Morales fight, Yadong showed fatigue. I haven’t seen Yadong face a high level wrestler and be put on his back so there are some questions yet to be answered but this kid is good.

Prediction

I really liked Cody Stamann when I looked at his fights. But there is 0% chance I’m am predicting against a guy who left his family at age 9 to become a Shaolin Monk. How do you look yourself in the mirror when a guy who left his family at age 9 to become a Shaolin Monk KO’s the dude you predict to win the fight. You can’t say it wasn’t all there for you. I will predict there will be some demonstrative finger wagging signifying “I got you” or “No you didn’t get me there” both of these guys like the finger wagging stuff. Yadong has the reach advantage and looks to be better everywhere, but Stamann is the wrestler that will be a test for Yadong’s takedown defense. I am not sure how much wrestling is covered at the Shaolin Temple, but I know Team Alpha Male covers it, and Yadong’s wrestling will be tested. I can’t think of 2 more contrasting martial arts studies than the Shaolin Temple and Team Alpha Male. I wonder Uriah ever met Shi Yongxin to discuss Song Yadong’s training. I don’t know, but I think Yadong passes his wrestling test, Stamann has a hard time holding his opponents to the ground. If he gets a takedown can he hold Yadong down is a real question. I think Yadong wins a decision.

Betting

Of all the betting options, I like Yadong winning by decision at +250 but I can also see Stamann not getting the takedowns and Yadong’s pace wearing him down and being finished in the 3rd round. But, Yadong has showed fatigue after a jiu jitsu scramble with Morales, will he fatigue if he’s put on his back early? Screw it, I like Yadong winning by decision. If Yadong spent 3 years with Faber and can’t stuff a decent takedown attempt, Faber should shut it down.

• Song Yadong Wins by Decision (+250) $10 to win $25

Rob Font (-135) vs Ricky Simon (+125)

Rob Font is 5'8 with a 71.5" reach, he fights out of Lauzon Mixed Martial Arts. Font’s a skilled boxer. He thrives when he’s throwing high volume and using his jab complemented with his reach. One of his weaknesses is being heavy on his lead leg and susceptible to those calf kicks. Font had a serious problem with his lead leg in the Assunção fight. Font was also timid in the Assunção fight because he respected his counter striking. Inversely, Font didn’t respect Sergio Pettis’s move up to 135 lbs and was very active with that jab. Font can also be taken down by a wrestler, Assunção was 2 for 2 on takedown attempts, Font doesn't want to fight on the ground, especially on bottom. He carries power, but I’m not in love with his striking defense. Font can be hit and can be hurt by a punch, but his real weakness is the calf kick and takedown defense.

Ricky Simon is 5'6" with a 68.5" reach, he fights out of Gracie Barra Portland. That right hand that put him down in the Faber fight was not a fluke, Ricky Simon does get hit and hurt often. To his credit, he recovers every time. The other thing that stands out about Simon is his heart. The kid goes, if there’s fatigue, he fights through it, he doesn’t quit. Watch the 3rd round of the Dvalishvili fight, Ricky Simon will compete until the very end. He’s a relentless wrestler, I don’t think Simon’s top game will threaten the end of too many fights, but this kid can fatigue his opponent with his wrestling. Contrary to my, “he gets hurt a lot in fights” statement, I think he has good head movement in the pocket. That’s what I see when I watch him fight. Simon doesn’t have a tremendous amount of size for the division which forces him to play in the pocket. My biggest concern for Ricky Simon is his hair. I was so excited to see Ricky Simon fight Uriah Faber, my wife made some sort of Armenian dessert, got that in one hand, Bud Light in the other, had some sort of chip and dip situation going on and then it happened…Ricky Simon tied up his mullet. I couldn’t believe it, I knew something bad was about to happen. Ricky Simon should never tie up his mullet, not never.

Prediction

Font has a 7 inch reach advantage, and his jab is going to be effective in this fight. Simon has been hurt with a right hand in every UFC fight he has been in. Font is a boxer that can carry power. Font doesn’t have tremendous striking defense. Simon has been decent at closing the distance. The big question for this fight is, can Ricky Simon let his mullet hang or is he going to tie it up? I can’t get excited to see it again and be let down, I can’t do that to myself again. The other big question I have is, can Ricky Simon’s wrestling dictate this fight? Font doesn’t like to fight on the ground and doesn’t have tremendous takedown defense. Assunção was 2 for 2 on takedown attempts, is Simon going to have similar success? Or is Font’s boxing complemented with his massive reach advantage going to dictate the fight? I can see Font moving around the perimeter working his jab in this fight, leaving Ricky to control the octagon. I kinda think that dynamic lets Ricky make the decisions, dictate how he wants to fight. Although that last time Ricky made a decision he decided to tie up his neck curtains leaving me a disheveled mess, and him looking like a weird soccer mom. I see this fight being a very one-sided fight, I just can’t figure out which skill set is going to prevail. Font also has a legitimize weakness being heavy on that lead leg. Smaller fighters have a longer kicking range, Simon can absolutely capitalize on that. I’m taking Ricky Simon over Rob Font providing Ricky lets that gender neutral haircut hangggggg. I can see Ricky riding Font’s back and fatiguing Font to a decision victory.

Betting

Mark me down for Ricky to win at +125. I like a relentless wrestler vs. a guy who doesn’t have great takedown defense.

• Ricky Simon Wins (+125) $10 to win $12.50

Bryce “Buck” Mitchell (+110) vs. Matt Sayles (-120)

“Buck” Mitchell is 5'10" with a 70" reach, he fights out of ARKANSAS!!!!!!! And Reebok better have gotten him his CAMO shorts!!!! Wild intangibles with “Buck” Mitchell. I call him “Buck” because he once missed a napping deer with a crossbow 3 times in a row. He ran out of arrows so he jumped down from his tree stand and proceeded to murder the deer via rear naked choke. I thought he was done competing for my attention but then I ran up on this while researching this fight.

I love this guy. “Buck” is a jiu jitsu guy and he can hang with wrestlers. Wrestlers take him down and he is one of the few fighters that I have seen that I consider very dangerous off of his back. To give you an idea of who I think is very dangerous off of their back I’ll list a few: Tony Ferguson, Jason Knight, Demain Maia, maybe 1 or 2 more but Buck has skills. Every fight I’ve seen him in turns into a scramble where he threatens to finish the fight. Buck also has tremendous cardio. Those scrambling, grappling heavy fights are tough. Buck is usually the fresher guy at the end more often than not. Because Buck’s a jiu jitsu wizard, he can throw whatever the heck he wants on the feet, and he does. Buck’s dangerous on the feet specifically when he straightens his punches out instead of looping them. He tends to fight his standup moving backwards, but don’t miss Buck Mitchell’s fights, they will be entertaining.

Matt Sayles is 5'7" with a 68.5" reach, he fights out of Alliance with Dominick Cruz. Sayles is basically a wrestler boxer that has a decent right hand. His cardio looked off the charts in his UFC debut but looked bad in his most recent fight with Kyle Nelson. I thought Sayles looked really impressive in his loss to Sheymon Moraes but was disappointed with his victory over Kyle Nelson. Dominick Cruz was in his corner for his UFC debut, but Dominick Cruz doesn’t deal with losers, he didn’t show up for the Kyle Nelson fight. Kyle Nelson nearly choked Sayles out in the 2nd round which is really concerning for me heading into a fight with Buck Mitchell.

Prediction

Buck Mitchell can wrestle with wrestlers but is a jiu jitsu guy. He finds scrambles, he sweeps, Buck threatens to do stuff on the ground. My concern for this fight is Buck Mitchell’s wrestling is not good enough to take a wrestler to the ground if that wrestler wants to use his takedown defense to stand up and box. Matt Sayles I think wants to stand up and box and he is a better standup striker than Buck Mitchell. The problem I have which predicting Matt Sayles to win this fight by KO is Matt Sayles nearly got choked out by Kyle Nelson in Canada. If Kyle Nelson is under your chin and Michael Bisping is nervous the fight is about to be over, that’s concerning heading into a fight with Arkansas’ King, Buck Mitchell. I’m still predicting that Sayles wins a 3 round decision because he’s going to out punch Buck, but I’m not confident.

Betting

I’m watching this fight for enjoyment. I was all ready to recommend Sayles because I was thinking his wrestling keeps the fight standing and he wins a standing fight. But nearly being choked out by Kyle Nelson in Canada makes me weary, I’m passing on this one.

• Pass

Couldn’t get to all the fights this week. Hope to do better next week for UFC 245.